If we want to rule out lethal aid, then what options are available? Do we accept the idea that the Ukrainian State is essentially failing? If so, how do we in the West confront this?

If one does not view creating failed states in Russia's sphere of interest (and I'm not counting out the possibility that the US has precisely that motive), then the only solution is to give Russia carte blanche to massive troop deployments (and the accompanying atrocities that always and everywhere follow massive troop deployments). Ukraine is incapable of maintaining effective and credible state power, and Russia will never - to the point of calling down atomic fire from the skies - accept that any other power takes it upon itself to police Ukraine.

So, Russian "peacekeepers" or no peacekeepers whatever.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

The unwillingness of security structures to defend public buildings from separatist occupation has been a theme in eastern Ukraine since early April. Supporters of the "Donetsk People's Republic" have taken over a string of city halls and police stations. An armed unit from Crimea - led by an alleged Russian colonel - has also established a de facto military capital in the town of Slavyansk.

But in recent days Kiev's tentative grip on local law enforcement in the east appears to have slipped completely. In Luhansk riot police stood passively in a courtyard, kettled in by separatists armed with bats and hammers. "The regional leadership does not control its police force," Stanislav Rechynsky, an aide to the interior minister in Kiev, told Reuters. "The local police did nothing."

In a statement on Tuesday, Ukraine's interim president, Oleksandr Turchynov, said: "The vast majority of law enforcement officials in the east are not able to fulfil their obligation to protect our citizens."

The unwillingness of security structures to defend public buildings from Maidan Rebellion occupation has been a theme in western Ukraine since early November 2013. Supporters of the "European People's Republic" have taken over a string of public buildings, security and police stations. An armed unit from the Rights Sector - led by an alleged Chechen rebel - has also established a de facto military capital in the heart of Kiev.

All of the EU nations and the US-AID funded NGOs support a violent overthrow of a democratically elected President in the Ukraine.

Policy set out by the Atlantic Council is containment of Putin's Russia and make it a pariah state. The last is a quote by former US Ambassador to NATO in Brussels, Ivo Daalder.

See my latest diary - Kerry Preaching Policy Contra Russia @Atlantic Council.

'Sapere aude'

It would need representation from all factions with power on the ground and credible outside negotiators (since the European countries are a bit to close to the conflict, perhaps India or South Africa could provide some). A compromise might be reached along the lines of keeping Ukraine together, but with a lot of power decentralised to the regions, ensuring that neither the coupists in Kiev nor in Donbass are rounded up and shot. This should be acceptable to Russia, considering it is what they are pushing for.

The problem is that I doubt the Kiev government could survive the result, Maidan is still mobilised and might do another coup. Also if the western backers don't consider a compromise acceptable, but still prefer conflict, they would probably back nationalist radicals in such a scenario.

So while not likely to succeed, I think calls for a pre-emptive peace conference is the best any outside force can to for the people in Ukraine.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

In a sense, this is encouraging. The problem is that a point will be reached when the former nation will be sufficiently clearly divided into "us" and "them", to overcome that reluctance.

So not a failed state yet. A breakdown in authority, sure. Irreparable? Probably, given the apparent incompetence and lack of realism of the Kiev junta. But it wouldn't be that hard, probably, to stick the pieces together by calling a constituent assembly to determine a new federal structure.

Without knowing what's going on in the heads of the Kiev government, I imagine that the backing of the US and the EU enable them to harbour the delusion that their friends will help them to restore control on the rebellious territories. Somehow. So a bit more realism on the part of the "allies" would go a long way towards a solution.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}

• Members of central government admits having lost control over the east
  
• Members of central government proposes referendum on unity
  
• Members of central government proposes decentralisation
  
• Members of central government proposes national conscription

   The NYT's Neil MacFarquhar and Alan Cowell this morning from Moscow: "The Kremlin said Friday that 'all hope' for an internationally negotiated settlement in Ukraine had been destroyed, hours after two Ukrainian helicopters were shot down as government forces launched an assault to dislodge pro-Russian separatists from the eastern city of Slovyansk.

    "A spokesman for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, Dmitri S. Peskov, told news agencies that the 'punitive operation' against the separatists' eastern stronghold effectively had destroyed 'all hope for the viability of the Geneva agreements' negotiated in the Swiss city on April 17 by the United States, Russia, Ukraine and the European Union, which were intended to defuse the crisis. The agreements, which never taken deep root, had become increasingly frayed in recent days. Much of eastern Ukraine slipped beyond the control of the authorities in Kiev as militants took control of a string of official buildings and captured a German-led team of military observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe."

    "...The clashes on Friday seemed to sharpen the East-West confrontation. While the European Commission in Brussels said it was watching the situation in Ukraine with growing concern, the Russian Foreign Ministry urged Western powers to abandon what it said was a 'destructive' policy of support for the interim government in Kiev. 'This will allow a real process of de-escalation to begin,' the ministry said in a statement, according to Reuters. Russia's response to the clashes were in keeping with earlier efforts by the Kremlin to steer events in Ukraine while casting the authorities in Kiev, along with their supporters, as obstacles.

40 people dead in #Odessa. Many choked to death on smoke or killed when jumping to escape fire http://t.co/cce3nLoAWS pic.twitter.com/yg8ojldGnD

— Reuters Top News (@Reuters) Mayo 2, 2014

The east seems to be already out the door, and well on the way to becoming a new state or a part of the Russian Federation.  But certainly the authority of Kiev  (soon to officially be Kyiv) does not hold there.  

The west seems actually more problematic.  It is not just the Russians and the easterners who think the Kyiv government is illegitimate, the western Ukrainians, judging by their (lack of) support, obviously think the same thing.  

Which means there is a real problem of how authority in the west might be reconstituted.  

The American neo-cons have once again done what they do best.  They obviously believed they were going to attach the entire Ukraine to NATO by funding a Nazi putsch.  That having failed, they are now just looking for ways to make money off the chaos.  They will.  

--Gaianne  

The Fates are kind.

On May 2, under the pretext of the so-called march `For unity of Ukraine' (that was dated to football match `Chernomorets' - `Metallist') - the paramilitary squads of Ukrainian nationalist were brought together to Odessa from all over the country. They arrived by buses and by trains. From the very beginning - when they just started to gather on `Sobornaya' square - among ordinary ultra-right fans too many well-equipped paramilitaries could be seen. They had shields, helmets, bats, traumatic and service weapons. Mostly - men about 30-40 years old who were evidently not football fans. Some of them had shields where it was written: '14-th hundred of Maidan self-guard'. And these nationalist paramilitaries became the main striking force of bloody massacre of Odessa residents on `Kulikovo pole' square.

In total there were more than thousand of nationalists that participated in the march and the slaughter that followed it. Local residents of Odessa were the minority among them, while the majority - far-right paramilitaries that were brought together there. They could be identified in particular by dialect (not typical for Odessa region), however many of them openly acknowledged and told where they came from. Local Odessa fans of `Chernomorets' team have left the march at the moment when clashes started - they came just for traditional march to the stadium and when they realized that `visitors' and provocateurs led them to beat local people - the majority of `Chernomorets' fans (identified by black-blue scarves of Odessa club) - immediately left the so-called `peaceful' march.

At the same time `guest-militants' were not going to the stadium. Their aim was to terrorize the city-residents and to unleash violence against the activists of the movements opposed to Kiev junta. The action of nationalists from the very beginning had not a peaceful nature, since they were preparing to start a massacre.

@GRAFIXEL Lviv pulled the trick before Russia "Ukraine crisis deepens as Western region moves toward independence http://t.co/XpwawV9u0q"

— Abd el-Kader (@PrincAbdElKader) Mayo 6, 2014