Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
With friends like these, who needs foes?
"Hersh has since explained to the German newspaper Berliner Zeitung that Norway was particularly interested in successfully pulling off the plot against the Nord Stream pipelines.

In his words, "Norway was interested in income growth, and hence in increasing the volume of its energy supplies to the EU, to the same Germany. And what do we see after the mission? Norway has made it. It's (energy) exports grew against the backdrop of significant hostility towards Russia."

Norway was attracted to Biden's sabotage project like a fly to the honeypot, since it stood to gain fabulously in financial terms if it helped the US military to destroy Nord Stream pipelines near Danish waters, and replace Russia as Germany's principal source of piped natural gas.

To be sure, Norway has made a kill. The loot is estimated to be worth over $100 billion so far! Norway supplied 33 percent of Germany's gas needs in 2022, making it the country's largest supplier."


by Tom2 on Fri Feb 17th, 2023 at 06:33:49 PM EST
I take a dim view of Bhadrakumar's last two posts. The basis of this commentary is topical, uniformed by long-term business needs and strategy, much less gov policies. For example, he does not once mention JCPOA once, although its integral to historical CN-RU-IR relations, and passes over IR admission to the SCO as if it was not finalized last year. He should pay more attention to S. Jaishankar than to G7 yella sheets, especially Hersh's "old newspaper".

As for Norway: NO's sovereign fund lost money. Although taxed oil and gas revenue profits increased throughout 2022, marketable asset values  held by the fund tanked  Q1-Q2, weighted by inflation pressures (FX, PMI). NO accounts for ~80% EU-area production and has no "excess capacity" to replace RU gas and oil, much less US or MENA imports.

Aug 2022 (USD:NOK value range runs -159B - 174B depending on when and who reports the loss)

Recall that NO.gov as late as Oct 2022 refused to support EU price caps on Russian-origin fuels. Which implies, EU customers are locked into NO spot and future contract terms. Also, EU's eurozone leaders (notably Habeck) search for alt LNG and oil suppliers began immediately, 2022Q1. What happened? US cornered EU gas market and EC carved out ridiculous price-cap exemptions to permit import both types of "Russian-origin" fuels. Which has been fixed, incidentally, in G7 popular imagination of EU "energy indepence" at "9%" share.

Dec 2022: Cui bono?

Did NS1 destruction 27 Sep 2022 (end Q3) change NO oil and gas market position, or vol share? No. (Recall, NS2 never exported gas.) So, what about price/unit—Did entry of US and MENA LNG reduce NO prices? No.

Norway expects to receive a record $89.5 billion (884 billion Norwegian crowns) in oil and gas tax revenue for 2022, triple the previous record in 2021, thanks to soaring gas prices last year, the Norwegian Tax Administration said in an estimate on Thursday [26 Jan 2023]....
norskpetrolium | Macroeconomic indicators for the petroleum sector, 2023, 6 Oct 2022, illustrated
Equinor| FYE 2022, 8 Feb 2023
Equinor realised a European gas price of USD 29 per mmbtu and realised liquids prices where USD 80.4 per bbl in the fourth quarter. Although prices are comparatively higher than the corresponding quarter in 2021, European gas price weakened through the fourth quarter of 2022.
For 2022 the adjusted earnings* were USD 74.9 billion, up from USD 33.5 billion last year. ... In 2022 Equinor paid USD 42.8 billion in tax related to operations on NCS.
I'm sure that word does not mean what Bhadrakumar thinks it means. (1) NO fuel has always been exempt from EU price cap, so no EU transgression; (2) NO has been sending "aid" to Ukraine throughout 2022 (ex 1, ex 2, ex 3, ex 4), so no UA transgression; (3) (NOK 75B ($7.3B) over 5 YEARS is chump change, a revenue rounding error, not reparations for imaginary "theft" of EU27 "post-pandemic" Fit for 50 GDP.

end note
Feb 2023

by Cat on Sat Feb 18th, 2023 at 04:05:12 PM EST
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I haven't kept up with Hersh PR. Last word on the grapevine was, DE is too skeered of Blinken to investigate its own intell from NS1 landing site. What motives for DK, SE, PL, LT, EE, LV, and possibly IL, parts in the NS caper has Hersh since to EXPOSED?
by Cat on Sat Feb 18th, 2023 at 04:21:05 PM EST
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npd.no | Production figures January 2023, 21 Feb illustrated
Oil production in January is 3.0 percent lower than the NPD's forecast.
npd.no | Drilling permit for 25/2-24 S, 21 Jan
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) has granted Aker BP ASA drilling permit for well 25/2-24 S
by Cat on Fri Feb 24th, 2023 at 07:40:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Sámi youth] activists refuse to leave Norwegian oil and energy ministry, 24 Feb
Protesters with NSR Nuorat and environmental organization called Nature and Youth have occupied the building since Thursday morning in a demonstration against 150 wind turbines still standing in the Fosen region of central Norway despite an October 2021 decision from the Norwegian Supreme Court deeming them illegal on the grounds of disturbing Sámi reindeer herders' cultural rights under international conventions.
Norway's Supreme Court deemed the licenses to build and operate the wind farms illegal in October 2021, finding they violated a 1966 treaty known as the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.
The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has not commented on how it will act on the protest currently occupying its building, according to SVT NYHETER.
by Cat on Mon Feb 27th, 2023 at 02:54:55 PM EST
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Norway's government apologizes to Sami reindeer herders, 2 Mar
"I have apologized to the reindeer owners on behalf of the government," Oil and Energy Minister Terje Aasland said after meeting with the speaker of the 39-seat Sami Parliament, Silje Karine Mutoka. "They have been in a difficult and unclear situation for a long time. I'm sorry about that," he said.
Although the talks did not yield an agreement to resolve the wind farm dispute, Aasland said "that we are not ruling out any solutions at this time."
They once faced oppression of their culture, including bans on the use of their native tongue. Now they have their own parliaments, schools, newspapers and broadcasts in their own language on national radio and television. The nomadic people live mostly modern lifestyles, but still tend reindeer.
by Cat on Thu Mar 2nd, 2023 at 10:06:25 PM EST
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