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But what is 'collapse'?

by technopolitical Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 02:19:29 AM EST

Comments often take for granted that "collapse" would be a natural consequence of severe climate change. But does this mean --

  1. "Economic collapse" comparable to the Great Depression?
  2. Collapse of civilisation to a pre-industrial level?
  3. Collapse of terrestrial ecosystems?
  4. Extinction of the human race?


These are radically different propositions, yet I've seen discussion flit from one to the other as if they were conceptual neighbours. Type 1 collapse is a familiar historical event, and hence inherently plausible. Whether one wants to say that humankind experienced a "collapse" in the early 20th century is, however, questionable. "Collapse" typically means "a sudden, complete failure or breakdown". Using this term to describe a 30% drop in GDP that lasts for less than a decade seems hyperbolic.

I have several times asked that someone offer an argument that a  Type 2 collapse (or worse) could plausibly result from climate change that isn't far beyond the worst-case IPCC scenarios. Pointing to past civilisational collapses has been the best argument to date. But what were those collapses?

A recent book review in Science discusses the history of collapse and what has been said about it:

It is perhaps not too surprising that in a time of widespread anxiety about global environmental change, the collapse of civilizations is a topic of intense interest. For example, building on scholarly work in archaeology from the last 20 years, Jared Diamond's recent bestseller, Collapse (1), merged an apocalyptic vision of environmental degradation with an upbeat lesson from the self-help literature, suggesting that societies have chosen to succeed or fail. Spectacular failures, real or imagined, certainly have broad popular appeal: Regional abandonments of settlements in the U.S. Southwest are typically represented as "mysterious disappearances" even though such shifts represented common and effective strategies for managing ecological challenges--and, of course, even though Pueblo peoples are still very much present in the region today.

I've seen this example offered here, and also the next:

Similarly, the Maya are famous primarily for having a complex political and social order involving monumental architecture, an order that failed spectacularly in the Terminal Classic period. Although the Classic Maya collapse involved both political change and large-scale depopulation, even there life went on: as Diane Chase and Arlen Chase describe in their contribution to After Collapse, Post-classic Mayan society restored Classic-period institutions of symbolic egalitarianism and shared rule while rejecting Terminal Classic strategies that more clearly marked personal inequalities. Neither Mayan civilization nor Mayan peoples disappeared, a long-term record of continuity that seems to be the norm rather than the exception, as the articles in this volume make clear.

What is meant by "collapse" in the study of civilisations?

Here it is worth clarifying what contributors to this volume mean by collapse. As Schwartz enumerates, collapse "entails some or all of the following: the fragmentation of states into smaller political entities; the partial abandonment or complete desertion of urban centers, along with the loss or depletion of their centralizing functions; the breakdown of regional economic systems; and the failure of civilizational ideologies." Note that this definition refers only to the collapse of complex political structures and that death and destruction are conspicuously absent. Although the focus of After Collapse is decidedly on continuity and renewal, archaeological studies of collapse itself have always recognized that civilizational traditions and peoples rarely disappear.

Collapse in this sense would be a disaster of historic proportions, but far short of the apocalyptic visions that the word often conjures up.

If I were to continue from here, I'd point out the ways in which modern civilisation is made more adaptable by its technologies, less dependent on local resources by its transportation networks, and less culturally fragile by its distribution across multiple continents and societies. I have great difficulty imagining a climate-change scenario in which disruption reaches the level of Type 2 collapse. Disruption of ecosystems, resource flows, and so on, could be enormous, disastrous, and deadly, yet fall far short of driving every society on the planet into a pre-industrial state.

Global civilisation contains tough and resourceful people, diverse cultures, and loosely coupled systems. Would spill-over from local societal collapses bring down the rest? I think that the weakness of the victims and the potential brutality of the rest gives a strong indication of the answer.

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By the way, there are certainly ways for the human race to exterminate itself, but they don't have much to do with climate change. I think it's important not to dilute the impact of the greater threats by confusing them with lesser threats, even when the latter are enormous.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 02:24:35 AM EST
There is a very simple link between climate change and offing ourselves through our own means - desertification of farmlands and other resource strains can easily lead to war of the last-man-standing sort.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 04:35:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think techno was taking a more isolated approach... if humans would only face global warming with nothing more then we wuld survive... the real danger is what we do to ech other.

My point is that the same mind set that creates global warming can make global warming the starting point of serious wars... not that I think that it is very highly probable to fight until extinction.. but it is nevertheless a possibility as you say.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 05:17:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Add to that, the "30% drop in GDP" played a large part in the war that followed it. It's clearly not the only factor, but it was an important one.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 07:37:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no objection to warning that climate change could increase international tensions and increase the risk of major wars.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 02:47:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As kcurie says, my intention is to focus on destructive processes in which climate change is the main cause, in a relatively direct sense. As you say, though, it would encourage war-driven destruction processes; these could include the familiar scenario of escalation all-out nuclear war between major powers. There is no sharp line between these two classes of scenario, but they are quite different in important ways -- what is forced on us, vs. what we do to ourselves.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 02:45:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As people say, humans are part of the nature. For this time being, it is the most volatile and problematic part of the nature, one might say. But who knows, some process of geological era change might overhelm us soon.

I am not sure that climate change has to encourage war-driven destruction processes. Most likely, war is not the way to overcome a climate or geological change. It is commonly assumed that wars are waged for resources. But excuse me, were the World War I or the Vietnam War, or even the World War II or the current Iraq War, fought for resources?! I have a difficulty to find examples of wars genuinely and actually fought for resources. Is there a point to wage a war for resources that costs the same ammount of resources? Wars might be a luxury of the past, not a necessity of the future.

The main "technology" of overcoming a tough climate change could be ethical after all. Of course, this does not mean that people would not do stupid things. We might indeed talk ourselves into the acceptance of wars as the most normal solution to survival problems. But that would be very immature of us. On a cosmic scale, the civilisations that go beyond their birth planets are probably those without the "natural" assumption that when two civilisations meet, something must turn to dust and stone. There is enough dust and stone across the universe, isn't it?

by das monde on Wed Jan 17th, 2007 at 12:22:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In addition, if the polar ice caps completely melt, I believe over 50% of humanity has to go live somewhere else.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 04:38:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This would be a huge but gradual (century-scale) problem. I don't know how it would compare to previous drivers of human migration. I'd expect that most of the movement would be inland, to new urban areas on higher ground.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 02:51:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I personally like this classification...

although a change in paradigm is also a great possibility, meaning that the units we use to measure success and developed change ... even the meaning of success changes. In that case you would have a collapse in structure too, cultural change and maybe the disappearanc eof most of the concepts that entail  case 1.

So while 2, 3 and 4 are quite clear to measure and quite independent from any cultural notion (just count how many people, or how many animal for 3 and 44 and jjsut record the  life style for 2).. I am not sure 1 is the only possibility which excludes 2,3 and 4.

Good diary.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 03:53:34 AM EST
In our culturally diverse and competitive world, I'd expect that cultural changes will result in a still-diverse and competitive world. The economic changes that define Type 1 may indeed be valued very differently in some future cultures, but (in a competitive world) they have a Darwinian dimension that is independent of that cultural valuation. Economic-industrial-technological strength is a necessary foundation of military power, and is the basis of some of the softer dimensions of power, too. One important meaning of "success" would consider subjugation of the world by a murderous dictatorial state as a success -- for that state. This kind of success has relatively objective and culture-independent metrics.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 03:02:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A gift economy can indeed be competitive but with ac ompletely different point of view... an status economy where agriculture and mining is not int he hands of humans could also have very different frameworks...and not necessarily competitive in the sense we understand it now.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 03:09:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With a stable rule-of-law framework for human action (leaving little payoff for coercion), and with valuable products becoming more like software, a gift economy could flourish to an unprecedented extent. I hope to see it.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.
by technopolitical on Tue Jan 16th, 2007 at 02:43:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agree... so the 1st item encompasses a lot of possible options... who knows...

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Tue Jan 16th, 2007 at 07:00:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
it's already here and exponentially growing...2 things that will help it explode: english as global Universal) language and bridging the digital divide...

once people star having more fun with computers, they settle down need less other toys!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Jan 16th, 2007 at 02:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Capitalism will destroy planet Earth if left unchecked...

"Imagine all the people/ Sharing all the world" -- John Lennon
by Cassiodorus on Mon Jan 15th, 2007 at 08:40:06 AM EST
It must be a common story of the evolution of life on Earth: from time to time a species appears so successful that is able to exploit diverse resourses and expand to diverse environments. It "discovers" vast benefits of unrestricted greed, and it grows and grows... until the environment is not able to sustain it. Sadly, we cannot have much empirical clue how this typically happens and what follows. But we may guess, any of possible scenarios could have played out in various measures, scales and frequences:

Scenario I: The greedy species eat out a critical resource for themselves, the individuals not able to replace it, and must die out. A poll of other species make a feast of the remains.

Scenario II: A critical resource is gone, but a small portion of the greedy species in some locations adopts and survives. They are among the feasters, but their aggregate impact is now modest.

Scenario III: The greedy species start to cannibilize or competatively kill each other, just before critical resources are gone, so that a small portion of them survives without much change in "the way of life" (except that they become increasingly aggressive towards each other).

Scenario IV: For some reason, the greedy habits or genes are supressed by some cooperative mechanisms, at least for a considerably long time. But then a "libertarian political economy" takes over anyway, the species rapidly expand and "prosper" for a few generations, and then they found themselves in one of the above scenarios.

Scenario V: The greedy habits or genes are supressed by some cooperative mechanisms, but when the "culture of greed" makes a progress, cooperation and other restricting mechanisms evolve as well. This scenario might get good traction after a number of "boom and bust" cycles has happened to the same species.

Scenario VI: The greedy species does not have restrictive mechanisms in the genes or in the social structure, but the environment has the functionality of detecting its own stress, and is able (for example) to provoke a sharp "boom and bust" cycle on the greedy species, forcing them either to diminish their impact, or join the controlling environmental system. On the global scale, this is called Gaia.

It is an interesting exercise to ponder relative actuality of these scenarios ;-]

by das monde on Wed Jan 17th, 2007 at 01:20:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And work together to over-come the adverse effects of climate change, then the better survival scenerios become likely.  

In which case the isolation of issues you are performing is reasonable.  

But this is precisely NOT what humans are doing.  

While we GUESS that climate change may produce cascade failures in the biosphere, we don't have to guess that humans will do the wrong thing:  They are already doing it.  Cascade failure is the expectation.  

If you are serious about saving technological civilization largely intact, you need to:  

  1.  Find ways to support the desired technology using radically less energy per capita.  (at least one order of magnitude.)  

  2.  Find ways for the civilization to function without growth in use of material resources.  

  3.  Find ways for the civilization to become stable in a no-growth paradigm.  

  4.  Eliminate energy intensive ways of life that are unnecessary to maintaining tecnological society, and replace them with energy efficient ways that work.  

  5.  Persuade governments, businesses, and advertisers to promote these things and implement them.  

Now 1 through 4 are seriously hard, but--if we allow some flexibility about what technologies can be saved--we can imagine doing them.  They are not a priori ruled out.  

Number 5 is the sugar in the gas tank.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Tue Jan 16th, 2007 at 05:01:22 PM EST


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