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As for Norway: NO's sovereign fund lost money. Although taxed oil and gas revenue profits increased throughout 2022, marketable asset values held by the fund tanked Q1-Q2, weighted by inflation pressures (FX, PMI). NO accounts for ~80% EU-area production and has no "excess capacity" to replace RU gas and oil, much less US or MENA imports.
Aug 2022 (USD:NOK value range runs -159B - 174B depending on when and who reports the loss)
Recall that NO.gov as late as Oct 2022 refused to support EU price caps on Russian-origin fuels. Which implies, EU customers are locked into NO spot and future contract terms. Also, EU's eurozone leaders (notably Habeck) search for alt LNG and oil suppliers began immediately, 2022Q1. What happened? US cornered EU gas market and EC carved out ridiculous price-cap exemptions to permit import both types of "Russian-origin" fuels. Which has been fixed, incidentally, in G7 popular imagination of EU "energy indepence" at "9%" share.
Dec 2022: Cui bono?
Did NS1 destruction 27 Sep 2022 (end Q3) change NO oil and gas market position, or vol share? No. (Recall, NS2 never exported gas.) So, what about price/unit—Did entry of US and MENA LNG reduce NO prices? No.
Norway expects to receive a record $89.5 billion (884 billion Norwegian crowns) in oil and gas tax revenue for 2022, triple the previous record in 2021, thanks to soaring gas prices last year, the Norwegian Tax Administration said in an estimate on Thursday [26 Jan 2023]....
Equinor realised a European gas price of USD 29 per mmbtu and realised liquids prices where USD 80.4 per bbl in the fourth quarter. Although prices are comparatively higher than the corresponding quarter in 2021, European gas price weakened through the fourth quarter of 2022.
For 2022 the adjusted earnings* were USD 74.9 billion, up from USD 33.5 billion last year. ... In 2022 Equinor paid USD 42.8 billion in tax related to operations on NCS.
Oil production in January is 3.0 percent lower than the NPD's forecast.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) has granted Aker BP ASA drilling permit for well 25/2-24 S
Protesters with NSR Nuorat and environmental organization called Nature and Youth have occupied the building since Thursday morning in a demonstration against 150 wind turbines still standing in the Fosen region of central Norway despite an October 2021 decision from the Norwegian Supreme Court deeming them illegal on the grounds of disturbing Sámi reindeer herders' cultural rights under international conventions.
Norway's Supreme Court deemed the licenses to build and operate the wind farms illegal in October 2021, finding they violated a 1966 treaty known as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.
The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has not commented on how it will act on the protest currently occupying its building, according to SVT NYHETER.
"I have apologized to the reindeer owners on behalf of the government," Oil and Energy Minister Terje Aasland said after meeting with the speaker of the 39-seat Sami Parliament, Silje Karine Mutoka. "They have been in a difficult and unclear situation for a long time. I'm sorry about that," he said.
Although the talks did not yield an agreement to resolve the wind farm dispute, Aasland said "that we are not ruling out any solutions at this time."
They once faced oppression of their culture, including bans on the use of their native tongue. Now they have their own parliaments, schools, newspapers and broadcasts in their own language on national radio and television. The nomadic people live mostly modern lifestyles, but still tend reindeer.
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