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This does NOT help Turkey and Greece

by Upstate NY Tue May 23rd, 2006 at 09:58:18 AM EST

Turkish and Greek fighter jets collide.


This event will catalyze very negative forces in both countries, and it will have the potential to derail support for Turkey's EU accession in Greece. It is mostly negative for the Greek side for two reasons. Turkey has been advocating "dialogue" over issues concerning control of Aegean islands. Greece has simply been advocating legal recourse (i.e. take your boundary disputes to a world court, EU court, etc.). Ever since the two countries almost went to war in 1996 over a small island, this has been the prevailing thinking on the issue. This crash MAY have thrust that thinking forward a bit.

In both countries, politicians will be forced to deal with Turkey's land claims on the Aegean.

Great. just what we all need....more conflict...

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Tue May 23rd, 2006 at 10:02:35 AM EST
You never know, this might galvanise people into doing something useful.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue May 23rd, 2006 at 10:03:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It won't.

The fault lines are fixed.

by Upstate NY on Tue May 23rd, 2006 at 10:09:48 AM EST
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I note that the Greek government is playing down the issue to an almost ridiculous extent given the circumstances. Both sides are showing every sign that they want to bury this - but the apparent death of the Greek pilot will not help.

I note also that every time there is some internal problem in Turkey, Turkish fighter planes roam over the Aegean with greater frequency. (The issue is one of airspace and borders - the Turkish airforce refuses to send flight plans for the Athens FIR, because it doesn't reckognize its jurisdiction - things are even worse with the sea borders with Turkey's official position being that if Greece expands its sea borders to twelve miles - as it is theoretically legally entitled to, this will be a casus belli - war. The issue is complicated of course but Turkey until recently refused to go to the Hague to resolve it. Theoretically again this will be indeed resolved in the Hague sometime during the accession process).

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Tue May 23rd, 2006 at 02:09:34 PM EST
I can't imagine Turkey wanting to make anything of this, particularly now when they're massing forces in eastern Anatolia.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt št gmail dotcom) on Tue May 23rd, 2006 at 03:20:36 PM EST
It's not a matter of Turkey and Greece going to war over this. It's matter of public opinion in Greece hardening against Turkey and demanding that Turkey bring all its territorial claims on Greece to international courts, or else. That will force any Greek supporters of Turkey's accession to chasten.

If you look at the map, you'll see that the island of Karpathos is well into Greece's Aegean perimter. This is NOT a border issue. But, in the recent past, Turkey has laid to Greek terriotry well within the Greek borders. They also claim the island of Gavdos as thier own, and that island is next to Crete.

by Upstate NY on Tue May 23rd, 2006 at 09:31:56 PM EST
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