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Remember that post by Thomas Pueyo that we discussed about three weeks ago?

It contained a lot of statistics and attempts to model the further spread of the pandemics, while strongly advocating confinement (and doing it early) to flatten the curve.

There was a follow-up, about a week after, where he keeps developing a mitigation strategy called "Hammer and Dance":

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance

If you hammer the coronavirus, within a few weeks you've controlled it and you're in much better shape to address it. Now comes the longer-term effort to keep this virus contained until there's a vaccine.

This is probably the single biggest, most important mistake people make when thinking about this stage: they think it will keep them home for months. This is not the case at all. In fact, it is likely that our lives will go back to close to normal.

The "Dance" part of it is a modular set of social distancing measures that could be strengthened or loosened, whose goal is to keep the virus transmission rate under 1.

Also, last week, a post specifically about the USA.

The virus has mainly affected Dem states, because large urban areas tend to be blue. But it's soon going to hit the red states. Hard. R governors are more reluctant than D governors to implement lockdowns that are the only known mechanism today to slow the spread.

And the virus is 30% more likely to kill a R voter than a D voter, solely based on age.

by Bernard on Mon Apr 6th, 2020 at 06:47:01 PM EST

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