by Alexandra in WMass
Sat Mar 18th, 2006 at 03:58:36 AM EST
Yesterday in Contrat Première Embûche Jérôme and Dodo raised concern about the specter of Le Pen continuing to loom on French politics:
The [CPE] movement is now becoming a major social moment, and the current government is unlikely to stay unscathed. In a sense, the question is whether Villepin will take Sarkozy and Chirac with him, or if he will be destroyed alone. His chances of surviving the crisis appear slim today, and there's a good chance that the right could be nastily tainted. The big worry is that this brings a full year of disorder, which could play into Le Pen's hands. The situation is very fluid and the stakes are getting steadily higher..
From the diaries, with minor format edits ~ whataboutbob
The March poll by tns-sofres put Le Pen at 14% overall (25% among individuals who identify themselves as on the right) as a political personality they hope will play an important role in the months and years to come. Ironically the FN itself doesn't get such high marks. So far this year (2006) 10 to 11% of poll respondents had a favorable opinion of the FN and 79 to 80 had a negative opinion of the FN. In a separate march poll conducted by IFOP Le Pen, with 20%, is second to last among a long list of 50 political figures the French have a good opinion of.
Today Le Monde online has an article about the "risk" youth represent for the presidential hopefuls in the current French government. The article raises some interesting points about youth and their likelihood to vote for the FN, although it also seems to me a somewhat over simplified analysis of a diverse electoral group. Maybe this is another candidate for article deconstruction? Then again it's "just" a newspaper article not a PhD thesis.
The Le Monde article points out that youth represent only 15 % of the electorate but their political allegiances are more volatile. They are more likely to abstain then older voters, are often undecided voters and, especially those with no diploma, are more likely to make a protest vote (a long time French tradition especially on the first round of presidential elections).
According to the director of the polling agency TNS- Sofre quoted in The Le Monde article:
"The images of the large demonstrations of youth against the FN between the two presidential election rounds in 2002 have imposed the preconceived idea that youth are very much against the extreme right ... but it's a mistake. On the contrary, Jean-Marie Le Pen has a hard core of support among 18-24 year olds"
"For about 15 years now" explains Pascal Perrineau, researcher at Cevipof and specialist on the extreme right "we see very noticeably, in the interviews that we conduct, the degree to which a category of young men, suffering in their social status and shaken in their male identity, often find a particular resonance in the authoritarian and nationalist themes developed by the Front national."
On April 21st 2001, they gave their votes to Jean-Marie Le Pen to the point of putting him on equal footing with Jacques Chirac and Lionel Jospin. In all the recent surveys, they continue to be tempted by the FN vote, as a rejection of the current political options.
The rejection, or at best the dissatisfaction, continues to be widely shared by all 18 to 24 year olds. Youth rarely define themselves positively with regards to politics. They are "not on the left" or "against Villepin" regarding the CPE rather then members of a particular cause. Their great responsiveness to audiovisual medias takes care of the rest. "In 1995, 60% of 18-24 year olds (as opposed to 48% for the total population) said they chose their candidate thanks to television" recalls Anne Muxel [researcher at Cevipof]"we can assume that this tendency has only increased". Thus the imposing success of candidates who have a distinctive discourse in this political swap which, they think, does not represent them.
Les images des grands défilés de jeunes contre le FN dans l'entre-deux-tours de la présidentielle de 2002 ont imposé l'idée reçue que les jeunes sont très opposés à l'extrême droite ... Mais c'est une erreur. Au contraire, Jean-Marie Le Pen dispose d'un noyau dur parmi les 18-24 ans."
"Depuis une quinzaine d'années déjà, explique Pascal Perrineau, chercheur au Cevipof et spécialiste de l'extrême droite, nous voyons très nettement, dans les entretiens que nous menons, combien toute une catégorie de jeunes hommes, en souffrance sociale et ébranlés dans leur identité masculine, trouvent une résonance particulière dans les grandes thématiques autoritaires et nationalistes développées par le Front national."
Le 21 avril 2002, ils ont apporté leurs voix à Jean-Marie Le Pen au point de le placer à jeu égal avec Jacques Chirac et Lionel Jospin. Dans toutes les enquêtes récentes, ils continuent d'être tentés par le vote FN, par rejet de l'offre politique existante.
Ce rejet, ou au mieux cette insatisfaction, reste largement partagé par l'ensemble des 18-24 ans. Les jeunes se définissent rarement de façon positive lorsqu'il s'agit de politique. Ils sont "pas de gauche" ou "contre Villepin" sur le CPE plus qu'adhérents à une cause. Leur très grande sensibilité aux médias audiovisuels fait le reste. "En 1995, 60 % des 18-24 ans (contre 48 % de l'ensemble de la population) disaient avoir choisi leur candidat par la télévision, rappelle Anne Muxel [chercheur au Cevipof]. On peut supposer que cette tendance n'a fait que s'accentuer." D'où le succès écrasant des candidats ayant un discours tranchant nettement sur un marais politique qui, pensent-ils, ne les représente pas.
I added some additional translation of the article and some numbers on youth votes for Le Pen in the 2002 elections
here in the comments
