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Ireland's infection peak may have passed, toll could hit 400 by August, report forecasts
Ireland has passed its peak of Covid-19 infections but can expect more than 400 deaths by August, according to forecasts based on new international modelling data published on Tuesday.

Peak resource use of hospital and ICU beds passed on April 4th, while peak deaths passed on April 6th, according to the data published by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US.

The research looks at the predicted spread and impact of coronavirus in 29 European countries and assumes social distancing measures will remain in place until August.

It predicts there will be more than 150,000 deaths in Europe during the "first wave" of the pandemic.


The study predicts 66,300 deaths in the UK, the highest in Europe. The UK's use of bed resources is predicted to peak on April 17th and its deaths on April 20th.

It says the peak of the pandemic has passed in many European countries, including Spain, Italy and France, where 19,209, 20,300 and 15,058 deaths are predicted, respectively.

"It is unequivocally evident that social distancing can, when well implemented and maintained, control the epidemic, leading to declining death rates," said IHME director Dr Christopher Murray.

"Those nations hit hard early on implemented social distancing orders and may have the worst behind them as they are seeing important progress in reducing their death rates. Each nation's trajectory will change - and dramatically for the worse - if people ease up on social distancing or relax other precautions.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Apr 7th, 2020 at 12:46:22 PM EST

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