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However, if CDU does a bit worse GroKo is out and if Linke misses 5% Red-Green-Red is out. Traffic lights is the most stable combination numbers wise, but might be less stable considering political content. Kenya consisting of the three largest parties is stale numbers wise, but I think would have lots of internal tension.
Thanks for the write-up, we will see tomorrow!
I don't think I really understood it :-) besides the fact this is a mix of proportional system and FPTP consistency based voting.
The interesting thing is also that the total number of seats is variable too: even though the nominal number of seats is 598, the current 19th Bundestag has a total of 709 members, making it the largest Bundestag to date (Wiki).
This may have an impact on the number of seats required to reach a majority? In that case, the current Bundestag majority would be 355 votes instead of 300.
Running seats/votes for the last election gives 7.46-7.53 seats per percentage of the vote with the slight advantage going to the smallest parties. So unless things are very even I think one can count with the percentages. If percentages in votes matches percentages in polls is another question.
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