I seem to be in a minority here in thinking this could run and run and in not expecting any UK climbdown in the next few years. Yes, relations with the EU could deteriorate fast. I expect a trade war.

Yes the UK economy could be severely damaged, with Ireland surprisingly resilient in the circumstances, and not the weakest link in the EU chain as Brexiteers seem to expect.

Yes N. Ireland could be de-stabilised and momentum for Scottish independence grow. But Boris can refuse referendums in Scotland and N. Ireland, and he has a solid majority of loyalists to ride out any storms. Most of the "moderates" in the Conservative party were weeded out at the last election.

The tabloids will sell any EU setbacks as major British victories, and any UK depression as a necessary transition to a brave new world. The sunny uplands of FREEDOM will always be just around the corner.

The Tories will lose the next election, but that could be over four years away. And by then a lot of irreversible changes will have taken place, and Labour will be complicit in a lot of it, and not actually offer a way back.

This divorce is for keeps, and it will be a long and bitter one.

Index of Frank's Diaries