Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

French election special

by Laurent GUERBY Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:25:59 AM EST

At 12h00, participation of 31.21% against 21.40% in 2002, best since 1981 (France Info, métropole).
At 17h00, participation of 73.87% against 58.5% in 2002 at that time, and 71.60% final number).
Final participation number: 83.78% (still moving a bit source)

promoted to the FP by tsp... check out the comments for lots more...


French election coverage:

In english:

Update [2007-4-22 11:32:6 by Jerome a Paris]: Here's map of who was leading around the country in the 2002 vote:

Blue (most of the West) is Chirac
Brown (most of the East) is Le Pen
Pink (SouthWest) is Jospin
Orange (on the North coast) is the CNPT (hunters)

Display:
I hope this will at least be bad for le Pen. What about the others?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 06:38:16 AM EST
Might be good news for Royal, as a poll suggests she leads among recently registered voters.

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 07:00:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All the commentators are comparing the noon participation with the first round in 2002, but I wonder about the second round in 2002, which had an actually high participation...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 07:13:32 AM EST
According to:

http://francepolitique.free.fr/PR0.htm


ABSTENTIONS/VOTES BLANCS ET NULS

premiers tours
                        1965    1969    1974    1981    1988    1995    2002
Abstentions             15,25   22,41   15,77   18,91   18,65   21,62   28,40
Blancs et Nuls          00,86   01,00   00,77   01,31   01,63   02,21   02,42
Suffrages exprimés      83,89   75,59   83,45   79,78   79,72   76,17   69,18

seconds tours
                        1965    1969    1974    1981    1988    1995    2002
Abstentions             15,68   31,15   12,67   14,15   15,94   20,34   20,29
Blancs et Nuls          02,31   04,42   01,17   02,47   03,04   04,76   04,28
Suffrages exprimés      82,01   64,43   86,17   83,38   81,02   74,90   75,42

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 07:45:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was looking for the noon figures for comparison purposes. But didn't find them. Journalists have access to these figures, but it seems they don't think of that...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 07:50:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.lefigaro.fr/election-presidentielle-2007/20070422.WWW000000054__de_participation.html


 A 12 heures, le taux de participation au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle était supérieur de 10 points à celui de 2002.

Le taux de participation au premier tour de l'élection présidentielle s'établissait à 31,21% à 12 heures, soit le chiffre le plus important depuis l'élection présidentielle de 1981 et dix points de plus qu'en 2002, rapporte le ministère de l'Intérieur.

Ce chiffre de participation à la mi-journée au premier tour de la présidentielle avait baissé depuis 26 ans, passant de 25,9% (1981) à 27,1% (1988) puis 23% (1995) et 21,4% en 2002.

Un nombre record de 44,5 millions d'électeurs est appelé aux urnes, dont 3,3 millions d'inscrits supplémentaires par rapport à 2002.

And it's higher participation today with more voters on the lists (and end of school holidays today).

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 07:55:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just heard that 1965 / 1969 / 1974 elections didn't have mid-day statistics, they started in 1981.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:22:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems the websites of the Francophone Belgian and Swiss dailies are very slow... I wonder why :)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 07:23:05 AM EST
+21 points and +10 points.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-899817,0.html


A midi, le taux de participation au premier tour s'établit à 31,21%, selon le ministère de l'intérieur, soit au niveau le plus élevé depuis l'élection présidentielle de 1981 (25,9%). Depuis ce scrutin de 1981, la courbe du taux de participation à la mi-journée au premier tour n'a pas cessé de décliner : 27,1% en 1988, 23% en 1995, et enfin 21,4 % en 2002. Le scrutin du 21 avril 2002 s'était d'ailleurs soldé par un très fort taux d'abstention de 28,4%, le record pour un premier tour.

Dans les départements ou collectivités d'outre-mer, où le scrutin est en passe d'être terminé, la participation enregistrée est également en forte hausse : à Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, la plus petite des collectivités d'outre-mer françaises, 63,11% des inscrits s'étaient déplacés samedi, contre seulement 41,97% au premier tour en 2002. En Nouvelle-Calédonie, à deux heures de la fermeture des bureaux de vote, la participation était déjà de 57,44%, supérieure de près de dix points à celle d'il y a cinq ans. Même mobilisation en Guyane, en Polynésie française ou en Guadeloupe où le taux final de 2002 était déjà dépassé avant même la fin du scrutin.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 07:58:06 AM EST
More

http://www.lejdd.fr/cmc/presidentielle/200716/les-francais-repondent-a-l-appel_12516.html


Si les plus taquins diront que les Français ont préféré garder leur après-midi pour profiter du beau temps, la tendance, qui pourrait se confirmer dans la journée, avait été dessinée par les chiffres de l'Outre-Mer. A 16h00, soit deux heures et demie avant la fermeture des bureaux de vote, la participation moyenne était en hausse de dix points environ dans les départements d'Outre-Mer. En Guadeloupe, 41,5% des électeurs s'étaient exprimés contre 32% il y a cinq ans, alors que 38% des Martiniquais s'étaient rendus aux urnes contre 27,7%. En Guyane, ils étaient même 53,3% à deux heures de la fermeture, contre 46,76% à l'issue du scrutin en 2002. Ailleurs dans le monde, de longues files d'attente se formaient devant les consulats, comme en Australie ou au Liban.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:03:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This has changed: in 2002, the vote was held on Sunday in the overseas territories in the Western hemisphere like Guyana, Guadeloupe, Martinique or French Polynesia, as well as in the consulates in North & South America.

I remember having voted on Sunday afternoon at the French consulate in San Francisco (located on Bush St. ironically enough) even though the estimates from France were known since 11 am Pacific (8 pm in France).

In 2007, for the first time, the polls in all these places have been moved to Saturday: another side effect of the globalization? the Internet? satellite TV? All of the above?

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:16:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does anyone have some links to up-to-date election coverage and results/projections in English? - My French is just too poor..
by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:00:21 AM EST
On France Info they announced that CNN international does a French election special.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:01:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
unfortunately...


Sarkozy, blunt, reformist and pro-American, was frightening to many French. Royal presented a smiling, feminist mother-figure. Scholarly farmer's son Francois Bayrou could pull off a surprise win, and the anti-immigrant nationalist Jean-Marie Le Pen was still counting on big support.

Turnout was likely to be high, with voter registration numbers up nationwide -- especially in rundown immigrant neighborhoods wracked by rioting in 2005.

The successor to Chirac must steer a nuclear power in an insecure world, revive a large and listless economy, invigorate a downbeat work force, incorporate alienated young Muslims.

Sarkozy is ready to build a new pro-American French foreign policy and proudly shook U.S. President George W. Bush's hand last year. Royal said she would never shake Bush's hand without letting him know what she thought of his policies first.

Sarkozy talks of a "rupture" with the past, including painful reforms of worker-friendly labor laws to make France more competitive. He has toned down his rhetoric in the campaign, but many predict he will revive it if elected.

Royal says her France would be different because she would be its first woman president. She has tilted away from some of her party's policies, but her economic plan would lean left and reverse some reforms of the Chirac era.

Reform and left wing are so obviously uncompatible...


The French are worried about losing jobs to China, India and Brazil -- and losing their influence on the world stage. French entreaties against the Iraq war, while celebrated by many, ultimately went ignored.

And that's a sign of France's decline rather than of Bush's pigheadedness, of course.


The health of the euro depends in part on whether the next French president can stimulate growth.

Sarkozy offers the bolder plan, by getting the French to work more and cutting taxes. Royal would raise the minimum wage and subsidize youth jobs.

New jobs are the only solution for the rundown housing projects plagued by discrimination, poverty, illiteracy and dependence on state handouts. The landscape remains little changed since the 2005 riots forced France and its leaders to acknowledge their problems.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:30:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The health of the euro depends in part on whether the next French president can stimulate growth.

Things could be worse. It could be tied to the dollar.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 09:55:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Youn find positive waves in surprising places :)
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 09:59:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
if i could only rate this post a "4" ten times.  talk about absurd!
by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:48:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thir current poll question:


Do you think Sunday's French presidential election will bring greater harmony to the country?

!!!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:05:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which country?
by paving on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:48:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To watch CNN (and 1000+ more channels) for free, go to www.channelchooser.com

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:43:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We will try to translate whatever matters here.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:11:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is the server still in Legally and physically in America ? (so our non-French posters can give us the pre-20 o-clock results)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:14:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Still in America.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:16:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
thanks DoDo! I'll stick around and watch.
by Saturday (geckes(at)gmx.net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:35:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you´re still in Germany....
TV channel "Phoenix" will report about the French election from 6 to 10 this evening.
And the German-French channel "Arte" will have two reports this evening. The first one at 7.45 (50 minutes) and the second one later at 10.45 (30 minutes).
by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:25:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
On France Info at Reims, some had to wait more than 45 minutes to vote in front of machines (electricity problem to power them up...).

I wrote about cost on my blog:

http://guerby.org/blog/index.php/2007/04/22/157-elections-et-comptabilite

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:05:53 AM EST
So there are electronic voting machines in some areas? How widespread is that and is the software free?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:03:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
1.5M voters (in 80 or so cities/towns) out of 44M will use electronic machines.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:14:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Free software is not the issue, the machine used have no traceability at all, full black box.

Only paper trail makes voting machine acceptable.

Example of correct use Venezuela where the machines are here for just after close result but voters put the printed bulletin in the ballot box and a random half of the box are recounted manually.

http://www.ordinateurs-de-vote.org/

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:20:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the software is fully known it is a bit better then proprietary and secret software, because the latter allows for easier insertion of vote rigging programs. But I agree that only paper trail makes it acceptable anyway (just assumed there would not be any).

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:40:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There was a big line to vote (but it may have been the time of the day - 12:30, just before lunch).

Anectodally, the two piles (out of the 12) of paper bulletins for the candidates which had the most bulletins taken from them were very clearly Sarkozy AND Royal. I went to another polling area with my neighbor, there it was Sarkozy ahead, with de Villiers and Royal follwing further behind.

That's only the bulletins that people take before actually choosing - and note of course that this is the 16th arrondissement, i.e. posh and conservative (for the most part).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:14:08 AM EST
For the most part ? If Segolène polls at more than 20 % in the 16th, Sarkozy has lost the election ! (although I don't know wether you are in the really posh parts of the 16th)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:16:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not in the really posh parts... Jospin was fourth or fifth in 2002 in the 16th (after Chirac, Le Pen, Bayrou and maybe de Villiers) IIRC, but "only" third in our voting bureau.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:33:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And I always take the bulletin I received in mail :).
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:19:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France Info: Hérault (Montpellier) participation rate 33% vs 21%, +12%. Higher in rural areas than in cities. +70k voters on the lists (+17k just in Montpellier).

Palavas: voting machines, 45 minutes wait line.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 08:22:10 AM EST
Ha! A hard job, trying to find the appropriate interview victims in the French banlieues. Word of advise, perhaps. Never try to impress the youth with your 'knowledge of their culture'.

Rap och revoltRap and revolt
La Forestière, ett sjabbigt höghusområde, ligger ett par hundra meter från skolan i Clichy-sous-Bois. Vi passerar ett franskt tv-team som också verkar ha problem med att hitta intervjupersoner. På ett stålstaket sitter en spinkig kille med guldkedja, solglasögon och vita träningsbyxor. Hiphopbeats tickar i hans mp3-lurar när han tar av dem för att hälsa. Jag inleder en konversation om graffiti och tänker att han kanske ställer upp på bild om han märker att jag har koll på hans kultur. Killen pekar ut en målning han gjort på en närbelägen husvägg: "NIQUE LA POLICE" (= knulla polisen). När jag nämner att vi träffat Soprano blir han imponerad. La Forestière, a shabby area of high-rise buildings, is a couple of hundred meters from the school in Clinchy-sous-Bois. We pass a French TV team who also seems to have a problem finding someone to interview. On a steel fence sits a thin guy with a goldchain, sun glasses and white jogging pants. Hiphop beats are heard from hid mp3 headphones when he takes them of to great us. I start a conversation about graffiti, hoping that he will agree to be in a picture if he thinks I can dig his culture. He points to a painting he has made on a nearby wall. "NIQUE LA POLICE" (= fuck the police). When I mention that we have met Soprano [French rapper] he is impressed.
- Är det sant? Soprano är asgrym! Tog ni bilder av honom också? Får jag se? "Is that true? Soprano is awsome! Did you take pictures of him too? Can I see?"
Fotografen Paul Hansen klickar fram Marseillerapparen på sin display och håller upp den framför graffitimålaren - som rycker åt sig kameran och rusar i väg. Vi avlägsnar oss från La Forestière för att inte bli rånade på den andra kameran också. Runt knuten stöter vi på en polispiket. The photographer, Paul Hansen, pulls up the rapper from Marseille on his display and holds it up for the graffiti painter - who grabs the camera and runs off. We leave La Forestière to not be robbed of the other camera as well. Around the corner we run into a police patrol.
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 09:12:51 AM EST
Ha!

Naive Swedish journalists getting what they deserve. :)

Though Paul Hansen is a great photgrapher.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:46:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 09:16:56 AM EST
Against voting machines

http://www.lefigaro.fr/fil-info/20070422.WWW000000071_recours_contre_le_vote_electronique.html


Daniel Guérin, conseiller régional MRC d'Ile-de-France a annoncé aujourd'hui avoir saisi le Conseil constitutionnel sur des "dysfonctionnements" du scrutin présidentiel "liés à l'implantation de machines à voter" à Villeneuve-le-Roi (Val-de-Marne). Ancien maire adjoint de cette ville, Daniel Guérin affirme dans un communiqué qu'en milieu de matinée, il fallait y attendre "de 45 minutes à plus d'une heure et demie" pour pouvoir voter et que "de nombreux électeurs ont fait demi tour et renoncé à voter".


by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 09:50:46 AM EST
Now I remember what I don't listen to radio or TV: those repetitive commercial ads are unbearable...
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:04:11 AM EST
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:12:27 AM EST
http://www.ouest-france.fr/dossiers/presidentielle2007_filinfo.asp?prov=BKN&idDOC=397649


 Un coup de lingette citronnée et la machine à voter repart!
A Brest, le scrutin a dû être interrompu pendant une vingtaine de minutes dans un bureau de vote dimanche vers 15 h 30. La machine à voter n'enregistrait plus les votes. Un jeune électeur féru d'électronique a suggéré à la présidente du bureau de passer une lingette citronnée sur les touches. Ce qui a permis à la machine de fonctionner à nouveau. Apparemment, les touches s'étaient encrassées au fur et à mesure du passage des électeurs.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:13:51 AM EST
...and I say this as a person with a degree in computer science, but what's wrong with pen and paper?

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:17:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing :)

I'm strongly against voting machines with paper trail.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:20:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
with => without paper trail

Eh :)

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:37:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"what's wrong with Le Pen?"

Thinly disguised trolling?

</le snark>

by timelagged on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:24:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Welcome to European Tribune! You are the happy owner of User's number 2001!

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:02:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh I am, how interesting. Hadn't noticed.

Can I have "Alzo Sprach Zarathustra" as my theme music, to play me on whenever I appear?

by timelagged on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:25:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh snap, I'm busted!

Bienvenue à EuroTrib !

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde

by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:15:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Merci :)
by timelagged on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:22:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just heard on France info 15000 procuration votes vs 6500 in 2002.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:16:09 AM EST
What's a procuration vote?

Does that just mean that more than twice as many people voted?

It occurs to me that the Sarkozy hype machine may have been counterproductive. I'm wondering if Royal supporters followed the (alleged) pro-Sarkozy trends and decided to vote on an 'Oh Christ - anyone but him' basis.

We'll see...

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:25:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See below. What's the english term for that?
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:31:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just curious.
by Matt in NYC on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:26:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can vote for one (and not more) other person if the other person did the right paperwork, it's called a "procuration". Paperwork was recently simplified for voting "procurations".

The term is also used for legal stuff, you authorize someone else to sign official document in your place.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:28:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Proxy.

Would be a good translation, I think.

Good example of a faux ami, that one. "Procuration vote" would tend to imply something entirely different in Anglais.

by timelagged on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:31:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep. Proxy is what we use here.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:38:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
15% at 12h00 (52 000 on the lists). Total participation in 2002 was 30%.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:26:26 AM EST
http://www.cherbourg.maville.com/actu/actudet.php?prov=BKN&idDoc=397665


Trois quarts des incrits ont déjà voté à Cherbourg
A 16 h , le taux de participation pour les 26 bureaux de vote de Cherbourg était de 72, 62 % . 17 433 électeurs avaient voté sur un total de 24 005 inscrits. En pourcentage, l'écart par rapport à  2002 est de 15, 84 % .

Some city are now above total participation of 2002.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:40:46 AM EST
N.Y. Times op-ed today. This guy is sorry to see Chiraq go and feels no one running is up for the job.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/22/opinion/22judt.html?n=Top%2fOpinion%2fEditorials%20and%20Op%2dEd%2 fOp%2dEd%2fContributors

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:43:03 AM EST
http://www.ouest-france.fr/dossiers/presidentielle2007_filinfo.asp?prov=BKN&idDOC=397667


 A 16 h, Nantes a atteint 67% de votants
Le beau temps ne freine pas la progression des chiffres : à 16 h, Nantes a atteint 67 % de participation ; le taux de 2002 était de 52 %  à la même heure.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:43:41 AM EST
Toulouse +39k voters on the list.

+15% participation in Toulouse, +10% around Toulouse.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:45:20 AM EST
That's a hell of a lot more people voting than could be expected - and a lot more than was captured in the polls. We could definitely have some big surprises there.

But it's hard to know which ones!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:52:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the swiss dailies websites are ^$£¨µ%£"'(£µ%$ unreachable !

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:55:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. Everyone, please refrain from feeling optimistic! Don't tempt fate!
by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 10:56:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What? Fine, I'll put the Jose Bové victory party on hold until later...

"The basis of optimism is sheer terror" - Oscar Wilde
by NordicStorm (m<-at->sturmbaum.net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:04:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The combination of a very high rate of poll respondents indicating indecision even immediately before the elections and a very high rate of participation on election day is reminiscent of the last federal elections in Germany. The result there was indeed a bit of an upset - Merkel's conservatives performed far worse and Schroeders social-democrats far better than the opinion polls had suggested. May it be an omen!

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:24:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
73.87 at 1700 france metropolitaine
15 more point 2002
8 points 1981
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:11:30 AM EST
74.23 dans le rhone a 17h00
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:19:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
74.98 ille et vilaine
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:23:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've updated the top level post. Don't hesitate to do the same when you have relevant national news.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:39:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
42% participation in 2002 in germany
long lines today in Berlin, no official numbers yet
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:29:35 AM EST
That would be french living in Germany?

(As my first thought was "hey is there an election in Germany too?")

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:32:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When do the polls close in France? And when will we start hearing returns?

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:30:00 AM EST
close at 18h in most areas, except for Paris and a few major cities where it goes until 20h (and a few places at 19h).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:34:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
from linca (upthread):
Is the server still in Legally and physically in America ? (so our non-French posters can give us the pre-20 o-clock results)

When do the polls close in France?

I guess at 20:00.

And when will we start hearing returns?

I guess we can hear about the exit polls from belgian and swiss sources a bit before 20:00, as they appear illegal in France until polls are closed.

But hey, I am just guessing.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:37:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the big cities, polls close at 20.00. You will have the first estimtations at 20.O1, unless you go have a look at our Belgian (Le Soir) or Swiss (La Tribune de Genève) friends at 18.00...

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:38:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
80% in finistere at 17h00
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:31:13 AM EST
dublin 4x the number of procuration
never seen so many people
4500 on the list
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:33:56 AM EST
Just back from the polling station, very busy, even in the middle of the afternoon. At 17.00, participation was over 73%, much higher than in 2002, and the station closes at 20.00! I think participation will be well above 80%. Democracy works!

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:41:40 AM EST
pollsters say final participation will be 87%
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:45:54 AM EST
That would put it higher than 1965! Huge!

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:54:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
this kind of figure is really fantastic, congratulation Frenchies, that will give a strong legitimacy to the winner.

perhaps we will see Lepen under 10%.

quite a buch of changes in the french political life today.

by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:19:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
washingtown
lots of vote yesterday, up to 1h30 queues
new poll station
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 11:56:06 AM EST
In der Pariser Vorstadt Clichy-sous-Bois strömten die Jungwähler deutlich zahlreicher an die Urnen als vor fünf Jahren.

"Alle Jugendlichen aus den Vorstädten wählen heute, das ist der Wahnsinn", rief eine Gruppe junger Männer aus der 28 000-Einwohner-Stadt, in der im Herbst 2005 die landesweiten Vorstadt-Krawalle begonnen hatten.

Die meisten Jungwähler gaben an, sie hätten die Sozialistin Ségolène Royal gewählt. "Sie will uns eine Chance geben", sagte der 20-jährige Soufien mit Rapper-Mütze.

It says that in the Paris suburbs lots of young people went voting and declared that they voted for Ségolène.

This is from the swiss news agency, though no numbers yet.

by Fran on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:28:44 PM EST
for Sarko to get defeated by precisely those immigrant youths he tried to use as a spring board to power.

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:35:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is a second round mandatory? Or could there be a winner in the first round?
by Fran on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:30:23 PM EST
A winner in the first round needs to get over 50% of the votes.
by dwemer on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:33:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
only if no candidate gets 50% of the votes!

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:35:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
History buffs will note this has never happened since the beginning of the 5th Republic (1958); de Gaulle came close in 1965, but had to go into a runoff 2nd round vs Mitterand and was eventually re-elected.
by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 01:01:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Le Temps
Présidentielle française 2007: Ségolène Royal et Nicolas Sarkozy en tête
Les premières tendances (sondages sorties des urnes)

    Candidats    
Voix (selon LeTemps.ch)
1.
    Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)    
26-30 %
2.
    Ségolène Royal (PS)    
23-27 %
3.
    Français Bayrou (UDF)    
16-20 %
4.
    Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)    
11-14 %

link

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)
by brainwave on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:37:56 PM EST

Le Temps
Présidentielle française 2007: Ségolène Royal et Nicolas Sarkozy en tête
Les premières tendances (18h30 ; sondages sorties des urnes)

    Candidats    
Voix (selon LeTemps.ch)
1.
    Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP)    
26-27,5 %
2.
    Ségolène Royal (PS)    
26%
3.
    Français Bayrou (UDF)    
16 %
4.
    Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN)    
17 %

link

Yessssssssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you can't convince them, confuse them. (Harry S. Truman)

by brainwave on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 12:45:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Am I missing something?

Or are these numbers completely off?

by Bernard Chazelle (Bernard Chazelle) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 03:19:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Better then expected for Royal.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Apr 22nd, 2007 at 04:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey Laurent! Thank you for hosting this election special thread...excellent job...thank you very much!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia
by whataboutbob on Mon Apr 23rd, 2007 at 02:49:51 AM EST


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