by TGeraghty
Thu Jun 29th, 2006 at 04:00:11 AM EST
What do people think about the following proposal: re-rank the teams before the knockout round (based on points, with goal differential as the first tie-breaker and goals scored as the 2nd) and make the match-ups based on performance in the group stages?
The reason I ask is, let's face it, Italy (unless they royally screw up) has essentially already been gifted a place in the semifinals due to scheduling quirks, despite a relatively mediocre performance. Of the 8 group winners they are 6th based on points, goal differential, and goals scored, but they will only have had to beat Australia (16th) and Ukraine (10th) to make the semis.
Meanwhile, the most impressive performer in the first round was Spain (1st), who were rewarded by having had to beat not only France (13th) but also Brazil (3rd) to reach the semis. Plus, on Friday either Germany (2nd) or Argentina (5th) will be out. That game seems more like it should be a final or semifinal than a quarterfinal. It doesn't seem fair.
These would be the rankings based on first round performance:
1 Spain
2 Germany
3 Brazil
4 Portugal
5 Argentina
6 Italy
7 Switzerland
8 England
9 Netherlands
10 Ukraine
11 Ecuador
12 Ghana
13 France
14 Sweden
15 Mexico
16 Australia
So the knockout round matchups would have been:
1 Spain
16 Australia
8 England
9 Netherlands
4 Portugal
13 France
5 Argentina
12 Ghana
3 Brazil
14 Sweden
6 Italy
11 Ecuador
7 Switzerland
10 Ukraine
2 Germany
15 Mexico
Then, by seeds (except for Swi-Ukr which was actually played), quarterfinals would be:
Spain-England
Portugal-Argentina
Brazil-Italy
Ukraine-Germany
BTW, just for fun, toughest groups, based on adding up the teams' rankings:
E (Italy, Ghana) & H (Spain, Ukraine) - 64 ranking points
A (Germany, Ecuador) & C (Argentina, Netherlands) - 65 points
B (England, Sweden), D (Portugal, Mexico) & G (Switzerland, France) - 67 points
F (Brazil, Australia) - 69 points
Based on this, Italy, Spain, Germany, and Argentina did better than expected in the rankings based on the difficulty of their groups, and the other group winners did worse, with Brazil having the worst relative performance of all.
Brazil are overrated and are not going to win this tournament, IMHO :) . Look out for Germany!
My predictions are: Germany v England Italy and Italy England v Brazil in the semis, with Germany and Italy England (thanks, Migeru!) moving onto the final, and Germany to win their fourth World Cup.