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Qui bono?

by Nikita Mon Jan 23rd, 2006 at 03:45:11 AM EST

from the front page. Nikita's comment in the thread describing his own position inserted below the fold. -- Jérôme

I have been following the escalation of Iran crisis and seemingly unstoppable move towards military actions between Iran and US. There has been plenty of discussion within US of possible motivations of US administration and its national interests in this regard.

However, I would like to turn the spotlight towards US associates in this regard: Germany, France and UK. Given realities of power policies none of these three countries is involved without some motivation or gain.

Thus I ask you, members of the court, qui bono?


I have to admit of having fairly limited number of facts on my disposal in this subject.

For one EU and US have fairly many converging security issues and goals. Thus working together in common security issues does make sense.

For second, EU countries have been VERY worried of threats from middle-east including ballistic missiles (notice steady work on SAM systems that allow defence against theatre level missiles) and increase of naval co-operation in Mediterranean (and talk of counterimmigration co-operation).

EU clearly does not like idea of nuclear armed Iran with reason being that it is believed that all other countries in region would also try to get themselves nuclear weapons too.

At the same time US does appear quite willing to use weaponry (including nuclear weapons) to pre-emptively stop Iran from gaining its own nuclear weaponry. this has been made clear in various doctrinal documents and major foreign policy speeches. I am absolutely certain that at least some of these leaks in recent years are intentional and used to signal change in nuclear policy stance in order to deter potential enemies. I have not seen such concepts being floated around in EU and thus I believe there is a fundamental difference between US and EU policy options towards Iran. I believe this means that EU(3) can and do put diplomatic pressure while US can and does employ military pressure (including airspace violations, armed military units infiltration) up to and ultimately including air strikes. I also believe, based on military doctrines and diplomatic leaks that US will ultimately use force against Iran in some form.

I also believe that EU strategists do strongly believe that US will sit on Middle-East for several decades no matter what the cost or casualties because importance of that area for global energy supply continuously increase. It is also good to remember that US sees China as future enemy (this view is particularly strong amongst US Navy in Pacific but it has also been signaled in 2000-2001 internal reviews on stregic postures that were leaked). Since China's reliance on Middle-East for energy supply is increasing, it is rational for US to keep its hand on tap. EU's ultimate Middle-East nightmare is also strongly related to this geostrategic choice. EU's ultimate fear is a revolution in Saudi-Arabia that will trigger US invasion to protect its oil interests in area. This has been voiced in several European publications. While this kind of calculation might appear machiavellian, it is good to remember that while supply is important, ability to deny supply is equally important, especially in crisis.

Subsequently I believe that EU has accepted US policy of military overlordship of Middle-East as a rational strategic choice (on behalf of US) and thus holding Iraq and isolation of Iran (also Syria) are rational policies for US.

Finally I believe that EU3's fundamental strategic goal and option to be supporting US on diplomatic front while avoiding outward military actions. For one EU does not have (yet) such capability (and will not for next 20-30 years) and for second such policies are not domestically popular.

I do also believe that EU does not want military strikes against Iran because perceived cons outweight pros. The perceived cons include destabilization of Middle-East and economic consequences of high oil prices. These two options (including third, that threat is not acute and isolation does work) were also cited by French authorities in 2002 before attack towards Iraq. I do see EU possibly supporting harsh language, diplomatic isolation and possibly economic sanctions as ultimate ways to deter Iran. I do not see EU going to give US keys to air strikes.

At the same time I also believe that EU countries have been signaled from US that US will ultimately go to military options within next few years. Subsequently EU countries have themselves thought over the issue and came into conclusion that they do not intend to stop war but do allow it to happen and try to stay away from it.

This gives best of all worlds by scoring cheap points with US (useful when next president comes in power), playing home constituencies by being outwardly pacifist and simply making the best out of worst options.

Such stance might appear to be hypochritical to some sensitivities but I believe it is rational course of action if you do believe military actions are coming anyways.

Display:
I very much doubt that Germany or France would be involved in military action against Iran in any case. I suppose they are using the threat of taking things to the UNSC and the (implied) threat of US military action as a stick, since the EU's economic cooperation didn't work as a carrot.

Is it possible that France (say) just wants the US to get mired in the Middle East even more? Chirac's stance on Iraq has been blamed on that by some.

Note, though, that the EU recognizes that Iran is not in violation of its NPT commitments, just that "trust in the peaceful purposes of Iran's nuclear program" has not been established.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 18th, 2006 at 06:25:22 AM EST
nikita, I would be interested to hear your thoughts on possible ulterior motives of these three you mention...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 03:08:42 AM EST
I have to admit of having fairly limited number of facts on my disposal in this subject.

For one EU and US have fairly many converging security issues and goals. Thus working together in common security issues does make sense.

For second, EU countries have been VERY worried of threats from middle-east including ballistic missiles (notice steady work on SAM systems that allow defence against theatre level missiles) and increase of naval co-operation in Mediterranean (and talk of counterimmigration co-operation).

EU clearly does not like idea of nuclear armed Iran with reason being that it is believed that all other countries in region would also try to get themselves nuclear weapons too.

At the same time US does appear quite willing to use weaponry (including nuclear weapons) to pre-emptively stop Iran from gaining its own nuclear weaponry. this has been made clear in various doctrinal documents and major foreign policy speeches. I am absolutely certain that at least some of these leaks in recent years are intentional and used to signal change in nuclear policy stance in order to deter potential enemies. I have not seen such concepts being floated around in EU and thus I believe there is a fundamental difference between US and EU policy options towards Iran. I believe this means that EU(3) can and do put diplomatic pressure while US can and does employ military pressure (including airspace violations, armed military units infiltration) up to and ultimately including air strikes. I also believe, based on military doctrines and diplomatic leaks that US will ultimately use force against Iran in some form.

I also believe that EU strategists do strongly believe that US will sit on Middle-East for several decades no matter what the cost or casualties because importance of that area for global energy supply continuously increase. It is also good to remember that US sees China as future enemy (this view is particularly strong amongst US Navy in Pacific but it has also been signaled in 2000-2001 internal reviews on stregic postures that were leaked). Since China's reliance on Middle-East for energy supply is increasing, it is rational for US to keep its hand on tap. EU's ultimate Middle-East nightmare is also strongly related to this geostrategic choice. EU's ultimate fear is a revolution in Saudi-Arabia that will trigger US invasion to protect its oil interests in area. This has been voiced in several European publications. While this kind of calculation might appear machiavellian, it is good to remember that while supply is important, ability to deny supply is equally important, especially in crisis.

Subsequently I believe that EU has accepted US policy of military overlordship of Middle-East as a rational strategic choice (on behalf of US) and thus holding Iraq and isolation of Iran (also Syria) are rational policies for US.

Finally I believe that EU3's fundamental strategic goal and option to be supporting US on diplomatic front while avoiding outward military actions. For one EU does not have (yet) such capability (and will not for next 20-30 years) and for second such policies are not domestically popular.

I do also believe that EU does not want military strikes against Iran because perceived cons outweight pros. The perceived cons include destabilization of Middle-East and economic consequences of high oil prices. These two options (including third, that threat is not acute and isolation does work) were also cited by French authorities in 2002 before attack towards Iraq. I do see EU possibly supporting harsh language, diplomatic isolation and possibly economic sanctions as ultimate ways to deter Iran. I do not see EU going to give US keys to air strikes.

At the same time I also believe that EU countries have been signaled from US that US will ultimately go to military options within next few years. Subsequently EU countries have themselves thought over the issue and came into conclusion that they do not intend to stop war but do allow it to happen and try to stay away from it.

This gives best of all worlds by scoring cheap points with US (useful when next president comes in power), playing home constituencies by being outwardly pacifist and simply making the best out of worst options.

Such stance might appear to be hypochritical to some sensitivities but I believe it is rational course of action if you do believe military actions are coming anyways.

by Nikita on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 05:20:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For second, EU countries have been VERY worried of threats from middle-east including ballistic missiles (notice steady work on SAM systems that allow defence against theatre level missiles) and increase of naval co-operation in Mediterranean (and talk of counterimmigration co-operation).
Seriously, though, I can't see any reason why a middle-eastern nation would want to launch a ballistic missile at an EU country. What could they possibly gain by doing that?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 05:46:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
getting rid of infidels?
payback for centuries of meddling and oppression?
as a blackmail/negotiation tool?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 05:59:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you really believe that?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 06:11:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a faction in Iran that is, so I believe, fatalistic enough to at least consider these reasons as a basis for nuclear use. And that's three steps too far already. I don't know how large that faction is represented in current Iran's government, but the tell-tales are certainly worrying.
by Nomad (Bjinse) on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 05:56:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Iranian position is relatively straightforward.

The majority viewpoint is that nuclear weapons are immoral and do not actually enhance Iranian security; however, they recognise that mastery of the nuclear fuel cycle puts them into a position whereby should there be a credible strategic threat they would be able to weaponise in short order - thereby implicitly reducing the range of strategic threats that they face. This is the virtuous cycle theory that suggests that once they achieve this position then the US will essentially have to accommodate itself to the reality of Iran as a regional power, and will drop the hostility for a more productive relationship as a guarantee that Iran remains within its NPT constraints.

The minority position is that weaponisation is a strategic necessity given the enduring hostility of the US, the presence of nuclear powers in Israel and Pakistan, the lack of a security umbrella that would negate the possibility of a nuclear power knowing it nuke them without payback ( this is conditioned by the utter indifference to Saddam's use of WMD against them ).

Iran's nuclear options have nothing to do with ideology - they are cold, hard calculations based on balance of power/threat arguments.

by londanium on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 11:09:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can't we just, like, get along?
by Nomad (Bjinse) on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 07:30:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
asdf, did you listen to or read Gore's speech from Moday? This administration is arguably the most dangerous executive that has ever ruled America. I find your comments naive...which really worry me...do you not see the danger? Out here we do...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 03:32:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks nikita, for your thought out replay. I actually don't know enough about it to say...so will need to consider your answer a bit...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 07:00:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I disagree with your characterization of the American position on Iran.

First off, there is no evidence that the U.S. is "quite willing to use weaponry (including nuclear weapons)" in this case. If that were the case, then why not simply pull the army out of Iraq and let off a couple of nukes there?

Second, it is doubtful that "EU strategists do strongly believe that US will sit on Middle-East for several decades." This has not been the behavior of the U.S. in the past, and there is no indication that it will be so in the future. Despite many opportunities during the past century, America has not set up an empire based on the occupation of other countries.

Another explanation of the situation is that the United States honestly wants to see moderate, stable, democractic governments in the Middle East, and that the Bush administration misunderstood the difficulty of achieving this, while Europe made a better estimate of the situation.

In any case, one would certainly hope that the geopolitical strategy of Europe would not be in the hands of those whose goal is simply to make political points against the United States.

by asdf on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 09:05:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Every politician I have heard interviewed on this over the past week, including John McCain (R) and Evan Bayh (D) have said the same thing: "military action is a last resort, but we must keep it on the table." It is the same rhetoric we heard back in early 2003.

The reality is that conventional bombing would not diasble Iran's nuclear program - hence the nuclear option.  THe US press is doing its job now and demonizing Iran at every turn.

Dialog International

by DowneastDem (david.vickrey (at) post.harvard.edu) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 10:28:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It should also be noted that the US prefers military options to the real killer which is actually getting involved in direct diplomacy with Iran, the one and only option that is not on the table.

FWIW this position is going to become untenable; the administration doesn't know it yet, but it is in the midst of a paradigm shift over this.

by londanium on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 10:58:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hmmm, would you consider a diary on the paradigm shift?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 23rd, 2006 at 06:16:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The US has not been "occupying foreign countries" but it has stationed hundreds of thousands of troops in hundreds of military bases on dozens of countries.

You may find it doubtful that the US will sit on the Mid-East for decades, but I don't think it's doubtful that that is the European consensus.

There is very little that the geopolitical strategy of Europe can do to change the course of the current US administration, so they just position themselves according to their expectations of future actions on the part of the US. You can call that "making political points against the US", but I don't think that's what it is.

That is, if there were a "geopolitical strategy of Europe" that you could put in anyone's hands. European governments like to talk about Europe but more often than not just act in their own narrowly defined interest. The EU is 25 countries who like to add up their statistics, but they remain 25 countries.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 10:43:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another explanation of the situation is that the United States honestly wants to see moderate, stable, democractic governments in the Middle East, and that the Bush administration misunderstood the difficulty of achieving this, while Europe made a better estimate of the situation.

In which case they're a danger to the world on the basis of being incompetent. If they misunderstood they did so wilfully.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 11:27:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This has not been the behavior of the U.S. in the past

Can you remind me how long did the US stay in the Philippines? My US history is quite rusty and I may have got that wrong...

Another explanation of the situation is that the United States honestly wants to see moderate, stable, democractic governments in the Middle East

Seems reasonable; it also seems like the Bush administration's definition of moderate, stable and democratic also includes being friendly to the US policies and Israel. At this time, it's very likely that an hypothetical truly democratic Middle Eastern country (reflecting the general will of its citizens) would be rather hostile to the US policies and even more to Israel's.
by Bernard (bernard) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 04:53:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The U.S. stayed in the Philippines about 50 years, until 1946. The Subic Bay navy base was closed peacefully in 1992 at the request of the local government. What does this have to do with building an Empire?
by asdf on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 05:08:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, well, the US came to the Phillippines as "liberator" and when the Filipino people took that seriously and demanded their freedom, the US massacred them and then stayed for decades and propped up the dictator Ferdinand Marcos. Don't you think the popular request to leave was maybe motivated by 90 years of colonial history?

Don't call it an empire if you don't want to.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 05:34:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Incidently, if you want to talk about who might be willing to use nuclear weapons, "French President Jacques Chirac has said France would be ready to use nuclear weapons against any state which launched a terrorist attack against it."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4627862.stm

by asdf on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 09:11:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why worrying about ballistic missiles from the Middle East is stupid, unless we're talking about Israel, which owns a couple hundred nukes.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 09:17:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you spell "lame duck president"?
by Bernard (bernard) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 04:29:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
An interesting extension to this question is to ask who, in Iran, benefits from escalating the nuclear issue. And why?

-- #include witty_sig.h
by silburnl on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 08:36:37 AM EST
My knowledge of Iranian internal politics is quite weak. However, this paper gives some ideas on what kind of forces are moving there:

http://www.iss-eu.org/new/analysis/analy118.pdf

However, I would point out that at its most simplistic analysis, the Iranian conservatives would reap benefits from threat of confrontation.

Benefits include:

  1. Ability to make quiet and marginalize internal dissent ("You're either with us or against us")
  2. National pride that allows continuation and perhaps initiation of wanted policies
  3. Iran is powerful regional player and future actions and national power could be reinforced with successful crisis settlement

Notice that Iran (like all other oil rich countries in region) is making a lot of money right now due high oil prices and subsequently it is not economically in dire situation. Thus partial blokades and even stoppages could go on for some time until need of cash (you cannot eat oil) would force all sides to reach some kind of settlement.

You could say that outside obvious geopolitical advantages there are also several domestic political advantages for US administration to get into confrontation with Iran.

by Nikita on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 09:06:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it possible to block the Hormuz straits? If so, a large portion of the US NAvy could be stranded in the gulf, were Bush to make the mistake of attacking Iran...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 03:34:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can block the Strait of Hormuz by shooting missiles from the shores at passing ships or dropping naval mines in the area.

I don't see Iran doing that any time soon. It would be a breach of all international customs on the freedom of navigation (pretty much the oldest and most settled matter of international law) and a clear cut casus belli.
by Francois in Paris on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 07:57:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think bob was referring to a situation where war had already broken out.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 03:27:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh no, I'm not talking of a Iran vs. US casus belli but a Iran vs. the rest of the world casus belli.

Any support Iran has would evaporate instantly if they were littering the Strait with mines or wrecks and no one would give a shit whether or not they did it in self-defense. China, India, Japan and pretty much every other Asian country depend on traffic through this area for oil from Arab states. They would be apoplectic, mad on a unbelievably grand scale.

Naval right of way is an incredibly touchy subject and the case of the Strait of Hormuz is touchy squared. Iran has broad claims on the Strait no one recognizes nor accepts and every now and then, an Iranian diplomatic idiot makes noise on how Iran is committed to the free flow of traffic but reserves the right to assert control on it. Every time they do that, the "diplomatic" reactions are typically very discrete, behind close doors, but very, very forceful, very undiplomatic. And then Iran changes the subject to something less grandiose.

Last time Iran actually fucked with shipping lanes in the Gulf was in 1987 during the tanker war. All they earned was the massive presence of every military navy you can think of and US raids against Iranian installations in broad daylight. Now that the situation on oil supply is even more tense and the Iranian military capabilities more serious than in 87, when it was a mere annoyance, you can bet the international reaction would be vastly more forceful and definitive. It would be truly nasty for Iran.
by Francois in Paris on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 06:20:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you underestimate the impact of a US vs Iran war.

If the US declares war on Iran there will be no way the US will be allowing trade between Iran and anyone else in anyway it can prevent. Thus, the economic pressure that the Asian countries can bring to bear on Iran will be irrelevant as there will be no trade going on anyway.

And frankly, if you have the US Army and Navy parked on your doorstep with orders to "change regime" only a fool would rely on international goodwill to have any impact. Asian countries will only put pressure to end the conflict if they are getting hurt by it. They don't care about Iran, Iran's best strategy is to hurt world oil supplies enough to put pressure on the US to end the war quickly. Then the regime can hope it's military can hold out against the US forces in the region for long enough to ensure regime survival.

It's worth noting that even this strategy has a very low potential for success, but at least it has some potential, so it's liable to occur in the event of a US war on Iran.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 07:12:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not just Iranian oil that goes through Hormuz from Kharg Island (and Iraq's oil, when it's produced at all). It's also Kuwaiti and a good chunk of Saudi oil that goes through and no one would accept this flow to stop.

The oil must flow :>
by Francois in Paris on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 10:08:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And I wasn't thinking of economic pressure.

It would probably bring the first long haul missions of the Indian and Chinese Navies and not just for patrols, but for attacks on anything that floats and bears an Iranian flag.
by Francois in Paris on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 10:13:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the answer to qui bono is easy: the west. the massive escalation of the threats against iran by chirac today shows where countries see their own interests. if iran gets hold of non-conventional deterrents all westerners will be back to eating potatoes and porridge in winter, for the european prosperity rests in big part on the ability of our govts to rape other countries of their wealth. the beneficiaries are we all, like it or not. a good oversight of the why can be read (in german) here: http://heise.de/tp/r4/artikel/21/21802/1.html

the gist of that article is that after the US also europeans are starting to feel the problem of oil scarcity, reason which compels them to act out their old colonialist ways. with any kind of operating nuclear tech in its hands iran would put its vast natural resources beyond the control of "the west". the whole public debate around "terrorism" and whatnot is just window dressing for the european audiences, who for the most part disapprove of colonialist adventures of their govts.

example is the amoral PR around the cote d'ivoire occupation, where french troops along with some UN thugs are "peacekeepers" who stay against the wishes of the local govt and people; the same could be said of the haiti occupation.

asia times - http://www.atimes.com - also has good articles for reference.

by name (name@spammez_moi_sivouplait.org) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 12:08:48 PM EST
Ok, so how many French agree with Chirac on the use of nuclear weapons? Any polls?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 12:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No recent polls. French people almost forgot they have nukes since the collapse of Soviet Union.
by Bernard (bernard) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 04:17:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mururoa mon amour...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 05:36:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The French or other European countries?

In my memory, the Dutch press were going loco on it... In that time, I had not interests (or knowledge) about international affairs, so I am not a good witness...

by Nomad (Bjinse) on Fri Jan 20th, 2006 at 05:46:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

the cote d'ivoire occupation, where french troops along with some UN thugs are "peacekeepers" who stay against the wishes of the local govt and people

The French troops are the only thing preventing a genocide for now. I won't defend French policies in Africa, but this narrow one I have no problem with (of course, you could argue that the French presence is at the root of the reasons there would be a genocide, but considering how things stand, these troops are need now.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 06:00:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

if iran gets hold of non-conventional deterrents all westerners will be back to eating potatoes and porridge in winter, for the european prosperity rests in big part on the ability of our govts to rape other countries of their wealth.

Yes, the ownership of nukes by Russia (formerly, the Soviet Union) has indeed forced us to do without their gas for the past 40 years. Get real.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 06:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mmmm potatoes. Is there anything they can't do?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 19th, 2006 at 06:04:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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