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Long Bets

by DeAnander Mon Mar 5th, 2007 at 07:18:37 PM EST

I would like to introduce the ETites to the Long Bets Web site. (Current list of bets on the table here) The point of the web site is to formalise and make accountable various futurological predictions, in some cases betting actual money on the outcome.

It might be an interesting model for playing with predictive assertions from within the ET thinktank;  Jerome's "$100/barrel oil" series is a form of ongoing Long Bet, as are many other opinions and assertions underlying our various political and programmatic positions.

So... what are you betting on?

Most of my "long bets" are fear-based...and I won't bet on them because I'm afraid of what will happen if I lose! (Like, for example, Iran...)

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Tue Mar 6th, 2007 at 06:35:31 AM EST
My mom told me never to make bets...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Tue Mar 6th, 2007 at 08:17:04 AM EST
I think this is a great idea.  It's one way of keeping a little more attention on forecasts that are just not well thought out, or are not based on a real world view.  kind of a "put your money where your mouth is".
by wchurchill on Tue Mar 6th, 2007 at 11:57:27 AM EST
More practical perhaps, but still indicative of longer term prediction ability, are the electronic trade markets Intrade.com. You can bet on many things: future presidential elections, changes in financial indices, war affairs, legal outcomes, sport events, etc.

Here are how things stand at this moment:

Will Dow Jones IA close this year at 12500 or higher?  44% chance

Will US or Israel strike Iran this year? 22%

Wil dick Cheney announce his resignation this year? 24%

Will a Democrat win the US 2008 Presidential election? 56%

2008 Democratic Nomination:
Clinton: 44%
Obama: 30%
Gore: 12%

Will Bush pardon Libby (on at least one count)?
This year: 20%
By the end of his term: 62%

by das monde on Thu Mar 8th, 2007 at 11:31:14 PM EST

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