First, they are very few in numbers (a few hundred), and they are even more marginalized than fringe left partist.

Second, things are going pretty well in the Nordics. As long as Germany holds up, things will be well in Sweden and Finland, and Sweden has its own currency which gives huge freedom of action. Norway has oil and its own currency and will be well no matter what. In Denmark the established parties can co-opt any increase in right-wing radicalism through triangulation. Denmark can also easily drop its fixed exchange rate with the euro.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

the Spanish government is challenging the declaration of Catalonian independence in the Constitutional Court; a Spanish general said the army would intervene to keep Spanish unity

The intersection of nationalism and austerity in Spain

We have a number of stories this weekend illustrating the dangerous mix of austerity and nationalism in Spain.

After the Spanish Parliament rejected the Catalan Parliament's sovereignty declaration in a vote, the Spanish government decided on Friday to challenge the Declaration before the Constitutional Court, writes El Pais (English edition). The government's decision is backed by the consultative State Council, as well as the Attorney General's office.  

Last Autumn, the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) had agreed to lend outside support to a minority CiU government in exchange for a timetable for independence which included the above sovereignty declaration as a first step, subordinating its opposition to austerity policies to the 'national construction'. However, on Saturday, ERC's leader Oriol Junqueras laid down an additional condition for its party to support CiU's budget: that the budget cut be blamed officially by Artur Mas on Spain's PM Mariano Rajoy, ABC reports. Meanwhile, [according to] Europa Press the leader of CiU in the Spanish Parliament, Cristian Democrat Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida, worries that ERC is "capitalizing" on the sovereignty drive, and that the budget cuts make CiU "look right-wing".

We recall that the Catalan socialists PSC broke ranks with the national PSOE in the parliamentary vote on the Catalan sovereignty resolution (with the PSOE voting against, the PSC for, and some PSC deputies abstaining), and the resulting controversy included internal calls for the PSOE to sever ties with the PSC. ABC writes that [p]rominent PP member Esteban Gonzalez Pons attempted to drive a further wedge between the PSOE and PSC, by declaring that "for the good of Spain, the PSOE in Catalonia should be different from the PSC". So far, the PSC has been affiliated with the PSOE at the national level, while the PSOE does not contest Catalan elections.

In this context, in the middle of last week a Spanish reserve General made public statements at a forum on "Armed forces and constitutional arrangement" which were widely interpreted as suggesting the armed forces should intervene in Catalonia. Among other things, the General said "the fatherland is more important than democracy". Catalan political parties as well as the PSOE demanded that the government discipline the General, and La Vanguardia reported on Thursday that the Ministtry of Defence has started the procedures to determine whether the General's remarks broke the law.

Spain's chief prosecutor is seeking to remove the chief prosecutor of Catalonia

After the military, now it's prosecutors called out of order on Catalan independence

The chief prosecutor of Catalonia is facing disciplinary action over statements he made to the press over the weekend regarding the legality of an independence referendum, reports El Mundo. The Catalan prosecutor, in an interview with Europa Press, had said that a referendum was illegal, but that it was possible that "other forms of consultation with different questions" could be found, as well as referring to  a draft law on consultations currently being considered by the Catalan regional parliament. Finally, while "rejecting secessionist projects" he wondered whether the Constitution of 1978 could be reformed. All of these remarks are considered inappropriate by Spain's Chief Prosecutor, who has initiated the procedure to remove the Catalan Prosecutor.

Undoubtedly, western Europe could, and should, have used political and economic influence to lessen the risks of war in Yugoslavia. Nevertheless, when war broke out, it was morally wrong to fail to intervene.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}

There is no alternative (to propaganda), of course.

The Catalan government would probably argue that it has been a net fiscal contributor to Spain and so is owed. However, the Catalan government borrowed €10bn from the Spanish government last year to avoid insolvency, and it will borrow as much this year. In addition, Catalunya Caixa has received €10bn of Spanish government aid (some of it from the EU bailout last year) and now cannot be auctioned because nobody wants to buy it. I joke that the Spanish government should sell Catalunya Caixa to the Catalan government for €1.

So Catalan independence looks to me to set up something not unlike the Ljubljanska Banka controversy: when Yugoslavia fell apart many banks failed, including Ljubljanska Banka. The newly independent slovenia argued that onle Slevenes were eligible for protection from the Slovenian state, and that others had recourse to the Yugoslav deposit guarantee. 20 years later, Slovenia is delaying retification of Croatia's EU accession because there are still lawsuits by private Croatian citizens on their lost savings in Ljubljanska Banka, and Slovenia and Croatia are negotiating some sort of settlement. 20 years later.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

If you include step 2 you could get a two-sided conflict.

The direct losses of 4 countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal) leaving the EZone are estimated at 17 trillion.

This would be the worst economic crisis in modern times and take more than a decade to overcome.

So far the losses haven't been materialized, they are potential.

That is true. However, France is a split country in the sense that socialist supporters including intellectuals, civil servants and the like see themselves as the leader of the South, whereas the business and industry community is much closer to Germany and the North. That is why a split of the EU is going to very much polarize opinion in France.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

The direct losses of 4 countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal) leaving the EZone are estimated at 17 trillion. This would be the worst economic crisis in modern times and take more than a decade to overcome.

The problem with such an event is that those owning the debt that is being defaulted won't just accept that their claims have to be written down and they have to lose money. OH NO! They will be demanding to be made whole until every poor person in the EZ has been thrown into a meat grinder and sold as hamburger, regardless of whether that will or will not make them whole.

The situation in the Euro-zone is similar to the real estate melt down in the USA. Much of the debt has been created by fraud, but it has all been mixed together or comingled, so now all is tainted. But the most powerful people, many of whom were responsible for the fraud, are demanding to be made whole and those they are blaming are not capable of making them whole. So what we have is an ugly drama of vindictive spite inflicted mostly on those who had nothing to do with the origin of the problem other than, perhaps, having voted for politicians who colluded with fraud. I guess the assumption is that the citizens are not like investors in a corporation who are only liable to the extent of the value of their stock.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

German policy has been driving basically all of the Eurozone's dysfunctions, which means that the successor bloc containing Germany is virtually guaranteed to be just as dysfunctional.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

I think, on purely economic grounds, a Northern alliance will most likely follow an EU breakup. Most countries bordering Germany depend on the German market. This will create a bloc other countries will join by and by. Any Southern alliance is likely to be dysfunctional.

(Yes, the name "Neuro" is an intentional pun)

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

Incidentally, my mental model is more 1914, which is suiting since we are soon to celebrate its 100th anniversary.