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Fudging the Numbers (lazy quote diary)

by DeAnander Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 07:39:06 PM EST

This is Walden Bello at FPIF, and I couldn't-a said it better:

Development circles were not shocked last year when two studies detailed how the World Bank's research unit had been systematically manipulating data to show that neoliberal market reforms were promoting growth and reducing poverty in developing countries. They merely saw these devastating findings, one by American University Professor Robin Broad, the other by Princeton University Professor Angus Deaton and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Ken Rogoff, as but the latest episode in the collapse of the so-called Washington Consensus.


Bello's article is called "The Post-Washington Dissensus" and eventually he gets to the heart of the matter -- which "we" (the opposition to the neocons and industrial barons, that is) have known for several generations:

[... list of four would-be successor ideologies to the Washington Consensus, which ends with the Global Social Democrats whom he proceeds to critique as follows:]
First of all, it is questionable that the rapid integration of markets and production that is the essence of the globalization can really take place outside a neoliberal framework whose central prescription is the tearing down of tariffs walls and the elimination of investment restrictions. Slowing down and mitigating this inherently destabilizing process, not reversing it, is the global social democratic agenda. That global social democrats have come to terms with the fundamental tendency of global market forces to spawn poverty and inequality is admitted as much by Sachs, who sees social democratic globalization as "harnessing [of] the remarkable power of trade and investment while acknowledging and addressing limitations through compensatory collective action."

Secondly, it is likewise questionable that, even if one could conceive of a globalization that takes place in a socially-equitable framework, this would, in fact, be desirable. Do people really want to be part of a functionally integrated global economy where the barriers between the national and the international have disappeared? Would they not in fact prefer to be part of economies that are susceptible to local control and are buffered from the vagaries of the international economy? Indeed, the backlash against globalization stems not only from the inequalities and poverty it has created but also the sense of people that they have lost all semblance of control over the economy to impersonal international forces. One of the more resonant themes in the anti-globalization movement is its demand for an end to export-oriented growth and the creation of inwardly-oriented development strategies that are guided by the logic of subsidiarity, where the production of commodities takes place at the local and national level whenever that is possible, thus making the process susceptible to democratic regulation.

The Larger Problem

The fundamental problem with all four successors to the Washington Consensus is their failure to root their analysis in the dynamics of capitalism as a mode of production. Thus they fail to see that neoliberal globalization is not a new stage of capitalism, but a desperate and unsuccessful effort to overcome the crises of overaccumulation, overproduction, and stagnation that have overtaken the central capitalist economies since the mid-seventies. By breaking the social democratic capital-labor compromise of the post-World War II period and eliminating national barriers to trade and investment, neoliberal economic policies sought to reverse the long-term squeeze on growth and profitability. This "escape to the global" has taken place against the backdrop of a broader conflict-ridden process marked by renewed inter-imperialist competition among the central capitalist powers, the rise of new capitalist centers, environmental destabilization, heightened exploitation of the South - what David Harvey has called "accumulation by dispossession"- and rising resistance all around.

Globalization has failed to provide capital a escape route from its accumulating crises. With its failure, we are now seeing capitalist elites giving up on it and resorting to nationalist strategies of protection and state-backed competition for global markets and global resources, with the US capitalist class leading the way. This is the context that Jeffrey Sachs and other social democrats fail to appreciate when they advance their utopia: the creation of an "enlightened global capitalism" that would both promote and "humanize" globalization.

Late capitalism has an irreversibly destructive logic. Instead of engaging in the impossible task of humanizing a failed globalist project, the urgent task facing us is managing the retreat from globalization so that it does not provoke the proliferation of runaway conflicts and destabilizing developments such as those that marked the end of the first wave of globalization in 1914.

what he said :-)

"subsidiarity" mentioned in the article is yet another word for relocalisation or devolution:  meeting needs and making decisions on the smallest feasible scale.  I believe it also implies the doctrine of "affordable exports", i.e. that a community's own local needs should be met insofar as possible from its local resources before it starts exporting resources and incurring dependency for life-support on external powers, i.e. No More Naurus.

just coincidentally :-)  (actually not coincidentally, because elegance in design is always multifunctional) this devolution or subsidiarity also reduces considerably the waste of fossil fuels expended on transport, and a smaller scale of operations makes democratic process more workable -- your local PTA is probably more functional and less corrupt than the US Senate or the EU parliament (though I have heard some PTA horror stories in my time).

anyway, food for thought.  my quarrel with Bello, here, is that he does not correlate these events and ideas with the collapse of hegemonic and massively centralised industrial Communism, which imho is the 'zact same process in red wrapping paper.

I do wish the WB and IMF would stop pretending -- and fudging the numbers to "prove" -- that bleeding the patient some more is going to cure anaemia.  it would be a Molière farce if it didn't mean that real people are really hungry and really dying in real wars and famines.

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Thanks for bringing this article our way.

I can swear there ain't no heaven but I pray there ain't no hell. _ Blood Sweat & Tears
by Gringo (stargazing camel at aoldotcom) on Tue Sep 25th, 2007 at 10:45:13 PM EST
Thanks for this insightful article, and the link--Will graze their material and learn.
As one of the economically challenged who try to tease out the central questions of economics from the mind-numbing language that often hides them, I keep getting myself in arguments over several things that seem obvious to me:

  1. That defining prosperity exclusively as growth is incredibly irrational--- think fruit flies and bottles of culture medium--, and

  2. That the continued denial of the failure of neoliberal economics--or globalization's failure to deliver on ANY of it's promises is a miracle of self-deception rivaling the warming deniers.

Or perhaps a miracle of marketing-- ice to Inuits.
Of course they cook the books.

3) A national or regional entity that fails to devise policy that maintains the local sustainability of such things as agriculture --those things that make survival possible- would be irrational and irresponsible.

On these areas, I often take a beating from the "experts"-- nice to read that "subsidiarity" , "relocalization" and "devolution" can mean what I thought they meant--to someone else besides me.    

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Wed Sep 26th, 2007 at 03:23:45 AM EST
Very interesting paper. Here are the two studies he is referring to:

The Bretton Woods Project's page presenting Robin Broad's research: "Research, knowledge and the art of"paradigm maintenance" The World Bank's development economics vice-presidency (DEC)"

The World Bank's page presenting the report: "Evaluation of Bank Research", directed by Angus Deaton, Kenneth Rogoff, Abhijit Banerjee and Nora Lustig, and the response by the current Chief Economist, François Bourguignon as well as the responses by the former Chief Economists Nicholas Stern and Joseph Stiglitz.  

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Wed Sep 26th, 2007 at 05:20:01 AM EST
good catch, de...thanks.

think fruit flies and bottles of culture medium

yes, though i lean to the analogy lately of measuring the weight of a tumour (growth) to the weight (gdp) of the 'patient'.

thieving, dissembling loan sharks, scumsuckers the lot of them.

expose!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Sep 27th, 2007 at 04:57:42 AM EST
What is very interesting in this paper is that Walden Bello classifies and characterises very clearly the different approaches towards globalisation. However, I do not understand his criticism of what he calls the "Global Social-Democracy".

When he claims:

it is questionable that the rapid integration of markets and production that is the essence of the globalization can really take place outside a neoliberal framework whose central prescription is the tearing down of tariffs walls and the elimination of investment restrictions.
he doesn't explain why. This criticism is not consistent with the fact that he quotes Stiglitz, saying that
"rich countries should simply open up their markets to poorer ones, without reciprocity and without economic or political conditionality [and] middle-income countries should open up their markets to the least developed countries, and should be allowed to extend preferences to one another without extending them to the rich countries, so that they need not fear that imports might kill their nascent industries."

When he says:

it is likewise questionable that, even if one could conceive of a globalization that takes place in a socially-equitable framework, this would, in fact, be desirable. Do people really want to be part of a functionally integrated global economy where the barriers between the national and the international have disappeared? Would they not in fact prefer to be part of economies that are susceptible to local control and are buffered from the vagaries of the international economy?

he brings up the concept of economic subsidiarity. Whereas we can say that the global social democratic approach doesn't put enough emphasis on economic subsidiarity, it is not contradictory with the global social-democracy

Subsidiarity is a key word in the European Union (EUROPA - Glossary - Subsidiarity) but it applies mainly to political decision-making and very seldom to the economy.

The concept of economic subsidiarity is a very interesting one. Economic subsidiarity in a broader sense implies that the production of goods and services should take place at the nearest possible level and should be susceptible to democratic regulation.

There is little literature about economic subsidiarity. All I have found, so far, is on the site of the Charles Léopold Mayer Foundation for Human Progress, which I know quite well.

I think the concept of economic subsidiarity should be a key concept of a new narrative. But to be able to promote it, we have to develop it. The principle is quite simple, but what requires reflection, particularly about the different level (local, national, regional and global) articulate with one another as well as the methods and tools to implement it. Even if, as Stiglitz proposes, selective protectionism should be used in developing countries, economic subsidiarity cannot be reduced to simple protectionism, mainly because protectionism cannot easily be applied at sub-national level, which would be necessary within big countries.

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet

by Melanchthon on Thu Sep 27th, 2007 at 08:53:26 AM EST


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