Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
So how will things play out? Very difficult to know, but my best guess at the moment is along these lines:

The 33rd. Dail, elected last February,  won't succeed in electing a new Taoiseach and government because far too many of the TDs and parties want to be in opposition rather than government. Eventually the current FG led government will simply run out of road and will call new elections to sort out the impasse.

The electorate will then give short shrift to any independents/parties that didn't help to form a government and will insist on knowing who will work with who to form a government next time around. Michael Martin insisting he won't work with SF will disqualify him as a potential Taoiseach. It will be Varadkar vs. Mary Lou and the outcome will depend on how well Varadkar does in the meantime.

Everyone will be shit scared they will be required to bear the cost of the prolonged lockdown. The government will drop its support for the Apple Appeal and hope they get the €13 billion windfall sooner rather than later. In the meantime borrowing will go through the roof - which won't be a problem until interest rates start to rise.

The IT, Pharma, Med Tech and Fintech industries will grow rapidly and bail the economy out, to a large degree, but it could take years. Tourism will never quite be the same again. China will supercede the US as the world's dominant economy. The EU will be given increased competencies in healthcare, procurement, disaster management and essential product/services security and self sufficiency. Everyone outside the EU will have to fend for themselves. A new hard edged realism will pervade much of politics. It won't be pretty.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Apr 4th, 2020 at 11:08:03 PM EST
I don't see that happening until the current batch of politicians are kicked out and a new bunch comes in to run the place.

My guess: get ready for a repeat of the 1930s as Neo-liberalism fails into Fascism.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 5th, 2020 at 02:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series