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Willingness to accept change : a major strength of the US economy ?

by Agnes a Paris Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 11:14:07 AM EST

Change is not always comfortable, but it is a necessity for progress. The pain inflicted on those who are on the destroyed end of Joseph Schumpeter's "creative destruction" can be great, but without it, the U.S. would not have progressed as quickly as it has, especially in moving away from an industrial economy.

The speed of the destruction process has become all too obvious in recent years, as new technologies have combined with globalization to create a period of near-total dislocation in the world economy.
The decimation of the U.S. industrial sector, as seen most recently in the problems faced by Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp., has dramatically changed patterns of employment and production.

Yet the overall economy has remained extremely resilient. The unemployment rate, on average, has been lower during the last 10 years (5.0%) than during any 10-year period since 1965-1974. Source: BIT(Geneva)
Growth in productivity has been strong as well, keeping real GDP rising strongly in spite of weaker labor-force growth. Average hourly earnings have continued to rise, though the recent Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances shows a slowing of growth and a continued widening of income differentials.

I was wondering whether we Europeans have something to learn from that ability to successfully sustain change, the pain and losses caused by donwsizing, corporations disappearing, new ones growing up and renewed hopes coming along.
Is that the flexibility our governments call for? May be. The thread is yours.


Corporate Leaders Have Changed
Top U.S. Corporations (Excluding Oil Firms)
Ranked by Market Capitalization  

  1959  
1  AT&T  
2  General Motors    
3  DuPont  
4  General Electric  
5  Union Carbide  
6  U.S. Steel  
7  IBM  
8  Sears, Roebuck  
9  Aluminum Co. of America  
10 Bethlehem Steel  

2006
1  General Electric  
2  Microsoft  
3  Citigroup  
4  Bank of America  
5  Procter & Gamble  
6  Pfizer  
7  Wal-Mart  
8  Johnson & Johnson  
9  American International Group  
10 Altria  

In 1959, the list of largest firms was dominated by large manufacturers. Today, the service sector dominates. Only one firm remains on the list from 1959: General Electric Co. In 1959, there were no financial firms in the top 10; today, there are three. Five of the top firms did not even exist in 1959, at least in a similar form.

The rise of the financial sector reflects the deregulation of the late 1970s and 1980s.
There were no financial companies in the top 10 in 1959, which was the first year bank stocks were traded on the NYSE. At that time, banks could operate in only one state, and in most states, they could only operate in one county or region of the state. Illinois, for example, did not even allow banks to have branches within the same city.
The restrictions on mergers between banks and other financial institutions have also been relaxed since 1959. The three financial institutions in the top 10 are the result of mergers among institutions that were around in 1959 but were much smaller.

If deregulation pulled the financial companies into the top tier, it pushed AT&T out. AT&T virtually was the sector in 1959. However, if the proposed AT&T/BellSouth merger goes through, the combined company will rank 11th in market cap (10th when excluding energy), nosing out Altria Group Inc. for the last spot on the table.

Seven of the 10 largest companies in 1959 were large traditional manufacturers. One, General Electric Co., has changed dramatically, with manufacturing no longer dominating the company.
The other six have shrunk relative to the economy or disappeared through merger or bankruptcy.
Consumer manufacturing companies (including pharmaceuticals) have replaced them on the list, with four of the top 10 now in this category. Interestingly, there is still one retailer, as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has replaced Sears, Roebuck and Co.

Are we in Europe ready to accept the idea that the cycle of corporation life is one of life and death ? Is that what flexibility is about?

My opinion is that flexibility is not gained by abolishing contractual boundaries and mutual obligations. On the contrary, freedom makes no sense without rules. That works for individuals, but also on a "global village scale", the one of economy. Flexibility is not releasing the most ruthless instincts. Without regulations, corporations are wolves for each other, and men within them are bound to fall pray to that contest.
Hence my deep belief that we in France are doing things wrong.  

Display:
I'm sorry, but I don't quite follow: What is France doing that you find to be wrong?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 12:11:44 PM EST
The security net of social laws so far regulating labour relations is being torn, as a sacrifice to goddess flexibility.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 07:32:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It would be interesting to see a list of the top companies in France (or somewhere) for comparable dates...
by asdf on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 10:18:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed, I shall try and find something ...

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 05:04:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
from Boursorama

  1. Total (oil, existed as CFP in the 60s, State-owned)
  2. Sanofi-Aventis (pharmaceuticals. One bit was Rhone-Poulenc, which probably was pretty big in the 60s)
  3. EDF (utility, privatised a couple months ago)
  4. BNP Paribas (bank, the result of numerous mergers, most of them in the public sector back then)
  5. Axa (insurance, was a small local mutual insurance company in the 60s)
  6. Société Générale (bank, was State-owned in the 60s, did exist as such)
  7. L'Oréal (cosmetics, was a much smaller company, private, and possibly already quoted)
  8. France Télécom (telco, was not even a company, but a ministerial department until 15 years ago; privatised in 1997)
  9. Crédit Agricole (bank, was a mutual bank then, probably already pretty big)
  10. Suez (utility, existed as Lyonnaise des Eaux and Indosuez, which merged in the 90s)
  11. LVMH (luxury goods, again, the result of several mergers - of privately owned companies)
  12. Vivendi (media/entertainment, existed as Compagnie Générale des Eaux - the water business has been spun off as Veolia)
  13. Carrefour (retail, like Wal-Mart, created in the 60s from nothing)
  14. GDF (utility, State-owned until last year)
  15. Danone (foods, existed, created by one of the most famous takeover battles of the 60s)
  16. EADS (created from various French and German and Spanish bits)
  17. Renault (cars, existed, State-owned)
  18. Dexia (bank, was a ministerial dept. until the early 1990s, merged with a Belgian communal bank in 1996)
  19. Arcelor (steel, the fusion of various steel companies, many of which were nationalised at some point)
  20. Scheider Electric (industrial goods, was probably around in the 60s in the top group)


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 05:30:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
in the US hasn't really remained resilient. There was a bounce in the early 90s caused by the end of the Cold War, and then more during the Internet bubble - which saw some strong innovation and real wealth creation, but was also unquestionably a bubble.

From 2001 onwards growth has been funded mostly by military deficit spending and debt. This shouldn't count as real growth, but because the figures are massaged - especially the unemployment figures - the real picture is a lot less healthy than simple-minded indicators like GDP can indicate.

For the 95% of the population that matters, wage growth has stalled, layoffs are more and more common, and real inflation - in the sense of everyday living costs, driven by health insurance, housing and utility prices - has spiralled towards the stratosphere.

Effectively most people are living in a highly inflationary environment, where income is buying less and less because prices are increasing. But because this isn't being acknowledged by lenders, debt costs aren't necessarily dropping accordingly. So there's an inflationary trap waiting for many people - and many are falling into it as bankrupts.

The top 5% of course are doing better than ever, which is skewing the statistics just a little.

What the EU can learn from this is not to let criminals run its political and financial systems, and that a mix of free markets with intelligent regulation - as opposed to pointless and bureaucratic regulation - seems to be the most reliable way to create real prosperity.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 12:29:52 PM EST
The US economy may be powered by debt, but I'm not so sure about its being powered by defense spending. According to the chart on the last page of this (DoD) presentation
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Feb2006/d20060206slides.pdf
the defense budget is about as low as it has been since the 1930s. The trend is going the wrong way, but even including the cost of the war in Iraq it's not hugely out of proportion to how it's been in the past.

(Note: I'm not completely sure that the figure quoted in this chart includes "supplemental" money that's above the baseline DoDo budget, but even if it doesn't, the defense spending is not out of line with the past.)

by asdf on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 10:50:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
an old diary of mine on the US debt topic.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 05:11:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The administration loves to show the US military budget as part of the GDP, it is a relatively meaningless indicator.

Here is another view of the same data. The percentage of the military as a fraction of the federal budget.

http://www.warresisters.org/piechart.htm

The fact is the the military uses up half of the federal taxes that are collected. This is a much higher percentage than in other industrialized countries and means that the US taxpayers get less in the way of social services, or infrastructure improvements for their taxes than those the other countries. Not only does this make life harder than it need be for the underclass, but is leading to a steady decline in US competitiveness. The effects are already being seen as a loss in jobs and a rise in the foreign debt.


Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 09:14:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It also pays for massive subsidies of industrial R&D and academic R&D.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 09:19:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Average hourly earnings have continued to rise, though the recent Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances shows a slowing of growth and a continued widening of income differentials.

Ummh - wages have been stagnant for much of the population for a very long time. If you're in the bottom forty percent or so the past few decades of growth have given you nada. Next forty percent not much. Top 20% it's been good. Top five percent it's been very good. Top 1 percent it's been incredible.

The other thing is that the price for all this creative destruction is never paid for by the people on the top of the companies that fall victim too it - they get their multimillion dollar severance packages.

The trick is to get both growth and to make sure that most people get the benefits of that growth. Without the first you can't have the latter, without the second who cares how the economy is doing.  

You'd think the neoliberals would get this, considering their hostility to high marginal tax rates.  For your average European looking at the US it's as if they're being told - do this and your income will increase but that extra money will be taxed at a ninety or hundred percent marginal rate.  You'll also get more economic insecurity. And this is supposed to be appealing?  How inclined would executives be to adopt policies that would increase the profits of the company but would not give them any more money while increasing the chance of losing their jobs?

by MarekNYC on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 01:19:34 PM EST
For 2005 the US savings rate was negative. The last time this happened was in the middle of the 1930's depression. This means that people were using up their saved capital. The US is on the edge of some sort of major economic event. The reversal in the long term bond yields (that is, long term returns are less than short term) is also taken as a sign of an economic downturn.

Europe should certainly learn from the US experience. Policies of the past 30+ years are an example of what not to do.

My gloomy forecast:

Coming Crash

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 05:22:45 PM EST
Several of the former world powers have adapted when they lost power. The most recent being England, Germany, Spain, Holland, Portugal and Japan. In each case they had a global network of client states which were forced to operate at a disadvantage. In most case their domination did not end quietly, but was the result of losing a contest with some rival empire. However they lost their dominant position, they are all now moderate members of the world community, with fairly successful economies, and good levels of social services for the bulk of their population.
The amount of grief that Spain, Germany and Japan went through is appalling. Also, Spain took at least 200 years to recover. In my view the 200 years prior to that were of crisis. Luckily the pace of history has picked up somewhat since then.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 05:59:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From Jeremy Siegel's book, "The Future for Investors": In the book he discusses how the US problem of supporting the aging baby boomers will likely be solved, a problem that he points out is much more severe, just looking at the demographics, in Europe and Japan.  He points out that the demographics in the rapidly growing eastern part of the world are somewhat the opposite as the West, and this will lead to the East buying Western assets in return for the expenses to support life in retirement.
The global solution will have vast implications for investors.  The center of the economic world will move eastward.  Chinese and Indian investors, as well as others from the world's emerging nations, will eventually own most of the world's capital, as tens of trillions of dollars of assets will be transferred from the retirees of the United States, Japan and Europe to the savers and producers of the emerging nations.  The global solution also implies that the developed world will run large and increasing trade deficits with the developing world.  The importation of foreign goods in exchange for our assets is an inevitable consequence of our demographically driven future.
The model that we have historically used, that a current account deficit simply means we are borrowing from our future, is actually not a complete model.  Countries in the west have huge value built up in assets, for example companies with brand names such as Coke and McDonalds; companies with patents such as the pharmaceutical and medical device companies.  Ownership of these companies today is heavily American--in the form of personal ownership, but also in the form of millions of 401k plans in the hands of the aging baby boomers.  Obviously these savings are going to be cashed in, and spent in retirement--why else did these boomers forego spending all of their money in the present, and put a fair amount of it into savings (in the case of 401k's, company matched savings) that have compounded for decades.  

This is yet another change that the West will have to accept.  It will not be only their children that are buying up these saved assets,,,it will be the new producers of the East.  China and India in particular have hundreds of millions of people looking for jobs and fair pay (actually far less than fair pay in Western terms).  They will invest in these Western assets in return for supporting us in our old age.

The book is a great read, and lays out the supporting economics in much more detail than the paragraph I have quoted.

by wchurchill on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 03:45:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What on earth are you talking about?


why else did these boomers forego spending all of their money in the present, and put a fair amount of it into savings (in the case of 401k's, company matched savings) that have compounded for decades.  

US consumers are NOT SAVING ANYTHING, despite being, for the most part (the babyboom generation) in their supposed peak saving years.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 05:34:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bernanke, sorry I know some don't like his economics
Indeed, increases in home values, together with a stock-market recovery that began in 2003, have recently returned the wealth-to-income ratio of U.S. households to 5.4, not far from its peak value of 6.2 in 1999 and above its long-run (1960-2003) average of 4.8.
I wish I had more time to dig into the government definition of savings, and the difference between that and the net worth of householders.  (But basically savings is different than investing and the growth on your investment)  Baby Boomer savings have been invested over the last 30 years, and as the above quote shows, even average wealth to income levels are near their all time "bubble" high, and IMHO we are not now in a bubble.  
So if the average American household has 5.4 wealth to income ratio, what would the ratio of the boomers, 5 years from retirement be?  I don't know, but certainly higher--in my experience one's wealth to income ratio is below 1.0 until you reach something like 38 years old.  The baby boomers are now between 42 and 60 years old, with 5 to 23 more years to save, and let their investments grow.  I could see the upper end of the boomers having a 10:1 ratio, with 5--10 more years left.

Statistics show your retirement spending drops, say 30--50%--I'm winging that number, you can correct if you'd like.  But the wealth growth to retirement;, the lower spending level at retirement; the downsizing of your home at retirement; social security which the boomers will get (though they're screwing their children and grandchildren by not fixing it) + for the luckier ones a pension.  of course there will be healthcare costs that should eat up some of this, but that included in the statistics that show your spending levels drop.

Sure sounds like some assets available to sell to me.  Who do you think owns the trillions of dollars of worth in the stock market?  It's mainly Americans now,401K plans, pension funds, and individuals, particularly those nearing retirement.

Siegel's book is a good read.

by wchurchill on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 04:42:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US economy has seen a revival of productivity growth since 1995. From 1948 to 1973, US labor productivity grew at about 2.5% to 3% per year. From 1974 to 1995 the growth rate diminished to about 1% per year.

Now it looks like the US has labor productivity growth back up to 2% to 2.5% per year for the foreseeable future.

Although some of this may be due to data manipulation, there is also something of a consensus that information technology and associated reforms of organizational practices to promote decentralized decision making and employee involvement have also boosted productivity.

So some of the European problem may be in how corporations are run. I'm not an expert on this, and I would like to hear from people with more knowledge and experience on this topic. Do European firms tend to be run in a top-down centralized manner?

It also seems that social partnership and codetermination institutions would help European firms unlock productivity gains from investments in info technology that are starting to be made now.

The other thing the US might have is a propensity for "early adoption" of new techniques. Maybe the "tipping point" for new technologies comes faster in the US than in Europe?

For example, it is often said that European-style universal health systems are barriers to innovation, but this view does not seem to be entirely accurate:

High-technology medical equipment is frequently cited as the main driver of escalating health spending. Although the United States tends to be an early adopter of medical technologies, it does not acquire medical technology at high levels once the technology has diffused widely.

So again the "advantage" of the US is in early adoption of new medical technologies, but not in overall diffusion.

Is this the result of some cultural difference between the US and Europe?

by TGeraghty on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 05:26:20 PM EST
The other thing I would mention is that the United States looks better than Europe on two dimensions - GDP (income/output) and unemployment.

Now, the advantage in GDP is illusory, when we take into consideration broader measures of living standards that include leisure time, inequality, health, stress, social mobility, environmental sustainability, Europe is ahead in all of these areas.

Also don't forget that the most socialistic economies in Europe - Scandinavia - are also the most globally competitive, even by "mainstream" analyses.

So that leaves unemployment, which is a problem in a few big European countries, especially France, Germany, Italy, and Spain.

The most important thing that could be done is to coordinate different macroeconomic policies - fiscal, monetary, and wage-setting in an expansionary way. This is the real secret to the Dutch and Irish job-creating "miracles."

Wage moderation was the key reform . . . The effectiveness of wage moderation . . . owes much to the consensual nature of the wage agreements. The terms that were worked out had the backing of the unions, the government, and employers. Also contributing to the success of this initiative was the decision to include provisions for income tax cuts that would offset the adverse effects of wage limits on workers' net earnings.

The Netherlands experienced employment growth higher than that in the US and achieved an unemployment rate of less than 3%, but Germany's unemployment rate remained at high levels. . . . The reasons for this seem instead to be rooted in coordinated monetary, wage and fiscal policies in the Netherlands while these are incompatible policies in Germany.

In addition to tax cuts, I don't see why job-creating public investments could not also be part of the mix too.

by TGeraghty on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 05:40:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Dutch employment miracle was due to extremely high numbers of people classifed as "handicapped" and thus not counted in the active population, and a housng bubble. Since that bubble popped 3 years ago, unemployment has shot up nastily.

Note that the UK has the exact same props: lots of non-unemployed handicapped and a huge housing bubble.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 07:13:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I doubt that the whole miracle was "due to" a housing bubble, as you say.

In fact, I would argue that you have the causality backwards; the macro policies that led to the economic boom also enabled a housing bubble, just as they are doing in Ireland now, and as they have done in the US (the stock bubble of the late 1990s). Sure, once the bubbles got going they contributed to the expansion, but they are not the whole story.

We might go further and ask why asset bubbles seem to be features of European and American economic expansions lately, and what we might do about that (in ways that don't choke off broader economic expansion).

At any rate, I stand by my point that coordinated expansionary macro-policy (both within and between countries) is the most important thing to do to relieve the European unemployment problem.

by TGeraghty on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 01:05:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's also somewhat misleading just to look at disability policy, where the Netherlands is worse that the rest of the continent, if you take all the categories of social assistance together the Dutch look rather better:

While in the Netherlands disability is exceptionally high, this holds for unemployment in Belgium, old age and early retirement in France and social assistance in the UK and Denmark. From that perspective the Dutch overall position is among the best in Europe

Kind of like just comparing the US to Europe in terms of GDP.

by TGeraghty on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 01:14:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fair enough. It's just that the dominant discourse blames some kinds of non work (unemployment, early retirement) than others for the supposed "failure" of a country's economy.

Do you have a link and more numbers where you got your quote?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 05:38:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Note: comparing economies is fraught with danger and should not be attempted without the assistance of a responsible adult.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 05:41:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, I forgot to embed the link. Here it is:

Disability in the Netherlands: Another Dutch disease?

It's a pdf file. Take a look especially at figure 2 and the associated discussion.

by TGeraghty on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 04:31:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think the UK is dealing with a housing bubble anywhere near the size of the US bubble.  You can still buy a decent house in Britain for just over $100k (55-65,000 pounds), depending on the area.  Obviously, you're shit-out-of-luck if you want to buy in London these days, but has it ever not been so in London (or New York or Tokyo or whatever)?

Isn't Blair trying to move non-unemployed "handicapped" people back into the labor market?  I think he's doing this to free up some capacity, because Britain's unemployment does seem to be fairly low.  I see a great deal of capacity left in the US, and the wage growth seems to provide evidence for it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 08:55:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can in the U.S., too. The high prices are in eastern cities and in new sprawling developments in the west.
by asdf on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 09:22:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right, but I'm comparing major cities.  You can't find anything for a reasonable price in most cities along the Atlantic coast -- from Miami, all the way up to Boston -- whereas I've looked through the online ads in Britain and found very nice houses in major cities, like Manchester, Birmingham and Nottingham, for fairly low prices.

Granted, they're small townhouses, but a one-bedroom townhouse in northern Palm Beach County, where I grew up (when it was cheap), now sells for $400-500k.  Townhouses in Charleston and Savannah go for about a million.

My main point is that prices have hit insane levels here in the states, and that it doesn't seem to have gotten quite so out-of-hand in Britain.  But you're right about finding decent prices in some areas.  Atlanta is still floating below the clouds, and I've heard a few other major cities have low prices.  The coasts and the inland West are just mind-blowing, though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 10:18:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Drew, wait until you see the square footage of living space. You'd be buying what in suburbia passes for a walk-in closet.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 10:22:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I know.  But that doesn't bother me.  I like things to be small.  I drive a small car.  We live in a fairly large apartment -- about 900 sq. ft. -- and it's a bit much for me, but we signed the lease because it was close to campus, and because our contract requires the rent to remain the same (so the price gradually falls in real terms).

Funny story: One of the satellite tv companies called us a few months ago, saying that our cable bills were going to rise, and that we should -- shock of all shocks! -- switch providers.  I replied by saying, "Well, Joe, our cable price is built into our rent, and our rent can't rise.  The cable bill, therefore, cannot change.  So why did you lie to me?"  He, of course, apologized and hung up the phone.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 10:36:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but a four bedroom 3500 square foot home with a large fenced in yard in the ex-burbs of Chicago sells for $350,000--obviously depending on the area, but this is a nice area--not Lake Forest nice.

and go to smaller towns in the midwest and you get incredible deals.

and as you say, London is so out of sight.  I'm not so sure the bubbles are that different, from what I've seen.  

by wchurchill on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 08:56:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Out of interest, how far is the ex-urb you mention from the centre of the city? Thdre's lots of talk about ex-urbs, but I've never really gotten a sense of how far away they are...
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sat Mar 11th, 2006 at 05:20:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
good question, and I'm not sure this is formally defined anywhere, except when the news reporters are trying to explain election results.  But the area I'm talking about and referred to as an ex-urb is 50 miles outside the city of Chicago.  There are very large shopping malls out there, with every thing you need to buy.  The housing is similar to closer in suburbs in the sense of having housing developments, but the homes are larger with more land and much less expensive.  But there are also large blocks of land that have old farmhouses, or a newly built home--think lots of land, open land, with developments along the wsay.  Some of the ex-urbs have well developed small towns, with shopping, but also the things you have in small towns,,,theatres, book stores, starbucks, churches.  

There are sizeable businesses out there--there is lots of land, so they are ususally set up in a campus style setting.  So most of the people that live there, either work in the ex-urb, or a neighboring ex-urb.  Commutes of the people I know there are 10 minutes to 1/2 hour one way--that is if they work there too.

There are also trains that take you into Chicago--very nice trains with comfortable cars--and put you in downtown Chicago.  That commute would be 40 minutes or so, plus the transport on both ends.

Some people choose to drive to Chicago each day, and that commute, particularly during rush hour, is truly horrific--1 and 1/2 hours at least.  However if your work schedule allows it, and you can go in early, like leave at 6am or before, you can make it in 50 minutes with a little speeding.  Automated tolls, where you don't even slow down--they're really open lanes--allow the technology to zap your car, charge you, and avoid that horrible pile-up of paying manuel tolls.  They did a great job at this.

Great areas for raising a family.  But when you're an empty nester, I would think most people like those on this website, with broad interests including strong cultural interests, would want to move into the city.  But maybe that's just me.  I would only live today in the center of London for example,,,I wouldn't care for Windsor, though beautiful, because it's too far out.

by wchurchill on Sat Mar 11th, 2006 at 10:50:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tell me exactly the parameters you're comparing. What is the required distance from the big city? What is the definition of big city? It's true that you can't buy a cheap decent house in Boston, but you can in Worcester, 50 miles away. Or suburbs of Providence.
by asdf on Sat Mar 11th, 2006 at 12:31:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
leisure time, inequality, health, stress, social mobility, environmental sustainability, Europe is ahead in all of these areas.

I'd like to see a bit more discussion of this broad claim.

by asdf on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 11:07:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Especially of the social mobility part.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 01:15:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's an old diary of mine that talks about the mobility issue.

Turns out that in the US (and UK) your income is far more dependent on your parent's income than in many European countries.

by TGeraghty on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 02:35:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This was an interesting, and from many people's perspective, a very surprising study.  It would be nice to see more work in this area, to better understand it.  I just have many European friends who have come to the US because of, in their view, the upward mobility offered here.  I'm not being defensive, I would just like to understand it better.  What is the impact of the rapidly growing Latino population on these numbers for example?  there has been a reluctance to adopt to English in the first generation--is that a significant part of this?  I really don't know, but would like to understand the subgroups of people that drive these statistics.
by wchurchill on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 03:58:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The less transfer of wealth there is from the richer to the poorer the more luck determines how socially mobile you can be. If you screw up or are unlucky in the US you are less likely to be able to recover than in Europe - if you get sick for instance. That study is only a surprise if you don't understand how the system magnifies the effects of luck.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 04:04:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you shouldn't confuse "better mobility from the top 40% to the top 20%" with better general mobility. The US attracts a lot of talented immigrants who are motivated by that 40 -> 20 transition, which the US provides for. Unfortunately, it's not really a good measure of meaningful mobility across society as a whole. It's also an economic model with some long term problems.

The other issue is of course that the US still runs on the myth of mobility. It will probably take another 30 years of US mobility staying at it's current low level before the "zeitgeist" catches up with the statistics and people's decisions reflect reality, rather than myth.

The long term decline of manufacturing has taken various parts of education and health-care out of the reach of the bottom. Individually this doesn't matter, but over the whole the effects begin to tell. That's pretty much where the mobility problem starts, economically.

My guess is that the language issue is a red herring, because mobility in native speakers has declined precipitously in line with the decline in "working class incomes."

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 06:25:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Assuming that they are not trying to make it as a construction worker, a cashier or a cleaner, I would guess they have got a free (or mostly free) education in Europe. That helps in starting of from the top 40%. They might even already had the advantage of european social mobility in getting into good schools without the right parents, and there got to know the right people for starting of a career which led them to the US. Of course it does not apply to all emigrants from Europe to US, but I do not know anybody in the US who did not come there with an education.

I find that Paris Hilton show (Simple Life?) interesting with regards to the myth of mobility. From what I have seen it seems focused on emphasasing the difference between the extremly wealthy and the poor sobs on the bottom of the pyramid. I guess from a wealthy perspective it might be fun the rich mingling with the poor, on the precondition that they can not ever be of the same social status.

Sort of like comedies where a man dresses as a woman and that is the whole joke. (He is a man, but he is dressed like a woman!) Fun from clashing categories of different status while preserving the status difference.

To me Simple Life (as I will assume it is called) speaks a loud and clear message of class difference and lack of mobility.

So I am not sure it will take another 30 years.

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by A swedish kind of death on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 10:49:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, 30 years is a pessimistic estimate based on my assessment of the ability of most people to understand the prevailing conditions around them...

(i.e. I think people are so blinkered, it will take 30 years for the myth to be supplanted by reality.)

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sat Mar 11th, 2006 at 05:21:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is indeed a very good topic for debate. Unfortunately we would need a comprehensive set of figures to kick off the debate and I confess I am very bad at finding right figures on the right websites. I apologise for that.

When through hell, just keep going. W. Churchill
by Agnes a Paris on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 05:06:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
which I quoted here yesterday morning:


Meanwhile, time has been transformed throughout the economy as the security net of benefits has torn. Thirty years ago, industrial labourers were menaced when plants went bust; today uncertain pensions and healthcare have become middle-class problems. The risks of space have compounded those of time. A generation ago the work exported to low-wage countries were routine, manual jobs; today, computer programming and architectural engineering can be profitably exported to India, China and Brazil.

Instability can be an opportunity - if you have real wealth to invest, or are young and unattached, or an immigrant exploring cracks in the labour force. If you are dutiful but not brilliant at work, if you have children and a mortgage, if you are worried about old-age hardship, then instability does not equal opportunity.

How did the middle slice of workers wind up in this fraught position? After the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreements in the early 1970s, a sea of capital flooded the world and it was "impatient capital", in the words of Bennett Harrison, the economist, capital looking for short-term returns on share prices rather than longer-term dividends on profits. (...) To turn a business around quickly, the command centre must be able to act decisively without bureaucratic muffling. Modern technologies have helped companies strip out their middle layers of bureaucracy, and so shorten the chain of command.

(...) More important, the short-term, lean, high-tech company has become the sex symbol of the business world. Mid-level, middle-aged, stable workers detract from the allure: they appear in managerial manuals devoted to the new economy as "ingrown bureaucrats" who are "resistant to change". A company can sex itself up practically by replacing mid-level bureaucracy with technology, by exporting technical work to low-wage countries, or simply by enforcing a work ethos in which all employees are treated as young, unencumbered and driven.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 9th, 2006 at 07:16:42 PM EST
No question that the world has become much more competitive in terms of jobs.  While Singapore, as an example, in the '60's and '70's was very happy to just have manufacturing jobs come to their country, but the late '80's they wanted the next level up--the engineering jobs, the R&D jobs, and hoped the manufacturing would go to Malaysia, Thailand, etc.  And as time goes on, this cycle continues.

Perhaps this gets at the crux of Agnes' article.  You've got to be open to change in this more open global environment, that offers not just people to work on production lines, but very educated people who can make significant contributions to society.  It's a miracle when you look at it from a world point of views--people in LDC's that just have not had these opportunities now do.  But it's tough on the establishment, which in this case is us in the West.

by wchurchill on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 04:05:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is one of the best commets I have read on here. Frequently the "rest of the world" seems ignored in Eurocentric debates. However, what is happening in the rest of the world is what Europe has to respond to.
by observer393 on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 06:38:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree, the world has become a far more competative place. Just back up a hundred years and most of the world was divided and organised to send the loot to Europe and the US. Then there was some nice free-trade going on between the ruling countries of the world.

The question is how we respond to the change of the world. The ultra-richs answer looks like grabbing as much as they can as fast as they can.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Mar 10th, 2006 at 11:03:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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