I like to make predictions, based on what data I have, if only to learn that I have to change my expectations if circumstances change. I have no problem with being proved wrong, but it is useful to draw logical conclusions on what information you have. I have no time for the kind of "maybe this, or maybe that" kind of analysis which can never be proved to have been based on faulty assumptions. It doesn't add to anyone's understanding or learning process.

Irish based aircraft leasing firms are having to write off billions on planes now re-registered as Russian and the refugee influx is budgeted to cost billions this year. That is real money for a small country! In addition Russian based ransomware cyberattacks on the Irish health service cost millions and possibly a few lives. The government has already legislated to nullify planning permission for a major expansion of intelligence gathering facilities at the 4 acre (nearly 2 hectare) Russian embassy compound near the middle of Dublin, and you can expect a much more robust response to Russian Ambassador Filatov's many provocative comments in the Irish media in the future.

I have argued elsewhere that the Ukraine crisis has already done much to improve the EU sense of cohesion and common purpose. Even unionists in N. Ireland may be beginning to learn that the Protocol is not the no. 1 EU priority just now.

Index of Frank's Diaries