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That's how you and I are different (and there's nothing wrong with that). It doesn't mean I cannot make predictions too, maybe not in the same areas.

Some of the trends I see emerging:

Just like you mentioned: European unity, like like after Brexit, but ten times bigger. Nothing like being scared by the bombardments and shellings just across your border to focus the minds.

Europe excessive dependence on imported fossil energy: a hundred years ago, most of the energy use was coal extracted in Europe. Our vulnerability is now obvious. Energy independence and a faster move to renewables is not only a "green" plan but now a matter of national security.

Defense spending: this will increase, to the detriment of other budgets and priorities. Love it or loathe it, NATO is no longer perceived as "brain dead" and countries like Finland are seriously considering joining it. Others may follow.

Wandel durch Handel is dead; at least for now. Anyone else has noticed how Merkel's name is conspicuously absent from political debates?

"Russian" populations in Ukraine: just like French speaking Walloons in Belgium or Valaisans in Switzerland are not French, Russian-speaking Ukrainians are not Russians, whatever Putin says. Ukrainians, from the East as well as from the West are not ready to forgive Russians for having their army invading and destroying their country. The enmity will last a long time.

Russian demography was not boding well for Russia's future already, and this war is killing out a large number of prime age young people: mainly from small towns and peripheral "ethnic" republics. And urban professionals are also leaving Russia in large numbers. This won't have an immediate effect, but it is leading to an inevitable decline.

Taiwan: Beijing will think long and hard about "military options" for absorbing Taiwan, as the Ukrainian war has reminded everybody this is never a cakewalk.

by Bernard (bernard) on Wed Mar 30th, 2022 at 08:22:52 PM EST
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