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I don't see how the Dems won't get a lot fewer than last time and Sander's ability to sheepdog his supporters back into the fold is also strongly diminished. Let's see if those moderate anti Trump Republicans really exist.
by generic on Wed Apr 8th, 2020 at 06:28:32 PM EST
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The US electorate has a much better understanding of what a Trump presidency entails now than they did in November, 2016. Rachael Bitcofer is predicting that Trump will lose and that the Democrats will start election night with more than 270 sure votes before the polls close. Hope she is right. She predicted a large turnout.

A poll now shows Biden beating Trump in Florida. If Trump loses Florida it is virtually game over/landslide for the Democrats. But, of course, with Biden as POTUS we cannot expect too much change, regardless of what the electorate wants.


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Apr 8th, 2020 at 06:56:12 PM EST
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Honestly, I have to retract my earlier statement. Without the pandemic I would bet on a second Trump term without hesitation, but I don't think anyone can predict how this will turn out. As I wrote earlier, bungled catastrophes tend to work out OK for the incumbent in the good old USA and being a demented racist hasn't stopped anyone from getting a second term yet. So good news for Joe if he makes it. On the other hand, most of those catastrophes have been some mixture of fake and extremely localized and the only thing that didn't happen exclusively on the TV for most people, the Greta Recession, lead to a change of the guard.
by generic on Wed Apr 8th, 2020 at 07:14:12 PM EST
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