I take a dim view of Bhadrakumar's last two posts. The basis of this commentary is topical, uniformed by long-term business needs and strategy, much less gov policies. For example, he does not once mention JCPOA once, although its integral to historical CN-RU-IR relations, and passes over IR admission to the SCO as if it was not finalized last year. He should pay more attention to S. Jaishankar than to G7 yella sheets, especially Hersh's "old newspaper".

As for Norway: NO's sovereign fund lost money. Although taxed oil and gas revenue profits increased throughout 2022, marketable asset values  held by the fund tanked  Q1-Q2, weighted by inflation pressures (FX, PMI). NO accounts for ~80% EU-area production and has no "excess capacity" to replace RU gas and oil, much less US or MENA imports.

Aug 2022 (USD:NOK value range runs -159B - 174B depending on when and who reports the loss)

Recall that NO.gov as late as Oct 2022 refused to support EU price caps on Russian-origin fuels. Which implies, EU customers are locked into NO spot and future contract terms. Also, EU's eurozone leaders (notably Habeck) search for alt LNG and oil suppliers began immediately, 2022Q1. What happened? US cornered EU gas market and EC carved out ridiculous price-cap exemptions to permit import both types of "Russian-origin" fuels. Which has been fixed, incidentally, in G7 popular imagination of EU "energy indepence" at "9%" share.

Dec 2022: Cui bono?

Did NS1 destruction 27 Sep 2022 (end Q3) change NO oil and gas market position, or vol share? No. (Recall, NS2 never exported gas.) So, what about price/unit—Did entry of US and MENA LNG reduce NO prices? No.

Norway expects to receive a record $89.5 billion (884 billion Norwegian crowns) in oil and gas tax revenue for 2022, triple the previous record in 2021, thanks to soaring gas prices last year, the Norwegian Tax Administration said in an estimate on Thursday [26 Jan 2023]....

norskpetrolium | Macroeconomic indicators for the petroleum sector, 2023, 6 Oct 2022, illustrated
Equinor| FYE 2022, 8 Feb 2023

Equinor realised a European gas price of USD 29 per mmbtu and realised liquids prices where USD 80.4 per bbl in the fourth quarter. Although prices are comparatively higher than the corresponding quarter in 2021, European gas price weakened through the fourth quarter of 2022.
[...]
For 2022 the adjusted earnings* were USD 74.9 billion, up from USD 33.5 billion last year. ... In 2022 Equinor paid USD 42.8 billion in tax related to operations on NCS.

"atonement"
I'm sure that word does not mean what Bhadrakumar thinks it means. (1) NO fuel has always been exempt from EU price cap, so no EU transgression; (2) NO has been sending "aid" to Ukraine throughout 2022 (ex 1, ex 2, ex 3, ex 4), so no UA transgression; (3) (NOK 75B ($7.3B) over 5 YEARS is chump change, a revenue rounding error, not reparations for imaginary "theft" of EU27 "post-pandemic" Fit for 50 GDP.

end note
Feb 2023