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published 13 Sep, while the iron is HOT!

The Kyiv Security Compact International Guarantees for Ukraine: Recommendations, 9 pp (EN)

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances [1994] proved worthless. No sufficiently robust, legally and politically binding measures were in place to deter Russian aggression. Unless Ukraine is provided with unique and effective security guarantees - embedded in an eventual peace process - there is no reason to believe that this will not happen again. Ukraine is on the path to EU membership and as a future EU member will benefit from the EU's own mutual defence clause. Ukraine's aspiration to join NATO and benefit from its mutual defence arrangements is safeguarded in its Constitution [sic]. This aspiration is the sovereign decision of Ukraine. Both NATO and EU membership will significantly bolster Ukraine's security in the long-term. However, Ukraine needs security guarantees now.
< wipes tears >
KEY RECOMMENDATION$
• The strongest security guarantee for Ukraine lies in its capacity to defend itself against an aggressor under the UN Charter's article 51. To do so, Ukraine needs the resources to maintain a significant defensive force capable of withstanding the Russian Federation's armed forces and paramilitaries.
• This requires a multi-decade effort of sustained investment in Ukraine's defence industrial base, scalable weapons transfers and intelligence support from allies, intensive training missions and joint exercises under the European Union and NATO flags.
• The security guarantees will be positive; they lay out a range of commitments made by a group of guarantors, together with Ukraine. They need to be binding based on bilateral agreements, but brought together under a joint strategic partnership document - called the Kyiv Security Compact.
• The Compact will bring a core group of allied countries together with Ukraine. This could include the US, UK, Canada, Poland, Italy, Germany, France, Australia, Turkey, and Nordic, Baltic, Central and Eastern European countries.

A broader group of international partners including Japan [!], South Korea [!], among others, should also support a set of non-military guarantees based on sanctions. It would include snapback sanctions ["evergreen" TOU], which are automatically re-applied in case of further Russian aggression. A legal framework should be developed which will allow authorities to seize the property of the aggressor, its sovereign funds and reserves, and the assets of its citizens and entities on the sanctions list. The funds raised should be directed to repair the war damage inflicted on Ukraine.

The guarantees framework may be supplemented by additional agreements, dealing with specific issues not covered in the layers of guarantees discussed in this document. It may include an agreement, or set of agreements, between Ukraine and countries producing anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense equipment to provide Ukraine with modern and effective air defense and anti-missile defense systems in sufficient quantity to ensure a "closed sky" from air attacks.

The package of guarantees may additionally include regional agreements on the Black Sea [FKA Montreux] with Turkey and other littoral states like Romania and Bulgaria.

VICTORY!
A. SECURITY GUARANTEES - COMMITMENTS BY A CORE GROUP OF GUARANTORS REGARDING UKRAINE'S SELF-DEFENCE CAPABILITIES AND CAPACITIES TO DETER AN ATTACK

CONCEPT AND PRINCIPLES
[...]
The guarantees must not constrain Ukraine to limit the size or strength of its armed forces. Nor should they be drawn in exchange for a specific status, such as neutrality, or put other obligations or restraints on Ukraine. With those guarantees, Ukraine will sustain its capacity to ensure its self-defence. Their aim is to strengthen Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty, and political independence within its internationally recognized borders. The guarantees should also support Ukraine's commitment to continuing democratic reforms, as specified in the European Council Conclusions of June 23-24, 2022 on granting Ukraine EU candidate status. Effective security for Ukraine is closely related to a modern society that guarantees its citizens their fundamental rights....

Ukriform | Security guarantees are not an alternative to Ukraine's membership in NATO - Yermak
"This is definitely not an alternative to Ukraine's course toward NATO membership, 100 percent. Because it (Euro-Atlantic integration - ed.), first of all, is in our Constitution and, of course, it is for the time being, while Ukraine is not a member of NATO," Yermak said....
by Cat on Tue Sep 13th, 2022 at 05:05:35 PM EST
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