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by Colman Mon Jan 22nd, 2007 at 07:25:55 AM EST
I've looked around in the hope of putting together a story talking about the current weird weather in Europe and its causes but I can't find anything coherent.
Do any of our many resident experts have suggestions?
Second Answer: Models of cliamte cna not udnerstand particuar variations. We have a chaotic system in our hands.
Third Answer: If you want to save the face and pretend that we know everything, youc an laways say that is el NIño or whatever....
Fourth Answer: No fricking clue
Fifth Answer: When change the metabolism of a cell it can do unexpected things... it could happen the smae with CO2... and again... it is chaotic so..
A pleasure I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude
Jeff Masters: Storms and heat in Europe (January 19, 2007)
Europe's strange winter weather continues to generate headlines, as a powerful low pressure system brought hurricane-force wind gusts to England, Germany, the Czech Republic, and many other European countries on Thursday. The powerful extratropical cyclone, now centered over western Russia, has a central pressure of 960 mb--the kind of pressures commonly seen in Category 1 and 2 hurricanes! At least 41 people have been killed in the storm, mostly motorists in England and Germany. The storm shut down the German train system for the first time in history. The last winter storm with comparable winds in Europe occurred in January 1990. The latest computer forecast models point to the first significant snows and cold for Europe next week, when a major low pressure system is expected to finally tap into some cold Artic air and pull it southwards over much of Europe.
In reality, the individual roles of deterministic factors such as El Nino, anthropogenic climate change, and of purely random factors (i.e. "weather") in the pattern observed thusfar this winter cannot even in principle be ascertained. What we do know, however, is that both anthropogenic climate change and El Nino favor, in a statistical sense, warmer winters over large parts of the U.S. When these factors act constructively, as is the case this winter, warmer temperatures are certainly more likely. Both factors also favor warmer global mean surface temperatures (the warming is one or two tenths of a degree C for a moderate to strong El Nino). It is precisely for this reason that some scientists are already concluding, with some justification, that 2007 stands a good chance of being the warmest year on record for the globe.(Real Climate)
And useful comments ...
The reality, as we've often remarked here before, is that absolute statements of neither sort are scientifically defensible. Meteorological anomalies cannot be purely attributed to deterministic factors, let alone any one specific such factor (e.g. either global warming or a hypothetical long-term climate oscillation).
Also, there's a story today about the Greenland ice sheet melting 3 times faster than expected. Metro: Arctic melt 'could sink our cities' (January 22, 2007)
... A melt of 80km3 was predicted for 2006 but the latest figures show 287km3 has disappeared - almost three-and-a-half times more than expected. ... Martin Truffer, a glaciologist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, said: 'The general thinking until very recently was that ice sheets don't react very quickly to climate. 'But that thinking is changing right now, because we're seeing things that people have thought are impossible.' But Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University, insisted there was no need to panic. 'There is no consensus on how much Greenland's ice will melt and no computer model that can accurately predict the future of the ice sheet,' he said.
A melt of 80km3 was predicted for 2006 but the latest figures show 287km3 has disappeared - almost three-and-a-half times more than expected.
...
Martin Truffer, a glaciologist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, said: 'The general thinking until very recently was that ice sheets don't react very quickly to climate.
'But that thinking is changing right now, because we're seeing things that people have thought are impossible.'
But Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University, insisted there was no need to panic.
'There is no consensus on how much Greenland's ice will melt and no computer model that can accurately predict the future of the ice sheet,' he said.
And the fact that there is no consensus and no correct models should be no cause for comfort. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
It passes my understanding why disciplines who know damn well their object of study is a Chaotic System routinely ignore that fact when creating their Models. Further, various subsidary parts of these Models are incorporated incorrectly as well, Migeru's example of glaciers being essentially viscous fluids is a case in point.
I'm sure it's all great fun to spend one's time creating bogus Models, crank the math around, and then publish papers and reports saying how wonderful the modelers are. However, when the object of study is a dire problem - such as Global Climate Change - I submit this silliness is completely irresponsible. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
Which part of "there is no need to panic" didn't you understand? No wonder he's the Penn State professor, and not us. "It's the statue, man, The Statue."
Perhaps my bad attitude is why I never get invited to the best parties? She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
The last winter storm with comparable winds in Europe occurred in January 1990.
Comparable in what? In wind speeds, there was one winter storm every year or two at comparable or higher level. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
This conceptual change has occured in the mainstream during the last year or so, but it has finally occured. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Within that discuorse a cold winter will naturally raise the question of if it is uncommonly cold. Could the Gulf Stream be slowing down already? Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
... next year, when we get a really cold winter, people will start saying "what global warming".
That is why I prefer to use the term 'Global Climate Change.' People get fixated on the gerund - "warming" - and forget the adjective - global. "Global warming" as a Chaotic system means any particular geographical location could end-up being colder or warmer or the same. The local affect is unknowable although it can be stated, with a high degree of confidence, climate is moving towards higher temperatures overall. She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
people are complaining when it's hot, and complaining when it's warm
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