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ChatGPT | Top NATO commander: Russia's offensive won't succeed, 16 May
"I know the Russians don't have the numbers necessary to do a strategic breakthrough," Christopher Cavoli told reporters after a meeting of the alliance's defense chiefs at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

"They don't have the skill and the capability to do it, to operate at the scale necessary to exploit any breakthrough to strategic advantage," said the U.S. general, but added: "They do have the ability to make local advances and they have done some of that."

Cavoli's assessment comes from "very close contact with our Ukrainian colleagues, and I'm confident that they that they will hold the line," he added. Despite Russia pressing along the frontlines with Ukraine and recently launching an attack near Ukraine's second city of Kharkiv, Cavoli said he was uncertain that this was Moscow's full-scale summer offensive.

"What we don't see is large, large numbers of reserves being generated someplace," he said. Cavoli added that it's difficult to know if Russia's effort has run out of gas.
[...]

archive center of psychoville
president.gov.ua | We managed to give confidence to the direction of Volchansk, but the Russian shelling does not stop, there are threats-the President's address (16.05.24)
We held a meeting of the Headquarters in Kharkiv: That is, all aspects of the situation. In detail—about the fighting in Kharkiv region and the protection of people, our positions, the needs of units that protect our positions. Today, in particular, the head of the administration of Volchansk was injured. Our counterattack operations continue—they continue in other areas in the border regions of Kharkiv, and our results in repelling the assaults, in destroying the occupier should become more. After returning to Kiev, I spoke with Polish Prime Minister Tusk about our needs, about Patriot systems that could significantly change the situation in the Kharkiv direction.
ukrinform | Zelensk*: Russia won't occupy Kharkiv if Ukraine gets two Patriot systems
...Asked by a journalist whether America is to blame for what is happening in Kharkiv, Zelensk* answered: "It's the world's fault. They gave the opportunity for Putin to occupy (Ukrainian territory - ed.) But now the world can help."...
archive one spare battery of Patriots
by Cat on Fri May 17th, 2024 at 12:13:55 AM EST
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euractiv syndicated ISW capitulation sitrep w/e 25 May
[...]
For this account, Reuters spoke to a total of five people who work with or have worked with Putin at a senior level in the political and business worlds. The fifth source did not comment on freezing the war at the current frontlines.
All five sources said Putin had told advisers he had no designs on NATO territory, reflecting his public comments on the matter. Two of the sources cited Russian concerns about the growing danger of escalation with the West, including nuclear escalation, over the Ukraine standoff.
[...]
Three sources said Putin understood any dramatic new advances would require another nationwide mobilisation, which he didn't want, with one source, who knows the Russian president, saying his popularity dipped after the first mobilisation in September 2022.
Annotated ISW map Legend:
hatch blue area (///): current "Korea Option" grey zone along RF border
solid pinko area: four (4) RU "occupied territories"
thin black line: Ukraine oblast boundaries
thin blue line: active "frontline" meandering through  Kherson, Zaporizh*, Donetsk, and Luhansk
[...]
Putin's insistence on locking in any battlefield gains in a deal is non-negotiable, all of the sources suggested. Putin would, however, be ready to settle for what land he has now and freeze the conflict at the current front lines, four of the sources said.

"Putin will say that we won, that NATO attacked us and we kept our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true," one of them said, giving their own analysis. Freezing the conflict along current lines would leave Russia in possession of substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions he formally incorporated into Russia in September 2022, but without full control of any of them.
[...]

strana | The SBR accused 28 Ukrainian commanders of seizing ten villages near Kharkiv by the Russians, 24 May lost in translation
settlements of Strelka, Krasnoe, Borisovka, Pylnoye of the Kharkiv region and Gatische of the Chuguevsky region, as well as other settlements of the Kharkiv region (along the state border of Ukraine with the Russian Federation), during the assault actions of the Russian Army, there were facts of abandonment of combat positions by AFU units.
by Cat on Fri May 24th, 2024 at 11:27:52 PM EST
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wapoo
< inhale >
Russia's jamming of the guidance systems of modern Western weapons, including Excalibur GPS-guided artillery shells and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, which can fire some U.S.-made rockets with a range of up to 50 miles, has eroded Ukraine's ability to defend its territory and has left officials in Kyiv urgently seeking help from the Pentagon to obtain upgrades from arms manufacturers.
< exhale >
< inhale >
Russia's ability to combat the high-tech munitions has far-reaching implications for Ukraine and its Western suppliers—potentially providing a blueprint for adversaries such as China and Iran—and it is a key reason Moscow's forces have regained the initiative and are advancing on the battlefield.
< exhale >
archive HIMARS and Bradleys, freedom and property in The cost of doing business
by Cat on Sun May 26th, 2024 at 11:43:29 AM EST
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uatv.ua. willing to pay the price for counterfeit Lego® strategic autonomy
"The NATO secretary general recently said that as NATO countries, we can temporarily move below the alliance's capability targets. So the room for creativity is there. Industrial suppliers have pledged to speed up production and delivery of replacement systems. We are counting on that," Dutch Minister of Defense Kajsa Ollongren referred to Jens Stoltenberg who encouraged the allies to sacrifice the needs of alliance when it comes to boosting support for Ukraine.
defence-ua | Netherlands [Asks] Multiple Countries to Assemble a Patriot for Ukraine Piece by Piece
This could be a reasonable idea of how to get a Patriot air defense system in a short time, and there's already a list of countries that could participate in this venture
[...]
In April, the German Ministry of Defense announced the "immediate" transfer of another Patriot to Ukraine and sparked a discussion of who else could donate additional systems. For a reminder, the Netherlands itself has three Patriot fire units (batteries), and in 2023 committed to sending two extra launchers to complement the Patriots deployed in Ukraine.
kyivindependent | Netherlands wants to deliver Patriot system to Ukraine jointly with partners
The country has identified which partners could contribute parts and ammunition from their own stocks and called on them to join the initiative.
[...]
Ukraine operates at least three Patriot systems provided by the U.S., the Netherlands, and Germany, with Berlin recently pledging to deliver a fourth one. The Netherlands did not supply a full system but rather two launchers and other supplies. Previously, the Netherlands contributed funds to Germany's air defense initiative for Ukraine, which reportedly collected close to 1 billion euros as of May 21.
reference
defensie.nl | The Netherlands spearheads initiative to jointly deliver Patriot system for Ukraine, calls on other European nations to contribute, 28 May
"The Dutch government proposes to quickly assemble a Patriot air defense system in close cooperation with several partners and deliver it to Ukraine. The Netherlands will contribute core components and parts from its stock and invites European countries to add components from theirs."
defensie.nl | The Dutch supply of Patriot air defence system to Ukraine, 20 Jan
"The Netherlands will supply parts of a Patriot air defence system, specifically 2 launchers and missiles, to Ukraine. The Netherlands is also responsible for training Ukrainian soldiers. Further The Netherlands will supply 100 vehicles fitted with [brand-name?] anti-aircraft guns that were commercially purchased < wipes tears > in the Czech Republic."
by Cat on Wed May 29th, 2024 at 12:40:47 PM EST
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