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"In Russland ist so ziemlich alles schiefgelaufen, wovor schon im 19. Jahrhundert gewarnt wurde"

Because of the Ukraine war, the West has recently imposed extensive sanctions on Russia. Russia is reacting to this by attempting import substitution under the direction of state planning. How promising do you think this strategy is? 

Everything will depend on how long the West can endure the sanctions, which are painful for it too, and whether Russia is really isolated globally, or whether other structures based on the division of labor will gradually emerge. It would be fatal for the West if it had to bear the negative consequences of the sanctions while Russia found new buyers, suppliers and customers. The Russian goal of improving its productivity data with Western cooperation and financing this with the earnings from raw material exports has certainly ended up in a dead end. Another question is therefore whether the country can achieve the necessary productivity improvements elsewhere. However, it is probably too early to judge that. 

How great do you assess the risk that Russia, under Putin's rule and the sanctions pressure from the West, will revert to a Soviet-style planned economy, despite all the negative experiences of the past? 

I consider the danger to be very small, since the functional problems of the old Soviet economy have by no means been forgotten in Russia. If relevant circles there are indeed dreaming of the old Soviet Union, they should be aware that its demise was largely self-inflicted.

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Wed Aug 31st, 2022 at 09:16:05 PM EST

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