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Remember that post by Thomas Pueyo that we discussed about three weeks ago?

It contained a lot of statistics and attempts to model the further spread of the pandemics, while strongly advocating confinement (and doing it early) to flatten the curve.

There was a follow-up, about a week after, where he keeps developing a mitigation strategy called "Hammer and Dance":

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

If you hammer the coronavirus, within a few weeks you've controlled it and you're in much better shape to address it. Now comes the longer-term effort to keep this virus contained until there's a vaccine.

This is probably the single biggest, most important mistake people make when thinking about this stage: they think it will keep them home for months. This is not the case at all. In fact, it is likely that our lives will go back to close to normal.

The "Dance" part of it is a modular set of social distancing measures that could be strengthened or loosened, whose goal is to keep the virus transmission rate under 1.

Also, last week, a post specifically about the USA.

The virus has mainly affected Dem states, because large urban areas tend to be blue. But it's soon going to hit the red states. Hard. R governors are more reluctant than D governors to implement lockdowns that are the only known mechanism today to slow the spread.

And the virus is 30% more likely to kill a R voter than a D voter, solely based on age.

by Bernard on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 06:47:01 PM EST
TCovid-19 will be called the Democrats Disease because it will differentially kill off the elderly and freedom loving, social distance scorning, rule ridiculing, gun toting, religious nuts who, like Trump, think its sissy to take precautions or wear a mask.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 06:54:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Won't it also differentially kill off the smokers, who are more likely to be Democrats?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 07:02:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
wow that's an old article and the difference is tiny. More men smoke, though, and more men vote Trump...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 07:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"virus has mainly affected Dem states [sic]"
s/b cities. Period.
Population density + muni cash (read: governor political base), truly, the only factors provoking AUTHORITARIAN enforcement (read: 1. police powers 2. fines) of quarantine orders ... which have been daily, rapidly evolving over the past two wks. In MD, for example, I rarely leave house and still have whiplash.

Incidentally, disregard for homeless, custodial pops, and "nonessential" workers' (rarely union, natch) med, "self-isolating" housing, and jobless benefits is universal. London Breed's (D -Frisco) "mitigation" plan is nearly identical to Jack Young's (D-Bal'more): stack 'em in convention center "field hospitals". tbh, this "leadership" simulates normal, SOP across (R) south and mid-west where med services are dysfunctional. archived: aha.org
finite resources

Remember, March 28 UE print was 6.6M for the week, and testing kit access and distribution, rolled out 2 wks ago, is finally reaching critical mass. The story that medium chart pr0n can't touch is basic, American resistance public health, community, and welfare. The irony is, fed gov has exercised every  Holy Playbook recommendation (2014 ed.) except, iirc, National Emergencies Act; and all the exec got from Congress was CARES.

Older than dirt market solutions to every problem, regardless of factional competition in uniparty. "Live free or die" hiding in the "we."

by Cat on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 08:36:39 PM EST
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Bal'more Mayor Booker T. Young FINALLY, after two weeks ridicule and scorn, today announced "self-isolating" hotel accommodation for 160/2,000-4,000(e) shelter clients. His ass is siting on $97M budget surplus, which only (R) Gov. Larry "mag-lev" Hogan could love, while waiting for ... Godot.

ALSO county DATA VISUALIZATION in the 50 state baby CSSE. The COVID Tracking Project exploits CENSUS2010 block level data (ZIP CODE) to infer rate of infection by "race or ethnicity," ie. garden-variety US housing segregation.
< wipes tears >

Casually dropped in What the Racial Data Show

 

by Cat on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 12:27:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"poor people are dying"

by Cat on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 01:05:44 AM EST
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