Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
oilprice | European Comission Calls For Price Cap On Russian Natural Gas, 2 Sep supply chain discipline --> zero
"I firmly believe that it is now time for a price cap on Russian pipeline gas to Europe," von der Leyen said [...] Nord Stream 1 is operating at 20% capacity

by Cat on Fri Sep 2nd, 2022 at 03:35:36 PM EST
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Politico.eu.com | Russia's energy [embargo] runs out of gas -- for now, 31 Aug omen
The price of gas on the benchmark Dutch TTF hub was trading at €239.10 per megawatt hour on Wednesday, down from €265.33 on Tuesday and well below [26 Aug] Friday's record peak of €346.52. ... The lack of a panicked market reaction to Russia shutting down Nord Stream for maintenance -- a claim that Western European politicians disputed -- doesn't mean that the Kremlin cutting off deliveries will have no consequences....
by Cat on Fri Sep 2nd, 2022 at 11:23:51 PM EST
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Politico.eu.com | Gazprom reportedly to increase transfer gas to EU via Ukraine, 3 Sep transit fees
Russia's Gazprom said on Saturday it would increase its shipments of gas to Europe via Ukraine, according to [Les Echos].
The company said it would ship some 42.7 million cubic meters of natural gas through Ukraine to Europe on Saturday, Reuters reported. Flows from the entry point at Sudzha were slightly higher compared to Friday's 41.3 million cubic meters, but that doesn't make up for the shortfall in gas that was expected to flow from Nord Stream 1
archived May 2022 Ukraine EMBARGO map
by Cat on Sat Sep 3rd, 2022 at 02:53:39 PM EST
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yahoo! Bloomberg | Stressed by Margin Calls of $1.5 Trillion - Equinor, 6 Sep cockroach alerts
"Liquidity support is going to be needed," Helge Haugane, Equinor's senior vice president for gas and power, said in an interview. The issue is focused on derivatives trading, while the physical market is functioning, he said, adding that the energy company's estimate for $1.5 trillion to prop up so-called paper trading is "conservative."
So far Germany has introduced Europe's biggest scheme to backstop companies affected by the fallout of the war in Ukraine, setting aside 7 billion euros in loans to be made available to companies facing liquidity issues. German energy giant Uniper SE last week sought an extra 4 billion euros after fully using a 9 billion-euro existing facility, while Austria extended a 2 billion-euro credit to cover the trading positions of Vienna's municipal power utility. Finland and Sweden announced a $33 billion emergency liquidity facility Sunday to backstop utilities through loans and credit guarantees.
"Power is a local, i.e. domestic, market, so in this case it would be possible to do something governments could control," Haugane said. "But the issue of a gas price cap is different, because the natural gas market is global, and hence not that easy to manage."
The European Commission is also examining measures to help with liquidity. These could include credit lines from the European Central Bank, new products as margin collateral, and temporary suspensions of derivatives markets, according to a policy background paper seen by Bloomberg News.
"I have not seen any of the major trading houses have a liquidity issue, they all managed to find lines of credits and bank facilities and they are all making more money than they have ever made," Souki said in an interview at Gastech. "For the utilities in Europe, it is a serious issue because they are buying gas that is now all of the sudden is extremely expensive, and they are regulated by their respective governments."
RT | Fall in Russia's share of EU gas disclosed
The share of Russian gas in the European Union market has plummeted from 50% to 9% since the beginning of the current year, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday....
Who is collecting premium from 90% share of EU market?
Russian gas imports by EU nations have inevitably been decreasing, Macron told a news conference following a phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He stressed that it was necessary to act against speculation on energy prices at the EU level, adding that France was in favor of putting a cap on the price of [discount] Russian pipeline gas ...
another helping of "no" cap! NO CAP!, 5 Sep
"OPEC+ agrees small oil production cut"
by Cat on Wed Sep 7th, 2022 at 03:21:26 AM EST
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by Cat on Wed Sep 7th, 2022 at 02:53:00 PM EST
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More from Habeck
Er weiß, wie man die Herzen berührt: Bundeswirtschaftsminister Robert Habeck hat heute tröstende Worte an eine Beerdigungsgesellschaft gerichtet, die sich anlässlich des Todes von Heidrun Märting (†93) versammelt hatte.

"Keine Sorge!", beruhigte der Grünen-Politiker die Trauernden. "Ihre Oma ist nicht tot, sie hat nur einfach erst mal aufgehört zu atmen."

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Sep 7th, 2022 at 03:31:57 PM EST
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by Cat on Wed Sep 7th, 2022 at 03:37:10 PM EST
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Exhibit A: Macron: France, Germany to provide each other with gas, electricity, to weather crisis, Exhibit B: Macron in favor of European mutual aid to tax 'superprofits' and avoid shortages, ...

No need to continue my search for The Missing-5-Minute Monday Morning Macron waterloo tape ...

APsplainin EU ["EMBARGO"] price cap on Russian gas, energy companies to pay, 7 Sep blood, stone

European Union countries should set a price cap on Russian natural gas and seek a "solidarity contribution" from European oil and gas companies making extraordinary profits as the war in Ukraine drives up energy costs, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday. ... She declined to recommend any price cap levels, saying that should be agreed during emergency talks among EU energy ministers Friday. The bloc's executive arm is putting a raft of proposals on the table for the ministers to discuss.
Russian pipeline gas accounted for 40% of all imported gas into Europe before Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February but now only accounts for 9%, von der Leyen [eh?]. Norway now delivers more gas to the bloc than Russia.
archived Norway does not plan to sell gas at below market price...
by Cat on Wed Sep 7th, 2022 at 06:09:30 PM EST
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vOLdEmoRT: EU suggests price cap on US LNG, 7 Sep
Brussels is examining the possibility of a price ceiling on all gas imported into the EU, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday.
< wipes tears >
"LNG is scarce and can be rerouted to different regions... We [want to] stay competitive for LNG suppliers but make sure that the prices we pay are not extraordinarily high but in a decent range," she told reporters.
< wipes tears >
EU countries mostly import the costly LNG from the US and Qatar, using it to diversify gas imports in light of
shrinking supplies from Russia. However, some analysts warn that producers might not be eager European countries if their profits are capped.
She noted that since Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine, the share of Russian pipeline gas in the EU's total imports has dropped from 40% to 9% while Norway has replaced Russia as the bloc's leading gas supplier.
archived deadlock, "divertible" contracts and stinky beggars
by Cat on Wed Sep 7th, 2022 at 08:14:13 PM EST
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Bloomberg | EU Weighs Gas [EMBARGO] Price Caps and Benchmarks to COMBAT ["shrinking"] Russian Squeeze, 5 Sep Macron Monday hot cake
The European Union is weighing new gas benchmarks and price caps as Moscow's tightening supply squeeze forces the 27-nation bloc to assess drastic measures to curb spiking energy costs.
As part of preparations for the gathering, the European Commission is also assessing options to subject the Dutch Title Transfer Facility -- the virtual gas marketplace whose main index is used for long-term contracts in Europe -- to financial supervision to avoid speculation, according to internal EU documents seen by Bloomberg News on Monday.
build back better merit order
"The price premium [op margin, net profit] between the TTF and Europe's LNG delivered ex-ship < wipes tears > indices has widened significantly bringing up questions about its representativeness as an index for linking the contracts in the whole EU-27," the commission said in the document.
As a last resort in case of supply disruption in Europe, the EU could also explore temporarily pegging the TTF to the JKM Asian benchmark as a dynamic cap. Yet that would require the use of other hubs or mechanisms to allocate gas inside Europe, the commission said in the document on benchmarks for The Wholesale Gas Market.
buh-bye OPEC. buh-bye Brent. buh-bye WTI
"In this situation, JKM would become The World Price for international gas for some time," the commission said. "The Wholesale mMarket would be therefore determined by LNG supply/demand, and not by the EU's internal bottlenecks. < wipes tears > LNG would still be attracted by the fact transport costs ["a few euros"] are lower to the EU."
< wipes tears >
In the document, the commission stressed that while Russia has already sharply reduced shipments to the EU, this option should only be considered if the bloc is ready to accept a full disruption.

"The price cap should be designed in a way that Russia finds itself worse off under a gas delivery stop than complying with the price cap," the commission said in the document. "Given that in the previous decade (2010/2020), prices of Russian gas have settled between 5 euros and 35 euros/MWh, any cap above that level would ensure that Russia would be above its marginal production costs."

EC | EU-U.S. LNG TRADE a/o Jan 2022
"Europe is currently importing around 90% of the gas it needs [...] Since the meeting of US and EU Commission Presidents in 2018, U.S. LNG exports into Europe increased by 2240%.[...]The fact is that U.S. LNG, if priced competitively, can play an important role in EU gas supply, enhancing diversification and EU energy security."
by Cat on Wed Sep 7th, 2022 at 09:11:43 PM EST
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The EU imported 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021 from Russia, including liquefied natural gas (LNG).
soooo how to cap US-LNG imports without capping US-LNG prices by Q4?
at USD 40 or EUR 40? Srsly?
S&P | Global gas-to-oil fuel switching to jump 80% as European, Asian gas prices soar, 7 Sep
"The daily physical assessment reached $71.01/MMBtu on Aug. 25, the highest level since March 7, when the benchmark hit a record-high $84.76/MMBtu."
by Cat on Thu Sep 8th, 2022 at 12:27:02 AM EST
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Politico.eu.com | Cap the cost of all gas imports to EU, Belgian PM says, 8 Sep scope adjustment
The European Union should impose a radical plan to cut the cost of energy by capping the price paid for gas imported from anywhere else in the world, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said in an interview
The Plan objective—which is not absolute elimination of EU fuel consumption and waste (Q)—has not changed. The feasible domain of EU enforcement has. Establishing an explicit boundary of rationality around the EU27 is nice, given that lingering errors in EU problem recognition d/b/a sanctions against Russian gas restrain holy free trade NORMS and indiscriminately penalize ROW.
cap only on gas imported from Russia...the [sic] mounting economic crises, fueled by Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine ...cutting gas supplied to the bloc in retaliation for sanctions imposed on Moscow by Brussels
Eurocentricity will not go quietly into the night, figuratively speaking.
Under De Croo's proposal, the cap on all [EU27] gas imports would need to be implemented in a "dynamic way" [EUR-denominated value band; See EC draft] to ensure that there was still a reason [other than "sustainable" value-add/margin/profit transactions?] for traders to sell gas [produced by "third-countries" anywhere] to Europe rather than, for example, in Asian markets.

Asian [LNG] prices are currently about half of those in Europe ["ex-post": "a few euro" freight by wght + P&I + customs FTE admin], De Croo said. If Europe sets The Price Cap 5 percent higher than [JKM] Asia [index], he explained, "all traders in the world will still continue to sell in Europe, because you they still get a price that is more attractive greater than Asia buyers can afford."

epiphany however fleeting
Earlier on Thursday, Belgium's Energy Minister Tinne Van der Straeten went even further and said Belgium would not support the Commission's plan to impose a price cap specifically on Russian gas imports.

"A cap on Russian gas only is a purely political objective," the Green politician told reporters. "I don't see the added value in that. We will not agree to this."

EC | draft electricity market emergency interventions
NB. disposition of revenue earned by renewable energy generators to maintenance of fossil fuel P&E
by Cat on Fri Sep 9th, 2022 at 02:17:16 PM EST
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APsplainin Summer of '22 brought record heat, solar power to Europe, 8 Sep
The [Ember] group said [18/]27-nation bloc generated [12.2]% of its electricity from solar power from May to August, up from 9% during the same period last year. Solar energy narrowly topped the share provided from wind [11.7%] or hydropower [11%], while coming in just below that produced from burning coal [16.5%].

Ember said that without the 99.4 terrawatt hours of electricity provided by solar, the EU would have had to buy 20 billion cubic meters of gas, costing about 29 billion euros (nearly $29 billion) during the four-month period.

...In order for solar capacity and generation to match necessary ambition by 2030 --
as well as REPowerEU targets -- this rate of deployment must continue. However, Ember's recent analysis shows that projections for the upcoming years fall short of the goal, with annual capacity additions in 2026 meeting only 46% of the value required under 1.5C pathways. This is largely due to permitting bottlenecks, with several countries exceeding the legally binding limits of project development times—these barriers need to be addressed for solar to keep growing....

The Netherlands and Germany, not known for their sunny climates, had the highest share of electricity from solar, followed by Spain. Poland saw the biggest increase in solar power generation compared with 2018, increasing installed capacity 26-fold, the report said....

Ember Group methodology
by Cat on Sat Sep 10th, 2022 at 02:09:40 AM EST
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My solar panels on the coast in The Hague +30% 🌤☀️ Nice 😄

'Sapere aude'
by Oui (Oui) on Sat Sep 10th, 2022 at 07:57:01 AM EST
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euractiv | EU countries call on Brussels to cap gas prices, but leave out details, 9 Sep longitudinal embargo studies
...Germany, for its part, suggested that a complete ["]stoppage["] in Russian gas imports would not do more harm to its economy since Moscow has already ["]halted["] deliveries exports through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline last week.

"Germany no longer gets Russian gas and we can still store it," said German economy and climate minister Robert Habeck. "This means that the market no longer expects us to collapse if there is no Russian gas."...

archived What this means, I believe, is ... in Krugman-Admits-He-Was-Wrong! (Pt. 1?)
by Cat on Mon Sep 12th, 2022 at 01:47:52 PM EST
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US Treasury | Preliminary Guidance on Implementation of a Maritime Services Policy
and Related Price Exception for Seaborne Russian Oil
, 9 Sep rackeeteering
As part of a coalition of countries including the G7 and the EU, the United States will implement
a policy with regards to a broad range of services related to the maritime transportation (the
"maritime services policy") of Russian Federation origin crude oil and petroleum products ("seaborne Russian oil"). This ban will take effect on December 5, 2022 with respect to maritime transportation of crude oil and on February 5, 2023 with respect to maritime transportation of petroleum products.

This policy, constructed as a ban on services, will have an important exception: jurisdictions or
actors that purchase seaborne Russian oil at or below a price cap to be established by the coalition (the "price exception") will expressly be able to receive such services. This policy is intended to expressly establish a framework for Russian oil to be exported by sea under a capped price and achieve three objectives: (i) maintain a reliable supply of seaborne Russian oil to the global market; (ii) reduce upward pressure on energy prices; and (iii) reduce the revenues the Russian Federation earns from oil after its own war of choice in Ukraine has inflated global energy prices
7. How will the recordkeeping and attestation process work?
OFAC [US Office of Foreign Assets Control] will expect the actors in Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 to retain relevant records for five years.
8. What are some possible red flags for price cap evasion?
9. How will OFAC enforce the price cap?
As described above, the recordkeeping and attestation process is intended to create a "safe
harbor" from liability for service providers for violations of the maritime services policy in cases
where service providers inadvertently deal in oil purchased above the price cap due to falsified
records provided by illicit actors. For example, where a service provider without direct access to
price information reasonably relies on a customer attestation, that service provider will not be
held liable for potential sanctions breaches because of illicit actors who seek to cause a violation
of the maritime services policy or evade OFAC sanctions. ...
10. What are examples of permissible vs. prohibited transactions? ...

by Cat on Sun Sep 11th, 2022 at 01:53:31 AM EST
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NATO do not possess sufficient oil, gas, coal, sundry rare earth mineral reserves (category: national security) to maintain "developed nation" political economy. Instead, members rely on "functioning" production sharing agreements (PSAs) and exports from rest of world who do possess "strategic resources".
by Cat on Thu Sep 15th, 2022 at 03:50:24 PM EST
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Bloomberg | Now Hiring: US Seeks Economist to Scrutinize Sanction Spillovers, 22 Sep
The department is advertising for a "chief sanctions economist" whose job will be to advise Treasury on everything from monetary policy to exchange rates to "energy, multilateral and bilateral assistance, official debt and related issues," according to a job description obtained by Bloomberg News ahead of its posting.
prequisite undergraduate degree, Top Secret clearance
That economist will head the newly created Sanctions Economic Analysis Unit, which will also hire two staff-level economists.
porfolio 37 programs, 12,000 eNiTiTIes
Brian Tool, a senior fellow at Atlantic Council who is a former senior adviser at Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, said it was about time for the new office to help make better strategic decisions.

"It is encouraging to see Treasury beginning to move in that direction," Tool said in a sext message. "Russia sanctions aren't going away, and there is great consternation among the commentariat on how strong sanctions could be used against China if necessary."

by Cat on Thu Sep 22nd, 2022 at 10:28:14 PM EST
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euractiv | Next Russia sanctions package to tackle evasion, but nuclear, oil-price cap likely to stay out, 26 Sep frustrated homicidal maniacs
several EU diplomats said after consultations for a seventh Russia sanctions package over the weekend left some more hawkish member states dissatisfied.
Measures proposed by the bloc's Russia hawks would, among others, include targeting nuclear, luxury goods and Russia's IT and tech sectors as well as excluding more banks from the SWIFT messaging system, according to a position paper seen by EURACTIV. Germany, EU diplomats say, would be on board for more too, having pushed for a ban on EU companies providing finance to metal and rare-earth mines in Russia and on imports of uranium.
Nuclear energy, a key sector for countries like France and Bulgaria, is unlikely to be included in the [sanctions] package and has raised concerns among some member states over the maintenance of Europe's [old] nuclear power plants, several EU diplomats briefed on the weekend talks told EURACTIV.

The measure would have hit "the construction of facilities or installation of equipment for, or the provision of services, equipment or technology for, activities related to power generation or electricity production both in Russia or abroad". This could have affected the construction of Hungary's Russian-backed expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant, which Budapest would have certainly vetoed.
It is likely that, at least in the short term, Brussels will look at tackling high gas prices via talks with [AUTHORITARIAN] supplier countries rather than capping imports.

euractive | RWE agrees UAE supply deal: Dec 2022 137,000 cm delivery to start
A group of EU member states, including the Netherlands, France, Poland[,] and the Baltics [Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia] have suggested a new listing criterion in which assisting with sanctions evasion and circumvention could become a ground for sanctioning individuals and entities.
US memo: What are some possible red flags for [G7 sanctions] evasion?
Hawkish member states Poland, Ireland, Lithuania, Estonia[,] and Latvia had also proposed introducing a retaliatory ban on imports of diamonds from Russia, where Alrosa is the world's largest producer of rough gems....
Alrosa | Operations, illustrated
by Cat on Mon Sep 26th, 2022 at 08:33:33 PM EST
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