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First crack in the wall

by rdf Fri Jun 6th, 2008 at 10:55:32 AM EST

I've long complained about the lack of any economic models which weren't predicated on capitalist principles.

Even when the government of a country claims to be "communist" or "socialist" the individual enterprises are run along capitalist lines. All that changes is where the source of capital comes from and where the "profits" go.

So it is encouraging to see this first essay by a well-known economist questioning the need for capital formation as a prerequisite for economic growth.


Gambler's Ruin - Brad DeLong


From Adam Smith (1776) until 1950 or so, capital was considered by economists to be absolutely essential for economic growth.
...
For Smith and his successors over the first 175 years, any episode of sustained economic growth overwhelmingly required investment capital. We economists were by and large capital boosters, and our magic formula for economic development was saving, investment, thrift, and wealth accumulation.
...
The problem is that for poor economies, raising the capital needed to relax binding growth constraints is difficult. That's why the world took the neo-liberal bet in the 1990's: international capital mobility would come to the rescue by relaxing capital constraints where they were binding, and by reducing the scope for corruption and rent-seeking, which was often a more significant binding growth constraint.
...
But we all know the outcome: while international capital flows soared, the large net  flow of capital from rich to poor countries simply never materialized. [my emphasis]

Read the whole essay it is short.

The essential point is that now, at last, someone is willing to admit that access to capital is not the "answer".

As I've long maintained capitalism only works when resources are readily available and the externalities of depletion and pollution are ignored. The borrowed money is paid back, with interest, by extracting value from resources which aren't accounted for. The continual existence of resources is also assumed which allows for permanent growth. An impossibility.

Now that the first person has acknowledged that capital is not the key to development how long will it be until the next economist admits that growth has to be replaced by a steady-state social state?

Display:
... field since the 1950's. What makes you imagine this is "at last"?


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Jun 6th, 2008 at 11:40:52 AM EST
That Brad DeLong is a marginalist?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 6th, 2008 at 05:48:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... that much. He's enough of a marginalist to be a "free trade liberal".

I'll have to read some of his work to pin down better than that ... I'll try to have a look on Sunday.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Jun 6th, 2008 at 10:33:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See also  Chris Cook's Diary.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 6th, 2008 at 01:07:32 PM EST
Even when the government of a country claims to be "communist" or "socialist" the individual enterprises are run along capitalist lines. All that changes is where the source of capital comes from and where the "profits" go.

No they aren't. In a planned state owned economy 'companies' are not run on anything like a capitalist basis.  They are allocated a given amount of capital and set certain production targets.  If you're interested in an in depth analysis of how such economies function I'd recommend Janos Kornai's Economics of Shortage and The Socialist System.

You can make the Trotskyist argument that the party-state bureaucracy takes on the role that the bourgeoisie would in a capitalist state, but that's more political economy. For that the best are the original version (Revolution Betrayed) or Jacek Kuron's and Karol Modzelewski's Open Letter to the Party

by MarekNYC on Fri Jun 6th, 2008 at 01:39:37 PM EST
... of which capitalism you mean.

Is any monetary production economy capitalism? If capitalism is the individual capitalist in control of production, as in the late 1800's, then is modern megacorp capitalism, capitalism? If both robber baron capitalism and megacorp capitalism are capitalism, would syndicalist capitalism be capitalism? How much direct production can be provided by state institutions before its not precisely capitalism anymore? Or is it pure capitalism if the production by the state is all complements to private production?

I think that capitalism is probably best understood as a term that is narrower than a monetary production economy in general. However, since all the monetary production economies that we have experience with are capitalist, more or less, it might be harder to envision a monetary production economy that is not organized on capitalist lines, or else one where the capitalist portion of the private economy is just one part among many.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Jun 6th, 2008 at 10:39:40 PM EST
Also, under what definition of "capital" is "access to capital" not a prerequisite for economic activity? It must be a definition under which hand tools are not capital because you need tools for just about anything even in a subsistence economy.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 02:35:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... capital in the standard technical definition in economics, under "money is a veil", is not the financial capital, not the institutions of property and control and managerial transactions directing those employed under money contracts ... its all the productive equipment.

But clearly since productive equipment pre-dated money and all the other distinctive institutions of capitalism, the capital of capitalism is not the "capital" of the traditional economic model, but rather the financial capital that the traditional economic model rationalizes and legitimizes.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 02:53:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is capitalism?

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 03:42:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh
Veil of money describes a problem in economics, which centers on the question of whether money is a commodity like other commodities, such as oil or gold or food - or whether it has special properties.


When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 03:47:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... illustrates a deeper problem in economics, that when economists treat money as "stuff" rather than as a network of social institutions, we end up tying ourselves in knots.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 02:38:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I still like Marx' focus on the means of production and their ownership.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 03:50:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that does not have nor seek growth.  

Since growth is no longer possible, this is a prerequisite of ANY realistic economic model.  

Well, I'm not holding my breath.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 12:26:28 AM EST
... it is relentless growth that is no longer possible. Economics growth from pure technological progress clearly remains possible ... however, pure technological progress can not deliver 10% or 3% or 1% growth year after year after year. Pure technological progress, rather, proceeds in waves.

So I strongly disagree regarding a new economic model that does not have growth as one of its normal states.

Regarding seek growth ... that does, of course, depend on the connotation of "seek". Certainly seeking growth as the present system does, like a heroin or tobacco addict seeking their next fix ... that is incompatible with long term sustainability.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 02:58:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pure technological progress, rather, proceeds in waves.  

and ends (if all goes well) in long plateaus.

So I strongly disagree regarding a new economic model that does not have growth as one of its normal states.  

Okay, you can disagree.  But aside from oscillations about a mean, I am sure that growth cannot be a normal state:  It can be a temporary transient state.  

The technical advances we have seen over the last century and a half have been as much a function of cheap energy as SUVs and McMansions.  Like the latter, they will mostly fall apart fairly quickly when energy becomes expensive.  

The US and Europe are not in the same place in this.  The US has looted out its infrastructure--both physical and mental.  This is literal:  Our bridges are falling down, the educational function of our school systems is being abandoned, and our institutions, private and corporate, are corrupt, and the larger the scale, the worse the corruption is.  Europe is still only in the process of succumbing to Anglo-Disease.  If it can throw off the infection, a much softer landing (to a modest style of living) can be navigated.  

Navigating collapse is totally outside our current models.  Steady state economies can be imagined, but only achieved AFTER collapse has been navigated.  Which is unlikely, and why the most likely scenerio is a sort of free-fall:  Whatever happens will happen with little mitigation.  It is like a drug addict's final binge.  

That does not mean I advocate doing nothing.  I am looking for things that are robust--that that will hold up against a great deal of mischief.  There is no theory for this, though I do suspect those who recommend imitating the natural world closely have the right idea.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 03:56:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pure technological progress, rather, proceeds in waves.  
and ends (if all goes well) in long plateaus.
In other words, technological evolution is a punctuated equilibrium process. Stuart Kauffman describes a sensible model of it in the last chapter of At Home in the Universe.
So I strongly disagree regarding a new economic model that does not have growth as one of its normal states.

Okay, you can disagree.  But aside from oscillations about a mean, I am sure that growth cannot be a normal state:  It can be a temporary transient state.

The problem is that, when growth takes place over several generations, it produces a cultural change.

My own pet theory is that after the collapse of the 14th century, Europe experienced a century of sustained growth. Also, because the crisis of the 14th century was so devastating it made cultural norms vulnerable to questioning and substitution and in particular the moral reservations about usury were replaced with tolerance for charging interest which is a key part of modern financial capitalism. Growth makes compound interest possible, but after 100-150 years people reverse the causal chain in their heads and come to think that interest is what makes growth possible.

What we have here is an example of cultural and economic adaptive radiation following an extinction event  (to use a biological metaphor).

I have developed these themes before in comment threads here, here and here.

The technical advances we have seen over the last century and a half have been as much a function of cheap energy as SUVs and McMansions.  Like the latter, they will mostly fall apart fairly quickly when energy becomes expensive.
In many cases that is a reversal of causation, as what cheap energy made possible is the spread of the technology, not its development. We had metallurgy, chemistry, and even electrical engineering before we had plentiful oil.
Navigating collapse is totally outside our current models.  Steady state economies can be imagined, but only achieved AFTER collapse has been navigated.  Which is unlikely, and why the most likely scenerio is a sort of free-fall:  Whatever happens will happen with little mitigation.  It is like a drug addict's final binge.
If you can imagine you can chart a course to get there with minimal pain. The problem is ultimately political, not one of "models".


When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 04:23:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interest and international trade started in the 1200's (the fairs of Champagne) with the trade between the Netherlands and Italy, actually...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 06:59:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the new model existed before, but it could only take over because of the opening provided by the collapse. Just like rodents coexisted with dinosaurs for millions of years but only took over 65Myr ago.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:11:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I'm not sure "growth" as a concept was part of many people's understanding of the world during the 16th century. People noticed the peasants were becoming numerous, but that's about all. I think the rise of capitalism, the development of interest, and the capital accumulation, happened because of the rise of overseas trade, an activity that had always been financed by interest on capital.

I'll have to reread Braudel...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:31:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, "growth results from interest" is what people in the 18th and 19th century conceptualised looking back on the previous few hundred years. As opposed to "growth is required to make interest sustainable".

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:33:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From where we stand, we neither know which direction our destination lies nor what our destination looks like.

So rather than course charting, what we can do is to plant seeds of new systems that offer the prospect of being compatible with sustainability ... those that took root and became part of a sustainable system were the right seed, but the information required to select with any precision will only be created in the course of events, and so is not available to us now.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:04:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So then you
So rather than course charting, what we can do is to plant seeds of new systems that offer the prospect of being compatible with sustainability ... those that took root and became part of a sustainable system were the right seed, but the information required to select with any precision will only be created in the course of events, and so is not available to us now.
agree with Gaianne's conclusion
That does not mean I advocate doing nothing.  I am looking for things that are robust--that that will hold up against a great deal of mischief.  There is no theory for this, though I do suspect those who recommend imitating the natural world closely have the right idea.  
even if you disagree with her analysis...

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:07:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think we can know what will prove to be robust and what will not ... but the strategy of seeding as great a variety as we can as widely as we can is itself a robust strategy.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 02:23:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]


The Fates are kind.
by Gaianne on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 04:48:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... waves. Its not a mechanical process with equilibrium at the end, its an exploration of a newly opened terrain in the space of technological possibilities.

The technical advances we have seen over the last century and a half have been as much a function of cheap energy as SUVs and McMansions.

This process antedates the fossil fuel are by a wide margin ... obviously when cheap fossil fuel energy was available, that was a technological space that was going to be explored sooner or later, but I don't see the anchoring in reality for the notion that fossil fuels were a requirement for technological progress, rather than the channel that technological progress has been taking most recently.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 06:57:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think it's more that economic growth has been channelled into following a technological path since the Enlightenment.

Before that growth was defined by physical empire building and slavery.

When most of the world had been claimed and fossil power came to be cheaper and less trouble than slave power, growth switched towards better tools, and a culture of tool building.

However you slice it, our current beliefs about technology are underwritten by access to cheap energy. Without that, not only does the technology stop working, but new technologies stop being developed.

Moving to a steady state culture doesn't just mean a change in practice, it means a change in metaphor. Expansion seems to be built into culture - it's not just a Western ideal, it happens everywhere the environment doesn't already offer an easy overabundance of food.

So youy can't take existing Western culture and make it sustainable without some serious cultural dislocations of expectation and morality - to the extent where it's unlikely to look like anything we're familiar with now.

It's not just about persuading people to grow their own food and stop using oil, it's about persuading them to change their minds about what's possible, what kinds of behaviour are acceptable and what kinds of stories they should be telling themselves about themselves and the world.

This won't be as easy as it sounds.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:55:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However, there are arguments that technological progress has been proceeding at an exponential rate for the last five millenia, at least, which puts into question the Eurocentric approach of dating "growth base on technological progress" to the point when technological progress at the semi-periphery shifted to focus on Europe.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 02:26:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Okay, you can disagree.  But aside from oscillations about a mean, I am sure that growth cannot be a normal state:  It can be a temporary transient state.

Pure technological growth is a temporary, transient, perennially reproduced state. That's why it proceeds in waves.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:00:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Moreover, technological change changes the complexity of the system, so "oscillations around a mean" only make sense between one technological innovation and the next.

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:04:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... and, extending that (I had to hop onto the bike to go off to teach class), oscillations around a mean presume that there is a structural dynamic creating a central tendency with a fluctuation around that. If what is creating the movement is what is identified above as fluctuations around the mean, then the mean is an epiphenomena of the wave, rather than the wave being oscillations around the mean.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 02:28:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The technical advances we have seen over the last century and a half have been as much a function of cheap energy as SUVs and McMansions.

Penicillin? Vaccination? X-rays?

What's the syntax for the [Crystal Ball of Doom] macro again?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 11:33:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
((*doom Gaianne))

When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. — John M. Keynes
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 11:58:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The intellectual system that maintains knowledge of things like vaccination does not exist simply in books;  it requires a great deal of support.  Cheap energy underwrites that support.  

For each realm of knowledge or each technology, you can ask what must be maintained in order for it to function.    Practical things:  Glass making, wire making, an educational system that trains people in these things and teaches the public at large what they are about.  

Do not underestimate the role of corruption in poisoning the function of large institutions that we have been depending on and counting on to maintain these things.  When pharmaceutical companies are happy selling poisons as effective drugs, the whole concept of modern pharmacology is put at risk.  The malignancy of genetic engineering has long term implications for molecular biology.  

I don't mean (nor think) that everything will go.  But a lot will.  High maintenance knowledge is an endangered species.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 04:44:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
European Tribune - First crack in the wall

As I've long maintained capitalism only works when resources are readily available and the externalities of depletion and pollution are ignored. The borrowed money is paid back, with interest, by extracting value from resources which aren't accounted for. The continual existence of resources is also assumed which allows for permanent growth. An impossibility.

Now that the first person has acknowledged that capital is not the key to development how long will it be until the next economist admits that growth has to be replaced by a steady-state social state?

"Capital" and "Credit" have unfortunately become conflated because our Money is Credit (created by Banks).

The monetisation of Debt/ credit began to take on its modern form in 1718, courtesy of John Law's Banque Royale, and the result then was the Mississippi Bubble.

As I said in my Peak Credit Diary, I think that the monetisation of Bank credit reached the end of the road last year, and that it is now downhill all the way - for the US and UK anyway.

I believe that we need instead - through a "Debt/Equity swap" on a massive scale (albeit with a non-toxic form of "Equity") to monetise the output of productive Capital generally, and land and renewable energy in particular.

I think that this is in fact achievable through using new legal tools to create "asset-based", rather than "deficit-based" financing.

In my view, "Capital" consists of "Property" (rights of ownership and use)in respect of productive assets and this is now in massive oversupply, albeit concentrated in increasingly few hands - which is where taxation applied to Capital - not income - could help redress the balance.

The "market (clearing) price" or "Cost" of productive capital has come down from maybe 25% in Babylonian times (when it was almost entirely Land), through 10% pa in Medieval times, to 5% pa prior to the Industrial Revolution, and is probably now between 0.5% and 1.5% pa.

The cost of Credit (aka "Time to Pay") is a different issue, and comprises a system cost, shared costs of defaults, and the credit intermediary's profit (if there is a credit intermediary).

Neither the cost of Capital nor the cost of Credit has anything whatever to do with the arbitrary interest rates set by Central Banks, which were always unnecessary intermediaries and are even more otiose in the evolving "Peer to Peer" era of the Internet.

Unfortunately, Investors' expectations in relation to what constitutes a reasonable return have been distorted by inflation, which is caused by a combination of deficit financing (both by government cf Zimbabwe and banks) and the profit motive (aka Greed).

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 7th, 2008 at 07:25:11 PM EST

As I've long maintained capitalism only works when resources are readily available and the externalities of depletion and pollution are ignored. The borrowed money is paid back, with interest, by extracting value from resources which aren't accounted for. The continual existence of resources is also assumed which allows for permanent growth. An impossibility.

This was certainly Polanyi's position regarding 19th century USA.  He noted that economics was the art of allocating various scarce resources amongst various competing ends and then noted that economics did not really apply to 19th USA, as there was "free" land in the form of available homesteads, "free" labor in the form of large numbers of immigrants willing to work for bare subsistence and "free" money in the form of gold and silver that could be dug from the ground.

All of these points can be argued, but there is a certain truth to his argument.  It would also support a contention that the discipline of economics is more PR than science, certainly as practiced in its Neo-Classical incarnations.  When everything that is essentially free for the taking has been grabbed, then those who have grabbed the most need rationales for taking things away from those who have grabbed less.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 8th, 2008 at 01:25:47 AM EST


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