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The Kyiv Security Compact International Guarantees for Ukraine: Recommendations, 9 pp (EN)
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances [1994] proved worthless. No sufficiently robust, legally and politically binding measures were in place to deter Russian aggression. Unless Ukraine is provided with unique and effective security guarantees - embedded in an eventual peace process - there is no reason to believe that this will not happen again. Ukraine is on the path to EU membership and as a future EU member will benefit from the EU's own mutual defence clause. Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO and benefit from its mutual defence arrangements is safeguarded in its Constitution [sic]. This aspiration is the sovereign decision of Ukraine. Both NATO and EU membership will significantly bolster Ukraine's security in the long-term. However, Ukraine needs security guarantees now.
KEY RECOMMENDATION$ • The strongest security guarantee for Ukraine lies in its capacity to defend itself against an aggressor under the UN Charter's article 51. To do so, Ukraine needs the resources to maintain a significant defensive force capable of withstanding the Russian Federation's armed forces and paramilitaries. • This requires a multi-decade effort of sustained investment in Ukraine's defence industrial base, scalable weapons transfers and intelligence support from allies, intensive training missions and joint exercises under the European Union and NATO flags. • The security guarantees will be positive; they lay out a range of commitments made by a group of guarantors, together with Ukraine. They need to be binding based on bilateral agreements, but brought together under a joint strategic partnership document - called the Kyiv Security Compact. • The Compact will bring a core group of allied countries together with Ukraine. This could include the US, UK, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, and Nordic, Baltic, Central and Eastern European countries. A broader group of international partners including Japan [!], South Korea [!], among others, should also support a set of non-military guarantees based on sanctions. It would include snapback sanctions ["evergreen" TOU], which are automatically re-applied in case of further Russian aggression. A legal framework should be developed which will allow authorities to seize the property of the aggressor, its sovereign funds and reserves, and the assets of its citizens and entities on the sanctions list. The funds raised should be directed to repair the war damage inflicted on Ukraine. The guarantees framework may be supplemented by additional agreements, dealing with specific issues not covered in the layers of guarantees discussed in this document. It may include an agreement, or set of agreements, between Ukraine and countries producing anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense equipment to provide Ukraine with modern and effective air defense and anti-missile defense systems in sufficient quantity to ensure a "closed sky" from air attacks. The package of guarantees may additionally include regional agreements on the Black Sea [FKA Montreux] with Turkey and other littoral states like Romania and Bulgaria.
A broader group of international partners including Japan [!], South Korea [!], among others, should also support a set of non-military guarantees based on sanctions. It would include snapback sanctions ["evergreen" TOU], which are automatically re-applied in case of further Russian aggression. A legal framework should be developed which will allow authorities to seize the property of the aggressor, its sovereign funds and reserves, and the assets of its citizens and entities on the sanctions list. The funds raised should be directed to repair the war damage inflicted on Ukraine.
The guarantees framework may be supplemented by additional agreements, dealing with specific issues not covered in the layers of guarantees discussed in this document. It may include an agreement, or set of agreements, between Ukraine and countries producing anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense equipment to provide Ukraine with modern and effective air defense and anti-missile defense systems in sufficient quantity to ensure a "closed sky" from air attacks.
The package of guarantees may additionally include regional agreements on the Black Sea [FKA Montreux] with Turkey and other littoral states like Romania and Bulgaria.
A. SECURITY GUARANTEES - COMMITMENTS BY A CORE GROUP OF GUARANTORS REGARDING UKRAINE'S SELF-DEFENCE CAPABILITIES AND CAPACITIES TO DETER AN ATTACK CONCEPT AND PRINCIPLES [...] The guarantees must not constrain Ukraine to limit the size or strength of its armed forces. Nor should they be drawn in exchange for a specific status, such as neutrality, or put other obligations or restraints on Ukraine. With those guarantees, Ukraine will sustain its capacity to ensure its self-defence. Their aim is to strengthen Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty, and political independence within its internationally recognized borders. The guarantees should also support Ukraine's commitment to continuing democratic reforms, as specified in the European Council Conclusions of June 23-24, 2022 on granting Ukraine EU candidate status. Effective security for Ukraine is closely related to a modern society that guarantees its citizens their fundamental rights....
CONCEPT AND PRINCIPLES [...] The guarantees must not constrain Ukraine to limit the size or strength of its armed forces. Nor should they be drawn in exchange for a specific status, such as neutrality, or put other obligations or restraints on Ukraine. With those guarantees, Ukraine will sustain its capacity to ensure its self-defence. Their aim is to strengthen Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty, and political independence within its internationally recognized borders. The guarantees should also support Ukraine's commitment to continuing democratic reforms, as specified in the European Council Conclusions of June 23-24, 2022 on granting Ukraine EU candidate status. Effective security for Ukraine is closely related to a modern society that guarantees its citizens their fundamental rights....
"This is definitely not an alternative to Ukraine's course toward NATO membership, 100 percent. Because it (Euro-Atlantic integration - ed.), first of all, is in our Constitution and, of course, it is for the time being, while Ukraine is not a member of NATO," Yermak said....
To achieve thi$$$, Ukraine will need the group of international guarantors to: Provide financial aid and direct investments, including through future reconstruction instruments, to support the national defence budget, as well as ensuring financial assistance (including non-repayable grants) to restore the infrastructure of Ukraine, which was destroyed or damaged by military actions. Allocate reconstruction funds, including non-repayable financial assistance, towards supporting and building Ukraine's new national defence industrial base. Offer technology transfers and arms export. Coordinate closely among each other to supply capabilities, military equipment, ammunition, and services. Establish regular training exercises to Ukrainian forces. Establish a cooperation program on cyber defence and security; and countering cyber threats. An enhanced intelligence cooperation, including frequent sharing of intelligence and establishing a regular cooperation between the intelligence services of Ukraine and guarantor states.
In a new blueprint for a postwar order, several countries are to guarantee Ukraine's security as a precursor to NATO membership. Russia has expressed its disapproval in no uncertain terms. John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the US National Security Council, said he had seen a shift in momentum after Ukrainian forces recaptured vast areas in the northeast around the city of Kharkiv in recent days.
John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the US National Security Council, said he had seen a shift in momentum after Ukrainian forces recaptured vast areas in the northeast around the city of Kharkiv in recent days.
Others are more skeptical. Eberhard Zorn, inspector general of the Bundeswehr, the German army, sees at best "counterattacks that can be used to win back towns or individual sections of the front, but not to push Russia back on a broad front," as he told German news magazine Focus on Saturday. From its recent position of relative strength, the Ukrainian leadership has now presented a security concept for the postwar period.....
Eberhard Zorn, inspector general of the Bundeswehr, the German army, sees at best "counterattacks that can be used to win back towns or individual sections of the front, but not to push Russia back on a broad front," as he told German news magazine Focus on Saturday.
From its recent position of relative strength, the Ukrainian leadership has now presented a security concept for the postwar period.....
Ukriform | Zelensk* five points of peace formula, 22 Sep
"All five items of our formula - punishment for aggression, protection of life, restoration of security and territorial integrity, security guarantees and determination to defend oneself - this is the formula of crime and punishment, which is already well known to Russia," he said. The only thing missing from this formula is neutrality, he added. "Those who speak of neutrality, when human values and peace are under attack, mean something else. They talk about indifference. Everyone for themselves - here is what they say," the president explained. "This is what creates the conditions for war."
The only thing missing from this formula is neutrality, he added. "Those who speak of neutrality, when human values and peace are under attack, mean something else. They talk about indifference. Everyone for themselves - here is what they say," the president explained. "This is what creates the conditions for war."
US Soldiers in Izium
"Hey boys, where are we? Izium." 'Sapere aude'
Official Russian cheer-leading cannot admit being possibly defeated by their "colonials"; nothing new: back in the 1950s, France couldn't admit being defeated by the Vietnamese and the Algerians; yet this is precisely what happened. Russia's colonial empire is following the same path.
All over Russian state TV, propagandists have been painstakingly painting the picture that Russian troops retreated after battling NATO--not Ukraine. One pundit made fun of the transparent plot to make Russia's defeats seem less humiliating, angering the Kremlin's mouthpieces. pic.twitter.com/6gEh6hpiey— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 16, 2022
All over Russian state TV, propagandists have been painstakingly painting the picture that Russian troops retreated after battling NATO--not Ukraine. One pundit made fun of the transparent plot to make Russia's defeats seem less humiliating, angering the Kremlin's mouthpieces. pic.twitter.com/6gEh6hpiey
LAUNCH IT FOR THE LEGION. HELP UKRAINE & AMERICA! Heading home fm war for new book tour 12-20 July in NY/DC/PHL/SF/LA to talk about Trumps war on America. Lets be #1 on NYT bestsellers list & help sell 10k by 12 July! Help NOW by preordering YOURS below. https://t.co/pS4E9ce2vY— Malcolm Nance (@MalcolmNance) June 29, 2022
LAUNCH IT FOR THE LEGION. HELP UKRAINE & AMERICA! Heading home fm war for new book tour 12-20 July in NY/DC/PHL/SF/LA to talk about Trumps war on America. Lets be #1 on NYT bestsellers list & help sell 10k by 12 July! Help NOW by preordering YOURS below. https://t.co/pS4E9ce2vY
@MalcolmNance, they are infatuated with you.— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 16, 2022
@MalcolmNance, they are infatuated with you.
Police have arrested the man responsible for assaulting two Ukrainian women in France. While the man was initially believed to be Russian, a press release by the prosecutor in Nice on Wednesday has revealed the assailant is in fact a former Ukrainian soldier. [...] On Tuesday, French police arrested a man who had confessed to attacking the two women. He turned out to be a 33-year-old man who had arrived in France seven months ago after having previously served in the Ukrainian military. Police say the man admitted assaulting the women, but downplayed the severity of his attack and insisted he merely "slapped" them, as reported by the 20 Minutes news outlet. The Ukrainian also stated that he thought the women he attacked were Russian nationals because of their "Russian accent."
Note du 16 septembre : Le procureur de Nice Xavier Bonhomme a indiqué dans un communiqué publié le 14 septembre que l'agresseur avait été interpellé et interrogé en garde à vue. Présenté au départ comme une Russe, il serait en réalité d'origine ukrainienne. L'homme a reconnu les violences en les minimisant et sera jugé le 17 novembre 2022 par le tribunal correctionnel pour des faits de « violence en raison de la race, de l'ethnie ou de la religion ». Il encourt jusqu'à trois ans de prison et 45 000 euros d'amende.
Putin's Man in the Far East Dies in Bizarre Fall From Boat
A Russian executive tasked with helping to oversee development in the country's Far East died in a bizarre fall from a moving boat just days after attending an economic forum with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ivan Pechorin's death was confirmed by the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation, where he had served as aviation director. The corporation has been tasked by the Russian government with developing resources in the Far East and Arctic. Pechorin was reportedly in charge of developing aviation accessibility in the Far East by modernizing airport infrastructure and constructing new runways, among other things.
Ivan Pechorin's death was confirmed by the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation, where he had served as aviation director. The corporation has been tasked by the Russian government with developing resources in the Far East and Arctic. Pechorin was reportedly in charge of developing aviation accessibility in the Far East by modernizing airport infrastructure and constructing new runways, among other things.
In Russia you can die falling 5 floors from a basement window. https://t.co/UW2mjPCL00— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) September 13, 2022
In Russia you can die falling 5 floors from a basement window. https://t.co/UW2mjPCL00
Anatoly Gerashchenko, the former head of the Moscow Aviation Institute, has died after falling down the stairs at the institute. pic.twitter.com/AFgZhzbJMK— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 22, 2022
Anatoly Gerashchenko, the former head of the Moscow Aviation Institute, has died after falling down the stairs at the institute. pic.twitter.com/AFgZhzbJMK
reference Studs Terkel, Hard Times, 1986. paper and archive.org WaPoo | THE JUMPERS OF '29, Oct 1987 LOL! "The New York correspondent for one of London's sensationalist tabloids wired home that lower Broadway was clogged with corpses."
Toronto Star | The myth of post-crash pavement suicides, Jan 2009 LOL! "It's Thursday, Oct. 24, 1929: a black day in economic history. The New York Times reports that 11 speculators have taken their lives amid the onset of a market meltdown. But wait. Of those 11 suicides, none actually involved a plunge onto Wall Street. And yet..."
History101.com | Myth or fact: Did investors really jump out of windows after the 1929 stock market crash?, 24 Sep 2022 LOL!
They were confused During the stock market crash, around $50 billion US dollars were lost. Everyone was confused and devastated at the numbers, but they didn't jump out their office windows on Black Thursday. Instead, they walked around Wall Street in a state of shock. The suicide rate increased in the United States during the Great Depression, but that's across the entire nation -- not the stock investors on Black Thursday. So, where did the rumor originate? Well, there's one small truth.... The story changed over time There was one suicide during the stock market crash, but the day after Black Thursday, not on that day. It was reported by none other than Winston Churchill [!], who was visiting New York and saw a man jump out of a window of a 15-story building....
The suicide rate increased in the United States during the Great Depression, but that's across the entire nation -- not the stock investors on Black Thursday. So, where did the rumor originate? Well, there's one small truth....
The story changed over time There was one suicide during the stock market crash, but the day after Black Thursday, not on that day. It was reported by none other than Winston Churchill [!], who was visiting New York and saw a man jump out of a window of a 15-story building....
It was only minutes after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed documents on the establishment of four new regions in Russia that Zelensk* said "de facto Ukraine made its way" to the alliance. "De facto, we have already made our way to NATO. De facto, we have already proven our compatibility with the Alliance's standards. They are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our cooperation. "We trust each other, we help each other, and we protect each other. This is the Alliance," the Ukrainian leader said on Telegram. "De facto. Today, Ukraine is submitting an application to do this de jure. According to a procedure that will fit our goal to protect our entire community. In an expedited manner. We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated membership in NATO," he wrote.
"De facto, we have already made our way to NATO. De facto, we have already proven our compatibility with the Alliance's standards. They are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our cooperation.
"We trust each other, we help each other, and we protect each other. This is the Alliance," the Ukrainian leader said on Telegram.
"De facto. Today, Ukraine is submitting an application to do this de jure. According to a procedure that will fit our goal to protect our entire community. In an expedited manner. We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated membership in NATO," he wrote.
On Friday, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary Jens Stoltenberg expressed their "firm commitment" to "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine." Their statements came after the ceremony by which President Vladimir Putin signed the accession treaties of the Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizh* regions to Russia. During a phone conversation, Sullivan and Stoltenberg shared their concern about Russia's "illegitimate" attempts to annex territory from Ukraine through referendums. [...] The phone call coincides with the Ukrainian request to join NATO, which President Volodymyr Zelensk* made in response to the admission of the four regions to the Russian federation. ...
During a phone conversation, Sullivan and Stoltenberg shared their concern about Russia's "illegitimate" attempts to annex territory from Ukraine through referendums. [...] The phone call coincides with the Ukrainian request to join NATO, which President Volodymyr Zelensk* made in response to the admission of the four regions to the Russian federation. ...
...This land grab is illegal and illegitimate. NATO Allies do not, and will not, recognise any of this territory as part of Russia. We call on all states to reject Russia's blatant attempts at territorial conquest. These lands are Ukraine. Donetsk is Ukraine. Luhansk is Ukraine. Kherson is Ukraine. Zaporizhzh* is Ukraine. Just like Crimea is Ukraine. [...] NATO is not party to the conflict. But we provide support to Ukraine so it can uphold its right for self-defence, enshrined in the UN Charter. Ours is a defensive Alliance. We stand united and determined to defend and protect every NATO Ally. And every inch of Allied territory....
These lands are Ukraine. Donetsk is Ukraine. Luhansk is Ukraine. Kherson is Ukraine. Zaporizhzh* is Ukraine. Just like Crimea is Ukraine. [...] NATO is not party to the conflict. But we provide support to Ukraine so it can uphold its right for self-defence, enshrined in the UN Charter. Ours is a defensive Alliance. We stand united and determined to defend and protect every NATO Ally. And every inch of Allied territory....
Q1:[@11:22] Ukraine is seeking acelerated membership in NATO. Is that something that is possible or something you would seriously consider? SULLIVAN: The United States has been clear for decades that we support an open door policy for NATO, any decision on NATO membership is between the thirty allies and the countries aspiring to join. Right now, our view is that the best way for us to support Ukraine is through practical, on-the-ground support in Ukraine and the process in Brussels should be taken up at a different time.minval.az | "'Now we cannot accept Ukraine into NATO, this decision is made through a meeting of 30 partner countries,' he added. In addition, Stoltenberg noted that NATO would not advise Ukraine to reduce combat activity in order to avoid escalation."Q2.1: Thanks, Jake. In his speech this morning the president called the Nord Stream pipeline attack, quote, a deliberate act of sabotage [unquote], and he said now the Russians are pumping out misinformation and lies about it. Should we take that to mean, the US now believes Russia was likely responsible for the act of sabotage? SULLIVAN: Well, first, Russia has done what it frequently does: When it is responsible for something which is make accusations that it was really someone else who did it. We've seen this repeatedly over time. But the president was also clear today that there is more work to do on the investigation before the United State government is prepared to make an attribution in this case. One of the practical reasons for that is, because gas is emanating from these pipelines, the Danish authorities and other authorities involved can't actually get down to the source of the leak to do forensics on what appears to be an explosion. So we will have to wait until a combination of physical inspection, intelligence gathering, and consultation with our allies can make a definitive determination. But what we can say uniquivocally is, the suggestion Russia has made about the United States and other countries are flat out false. Russia knows they're false, but, of course, this is part of their playbook.Readovka: "The Nord Stream operator plans to fix leaks on the gas pipeline by Monday, October 3. According to a company representative, it is impossible to draw unambiguous conclusions about the timing before experts assess the scale of the consequences, writes Reuters."Q2.2: But how many countries are even capable of carrying out the kind of attack we saw with hundreds of kilograms of explosives two hundred fifty feet below the surface of the sea? SULLIVAN: Not many. And I think this is obviously an act of sabotage that took place. We believe in the neighborhood of seventy to eighty meters, two hundred thirty to two hundred seventy feet under the ocean. You know, that takes some degree of sophistication. I dont't want to get ahead of myself....
minval.az | "'Now we cannot accept Ukraine into NATO, this decision is made through a meeting of 30 partner countries,' he added. In addition, Stoltenberg noted that NATO would not advise Ukraine to reduce combat activity in order to avoid escalation."
Readovka: "The Nord Stream operator plans to fix leaks on the gas pipeline by Monday, October 3. According to a company representative, it is impossible to draw unambiguous conclusions about the timing before experts assess the scale of the consequences, writes Reuters."
Look, this is not a Snowden kind of thing. I think what he did was wrong. He went too far. He gave away too much. Unlike Snowden who was a contractor, I was in NSA. I believe in the agency. So what I'm willing to give you will be limited, but we're talking because everyone is getting the story wrong, and we have to get it right. We have to understand these new weapons. The stakes are too high. We did stuxnet. It's a fact. You know, we came so fucking close to disaster, and we're still on the edge. It was a huge, multinational, interagency operation. In the US, it was CIA, NSA, and the military Cyber Command. From Britain we used raw intel out of GCHQ. But the main partner was Israel. Over there Mossad ran the show, and the technical work was done by Unit 8200. Israel is really the key to the story. Inside The Rock, we were furious. The Israelis took our code, the delivery system, and changed it. Then, on their own, without our agreement, they just fucking launched it. 2010. Around the same time they started killing Iranian scientists. Then, they fucked up the code. Instead of hiding, the code started shutting down computers. So naturally people noticed. Because they were in a hurry, they opened Pandora's box. They let it out, then it spread all over the world. — Zero Days
Inside The Rock, we were furious. The Israelis took our code, the delivery system, and changed it. Then, on their own, without our agreement, they just fucking launched it. 2010. Around the same time they started killing Iranian scientists. Then, they fucked up the code. Instead of hiding, the code started shutting down computers. So naturally people noticed. Because they were in a hurry, they opened Pandora's box. They let it out, then it spread all over the world. — Zero Days
Nord Stream AG selskabet har informeret Energistyrelsen om, at der nu synes at være opnået et stabilt tryk på de to Nord Stream 1 rørledninger. Det tyder derved på, at udblæsningen af gas nu også er tilendebragt fra de to sidste læk.— Energistyrelsen (@Energistyr) October 2, 2022
Nord Stream AG selskabet har informeret Energistyrelsen om, at der nu synes at være opnået et stabilt tryk på de to Nord Stream 1 rørledninger. Det tyder derved på, at udblæsningen af gas nu også er tilendebragt fra de to sidste læk.
'Twas foretold! Gah bless de fish!
Fresh from the surge, I went to work at NSA in '07 in a supervisory capacity. Fort Meade. You know, I commuted to that massive complex every single day. I was in TAO-S321, "The ROC." TAO is Tailored Access Operations. It's where the NSA hackers work. Of course, we didn't call them that. On-net operators, they're the only people at NSA allowed to break in or attack on the internet. Inside TAO headquarters in the ROC, Remote Operations Center. If the US government wants to get in somewhere, it goes to the ROC. I mean, we were flooded with requests, so many that we could only do about 30% of the missions that were requested of uat one time throuth the web, but also by hijacking shipments of parts. You know, sometimes the CIA would assist in putting implants in machines, so once inside a target network, we could just watch or we could attack. We never called it stuxnet. That was the name invented by the antivirus guys. — Zero Days
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