Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

Russia debate: To be as cruel as the Americans or not to be (Updated)

by The3rdColumn Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 07:22:18 AM EST

Where Russia's nuclear forces are based

(Map of Russia's nuclear arsenal lifted from The Daily Telegraph)

Here is a definitely not amusing subject for a 'debate', one that concerns the other side of the border: Russia, and which comes at the heel of Russian bombers that were sent in the Bay of Biscay a couple of days ago.

According to The First Post, the great Russian debate centers on: "In order for America not to beat Russia we will need to be as cruel as the Americans'"

Diary rescue by Migeru


[editor's note, by Migeru] Fold inserted here.
The sending of Russian bombers to test-fire missiles in the Bay of Biscay yesterday comes as a debate rages in Russia about how the country should regain its national pride.

Argumenty I Fakty, the respected weekly newspaper read by 3m Russians, asked last week whether Russia should, in effect, become a 'second America' and attempt to return to its former Soviet greatness by arming itself as though it were still a superpower? If so, this would mean flexing military might at every available opportunity.

Or should Mother Russia accept that she cannot hope to equal or beat America and that perhaps social and commercial development ­ - not brute force - ­ are the solution?

In Argumenty I Fakty, Alexander Dugin, director of Russia's Centre of Geopolitics, argued that Russia must crush her enemies and do whatever is necessary to become a military adversary to America. "Looking at our territory, resources and history, Russia is never going to become a quiet, 'vegetarian' country," he wrote. "Russia must become America's equal. The alternative is simple: either we become our own masters ­ or our fate will be in someone else's hands."

If the US can invade Iraq and get away with it, he added, Russia should not be afraid to protect her own interests ­ as in Georgia, for example. "In order for America not to beat Russia we will need to be as cruel and aggressive as the Americans." Russia, he believes, is not far off becoming a great European empire.

...

The conclusion so far? Argumenty I Fakty announced its verdict in an editorial: "Now the world considers our [Russia's] politics aggressive. But were we any better off 10 or 15 years ago when we were considered weak and lowly, dancing to the West's tune?" Aggression, it seems, is always better than weakness.

Full story "Friend or foe? The great Russian debate" in The First Post...

My western mind doesn't frankly know how to absorb Argumenty I Fakty's logic (must confess I have no idea what the newspaper's true ideological leaning is as I'm not at all familiar with the paper) but if I am to base their arguments on Russia's Stalinist past, I think there is reason for concern. However, there is a possiblity that they are just being naughty too, and they merely want to increase readership; also, could be that there is a more 'noble' subliminal message to their US friends and allies in Europe, i.e., a challenge to shape up and put up as in let there be peace sort of thing.

Must admit these are but just 'musings' on my part and would like to hear from our own Russia afficionados in ET.

But lest there be any misunderstanding, allow me to say what I think unequivocally: that there are some quarters in Russia (and I'm weighing my words) who certainly believe in a more, much more aggressive form of Caesar's military and political dogma, "Si vis pacem para bellum... "

So, as things stand, I say "Watch out!" because from the looks of it, the Russians are coming... again (the cry in the US in the early 60s)!

Additional info on Russia's nuclear arsenals (Source: The Daily Telegraph)

Russia has the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, with an estimated total of 16,000 warheads, of which 7,200 are believed to be operational.

The Soviet Union had an estimated total of 35,000 warheads. The Americans have 9,960 warheads of which 5,735 are operational. Russia’s nuclear weapons can be fired from land-based silos, submarines and bomber planes.

This “nuclear triad”, as it is known, comprises Strategic Rocket Forces (land based): 489 missiles capable of carrying up to 1,788 warheads Strategic Fleet (sea based): 12 submarines capable of carrying up to 609 warheads Strategic Aviation Units: 79 bombers capable of carrying up to 884 Cruise missiles.

Under the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions (SORT), better known as the Moscow Treaty, signed in 2002, the United States and Russia have agreed to limit their arsenal to 1,700-2,200 operational warheads by 2012. The treaty sets no limits on the size of reserve stockpiles, however.

Russia tested its latest generation of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, the RS-24, last month. (May 2007)

Display:
What I find ominous and disquieting: murmurs from Neo-Soviet and NATO military 'thinkers' about the thinkability of 'preventive war' and 'pre-emptive strikes', (nuclear and conventional) as a way of dealing with proliferation. In their life times, will Busheney be able to tell us, "We told you so"? Have they managed to unearth Herman Kahn?

I reserve my right to revise and extend my remarks upon my return to The Vigil.
by Vigilante (Vigilante.sozadee@gmail.com) on Sat Jan 26th, 2008 at 02:19:49 AM EST
In my view -- something I have expressed in other posts, we have to assume that all nations are capable of obtaining lethal weapons at some stage. Nations are governed by people and as such, there is no guarantee that one leader is immuned to the temptaion of dominating or supremacy, or whatever the motive, eg, Bush.

We have to assume that there will be leaders who will obtrain these lethal weapons at some stage to counter that threat or fear facton.  

I echo the view of some 'militarists': DETERRENCE... what we want is for rogue elements in our world to fully understand that the use of those weapons WOULD BE TOTALLY COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE.

We need to persuade and convince them that they can live in this world together with us, despite cultural, linguistic, religious differences. We do not, absolutely not, want to make them feel so desperate and FEARFUL that they feel they have nothing to lose and make a violently aggressive gesture.

by The3rdColumn on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 08:43:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This sort of thing seems to be all the rage at the moment. NATO talking about first use of nuclear weapons, the Russians doing similar things, holding soppy exercises and having a parade of penises missiles in Red Square.

I wonder what lies behind this and realise that it's largely that all around the world the military machines are seeing the End times of the Bush regime as their last chance to have a good death rattle.

I think we just have to make it through the enxt few years adn we'll be in post-military situations as it dawns on our elites that destroying the world as part of some immature playground pissing contest is a stupid thing to do. But whilst we still ive in a world dominated by politicians schooled in a world of endless possibility, they alwasy dream of global domination.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jan 27th, 2008 at 02:50:23 PM EST
Unfortunately we cannot undo what's been done -- the development of nuclear weapons. It can be stopped but the knowledge remains. What the world should try to understand is to remind everyone living in this world that military scenarios are not a wi-win situation.

Re NATO's stand concerning the nuclear option, I believe it is predicated on deterrence.

by The3rdColumn on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 08:47:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
military scenarios are not a wi-win situation.

That's not good enough. Win-lose situations are good enough for warmongers. The point should be that military scenarios, especially involving nuclear weapons, are lose-lose situations.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 08:50:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed; that is if leaders understand that pushing the envelope of nuclear options IS lose lose all the way.

But I believe the current thinking of most generals in the west military solutions should be THE LAST OPTION.

However, what if the military's last option, i.e., if all else fails, eg., diplomacy, negotiations, etc., and if the policy of deterrence fails, what is a nation we to do?

Understand that I'm not referring to the Bush dogma of strike while the iron is hot sort of thing.  

by The3rdColumn on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:39:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I like Kennedy's way of handling the conflict against Kruschev; war was not to be the option - it was if at all option of last resort.
by The3rdColumn on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:43:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but if I am to base their arguments on Russia's Stalinist past, I think there is reason for concern.

Gah.  I just love how people devote themselves to freaking out about Russia based on events 70 years ago and turn right around and scold Russia for even hinting that they might have a past.  And then we wonder why the Russians are so incensed all the time.  Blows my mind...

Look, so long as every other country in the world has a right to defend itself and its interests using the leverage of a strong military, I don't see why we demand Russia remain an exception...   Until we agree to change our own ways, the fact is the Americans are coming, and that  Russia is one of the countries with UNSC veto power might be in part to thank for  the Americans not having done even more damage.   Fear mongering about what Russia expresses a desire for while America is actually running around invading other countries seems nutty.  Especially since Russia has shown a willingness and capacity to use soft power (diplomacy might not be the right word, I grant you...) which America has not...

I actually find no fault with this:

either we become our own masters ­ or our fate will be in someone else's hands."  

I really wished we lived in a world where no one had a military.  If we fear a well-armed Russia, the solution is to lead by example.  

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:42:42 AM EST
Alas, man's instict to fight was borne of thousands of years of fighting, hunting, bickering.

Utopia will always be utopia.

But I do agree that it is imperative not to give in to warmongering and fearmongering for that matter, but in the same vein I think Caesar's dogma is still a useful dogma to avert war or physical conflict of inhuman proportions: si vis pacem para bellum. This dogma is generic -- it can be used not only in the strictest term of warring per se but could be used in other internationla political conflict scenarios...

Like you, I sincerely hope we've heard the last of Bush-Blair warmongering dogma...

by The3rdColumn on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:50:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The evil twin of the Prisoner's Dilemma.  I'll disarm if you disarm first.  But in the meantime I'm going to talk tough and rearm so you know I mean business.

We all bleed the same color.
by budr on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 08:46:11 AM EST
The fact that most have the "tactical" neutron bomb and even neutron shells seems less deterrent then the "messy" H bomb...

After all it's all about "surgical hits"... And keeping an oil that doesn't glow in the dark !!!

"What can I do, What can I write, Against the fall of Night". A.E. Housman

by margouillat (hemidactylus(dot)frenatus(at)wanadoo(dot)fr) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 09:43:28 AM EST
margouillat:
The fact that most have the "tactical" neutron bomb
I was under the impression nobody actually "has" neutron bombs in their arsenal even if they produced them in the past.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 10:45:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In France we are supposed to have it, neatly folded in technical data, tested, and ready to start a factory line, if need arise !

While we all have signed a disarmament treaty that stops neutron bomb making, I wouldn't be very surprised if some "industrial grade" test models weren't somewhere around... Just as nerve gas and other biochemical weaponry's !
I imagine that in Russia and the States there could be a bit more of those as... "You know, those research laboratory are so big, we just can't account for some lost crates !"

Now that "rogues states" are having the H bomb, the "Nice" ones would feel they are entitled to take a step further...

"What can I do, What can I write, Against the fall of Night". A.E. Housman

by margouillat (hemidactylus(dot)frenatus(at)wanadoo(dot)fr) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 10:59:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is particularly galling about that piece is that the West was so busy fucking Russia over with Instant Capitalism(TM) and Shock Therapy while Russia was weak that it's not entirely implausible that Russia seems to be better off being belligerent. After all, they did try to be our friends back in the last decade of yestercentury. And that got them kicked when they were lying down. It truly is small wonder they don't trust us.

I wonder how the lessons of Versailles could be forgotten so quickly...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 09:46:12 AM EST
Think of what it would be like if they were our enemies again.
by The3rdColumn on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 03:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, we should be able to treat them like shit and demand they fall in line with us anyway, because the world would be too dangerous if they were our enemies.

The onus is on them to roll over and not on us to start behaving like responsible adults.

What is this?  It's foreign policy for wife-beaters.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 03:16:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
nothing like that at all -- more like the other way around -- like we would be all shitting on ourselves like during the Cold War.
by The3rdColumn on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 03:40:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not at all. For one thing, during the Cold War, there were Russian divisions in Germany. I'm not proposing anything like that.

For that matter, I think that the EU is actually in the right in most of the political controversies recently. Kosova clearly should be permitted to go its own ways - although I fail to see the need to be quite as rude and high-handed about it as we've been; the Caucasian ex-soviet states should clearly be free to align with whatever power bloc they want - or stay unaligned, for that matter - without running the risk of military 'intervention' from disgruntled would-be overlords; Ukraine should be free to elect its own government, irregardless of what Brussels, Washington and Moscow think about the government in question; Russian newsies should be free to write whatever they want without having to be afraid of FSB goons gunning them down on the street; etc., etc., etc.

But we only have so much political capital. And we - Europe, that is - decided to squander it making Instant Capitalism(TM) and pissing on Russian dignity in the early ninties. That was as blind as it was stupid, and now the political chickens are coming home to roost. Pressing the issue when you are clearly in the wrong means that you'll be less able to press the issue when you are clearly (or not so clearly) in the right. Right now we are paying the price for our high-handedness 15 years ago and and quite frankly we have nobody and nothing to blame for that but ourselves and our own stupidity and arrogance.

I want Europe to be a responsible great power on the global stage, not a power-drunk empire that petulantly strikes out against anyone who doesn't dance to our tune. The world has entirely too many of those as it is. And part of being a responsible player on the global stage is acknowledging when you've fucked up and acknowledging that fuck-ups come with a political cost.

The truly galling part of it was that most progressives knew that Instant Capitalism(TM) and Shock Therapy were Bad Ideas. In that sense, it's not our fault, and it's eminently unfair that we have to see the fight for progressive ideals hamstrung because a gang of far-right ideologues decided to use Russia as a sandbox for those policies that were too manifestly insane for even the American public to swallow. In fact, it's desperately, wretchedly unfair. But life isn't fair, and we can't let the madmen run the asylum for a decade and then expect everyone else to forgive and forget and not hold us accountable for the actions our countries took during that period.

What we can do - in fact what we should do - is make damn sure that the 'credit' for the current antipathy between Russia and the Union goes where the 'credit' is due: To the atlanticist, far-right neoliberals who deliberately ran Russia into the ground nose-first and at several hundred km/h at the time when we could least afford such insanity.

Blaming Russia for the errors of our own domestic madmen is neither productive nor responsible. First, it antagonises Russia, who will likely - and not entirely unfairly - consider it childish and arrogant; second, it allows the aforementioned madmen to blame the crisis on Russia instead of paying the domestic political cost that by all right should be associated with fucking up our foreign relations with our most important neighbour for what looks like good and ever.

</rant>

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 12:44:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not a rant - a great comment.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 04:35:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To rant is a state of mind. Trust me, it was a rant. This is one of the few foreign policy subjects that pisses me off more and faster than Vietraq.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 04:46:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right. But what's going to happen? Some forces in Russia see the US trying to squeeze Russia with the help of American allies. Russian patriots keep sounding the alarm bells and warning their countrymen of danger for Russia. They want Russia to modernize its defenses with new weapons, regardless of the cost. American allies want the US to show Russia the American fist. Where's all this going to end?
by Anthony Williamson on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 10:02:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If we're lucky, the relationship between Russia and the Union is going to be chilly at best.

If we're unlucky, Russia is going to go on (more) military adventures in Caucasus. Both to prove a point and to secure their sphere of interest.

If we're really unlucky, Russia is going to try to fuck us over somehow - and there are a variety of creative and very painful ways in which they can do that, all of which stop short of outright war (which I don't believe is a realistic threat unless people on both sides screw up by the numbers even worse than they're doing now).

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 10:44:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think Russia is going to war in Caucasus - unless, of course, Georgia is admitted into NATO without even attempting to propose to the two "breakaway territories" a half-decent deal.

In this case, Georgia will attack immediately with the US-trained and NATO-equipped troops; Russia will have no choice but to respond - after all, several hundred thousand Russian citizens would be under attack, and no self-respecting country will leave so many compatriots to the mercy of marauding invaders (Abkhaz people still tell horror stories about performance of Georgian paramilitaries in the early 90es). And then Chapter 5 will go into play.

Any sane person should be "writing to their representative or senator" now, as they say in the USA.

by Sargon on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:52:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you know what the outcome was of the NATO accession referendum held simultaneously with the latest Presidential election?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:43:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, I don't. Do you mean in the Ukraine?
by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:48:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean in Georgia.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:51:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to reports from Georgia, 77 percent of the voters voted in favor of Georgia joining NATO. The Georgian opposition claimed the results were falsified and they called for a referendum on NATO with the people voting whether Georgia should remain neutral in international affairs, but Georgia's Central Election Commission refused to issue ballots, saying neutrality would mean Georgia would have to change its political views, abrogate its international treaties and even withdraw from the United Nations. The opposition's opponents called the initiative for a referendum a "provocation."
by Anthony Williamson on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 02:13:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does Chapter 5 apply when a NATO member initiates the attack?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:53:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Basically Chapter 5 is an attack ON one is an attack ON all but say, an attack BY one, eg., America attacks Russia, is NOT an attack ON any member.

The provision is clear cut: the NATO treaty IS A DEFENSIVE TREATY and is NOT AN AGGRESSIVE treaty.

This was why when America attacked Iraq, NATO did not support America.

by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Abkhazia and South Ossetia are internationally recognised as part of Georgia. Therefore, we get into the murky waters of de-facto independence and interference in domestic affairs in the case that Russia responded to a Georgian operation in those two regions.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If we're basing it on mutual defence assistance among NATO member nations, i.e., the attack on one is an attack on all dogma, nothing NATO can do about it -- Georgia is not a member of NATO.

However, there sure is a clear interference in domestic affairs by Russia in that domain. But up to Georgia to voice its opposition against foreign interference if it wants to; realisticaly, there is the UN for starters.

by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:21:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Georgia might become a member of NATO in the very near future, which is what Sargon was talking about. Sakaashvili organised referenda on whether to hold Parliamentary elections and whether to join NATO concurrently with the recent Presidential election where he won a second term. Western media said precious little about the referenda.

VOA News: Georgia Votes in Favor of NATO (6 January 2008)

Georgia's snap presidential election on Saturday included a non-binding referendum on whether the country should join NATO. An overwhelming majority voted in favor of such membership. VOA Correspondent Peter Fedynsky asked voters in Tbilisi why they seek an alliance with the West, knowing it will antagonize Russia, Georgia's powerful next-door neighbor.

Check out http://www.eu-nato.gov.ge/ also.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:38:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We'll have to wait until they become official member. Russia will not be pleased when that happens.
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:47:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That Russia will not be pleased is exactly Sargon's point upthread.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:50:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Putin has been one smart aleck. He knew it was going to happen, i.e., Georgia riding away from Russian sphere of influence so what does he do? He tries to undermine NATO alliance by signing up their members who are with the EU to his GAS/ENERGY SUPPLY club ONE BY ONE.

This is where EU member nations are clearly not 'in step' with what they espouse, 'unity'.

Watch out for Russia -- Putin, not Blair, er, I mean Brown or our cousins on the other side of the pond might be just the fellow who could dismantle the EU.

by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:06:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We have let ourselves be played by the US and Russia in various ways. Either the EU gets its act together on foreign policy or the US and Russia will tear it apart.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:08:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Totally agree!
by The3rdColumn on Mon Feb 11th, 2008 at 10:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's what the treaty says. But in the end it's going to be a political decision. Always was, always will be. If the NATO partners want a big fight, they'll call it a clause 5 whether it is or not (think 9/11), and if they don't want a big fight, they'll call it Georgian aggression against Russia (think the Greek-Turkish war).

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:54:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There are several hundred thousand Russian citizens in South Ossetia and Abkhazia?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:42:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. IIRC, more than 200,000 in Abkhasia and 50,000 or more in SO. Basically, non-ethic Georgian population of these places refused Georgian citizenship, arguing that they wanted independence and never were part of Georgia in 1921 borders (this is the state whose inheritor Georgia claimed to be). USSR citizens who didn't claim any other citizenship were to a large degree entitled to a Russian one. Hence a huge number of Russian passport holders in these two and Transdnistria.

On NATO being defensive alliance: it is surprisingly hard to establish what really happens there. Very often, all material evidence gets blown up before any international observes have a chance to verify claims. Believe me, if Georgians were to create a pretext for a "defensive" war, they wouldn't be caught red-handed like Americans with Iranian boats recently.

by Sargon on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 03:31:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sad but very realistic scenari.
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:11:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US will be kidding themselves if they believe that Russia won't budge if they 'squeeze' Russia too much.

Remember when Putin raises spectre of nuclear war in Europe sometime in June last year or just before the G8 summt?

Well, Bush blinked! He knew damn well that Putin was no pushover. At a press conference, the usually adversarial Bush said,

He then went on to reassure the Russian president,

"It is important for Russia and Russians to understand that I believe the Cold War ended, that Russia is not an enemy of the United States, that there's a lot of areas where we can work together."

Bush the bully knew he couldn't twerp Putin all he wants so instead of his characteristic damn all attitude, he now coyly insists the system is only designed to guard against an attack by rogue states such as North Korea or Iran.

by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:26:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The3rdColumn:
Bush ... now coyly insists the system is only designed to guard against an attack by rogue states such as North Korea or Iran.
But that is patent nonsense, it's clear the missiles and radars in Poland and the Czech Republic are aimed at Russia, even if Czech and Polich politicians are also claiming its purpose is to deal with Iran and North Korea.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:16:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Totally agree with you Migeru -- Bush was trying to talk his way out of his crisis with Putin through his backside!
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:17:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But the fact is that the plans continue to be discussed and European governments don't oppose them, despite the fact that they are a needless provocation of Russia, a distraction, and being sold on false premises.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like you I am at a loss on why European govts or at least those who have members in NATO are not publicly standing up against the 'provocation.'

Following Bush's declaration that the missile cover was intended "against NoKor and Iran", and the US president to join the missile cover club, Putin ever the smart aleck made a counter proposition: Ukraine. Heh! Bush playing chess with a Russian...

I don't trust Putin (no more than I trust Bush) and I believe we should go by the old fashion way of doing things with a nation we don't trust -- talk! I believe in diplomacy and so do many of the Europeans and am sure we can get sort of settle things with Putin if only we didn't have this Bush albatross around our necks. Thank goodness, Bush is about to go.

by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:39:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ukraine? I thought it was Azerbaijan.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 03:57:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oooops... Of course it was Azerbaijan. (My flu's gone but seems I'm still high on Lemsip:)
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 04:06:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And hang on again, Putin proposed somewhere near Azerbaijan and not exactly in Azerbaijan. But can't remember which country it is anymore to be exact.
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 04:08:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When Bush said that the missile shield was a "purely defensive" plan to thwart the potential of a nuclear threat from Iran, wonder if Putin asked him,

For crying out loud, why would Iran want to nuke the Czech Republic or Poland?
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:45:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And even leaving aside fact that an Iranian or Korean nuclear threat against those countries is an outright preposterous notion, no missile shield in the world is going to protect you against re-entry phase ballistic warheads. You have to get them in the boost phase, which means that all the our Eastern European compatriots are accomplishing in terms of their own security is creating a few more military targets for people to shoot at.

Stupid, arrogant political grandstanding, in other words.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 02:28:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A great rant, but I really think that our neoliberals played a rather minor role compared to the American 'economic advisers' and encirclement specialists. (While on the other side, Schröder was friends with Putin.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:07:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Schröder came later, I believe JakeS is referring mostly to the Yeltsin years and the biggest mistake I think the West™ made was to tacitly support Yeltsin's self-coup against the Duma. By the time Putin entered the stage the "liberals" (Yavlinski and his lot) had no influence left.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:02:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I believe JakeS is referring mostly to the Yeltsin years

Bingo.

Of course our own domestic neolibs weren't the big movers and shakers. The Big Neighbour to the West was. But there are two points worth keeping in mind here:

First, it's not like Europe wasn't trying to push the very same policies. The fact that we didn't have the clout to be anything other than cheerleaders does not excuse that, nor does it change the fact that by joining the US in pushing for those policies, we did create a not entirely unjustified perception in Russia that we were not their friends.

Second, I'm not so sure that the notion that Europe really isn't an integral part of The West(TM) (no, really, we aren't - honest!) is going to fly in most parts of the world - including Moscow. Certainly, as long as Europe bends to the will of Washington even in cases where it is obviously against our own best interest to do so (think missile defence, think Vietraq), the rest of the world would be downright crazy to not regard us as US-lite.

Of course we were not alone in making this mess, and I'm not trying to make excuses for Russia - Chthulu knows that the occupation of Chechnya alone should condemn most Russian politicians to the hottest circles of Hell. But there is more than enough blame to go around and while most of it probably should go to Washington and Moscow, I think it's counterproductive to attempt to whitewash this particular shameful part of our history.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:39:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "... that the occupation of Chechnya alone should condemn most Russian politicians to the hottest circles of Hell." That's a given. Unfortunately a leader from the West needs to be on moral high ground to attack Russian politicians over Chechnya.
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:32:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely a big chunk of responsibility lands in Europe, too?

Why can't Germany, for example, stand up to the U.S. and kick out the American bases? Why doesn't the EU get a backbone and fund its own defenses (or non-defenses) and kick out NATO? Why continue to take the "easy" way out and rely on the U.S. to come in and clean up (in her incredibly awkward fashion) problems in the Balkans? Does Europe really want to be the battleground where Russia and America try out their tanks and bombs?

There is a bit of a mystery in all this...

by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:37:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You missed JakeS's bit about Atlanticism:
What we can do - in fact what we should do - is make damn sure that the 'credit' for the current antipathy between Russia and the Union goes where the 'credit' is due: To the atlanticist, far-right neoliberals who deliberately ran Russia into the ground nose-first and at several hundred km/h at the time when we could least afford such insanity.


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:42:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
asdf, Re Germany: Something to do with Terms of rendition.

Re: "Why doesn't the EU get a backbone and fund its own defenses (or non-defenses) and kick out NATO?"

Hang on a minute! What are you ranting on about?

First of all, it is important to know that as a unified fighting force, the EU has a very limited defence force -- it's called the European Defence Agency and is not even a fighting force as of yet; 2ndly, where do you think the tiny EDA gets its funding from? From the USA? You gotta be kidding!

Thirdly, you seem to believe that the US on its own FINANCES, FUNDS, SPENDS FOR NATO! VERY WRONG! Tackled this already in another thread: WTF got into US Defence Sec Gates...?

I suggest you read on NATO, they have a user friendly website.

by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:50:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess I just don't understand why there is a NATO any more...
by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:10:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobody on this site does. You might want to try over at Atlantic Review.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:18:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After the USSR got dismantled, true NATO lost its reason for being. For a few years, there were questions about the justification for the continuing existence of NATO or that it has lived out its usefulness. Nations decided (with the prodding of the US) to go on and frankly, I think as things stood during the Kosovo debacle in the 90s and as things go today, I believe NATO has become a useful entity again.
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:31:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with DoDo on his take.
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:37:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Anyone heard about the Nashi (Putin-jugend) people holding a rally outside the Estonian embassy in Moscow a few days ago, wearing WW2 Soviet uniforms? No?

Well, that's the media for you. Imagine the outrage if Estonians had shown up outside the Russian embassy in Tallinn wearing Waffen-SS uniforms.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 09:51:41 AM EST
Waffen SS was declared a criminal organisation but not the Soviet Army. To change this simple fact you'll need to re-fight the WWII, and I don't think anyone in Europe has a stomach for this.

But it's not news that Nazi are again 'in' in the EU, especially after the Baltics were admitted, of course.

by Sargon on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 10:28:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The winners write the history...

Obviously, the Soviet army had every right in the world to defend, and repell, German aggression. No question at all there. But on the same lines, the Estonians had every right to defend against Soviet aggression, and after being occupied by the Soviets, joining the Waffen SS was the only possibility (as foreigners weren't allowed in the Wehrmacht, while the Waffen SS had entire foreign divisions). Lots of patriotic non-nazi Estonians joined that organisation.

Which is why lining up people in Soviet uniforms outside an Estonian embassy is the same as having people in Waffen-SS uniforms line up outside a Russian one. It's a great way to intimidate, threaten and insult your neighbour, while at the same time politically correct at home. A bit like flying around with nuclear bombers.

It's very dangerous.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 04:27:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The analogy does not hold up. Yes, demonstrating outside another country's embassy wearing military uniforms - any kind of military uniforms - is a highly antagonistic move. But the Red Army is a different beast from the Wehrmacht or the Waffen-SS, if for no other reason than the fact that it existed for a longer time before WWII and a longer time afterwards. The Red Army can be better likened to the US Marines. Sure, a demonstration featuring US Marine uniforms outside the Venezuelan embassy is a highly antagonistic move - no doubt about it, but it does not quite rise to the level of Wehrmacht/Waffen-SS symbolism.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 12:52:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see your point, sorry.

And the Red Army being around longer than the Wehrmacht? I don't see it, even given literal dates of foundation/cessation (I'm not looking them up, but you can properly see the Wehrmacht as the direct inheritor of the army of Prussia.)

Antagonism is in the eye of the beholder anyway. To look at your analogy, why wouldn't Venezualans be legitimately as pissed about Marines? It's not like they ever got invaded by the Germans.

The Nazi are not some ultimate symbol for evil for everone on the face of the planet. Many peoples have their own demons they consider far worse.

by wing26 on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 06:56:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I don't think the Wehrmacht and the Waffen SS are comparable either.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 07:50:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Point. Definitely a point.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 09:07:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Nazi are not some ultimate symbol for evil for everone on the face of the planet. Many peoples have their own demons they consider far worse.

Which may or may not be justified. Nationalists in all the countries once occupied by the Soviet Union who play apologists for the fascists and Nazi-allied in their countries usually 'forget' about compatriots exterminated by the Nazis. But then, for anti-semites and such, those compatriots weren't real compatriots to begin with.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So you're saying the Nazi occupation of Estonia was more benign than the Russian occupation preceding it at the beginning of WWII? So benign, in fact, that it was "patriotic" to support the nazi occupation? (We'll leave the post-WWII period out of this comparison for the time being)

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 08:37:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the Finnish seemed to think so, for a while at least. Don't know enough about the Baltics and the Balkans to separate the fact from the propaganda.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 09:05:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the case of Finland, the Western™ conventional wisdom is that "Finlandisation" was bad because it accomodated the Soviet neighbour, whereas joining the Axis was a good, patriotic thing to do to achieve the same end, namely to retain independence.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 09:35:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the Estonians had every right to defend against Soviet aggression

The Waffen SS wasn't born after the Red Army counter-attack pushed back the Nazis from Russia. Invasion is no defense.

joining the Waffen SS was the only possibility

No, forming partisan groups fighting both sides is another possibility.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:16:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The winners write the history...

And whom do you consider "the winners"? I've spent enough time away from Russia to understand that it wasn't Soviet Union who controlled the world WWII discourse. D-Day is more important to a normal Westerner than Stalingrad (today is 65th anniversary of the end of that epic battle, BTW).

If you are talking about non-Nazi as the victors - well, sorry, but that's what has happened. Good luck changing that fact.

Full disclosure: as a representative of a race which was supposed to be either a) killed or starved to death; b) turned into slave labor once again, or c) subsist in a huge ghetto beyond Urals, I am clearly biased. Aryans might feel differently, but I don't feel sorry for you.

I am too disgusted to continue.

by Sargon on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:06:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Very confusing times them to say the least.
by The3rdColumn on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:34:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you expplain what this comment has to do with anything?  Thanks.  

 

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 11:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Starvid is on rysskräck.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 11:55:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is that some kind of sleekly-designed, under-priced crack that requires self-assembly and smells vaguely of herring?

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 12:19:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Herring of the red persuasion to be precise.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 12:23:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Poemless"
Bah. That reply WAS a poem.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 02:01:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Everyone around here has a lot of nice things to say about me lately, but it's like my diaries have the plague.  What gives?

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 02:17:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Your diaries have the plague. We were trying to be polite and not mention it but the sores are beginning to weep and we really can't go over there right now.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 02:19:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Technically, all of us here of European descent are alive because our ancestors had some mutated gene which kept them from dying of the plague.  So you should be immune to my diary.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 02:25:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A standard explanation as to why Black Death stopped around Great Duchy of Lithuania's border is that this was the boundary of steam baths existence. Less flattering to Eastern Slavs explanation is the winter. In any case, those of us born to the East are not so sure about that gene... and we do visit your diaries... vermin, vermin, I know...
by Sargon on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 02:55:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps I should have said, "of Western European descent."

Steam baths?  Maybe.  Winter?  I don't know.  It's been -18(C) and below here much of the winter and there is still some nasty virus making us all sick.  

Maybe it was the vodka.  I hear that will kill almost anything. ;)

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 03:26:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe it was the vodka.  I hear that will kill almost anything. ;)

and almost anyone. But it was not invented at that point in time.
by Sargon on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Scandinavia that also left immunity to HIV (due to some absurd chance, ash HIV didn't even exist back then), which quite a big fraction of the population still carries, IIRC.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 04:25:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There appears to be a link.

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/secrets/case_plague/clues.html

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 04:31:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I promise to go read them very soon.
by PIGL (stevec@boreal.gmail@com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 10:25:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've been scratching fleabites since the last one I looked into. Didn't like those rats scurrying around in the corners either.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 04:16:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are pretty loose in your Nazism comparisons. Do you really think that the Waffen SS (not even the Wehrmacht, but the Waffen SS!) was no worse than Red Army? Do you really think that the Nashi equate to a semi-state organisation brainwashing young children (even to the extent of making them spy on their parents) and in the end even commanding them off to war as child soldiers?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We've had a lot of this lately, right here on ET-
Perhaps it ought to be reassuring that the rest of the world has opinion makers as stupid as the American Straussian dingbats, but the whole idea of "becoming as cruel and agressive as the Americans" as a road to political independence is so ---utterly stupid--
The consequences of "being aggressive and cruel--" in the fashion of the "Empire" are pretty obvious.
It's as if Russia had it's own subset of idiot neocons, whose fabricated reality is impervious to any input from the real world-- or, denies the existence of any more solid reality. It's as if the central idiocy of this is invisible--even here.
The best thing they might learn from the US is what NOT to do.

That said, a non-submissive, assertive policy package is potentially an asset to us all-

The Empire could use a counterbalance.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 02:24:50 PM EST
Re "as a road to political independence " Unfortunately the Russian debate topic in the thread is not based solely on the premise of military assertiveness or aggressiveness 'as a road to political independence' but as a way of re-establishing the Russian empire; remember the Russian newspaper's editorial about upholding their interests in say, Georgia?
by The3rdColumn on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 03:05:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's what those of us living in or at the borders of teh former Russian empire worries about. We don't want any Russian meddling in our domestic affairs, and we even less want to be a part of Russia.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 04:47:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Aleksandr Dugin, one of the men quoted in Argumenty i Fakty, is said to have influence on political circles in Russia; therefore, his views on this topic are worth hearing, though some of the ideas this prolific political writer and speaker has outlined in his articles sound eccentric, like "In order for America not to beat Russia we will need to be as cruel and aggressive as the Americans." Moreover, few Westerners will know what to make of his Theses on Russian Patriotism, published a few months ago. There, among other things, he gives a long mystic description of Russian patriotism, and he says every decent person on earth is a Russian.

There has been a discussion going on in Russia for quite a while now about were the country is going and what should best be done. The well-known German Friedrich Ebert Foundation conducted an opinion poll in Russia about five years ago and found out that almost half of the young Russians polled wanted to see Russia become a strong country causing trepidation among other countries and commanding respect.

Some of the reports these days in Russian media sound ominous, like an article in the newspaper of the Russian Defense Ministry about the end of the Russian military exercises in the Bay of Biscay, saying the Russian fleet is back on the seas to stay.

Russian public opinion has definitely been influenced negatively by US plans for missile interception installations in the Czech Republic and Poland, all too close to Russia's borders. Now the Polish foreign minister has said on a visit to Washington that Poland would like to go even further and host a major NATO military installation on Polish soil. He also said, "The prospect of American troops on our soil ... is something that we would welcome."

In my opinion, it's incredible how foolhardy top politicians on all sides can be. I hope we little people never get presented the bill for such foolishness.

by Anthony Williamson on Fri Feb 1st, 2008 at 05:42:21 PM EST
For my part, for a couple of years now I've been extremely thankful that Russia managed to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent.

And even five years ago if anyone had suggested I would ever say that I would have laughed in their face.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 04:55:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]



"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 12:36:13 PM EST
Hahahah! Great poster Poemless! Don't understand Russian one bit but those lil icons speak for themselves. We should put up a diary page featuring each other's (US & Russia) colourful defence arsenals...
by The3rdColumn on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 03:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The title is "How Americans control the territory of Russia." Probably if I woke up and America were almost entirely surrounded by Russian "defense" arsenals, "lil" and "colorful" would not be the first words I'd use to describe them...

BTW, what's with all the submarines on your site?  Where are they from?  

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 03:45:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ex submarine commander, Her Majesty's Submarine Service... one was my first sub the other one was my last.
by The3rdColumn on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 04:04:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Explains a lot...

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 04:10:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good story.

Generally speaking, such a sentiment is pretty common in Russia. But it is generally moderated by the feeling that Russia is too weak to act like America and some caution is needed.

by citatel on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 12:17:28 AM EST
Good input citadel. Would be good if we could have more on said Russian sentiment.
by The3rdColumn on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 10:29:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Display:
Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]