France Municipal Elections: The Aftermath - Part 2 | 8 comments (8 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

There goes the crowd (none / 0)

There goes the crowd, I am their leader, therefore I must follow... (Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin - probably apocryphal)

So despite the decline of the far right and the rise of the Greens, Macron feels the need to swing right to ward off the challenge of Le Pen?

That doesn't say much for his opinion of the collective forces of the left.

And if there is no such thing as police brutality, can a policeman ever be charged with a crime? That seems to be a page out of the Trump manual as if Black lives matter had never happened.

Brexit and the far right response to Covid seems to have undermined their support and yet Macron is more worried about them? pity their left couldn't get their act together under one candidate for the Presidential election.

At least Macron seems to be playing a more positive role within the EU. I expect him to use Brexit to shore up his position in France by taking a hard line against Perfidious Albion.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Aug 10th, 2020 at 12:00:06 AM EST

Re: There goes the crowd (4.00 / 2)

At least Macron seems to be playing a more positive role within the EU. I expect him to use Brexit to shore up his position in France by taking a hard line against Perfidious Albion.

Mr. Macron may too busy meddling in the Mediterranean: Macron rebuilding Lebanon or Macron wants sanctions on Turkey.

There is a serious tension building up in the Mediterranean with Turkey pushing into Syria and Libya, while France, Greece, Cyprus and Egypt are moving to stop this. At least the Libya and oil/gas drilling part.

by pelgus on Mon Aug 10th, 2020 at 11:03:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There goes the crowd (4.00 / 3)

Macron apparently believes the main challenge to be coming from the right: LR and RN, rather than the left which is still fragmented and not perceived as a danger - not even the Greens at this point. So he's encroaching onto the LR territory to be the only alternative to the extreme right, since he's unlikely to attract voters from the left: that's the word on the street.

by Bernard (bernard) on Mon Aug 10th, 2020 at 08:59:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There goes the crowd (none / 1)

That would make sense if he sees his main first round challenge coming from LR. Every vote he takes from them is worth two as it decreases their vote and increases his. However he will also need some soft left votes for the second round against - presumably - Le Pen. So he should avoid antagonising the left unduly - unless he thinks his liberal/centrist vote will be sufficient to defeat Le Pen without soft left support.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Aug 11th, 2020 at 01:21:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There goes the crowd (4.00 / 2)

There have been only two instances of presidential second rounds with the extreme right: J.Chirac vs. JM.Le Pen in 2002 (Chirac won with 80%) and E.Macron vs. Marine Le Pen in 2017 (Macron won with 67%).

In each case, many left voters cast their ballot holding their nose, but with a clear aim to prevent a Le Pen from getting to the Élysée. Hence, the outsized scores, much higher than "regular" left-right presidential races.

Macron is obviously betting that, like in 2017, the left voters detestation of the extreme right will surpass their detestation of Macron's LREM. This is a risky gambit and many things may happen in the next two years.

by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Aug 11th, 2020 at 05:28:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

France Municipal Elections: The Aftermath - Part 2 | 8 comments (8 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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