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2019 CIGRE export plan
"Very glad to announce that as of today, Ukraine can export electricity to the EU market. It will provide an additional source of electricity for the EU. And much-needed revenues to Ukraine. So we both benefit."[vdL tweet, June 30,2022]

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VZ | How Ukraine will freeze, 7 Oct

Energy Mathematics

According to Ukrainian media estimates, since 2014 Ukraine has lost 33% of energy generation (in the territories controlled by Russia). Ukraine lost 10 power plants in 2014-2015, another 17 in 2022. Zaporizhzhya NPP certainly stands out among them. But that doesn't mean the rest aren't worth considering. For example, Zaporizhzhya TPP (Energodar) has an installed capacity of more than 3,500 MW and can potentially produce 23-25 ​​billion kWh (the annual plan for ZNPP for 2022 was 37 billion kWh). In other words, the loss of Energodar is a hole that Ukraine physically has nothing to close and which will largely determine the problems of the Ukrainian winter of 2022/23.

Ukraine lost another 4% of electricity generation as a result of hostilities from February to September ( estimated [23 Sep] by the National Council for the Reconstruction of Ukraine). However, it is obvious that these data do not take into account the attacks on the energy infrastructure that were inflicted on September 11-12 (Kharkovskaya CHPP-5, Zmievskaya CHPP, Pavlodarskaya CHPP-3, Kremenchugskaya CHPP). In general, the damage and reduction in the capacity of the energy system looks monstrous for Ukraine and it is not entirely clear how, against this background, Zelensky manages to sell electricity to Europe.

But, firstly, sales will soon stop, which Zelensky has already warned Europe about : "We will not have enough volume to heat our homes, and this time is approaching." Secondly, the energy system of Ukraine is losing capacity simultaneously with a decrease in consumption. At the beginning of October, there were 4.2 million Ukrainian citizens in the EU who received the status of temporary protection. According to GMK Center's spring assessment , WBO has reduced electricity consumption by 40%. Then it recovered, but even at the end of August it was 30% lower than last year's figures.
Yury Korolchuk, an expert at the Institute for Energy Strategies, urges people to be prepared for five-six-hour rolling blackouts. But rolling blackouts for Ukraine are not new, but the realities of the last few years. Moreover, this year firewood (of which 7-7.5 million cubic meters are going to be stored) began to appear in reports on the procurement of fuel for the winter, and the mayor of Lviv said back in August that the city was buying potbelly stoves and storing fuel for them.
What about gas? In the summer, Naftogaz asked [July] for several billion dollars to purchase 5-7 billion cubic meters of gas in order to bring reserves to 19 billion cubic meters. But there was no money for this - and by now only 14 billion cubic meters have been accumulated.

On the one hand, the situation here is approximately the same as with electricity: consumption is falling. Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Lugansk[,] and Kharkiv regions are either completely written off the balance sheet, or supplies to them will be cut to a minimum. "In most cities of Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Chernihiv regions[,] and Zaporozh* there will be no heating. There will be no gas in winter, there will be electricity periodically," such a frightening forecast was published in the Legitimny Telegram channel. ... The Delo publication publishes news [6 Oct], the essence of which is that Naftogaz is delaying the conclusion of gas supply agreements with gas distribution companies in the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. ...

by Cat on Mon Oct 10th, 2022 at 08:49:26 PM EST

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