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Kuwaiti Dinar

by Ronald Rutherford Mon May 21st, 2007 at 01:24:03 PM EST

This seems to be a tempest in a teapot, but wanted to see what others here think about the situations with the Kuwaiti Dinar and maybe more broadly in the GCC union.
Kuwait abandons US dollar currency peg

Kuwait on Sunday removed its currency peg to the US dollar, throwing plans for a Gulf currency union by 2010 into doubt and raising the prospect that other oil-producing states might abandon long-held dollar pegs.

...


Sheikh Salem Abdelaziz Al Sabah, governor of the Central Bank of Kuwait, told the official Kuwait news agency that the decision had been made owing to the "detrimental effects of the pegging system to the national economy".

Since late last year, Kuwaiti officials have hinted that the country would revert to a basket of currencies to prevent the sliding dollar increasing the cost of imports, which has stoked inflation to more than 4 per cent, double the historic average. This has encouraged speculators to plough billions of dollars into the dinar over the past few months, betting that the central bank would allow the dinar to appreciate.

On Sunday, the dinar traded up 0.4 per cent as the central bank replaced the peg with a basket of undisclosed currencies. The central bank had allowed the currency to vary up to 3.5 per cent from the peg, but the dinar had been at the top end of the approved trading band for a year owing to the continuing weakness of the dollar and the strength of Kuwait's oil-driven economy.

The dollar is expected to make up about 75-80 per cent of the new basket, reducing the third largest Arab oil exporter's exposure to the weakening dollar.

Kuwait dropped its currency basket in 2003, adopting a dollar peg as part of the Gulf Co-operation Council countries' drive to create a unified economic block with a single currency by 2010. But doubts over the ability of the GCC economies to harmonise have arisen, with one member of the six-nation council, Oman, saying it would not meet the convergence criteria.

"There have already been a lot of question marks over currency union taking place; this raises an additional one," said Simon Williams, an economist with HSBC in Dubai.

Kuwait's move may come as a surprise to other GCC states, such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, which have been repeating their commitment to the peg in recent weeks, saying that any revaluation should be agreed collectively by the GCC.

Mr Williams did not believe other GCC states would follow suit on revaluation quickly, as these countries have clung to dollar pegs since the early 1980s.

But other GCC states - Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman - are studying the move as an option to mitigate dollar weakness.


Really nothing of major ground-breaking stuff.
Pegging a nations currency eliminates or so severely restricts monetary policy to make it nearly ineffective, thus exposing the country to the whims of the world wide economic fluctuations-especially with respect to inflation.

So 0.4 percent is really nothing. And even after the basket is changed it will still contain 75-80% US dollars. So a little less trading in dollars to maintain its basket equilibrium.

But a country of Kuwait should not peg its currency unless it is trying to join a monetary union. It might be interesting looking more into the GCC. As I remember a monetary union has a lead country that pegs its currency to another stable currency (US Dollar) or a basket and all others countries peg to that lead country.
Kuwait reviewing exchange rate, dollar peg

BENEFITS OF THE PEG
"Inflation is one of the drivers," Humaidhi said, adding the government expected annualised inflation in 2007 to match the 3.1 per cent recorded last year. "Kuwait moved from a basket (of currencies) to the dollar. We are considering whether this is the right idea and what benefits we are from getting this," he said.

Kuwait switched the dinar's peg from a basket of currencies to the dollar in 2003 to prepare for monetary union with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and three other Gulf oil producers. With the monetary union timetable in doubt after Oman, one of the six, opted last year not to meet the 2010 deadline, speculation has grown that some Gulf states would revalue their currencies. Kuwait was named as the top candidate for a revaluation in a Reuters poll of analysts in March. Standard Chartered's Brice said he expected Kuwait to revalue the dinar by 1 per cent. Deutsche Bank expects the currency to appreciate 3 per cent in six months.

Speculators piled pressure on the dinar in the runup to a Gulf central bankers meeting in April that was expected to hammer out a deal to revive the monetary union plan. The talks ended inconclusively. In March Kuwait's central bank warned speculators against betting on an appreciation of the dinar and followed up by cutting key interest rates to make dinar-denominated assets less attractive.


But the one thing about having a peg or in this case a trading band, speculators such as George Soros have a one way sure bet. This does not look to be much of a reward though at 4% for a 6 month span. Now it becomes a question if the real interest rates are higher than the rest of the world.

And the last sentence is funny since cutting interest rates could lead to inflation and defeating the purpose of changing the exchange regime. Xpost at: Kuwaiti Dinar

Display:
The only rational GCC currency is one explicitly "asset-based" upon an agreed unit of energy, rather than deficit-based with the merely  implicit energy "backing" it now has.

The GCC might usefully set up a "Gulf Clearing Union", with a "Value Unit" consisting of the amount of the different types of Gulf produced energy one US dollar will buy at the launch date.

After that point such a "Petrodollar/ Petrodinar" would of course diverge from the terminally sick deficit-based dollar.

The Iranian OPEC rep - Kazempour Ardebili - told me a couple of years ago in the context of the - now almost mythical Iranian Oil Bourse - that he has been advocating an OPEC "Bank" and Investment Institution (to all intents and purposes a similar outcome to a Clearing Union and Carbon Fund) for almost 20 years now.

As is becoming clear, interest rates have (due to a toxic combination of securisation and credit derivatives) become an almost entirely ineffective - and indeed counter-productive - tool for Central Banks, which now to all intents and purposes are entirely irrelevant to the "real world" economy going to hell in a hand-cart.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 02:41:10 PM EST
Now that last para is another mindblower. Presumably the global mobility of corporations, whether infrastructural or financial corporations, means there are no static targets for Central Banks to hit any more.

I can't get my head around the possible consequences of THAT might be...

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 02:53:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We're seeing the dissolution of the "national" economic scope. The dissolution of the "national" political scope cannot be too far behind.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 05:19:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Strange I see that the USA has a strong positive Capital Account surplus.

Rutherfordian ------------------------------ RDRutherford
by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 03:14:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Financial Capital.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson
by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 06:40:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is that comment supposed to add to the discussion? Since (Current Account) + (Capital Account) = (Reserves), presumably a trade deficit (negative current account) correlates with a capital account surplus.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 06:25:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thank you Migeru,
So you must realize in a freely floating exchange rate, Reserves are 0 and thus Current Account and Capital Account must balance out.

So instead of saying a deficit we could just as easily state it as a surplus.

As one of my economics teacher said, just put it into the other pocket and call it what it is.

Rutherfordian ------------------------------ RDRutherford

by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 12:20:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's see, if I run up a huge credit card debt to buy stuff I'll also have a current account (trade) deficit and a capital account surplus.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 12:26:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
National and international "accounting" are totally and utterly surreal.

No relationship to reality whatever.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 12:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It might be the same if you also issued currency and everyone wanted your pieces of paper rather than actual products and services.

Rutherfordian ------------------------------ RDRutherford
by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 12:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Those pieces of paper represent promises of future products and services.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 12:46:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great, excellent.
We will no longer need the Federal Government to maintain what we call "Full Employment".


Rutherfordian ------------------------------ RDRutherford
by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 12:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
???

On another order of things...

IMF: How the IMF Can Help Promote a Collaborative Solution to Global Imbalances (Remarks by Rodrigo de Rato, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund, April 4, 2006)

The problem is that good economic performance rests on a shaky foundation, because of large and continuing global imbalances. By definition, imbalances have two sides to them. The most visible aspect of the global imbalances problem is a large deficit in the current account of the balance of payments of the United States--almost 6½ percent of GDP in 2005, and expected to be as high again this year. The other side if the coin is large surpluses in the external accounts of other countries, including oil exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, Japan and the emerging market countries of Asia, especially China. In some of these countries, current account surpluses have contributed to a very large build up of international reserves by central banks. And in the United States, repeated current account deficits have resulted in growing external indebtedness.


Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 12:52:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks again.
I am quite familiar with the IMF and have read about "Global Imbalances" mentioned quite a few times but this is a good summary of the views from the IMF.

Of course being a skeptic you must realize that any organization is always looking for relevance for itself.

Les non-concessional loans are being made and thus it needs to spend its resources in other fields that it does not know about fully yet.

Rutherfordian ------------------------------ RDRutherford

by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 03:06:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Economics professors are masters of legerdemain.

Bush is a symptom, not the disease.
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 12:42:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And what does the IMF think:
"Significant progress toward regional integration has already been achieved through elimination of barriers to free movement of goods, services, capital, and national labor; and a common external tariff. All GCC countries continue to have strong macroeconomic fundamentals characterized by large surpluses in the fiscal and external current account positions, credible pegged exchange regimes, and low nominal interest rate environments. I continue to strongly support the objective of establishing a GCC monetary union by 2010. Achieving this important objective within the agreed timeframe will however require accelerating the preparatory work to put in place the necessary institutional framework and infrastructure. The Fund stands ready to assist by providing policy advice and technical assistance in our areas of its expertise." IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato Welcomes the Large Investment Programs in the GCC Countries and Highlights the Importance of Planned Monetary Union


Rutherfordian ------------------------------ RDRutherford
by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 02:53:46 PM EST
sells in dollars and buys in euros. No wonder they want their currency to move to some extent to a more neutral position.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 05:12:52 PM EST
Yes, you do bring up an interesting point.
They should base their "basket of currencies" more or less close to what their actual trading basket is.

Yes, I believe most of the GCC or more broadly the ME sell most of their exports to the EU and very little to the US then it seems that the US dollar should be a minor portion. Unlike the Asian experiences.

Maybe if I find some information of the Kuwait's trading partners I will post it here.

Rutherfordian ------------------------------ RDRutherford

by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 05:48:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you really not aware that the GCC countries have been talking about a monetary union for years?
by the stormy present (stormypresent aaaaaaat gmail etc) on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 06:55:50 PM EST
Talking is not walking.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 07:04:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, honestly. Not until recently.
And never gave it much thought.
How many monetary unions are proposed in the world now?

I mark it up to the amazing aspect that you can find out about Monica Lewinsky, OJ Simpson... in every language.
or the amazing worldwide collective of navel gazing at the USA.

I hope you have more to add, maybe there is an older thread that you can point me to...

Rutherfordian ------------------------------ RDRutherford

by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 07:06:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 01:37:38 AM EST
by Ronald Rutherford (rdrradio1 -at- msn -dot- com) on Tue May 22nd, 2007 at 12:46:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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