Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

The British calculation is that member states will be united in making a fuss in public but much less aggressive in practice. London believes that the Irish and French are isolated and that the Dutch, Germans and Poles will oppose any suspension of the UK-EU trade deal.

While it is true that persisting Brexit issues create the risk of "Irish fatigue" -- something that Dublin is acutely aware of -- the UK government's assessment of potential EU splits is mistaken.

First, its characterisation of the German and Dutch position is simply wrong. Second, Poland understands that it cannot expect the EU's support over its borders with Belarus and not support Ireland over its border issues with the UK.


Brussels and member states are also exploring more subtle, legally creative ways to strike immediately against the UK, without waiting months for arbitration or a European Court of Justice ruling. This could involve tariffs on sensitive UK goods, putting London under pressure to respond in kind. An explosion might be difficult to control.

I have seen a lot of that "French/Dutch isolated in EU" stuff in the British English press. Heck, even within the supposedly pan-European Politico.eu, the London based staff doesn't have the same reading as the Brussels based one about possible EU retaliation, should the UK pull the trigger on article 16.

But the EU institutions and meetings are in Brussels, not London. And the EU has proven to be strongly united in the face of an existential threat.

by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Nov 17th, 2021 at 06:58:04 PM EST
Dogger Bank: UK Picking a Fight with Denmark

What is the real deal with fisheries, sustainability and Dogger Bank??

'Sapere aude'

by Oui (Oui) on Wed Nov 17th, 2021 at 08:32:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When I look at Swedish papers, Brexit is pretty much gone as a topic. Searching for news articles relating to Brexits gives most hits weeks or months ago. The North Ireland tussle is possibly mentioned in a small article at the bottom of page 14.

Why would the Swedish cabinet - busy with lots of things more interesting and important than the already over and done with Brexit - spend any time or political capital on arguing against the countries within the EU that actually has reasons to have strong opinions on this? I would be surprised if this didn't go for most EU states.

by fjallstrom on Tue Nov 23rd, 2021 at 09:51:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What most Brits, brexiters and remainers alike, fail to understand is that Brexit is no longer front page issue in the EU. The main pan-European focus for the past weeks has been the situation at the Belarusian border; plus the new wave of COVID picking up throughout the continent.

The main exception would be the Republic of Ireland, because of the NI issue, and the fishing communities from France to Denmark, that have seen their fishing licenses taken away. But fishing is 0.06% of French GDP, so it's not going to get the full focus of the French cabinet either.

by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Nov 24th, 2021 at 05:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Except if Macron needs a boost in the polls to see off his far right nationalist opponents. Then he can blow up the fishing issue as if Franc's pride and dignity is at stake: 0.06% of GDP or 6%, it hardly matters, except that at 0.06%, it is a low cost almost risk free way of playing the strong man. Equally France can feel virtuous sticking up for poor little Ireland, and give the Rosbifs one in the eye at the same time.

Boris is playing a dangerous game poking the EU bear.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Nov 24th, 2021 at 10:29:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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