Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I like to make predictions, based on what data I have, if only to learn that I have to change my expectations if circumstances change. I have no problem with being proved wrong, but it is useful to draw logical conclusions on what information you have. I have no time for the kind of "maybe this, or maybe that" kind of analysis which can never be proved to have been based on faulty assumptions. It doesn't add to anyone's understanding or learning process.

Irish based aircraft leasing firms are having to write off billions on planes now re-registered as Russian and the refugee influx is budgeted to cost billions this year. That is real money for a small country! In addition Russian based ransomware cyberattacks on the Irish health service cost millions and possibly a few lives. The government has already legislated to nullify planning permission for a major expansion of intelligence gathering facilities at the 4 acre (nearly 2 hectare) Russian embassy compound near the middle of Dublin, and you can expect a much more robust response to Russian Ambassador Filatov's many provocative comments in the Irish media in the future.

I have argued elsewhere that the Ukraine crisis has already done much to improve the EU sense of cohesion and common purpose. Even unionists in N. Ireland may be beginning to learn that the Protocol is not the no. 1 EU priority just now.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Mar 30th, 2022 at 10:24:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's how you and I are different (and there's nothing wrong with that). It doesn't mean I cannot make predictions too, maybe not in the same areas.

Some of the trends I see emerging:

Just like you mentioned: European unity, like like after Brexit, but ten times bigger. Nothing like being scared by the bombardments and shellings just across your border to focus the minds.

Europe excessive dependence on imported fossil energy: a hundred years ago, most of the energy use was coal extracted in Europe. Our vulnerability is now obvious. Energy independence and a faster move to renewables is not only a "green" plan but now a matter of national security.

Defense spending: this will increase, to the detriment of other budgets and priorities. Love it or loathe it, NATO is no longer perceived as "brain dead" and countries like Finland are seriously considering joining it. Others may follow.

Wandel durch Handel is dead; at least for now. Anyone else has noticed how Merkel's name is conspicuously absent from political debates?

"Russian" populations in Ukraine: just like French speaking Walloons in Belgium or Valaisans in Switzerland are not French, Russian-speaking Ukrainians are not Russians, whatever Putin says. Ukrainians, from the East as well as from the West are not ready to forgive Russians for having their army invading and destroying their country. The enmity will last a long time.

Russian demography was not boding well for Russia's future already, and this war is killing out a large number of prime age young people: mainly from small towns and peripheral "ethnic" republics. And urban professionals are also leaving Russia in large numbers. This won't have an immediate effect, but it is leading to an inevitable decline.

Taiwan: Beijing will think long and hard about "military options" for absorbing Taiwan, as the Ukrainian war has reminded everybody this is never a cakewalk.

by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Mar 30th, 2022 at 08:22:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The prospect of Ukraine as enthusiastic new entrants the EU seems like an excellent thing; the question is cohesion. What will be the effect on the national-populists all over Europe?

First test : elections in Hungary. It looks pretty close, and the war doesn't seem to have had an obvious impact, which is interesting.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Mar 31st, 2022 at 02:07:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another list of polls

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Mar 31st, 2022 at 02:18:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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