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Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates)

by Drew J Jones Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:54:05 PM EST

Figured I'd toss this up on ATinNM's recommendation.

More from one of Nico Pitney's contacts:

Just got home...haven't read you're blog yet but if there's a lot of stories about violence I'm sure they're all true. I don't know where to start, I'd taken my camera but had the sence to take out the memory card this came in hany as I was serched twice (by Basij) before getting stuck in the middle of hell. If I'd been caught with pictures it would mean jail time and a possible a charge of spying (as I'm a Canadian citizen). Eventually I dropped of the camera at the house of a friend without being able to take any pictures as it would make me a definate target...The chants of death to Khamenei are true...I witnessed peoples fear of the Basij dissapear, an 80 year old chadori woman with rocks in her hands calling for the exacution of khamenei and all Basij...A group of Basij were surrounded and forced in to a building, the front was blocked with garbage and set on fire, They (basij) opened fire on the crowd with what I assume were blanks, the crowed disspersed for a moment the came back with a fury...thats when the molotov cocktails came out. When I moved on the building was on fire...an hour later when I passed by again there wasn't much of a building left. There was full blown war...there was a young man who had taken all of a basij's things including their teargas rifle. We were finnaly able to get out on the back of motorcycle...the ride home took 25 minutes,for 15 minutes of it we were passing intermitently though Basij and protesters fires placed to displace the teargas... might I add the 3 hours that we walked through fire we didn't see one shop or car that had been damaged by protesters...however I just recieved word for the one who was kind enough to keep my camera and other belongings that the Basij had gone into her street and destoryed cars...thats all I can get out for now hope some of it may be useful...I'm pissed I was unable to get pictures.

Per a source for Tehran Bureau, the protesters may be planning a march from all around the city to Central Tehran for later tonight.

30-40 reported dead in the hospital. (UPDATE: just one hospital on that, Fatemiyeh Hospital.) Fighting on the West Side seems to be moving Northeast onto Sattar Khan Street.

New Photos

The mobile network is being cut off all over Tehran, according to a good source (Omid007) on Twitter. It had been suggested the government turned it back on to spread misinformation. They may be throwing it off because of all the reports getting out.

Via Lara Setrakian at ABC News:

e-source on rooftops: "People are very angry…they are screaming like a banshee…this ain't alaho akbar anymore" #iranelection

This video has been making the rounds over the last 24 hours:

Reports of fighting in Haft (far WNW Tehran, near Tehran West Airport) Haft Hoz Square, NE of Central Tehran.

Nightly chants of Allah o Akbar and Death to Dictator have begun. Reportedly most intense yet.

Facebook video: Police attacking women at the University of Shiraz.

MASOLEUM BOMBING UPDATE: State TV shows damage from bombing was nothing but a broken window, according to a viewer in Dubai. No real damage.

1.12 pm. confirmed - Riots in Tabriz, Mashad, Isfahan, Ahwaz - Gov using violence

Via Sully, a Twitterer: "1.05 pm. Mousavi - confirmed - IF I AM ARRESTED THE NATION IS TO STRIKE INDEFINITELY"

State TV ramping up propaganda:

This morning a friend of NIAC who gets Iranian Satellite TV here said that state-run media showed President Obama speaking about Iran this morning. However, instead of translating what he actually said, the translator reportedly quoted Obama as saying he “supports the protesters against the government and they should keep protesting." Assuming this report is correct, it shows the Iranian government is eager to portray Obama as a partisan supporting the demonstrators

Obama, of course, said no such thing.

New YouTube, apparently of the Basij fleeing (I haven't watched it yet):

Word, for now, is police and military are standing down.

Moussavi has said he is ready for death.

Assembly of Experts reportedly calls a meeting with Rafsanjani.

Twitterers, via Sully, say they're concerned for Montazeri's safety.

Difficult to get a beat on what's happening with the Basiji, but the reports I've seen seem to suggest the Greens have pushed them back in West Tehran.

European embassies open to injured as hospitals are allegedly being used as traps by Basiji.

(ed's note: earlier discussions here in the Open Thread, and this morning's news in the Salon here and here. See also the diary by danps, Voices From Iran)

Display:
Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) | 178 comments (177 topical, 1 editorial, 0 hidden)
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Twitter:

Beomoose: RT frm Iran: War going on in South Kargar st, Tohid Sq, Arya Shahr... in Tohid Sq people have captured & blown up a police truck

Violence is escalating fast.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 12:53:38 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 1)
Good sources: Andrew Sullivan, Nico Pitney, and the Tehran Bureau Twitter feed.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 12:55:17 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Unconfirmed report:

I just witnessed a program on official state television depicting young Iranians with there faces blurred 'testifying' to visiting the U.S. and being trained and told by the americans to cause unrest and chaos in Iran."

The regime is still playing "The American Card."

Thank the FSM Obama is the US president and playing it cool.  By now Bush would have given the regime enough to undercut widespread support for the Greens.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 12:57:54 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
More:

This morning a friend of NIAC who gets Iranian Satellite TV here said that state-run media showed President Obama speaking about Iran this morning. However, instead of translating what he actually said, the translator reportedly quoted Obama as saying he "supports the protesters against the government and they should keep protesting." Assuming this report is correct, it shows the Iranian government is eager to portray Obama as a partisan supporting the demonstrators.


Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:00:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 1)
That was incredibly stupid.  Too many people in Iran know enough English and have enough Web skills to know what he did say.  This will undercut the perceived and received accuracy of the State media by the Greens.

The regime is floundering around.  I suspect they never, ever, thought they would get this much push-back over stealing the election.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:07:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 3)
Hey it worked for Bush.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:10:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 4)
Fortunately, Iranians seem more than a tad sharper than Americans were back then.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:13:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Too many people in Iran know enough English and have enough Web skills to know what he did say.

You are certain? Why?

(setting aside Twitter technical limitations, state ICT controls, and fluency)

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 1)
The evidence of my eyes?  :-)

As to web skills: the regime has been cracking down on internet and telecommunications generally since this thing began and they haven't succeeded in isolating Iran from the global information net.

Second, too many people have the English skills simply due to the fact English is the default global scientific, technical, and business language.  Anyone wishing to communicate globally uses English; it's "every bodies" preferred second language.  BTW, that's why American and British language skills are for garbage: we don't need to learn the global language; we own it from birth.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:03:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 3)
Transcript | CBS | 19 June 2009
(CBS)  CBS News Harry Smith sat down with President Barack Obama in an exclusive interview. This is a partial transcript of the President's remarks on Iran. More of the interview will air Monday morning [22 June 2009] on the CBS Early Show.

Q: Let's move on to news of the day. The Ayatollah Khamenei gave his - speech today and gave his sermon. He said that the election in Iran was, in fact, legitimate. He said, quote/unquote, "the street - street demonstrations are unacceptable." Do you have a message for those people in the street?

A: I absolutely do. Well, first of all, let's understand that this notion that somehow these hundreds of thousands of people who are pouring into the streets in Iran are somehow responding to the West or the United States. that's an old distraction that I think has been trotted out periodically. And that's just not gonna fly.

What you're seeing in Iran are hundreds of thousands of people who believe their voices were not heard and who are peacefully protesting and - and seeking justice. And the world is watching. And we stand behind those who are seeking justice in a peaceful way. And, you know, already we've seen violence out there. I think I've said this throughout the week. I want to repeat it that we stand with those who would look to peaceful resolution of conflict, and we believe that the voices of people have to be heard, that that's a universal value that the American people stand for and this administration stands for.

And I'm very concerned based on some of the tenor and tone of the statements that have been made that the government of Iran recognize that the world is watching. And how they approach and deal with people who are, through peaceful means, trying to be heard will, I think, send a pretty clear signal to the international community about what Iran is - and is not.

But the last point I want to make on this - this is not an issue of the United States or the West versus Iran. This is an issue of the Iranian people. The fact that they are on the streets under pretty severe duress, at great risk to themselves, is a sign that there's something in that society that wants to open up.

And, you know, we respect Iran's sovereignty. And we respect the fact that ultimately the Iranian people have to make these decisions. But I hope that the world understands that this is not something that has to do with the outside world. This has to do with what's happening in Iran. And, I think ultimately the Iranian people, will obtain justice.

Q: People in this country say you haven't said enough, that you haven't been forceful enough in your support for those people in the street, and which you say?

A: To which I say the last thing that I want to do is to have the United States be a foil for those forces inside Iran who would love nothing better than to make this an argument about the United States. That's what they do. That's what we've already seen. We shouldn't be playing into that. There should be no distractions from the fact that the Iranian people are seeking to let their voices be heard.

Now, what we can do is bear witness and say to the world that the, you know, incredible demonstrations that we've seen is a testimony to, I think what Dr. King called the the arc of the moral universe. It's long but it bends towards justice.

##

Yeah, that arc is real long.

Tool.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:56:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
links (4.00 / 2)
I've added links to the open thread and salon to the diary, and a link to the diary in the OT on the FP.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:00:05 PM EST
Re: links (none / 0)
Thanks.  I was having trouble getting the links to work properly.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:01:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Twitter:

kyrah: Riots in Tabriz, Mashad, Isfahan, Ahwaz - government using violence [confirmed]

Most of the information I'm seeing is based out of Tehran.  But there are continual reports of widespread shooting, rioting, and protests in all the major cities.

Apparently the basij are behind most of it with some support from the Revolutionary Guard.  (?)  

There are continual reports the military is refusing to get involved in the repression and the police are not reliable, i.e., some are going against the regime.  There are also unconfirmed reports some police have 'turned' and joined the protests.
 

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:03:49 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Shariz, too, which is way out in SW Iran.

Tabriz is up in NE Iran, near Armenia, if I'm not mistaken.

So much for that "It's just the rich kids in Tehran" bullshit.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:06:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Sorry, that's Shiraz, not Shariz.  Down near the Persian Gulf.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:08:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 1)
Once Persepolis...

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Starting to get reports outside of Tehran:

Lady_Hawke41: RT @ChrisTwitery: RT from Iran: Demonstrators Pushing back security forces in Shiraz with stones and batons. Massive fires.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:22:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 1)
Rioting seems confirmed in all the major cities.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:23:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"rich kids in tehran" (4.00 / 3)
note that tehran is rather rigidly segregated - to simplify: the further up north (which is also up in a geographic sense, as it is on the slope of a big mountain), the richer the neighborhood (and, thanks to the altitude, the nicer the climate).

So it does matter if things are happening in the North or the South of Tehran.

The embassies are in the North.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:34:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: "rich kids in tehran" (none / 1)
Yes, but my point is that the news is largely coming from South and West Tehran, not North.  The only stuff from the North is coming from the University and a few neighborhoods just a bit up from Central Tehran, and those are very scattered.

And with cities all over the country, from the border with northern Iraq down to the Persian Gulf, seeing uprisings, it seems a little silly for the talking heads to try to treat this as a group on rich kids in North Tehran.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
a map (4.00 / 4)


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:31:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Re: Unreliable military

sioushie: RT from Iran: friend arrested at check point. Thrown into a truck, beaten, but a Sebah soldier secretly let the arrested go

Sebah = Revolutionary Guard

The RG are supposed to be loyal supporters of Ahmadinejad and - I hope Chris will correct me here as needed - one of the main players in the coup-by-fake-election.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:26:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Protesters using Twitter to broadcast tactical information:

Hawkeye0071: RT @judyrey RT Conf'd Iran: "Over 100 Basijs w/ batons between Mirdamad & Vanak, maybe another 50 around Vanak"

that's both amazing and potentially VERY bad news for the regime.  One of the worst mistakes they can make is dispersing their supporters out where they can be chopped-up in small detachments.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:16:22 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
depends how wide those streets are and how well trained the basji are. 50 could easily be enough to hold a street, unless completely overwhelmed with numbers

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:18:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
I don't know Tehran so I don't know the strategic or tactical importance - if any - of those areas.

50 are enough to block or channel small groups of people but the basij are isolated or semi-isolated from reinforcement.  Meaning they can be overwhelmed anytime enough people decide to do it.

What this says to me is their command structure still hasn't gasped the situation.  The regime isn't going all-out to repress the protests but is using enough force to drive the situation in an increasing cycle of violence.  Further, the use of violence by the regime seems to be destroying the last shreds of popular - in the cities, anyway - support and popular legitimacy.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 2)
From the little I´ve read (and I might be totally wrong) the majority of Basiji militia aren´t that well trained. Military / police training seemed to be less important than religious "training" to ensure their loyalty.
Their main weapon in the past seemed to be intimidation.

An organized group (with some leadership) and knowledge of the location probably could easily infiltrate around them and attack them from all sides. Not even needing overwhelming numbers.
The only thing going for them right now seems to be that the protesters are more or less leaderless.

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:12:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 1)
isn't that the nature of protest, the lack of leadership.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:39:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Reports that a street in Gisha, near the University, has been set afire.

Now reports the same moving into Rasht.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:17:29 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 1)
To this point the most aggressive actions by protestors seem to be knocking over Basji motorcycles and setting them afire combined with Molotov cocktails thrown at (presumedly Basji) buildings.  Mostly the confrontation seems to be protesters sacrificing their bodies, if not their lives.  It would only take a small escalation for protesters to start carrying 1.5m x 2-3cm staffs, which would make Basji motorcycles in close quarters totally unviable.

A big indicator would also be confirmed reports of protesters, police and/or Revolutionary Guards using weapons against Basji in defense of protesters.  It is starting to look like the events leading up to the storming of the Bastille.  It is unclear if the current fire will have to burn itself out or if calmer heads can prevail.  Revolutions acquire a dynamic of their own which then seems to drive events by their own internal logic or dialectic.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:21:18 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 2)
Plus, people throwing and setting fire to stuff.

If there's a pushback on this scale, and the military are standing by and not supporting the nominal leadership, I don't see how the nominal leadership can stay in control.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:29:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
The regime still can always turn to the Revolutionary Guards who possess modern military equipment.  I haven't seen any reports they have been deployed to the streets.  I don't know if they are trained in crowd control, but I doubt it.  Sending them is would be a big, big step and really escalate the situation.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:45:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 1)
If reports of splits in the Revolutionary Guards, with one faction being associated with Rafsanjani, are correct, the regime may be afraid to ask for their support.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 4)
Sending the military to repress the crowd was the final mistake of the Shah.  It fractured his armed support: some repressed, some sided with the protesters, some just went home.  Same thing happened with the Mensheviks in the Russian Revolution.

IF the regime is unable to rely on their armed organizations they're dog meat.  If I understand correctly, the election was as much a take-over by one faction of the Ruling Class against the other factions.  Thus, support for the Greens can be found within the regime itself.  Assuming the previous has some contact with reality, Ahmadinejad, et.al., are having to spend time dealing with that as well as the street protests.  With the upper leadership in disarray/fighting amongst themselves it implies the lower ranks of the hierarchy are on their own, to a certain extent with counter-measures up to local/regional commanders.  

If any of the above reflects reality -- and I make NO claim to knowing it does -- it goes a long way to explaining why the repression has been so limited, given the total force capable, in theory, of being deployed to the streets.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 3)
ATinNM:
If I understand correctly, the election was as much a take-over by one faction of the Ruling Class against the other factions.

That's my understanding.

The "coup" was not about ideology or dogma: it was about business, and it's not something that many of the protagonists are prepared to die for now that it's going pear-shaped.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:40:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 3)
HOLD THE LIVE BLOG!!!!!!!

Somebody who knows what he is talking about is here!

:-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 3)
ATinNM
If any of the above reflects reality -- and I make NO claim to knowing it does -- it goes a long way to explaining why the repression has been so limited, given the total force capable, in theory, of being deployed to the streets.

Exactly!  All of the major players among the protest faction are major players and participants in Iranian politics since the fall of the Shah.  It is bad enough when you loose most of the educated and most of the business class, but when the division splits your own government you are pretty hapless.  Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of sons of bitches.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:58:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 3)
I'm irresistibly reminded of Churchill's comment re observing politics in Soviet Russia...

"...like watching dogs fight under a carpet...."

..an Iranian carpet being particularly apt...

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
as it did in Greece?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
To be fair, the Greece protests appeared to be on a much smaller scale, with a much lower level of greivance.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:27:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
hmmm. To what "scale" do you refer? Surely not one man, one riot.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:30:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Well assuming we're talking about the same Greek riots, Id say much narrower segments of society involved, much lower number of protestors.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:36:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Would you care to compare numbers estimates of protest days, protestors, protestor casualties, capital losses, and police demographics reported by bloggers?

Starting here, ending with some generalizable patterns glossed by search results (landline and mobile). Which reminds me.

A few weeks ago someone sent a request to "follow me." Apart from two entries in response to another person who I knew personally and had asked me to sign on (March), I do not participate. The request came frome a stranger who "follows" nearly 200 UIDs.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:55:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Well all the numbers are extremely untrustworthy, even on the view back to the past with the Greek riots. CNN is reporting 150 deaths in the past week, who knows where the truth actually lies.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:44:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 2)
"Truth" is agreement. So you tell me: Why anyone would agree "'the translator reportedly quoted Obama as saying he "supports the protesters against the government and they should keep protesting'" is pernicious, or false ("Obama, of course, said no such thing.")? Didn't he?


Click to enlarge.		Q: Let's move on to news of the day. The Ayatollah Khamenei gave his - speech today and gave his sermon. He said that the election in Iran was, in fact, legitimate. He said, quote/unquote, "the street - street demonstrations are unacceptable." Do you have a message for those people in the street?

A: I absolutely do. Well, first of all, let's understand that this notion that somehow these hundreds of thousands of people who are pouring into the streets in Iran are somehow responding to the West or the United States. that's an old distraction that I think has been trotted out periodically. And that's just not gonna fly.

What you're seeing in Iran are hundreds of thousands of people who believe their voices were not heard and who are peacefully protesting and - and seeking justice. And the world is watching. And we stand behind those who are seeking justice in a peaceful way. And, you know, already we've seen violence out there. I think I've said this throughout the week. I want to repeat it that we stand with those who would look to peaceful resolution of conflict, and we believe that the voices of people have to be heard, that that's a universal value that the American people stand for and this administration stands for.

And I'm very concerned based on some of the tenor and tone of the statements that have been made that the government of Iran recognize that the world is watching. And how they approach and deal with people who are, through peaceful means, trying to be heard will, I think, send a pretty clear signal to the international community about what Iran is - and is not.

But the last point I want to make on this - this is not an issue of the United States or the West versus Iran. This is an issue of the Iranian people. The fact that they are on the streets under pretty severe duress, at great risk to themselves, is a sign that there's something in that society that wants to open up.

And, you know, we respect Iran's sovereignty. And we respect the fact that ultimately the Iranian people have to make these decisions. But I hope that the world understands that this is not something that has to do with the outside world. This has to do with what's happening in Iran. And, I think ultimately the Iranian people, will obtain justice.

Q: People in this country say you haven't said enough, that you haven't been forceful enough in your support for those people in the street, and which you say?

A: To which I say the last thing that I want to do is to have the United States be a foil for those forces inside Iran who would love nothing better than to make this an argument about the United States. That's what they do. That's what we've already seen. We shouldn't be playing into that. There should be no distractions from the fact that the Iranian people are seeking to let their voices be heard.

Now, what we can do is bear witness and say to the world that the, you know, incredible demonstrations that we've seen is a testimony to, I think what Dr. King called the the arc of the moral universe. It's long but it bends towards justice.

As if these examples were the only versions of propaganda propagated by either US or IR regimes by ICT actors. AS IF the US state department had not boasted about its IT synergies. AS IF "[T]his is not an issue of the United States or the West versus Iran" after 6+ years of economic sanctions and confiscations, US funded paramilitary operations into Iran, US funded emigration. AS IF Westworld --even the CCP-- had never and would never deploy inland militia, tear gas, water canons, batons, rubber and live ammo, FIRE BOMBS, dogs and provocateurs to pacify "protestors" against the state.

puleeze, tell "buffyc" to put her fuckin' iphone down and tend my yard. Not hers.

The only people who benefit from "regime change" and so-called martyrdom in Iran are the people holding the oil securities.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 07:01:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 1)
Well, the chances of Buffyc being inside Iran are vanishingly small, It wouldn't surprise me  if a good proportion of earlymessages were the product of outside actors, a few messages put into the phone or IT systems at the right time could be quite effective at swinging any political event in the way that would be favourable to large scale actors.

AS IF Westworld --even the CCP-- had never and would never deploy inland militia, tear gas, water canons, batons, rubber and live ammo, FIRE BOMBS, dogs and provocateurs to pacify "protestors" against the state

I'm sure moxt of us can think of plwnty of examples of most of these either being used, threatend to be used, or prepared and hidden in case of need if not actually been used. I can't think of a particular action where the forces of Law and OrderTM have decided to use FIRE BOMBS against protestors

as for the only people who benefit from regieme change and so-called Martyrdom in Iran being people holding Oil securities, that depends who ends up in charge after regieme change, your oil securities could end up worth as much as toilet paper.

The two Obama quotes you put out are both from a point chronologically much later then the  Iranian TV broadcast which the original statement perportedly comes from.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 10:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
I can't think of a particular action where the forces of Law and OrderTM have decided to use FIRE BOMBS against protestors

If you lived in the US, you'd be thinking of Philadelphia and Waco, at least.

Oil securities, that depends who ends up in charge after regieme change, your oil securities could end up worth as much as toilet paper.

Toilet paper? That remark is just trifling, ceebs. Why you wanna play the history of commodities trading like that?

The two Obama quotes you put out are both from a point chronologically much later then the  Iranian TV broadcast which the original statement perportedly comes from.

"much later," mmm, no.

CBS Evening News broadcasts at 7pm EST, daily. See CBS transcript (right) of a recorded interview with Obama, televised 19 June 2009 at 7pm.

07:00:00 p.m. Friday June 19, 2009 in America/New_York  converts to
03:30:00 a.m. Saturday June 20, 2009 in Asia/Tehran
(Time Zone Converter)

The White House HTML issue (left) that you identified is dated 20 June 2009.

Now the absurd question before us is to which statement the anonymous Iranian translator refers. Are you willing to argue an "Iranian Satellite TV" broadcast of President Obama speaking about Iran "this morning" (3:30 a.m., 20 June 2009) was not a copy of the CBS Evening News interview?

And have you ever met a M-16 "media analyst"? I have. In NYC. So I'm betting the Iranian Satellite TV broadcast was lifted straight up from Time-Warner cable. Or Comcast. Or Cox ...

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 09:10:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Well I wouldn't really call Waco a political protest (and many of the reports of fire bombs do seem to come from right wirng conspiracy sites)

You have to admit that it would be one of the first priorities for outside companies after any change in government through overthrow would be to make sure that all the outstanding oil contracts remain valid.  It could be that the new govrnment might declare that some were gained illegally through bribery of government officials, and hence annul them.

The whie house speach at 3:30 am Tehran would put it at 7:am GMT which is an hour after Drew posted it as being reported 'earlier this morning' so yes I am suggesting that this was not that broadcast, although with the difference in time zones it may be there is a degree of confusion.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 10:01:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
"Confusion" has nothing to do with Drew, EST or GMT. Drew opened the "live blog" at ~5:30am 20 June EST, ~3pm TEHRAN time. Morning there had long past. Explaining the dated assessment of the broadcast by Drew's unknown source and, it appears, ignorance of the 19 June interview.

Iranian TV re-broadcast the 19 June 7PM EST CBS interview for Iranian audiences must have been 3:30am - noon TEHRAN, 20 June. Perhaps he'll link to C-SPAN or YouTube dub of alternative material to clear up the "confusion." The only televised Obama event 19 June EST re: Iran: Perhaps we'll get a link to YouTube dub of alternative broadcasters to clear up the "confusion." But it is content of these remarks --not HTML White House PR-- which Mousavi supporters are repeating four days later to substantiate their civil rights credentials.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Jun 24th, 2009 at 06:08:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (4.00 / 3)
The Greece riots were primarily - exclusively? - urban youth and university students to boot sparked by the police gunning down a college student for no good reason.

They reflect the 2003 Iranian protests better than those happening as we speak.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:11:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
This 2003 Iran protest?

North American media help Iran protests grow | SF Gate | 20 June 2003

Some experts call it a "media movement" or a "satellite revolution." But whatever the label, one thing is clear: A growing network of Iranian American media outlets -- from television to radio to Web sites -- is helping spark the student-led protests erupting in that Islamic nation.

The demonstrations would have occurred anyway, the experts say, but satellite networks like National Iranian Television and Radio Iran (both based in Los Angeles) are beaming programming that actively supports the demonstrators' cause into the country.

Web sites in the United States and Canada are also providing an important outlet for Iran's disaffected youth and dissident voices, many of whom are demanding that Tehran's clerical rulers step down or at least relax the social restrictions that have been imposed on Iranians for 20 years.

Through this media phalanx, the Iranian American community now has the collective power to influence what goes on in Iran -- a historical shift that alarms the Shiite mullahs who have ruled the country since 1979, said Abbas Milani, a visiting fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution. ...

Chalabi(s) 3.0

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:15:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Word of caution:

buffyc: RT Iran: MANY ppl have died tonight, NO ONE, absolutely NO ONE can give the right number bcuz they take the corpses away


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:26:18 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (none / 0)
Streets being blocked by people (not clear which side) in Tehran Pars, in the far NE suburbs.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:28:47 PM EST
Basiji Murders Young Girl (none / 0)
Pretty horrifying video.  Fair warning: VERY graphic...



Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 01:40:53 PM EST
Re: Basiji Murders Young Girl (none / 0)
Multiple confirmed reports the basij are taking people out of hospitals to who-knows-where ... prison, probably.

To counter that, there are reports doctors and nurses are now using ad-hoc emergency areas within the mass of the protesters to treat people.  

Rhetoric on Twitter is heating up.  Starting to read more and more reports of basiji attacking protesters and bystanders.  Starting to read more calls for retribution on the basiji.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:00:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Basiji Murders Young Girl (none / 1)
Another indication that the basiji aren´t that well trained (or led).

Attacking bystanders in the current situation seems like a sure way to produce more "enemies". Even people uninvolved till now would get furious if they hear about family members beaten up or killed.

by Detlef (Detlef1961_at_yahoo_dot_de) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
uh-oh ...

madrinapr: RT from Iran: "Basij Millita attacking people at Haft Hooz Sq, Heavy Clashes Just Started"

"Heavy Clashes" implies the basij are encountering more and more resistance from the Greens, in an ever-increasing cycle of violence.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:07:23 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
I couldn't find Haft Hooz Square on the maps.  I assumed it was up in Haft.  Anybody know?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:09:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Could it be Haft Hoz Sq. Tehran
Haft Hoz Sq.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:11:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Aha.  Thanks.  A little NE of Central Tehran.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:16:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Justiceiran: Reports flooding in massive rebellion in Mashad, city alive with screams of Allah Akbar. Mullahs hand in hand with ppl.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:18:10 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Now this:

Kazam: Bazariis (merchants) will most likely strike des pite strikes.

Seeing the glimmers of the alliance that overthrew the Shah developing: bazariis, mullahs, and the general populace in an environment of popular uprising.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:22:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
bonyfingers: Rt fm Iran Mousavi calls for a general strike, and the bazariis will most likely participate


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:04:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Seeing similar reports.  Big rebellion in Mashhad.  Uprising is spreading rapidly.  Mashhad is way out near Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.

Also seeing reports that the militia are losing ground in Gisha, about halfway between the University and Central.

On another note, is the site slowing down for y'all?  Wondering if we got linked somewhere and are getting hit with traffic.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:24:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
My connect speed is so slow I can't tell.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:32:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Think it may have been my connection.  Things are moving fine now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:33:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
First time I've seen this [emphasis added]:

ALAHOOAKBAR: Protesters keep resisting ,pasdaran & Basiji forces have refused to obey orders,Govt. will collapse soon if protest continues


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:26:47 PM EST
From the Open Thread (none / 0)
ChrisCook:
Someone I am working with said that two of his sisters - one is a university lecturer - and most of the people he knows there are out on the street. Of his family of maybe 200 in Tehran, only one is an Ahmadinejad supporter.

These are middle class people who have been badly hit by the 75% or so inflation rate (as opposed to the official rate). They are the people in the marzipan layer who actually run Iran.

The participation of women is widespread, and could well be crucial to the outcome, as it was in Iceland.

My friend says that there will be no going back to the staus quo ante, and that the next few days will be crucial.

This quote two days ago from a very well placed (and genuinely religious, although he makes nothing of it) contact of mine in Iran summed it up.

Yes, the situation is very unpleasant and unexpected. We have no doubt that we are now facing a situation that a group with some sort of ideology that in our opinion is very different with what late Emam Khomeini presented to us are consolidating their administrative power. What worries me is the fact that they have not yet clearly indicated what sort of political view as well as religious sect they would like whole country to follow.

My friend also said that one of his nephews was in a group that picked up four arabic-speaking Basiji last night off motorbikes and took them to a warehouse. After giving them a good kicking the rather hapless youths explained that they were cadet Hezbollahi from Lebanon who had been told that they were on some kind of exercise and sent out to crack a few heads....

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:27:55 PM EST
Re: From the Open Thread (none / 0)
Hope his nephew kicked the fucking thugs' teeth in.

We'd heard reports that they were bringing in Hezbollah from Lebanon, apparently on the assumption that Arabs would be more willing to kill Persians than some of their fellow Persians.  Glad to hear of some confirmation.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:30:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: From the Open Thread (4.00 / 3)
This is how myths/rumours start.

Der Spiegel printed something - since debunked - about 5,000 Lebanese Hezbollahi, but I very much doubt that it was anything more than a few already there who were roped in to help.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:45:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: From the Open Thread (none / 0)
Yeah, I knew the Der Spiegel story had been debunked, but I think there had still been separate reports of suspected Hezbollah fighters.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:48:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 4)
Psychologically, this would be the time for Obama to start really pushing the two state solution for Israel and Palestine, and an end to all Israeli settlement activity.

When there is the possibility of a big shift in power in the region, and the chaos that accompanies it, it becomes easier to push immovable objects.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:35:25 PM EST
Indeed (none / 0)
Good point. That would be smart.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:38:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Yes, altho have seen a few Israeli Twitterers saying "How can he speak for Palestinians, and not support Iranian protestors" seems a push to weaken any position he has before that occurrs.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:39:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
From Twitter

endislamicgov eye witness reporting that milita using Ambulances to lure people & then shoot at them near roodaki & azarbayjan st

This looks like standard protest paranoia, its not unusual for rumours like this to stream through the crowd. Not saying it actually is in this case, but you do hear similar (Altho not as terminal) rumours whenever you're in protest crowds.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:36:16 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Agreed.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:37:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
It gets difficult to judge real time information.  One doesn't know if the data from multiple sources are independent and confirming or are spreading one rumor/mis-information many times.

I agree the "Madness of Crowds" needs to be factored into analysis.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:46:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
The White House - Press Office - Statement from the President on Iran
The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:50:29 PM EST
Still spreading (none / 0)
Fighting reported at Resalat Square in Kerman (ESE Tehran).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 02:58:00 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Obama speaking at 3.10PM EST.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:04:59 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
Real World intruding.

Be back later.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:14:04 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Real World intruding.

I hate it when that happens...

We all bleed the same color.

by budr on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 06:26:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Still spreading? (none / 0)
The protesters have apparently burned down a Basij base in South Tehran.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:19:27 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
Sullivan, Froomkin, Hiatt, Iran and AIPAC - Jeffrey Goldberg
The incipient Iranian revolution has upset certain political categories at home, two to be exact: Scowcroftian realism and liberal interventionism (a/k/a neoconservatism). Both, IMHO, are inadequate to the current crisis. The bloodcurdling scenes of oppression on the streets of Teheran betray the limits of cold-hearted realism as an American doctrine: It is not who we are, to stand idly by. Realists believe that power, and power only, has salience in international relations, but American conceptions of right and wrong clearly do as well, and always have.

On the other side of the ledger, it seems as if some neoconservatives are demanding that Barack Obama do more than he's doing simply because that's what we Americans are supposed to do: More. This seems like an unwise strategy; the smartest strategy would be to follow the lead of the Iranian protesters. If they seem to need more American moral support, or other kinds of support, then we should reconsider. But Obama's strategy so far seems basically correct:


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:33:34 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 6)
Think Obama's played it roughly as he should so far.  Denounce violence, support the principle of free assembly and speech, but don't come out as a harsh partisan.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:36:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 4)
Well if he comes out and supports strongly, then things go badly for the protestors, then he'd get a level of blame for building up the hopes of the protestors while in no position to help as Bush I did rightly after the first gulf war.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:43:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
That just about sums up the entire history - Hungary, anyone? - of US Cold Warrior Interventionist Foreign Policy.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:18:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Protesters reportedly breaking through at Haft Hoz Square, throwing Molotov Cocktails at the Basij.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 03:49:19 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Twitter:

ranvote88: Jila Bani Yaghoob (journalist, women rights activist) has been arrested.

Link added

Here is some background.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:33:56 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Twitter:

staeppvargen: #iranelection fr Iran: Mayor of Tehran ([Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf] and Rezai (both former basiji) both have influence on Basiji and both try to use it to stop violence.

Links added

This is beginning to look like a classic melt-down of the State.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:42:35 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Not seeing much of that, though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:54:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
staeppvargen

That is an extremely swedish sounding handle. Stäppvargen is swedish for Steppenwolf and ae is frequently used in place of ä.

Just noting. Does not have to mean anything, lots of swedish-iranians.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 06:33:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Mohammed Asgari, the Interior Ministry official who leaked the alleged real election results to the Torygraph, was apparently killed in a car accident.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 04:59:25 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 4)
How ... convenient.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:13:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Uh...did the website just go grey and white for anybody else?  The colors are all gone.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:00:29 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Nevermind, color's back.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:01:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
how was the outside world?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:41:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Unconfirmed report from Tehran Bureau (@tehranbureau for you Twitter users) that a tank has moved into Azadi Square.

That has to be bad, if true.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:03:04 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
Depends which way the gun is pointing.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:05:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
True.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:19:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
now this:

randomhuman: RT IRAN: Friends deny that there is a military tank in Azadi Sq. It is hard to believe for now..


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:25:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Apparently This is a statement by the Assembly of Experts in full support of Khameni's Friday statement.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:05:30 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Not good news for the Greens, then.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:12:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
More info from twitter:

iran88: RT from Iran: Some not all members of the assembly of experts signed the statement posted earlier.

So ... who knows?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:52:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
It's getting onto 3 AM in Iran and the information stream is slowing down.  

Many reports the basiji (militia) are marking doors of protesters.

This, if true, ups the ante by ... a lot:

ksquared3: RT @oxfordgirl Tonight, Ayatollahs in Qom looking options against Khamenei, are furious and frightened for Islamic Republic.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 05:58:04 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Mehrnews.com (five hours old) Qom Seminary teachers support Leader's guidelines

TEHRAN, June 20 (MNA) -- The Qom Seminary Teachers Society issued a statement on Saturday declaring strong support for the guidelines of the Supreme Leader.

"The Qom Seminary Teachers Society... announces its strong support for his valuable guidelines and invites all (groupings) to maintain unity, abide by the law, and refrain from any action which leads to tension," the statement said.

by Sassafras on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 06:09:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
More information on the letter posted on Nico Pitney's Live Blog.

Quoting in full:

More on the Assembly of Experts statement.

Earlier today, the Tehran Times posted an article claiming that the powerful clerical group, the Assembly of Experts, had on Saturday "expressed its 'strong support' for the Supreme Leader's statements on the presidential elections on Friday." It would have been a major blow to reformists' efforts to win the support of many senior clerics.

But as it turns out, it's not true. Reader Ali writes in:

I just wanted to point out that the letter of support written by assembly of experts in support of Khamenei's sermon is only signed by the deputy leader of the assembly, who is a former head of the judiciary and a staunch supporter of ahmadinejad, as well as a rival of Rafsanjani for the assembly's leadership election. He is the only one signing the letter and the government sponsored news media are reporting it as a letter from the full assembly.

And reader Majid provides more details:

Once again thanks for the great job in reporting the events. Just a comment about your 7:33pm item about the Assembly of Experts. The statement is not by the Assembly of Experts, but by Mohammad Yazdi, the head of the "Dabirkhane" of the Assembly of Experts. His statement doesn't carry much weight and definitely not a blow to the freedom movement. After all, there are certainly many Khamene'i loyalists in the Assembly of Experts and such comments could be expected from these cowards.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 10:43:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Tehran Times: Guardian Council ready to recount 10% of votes

TEHRAN -- The Guardian Council is ready to randomly recount 10 percent of the ballot boxes from the presidential election, GC spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodaii said on Saturday.

Defeated presidential candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi have made allegations of election fraud.

The Guardian Council invited defeated presidential candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi Mahdi Karroubi, and Mohsen Rezaii to attend its emergency session on Saturday to discuss their complaints about the election results.

However, only Mohsen Rezaii attended the meeting.

by Sassafras on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 06:24:26 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
I think it's a little late for that.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 07:07:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090620/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_rafsanjani_s_role_2">AP reporting (from Yahoo):

Top cleric may be playing role in Iran unrest

One of Iran's most powerful men may be playing a key role behind closed doors in the country's escalating postelection crisis.

Former president and influential cleric Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani has made no public comment since Iran erupted into confrontation between backers of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and reformists who claim he stole re-election through fraud.

But Iranian TV has shown pictures of Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi, speaking to hundreds of opposition supporters. And Rafsanjani, who has made no secret of his distaste for Ahmadinejad, was conspicuously absent from an address by the country's supreme leader calling for national unity and siding with the president.

...

Rafsanjani was president between 1989 and 1997, but failed to win a third term when in 2005, losing to Ahmadinejad in a runoff. He was a close follower of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, father of Iran's Islamic Revolution. He now heads the Expediency Council, a body that arbitrates disputes between parliament and the unelected Guardian Council, which can block legislation.

I note the standard reference to a Iranian nuclear weapon program with the standard lack of any evidence Iran actually HAS a nuclear weapon program.

All in all, this is a piece of Grade C reporting but thought I'd include it to show just how bad the US media is.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 10:55:18 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
To be fair, some of the best coverage in the US has come from fairly well-established bloggers (Sullivan and Nico Pitney).  And there have been a few rays of hope in the msm.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:19:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 4)
"The revolution will not be televised but it will be twittered."

Need some time to think it out but first hack at it: Sven is correct.  The ability of the ordinary person to communicate direct from the front lines really does change everything.

(I loathe those last two words, BTW.)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:39:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
ATinNM getting all hopey-changey on me?  Dear, dear....

;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:41:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
LOL

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 12:01:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Reports of Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) have established treatment centers in various EU embassies in Tehran.

No confirmation found on their website.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:00:48 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
From Twitter:

Mr. Moussavi: We need to break the backbone of the regime. Oil workers should go on strike! #iranelection #neda


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:30:37 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
More reports of tanks and heavy machine guns moving into Asadi Square.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:31:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
I keep seeing reports of that but no confirming evidence.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:51:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
I suspect we'll get an answer shortly.  It's 8.30AM in Tehran now.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:59:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Video of Greens pushing back Hezbollah:



Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:32:28 PM EST
On the Lebanese Hezbollah rumours (4.00 / 4)
Drew:
Video of Greens pushing back Hezbollah
Robert Fisk was quoted upthread by Sassafra saying:
Now for the very latest on the fantasy circuit. The cruel "Iranian" cops aren't Iranian at all. They are members of Lebanon's Hizbollah militia. I've had this one from two reporters, three phone callers (one from Lebanon) and a British politician. I've tried to talk to the cops. They cannot understand Arabic. They don't even look like Arabs, let alone Lebanese. The reality is that many of these street thugs have been brought in from Baluch areas and Zobal province, close to the Afghan border. Even more are Iranian Azeris. Their accents sound as strange to Tehranis as would a Belfast accent to a Cornishman hearing it for the first time.
Now, it is  possible that 1) it really is "Hezbollah" fighting the greens; but that 2) the Hezbollahis fighting in Tehran have been brought in from remote regions of iran; 3) Hezbollah of Lebanon has nothing to do with the counterinsurgency going on in Iran.

See Wikipedia: Hezbollah of Iran

The Hezbollah (HizbAllah) or Party of God, is an Iranian movement formed at the time of the Iranian Revolution to assist the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and his forces in consolidating power. Hezbollah is/was not a tightly structured independent organisation, but more a movement of loosely bound groups, usually centered around a mosque, whose "members" are referred to as Hezbollahi,[1] and who "generally act without meaningful police restraint or fear of persecution."[2]

...

Once political challenges to the regime had died down Hezbollahi attacks expanded to include a wide variety of activities found to be undesirable for "moral" or "cultural" reasons,[4] such as poor hijab, mixing of the sexes and consumption of alcohol.[5] Mojtaba Bigdeli is a spokesman for the Iranian Hezbollah.

...

Ansar-e Hezbollah was formed in 1995, [15] A 1997 Amnesty International report describes Ansar-e Hezbollah as an "offshoot" of Hezbollah. [16] and Middle East International describes it as the "vigilante associate" of Hezbollah.[17] Journalist Afshin Molavi describes them as "a small fringe group" with "perhaps 100 Tehran members at most," but with influence disproportionate to its numbers thanks to "links with police and security services and high-level conservative clerics." Ansar-e Hezbollah is known for its attacks against "popular Islamic philosopher" Abdol Karim Soroush.[18]




A man of words and not of deeds is like a garden full of weeds; a man of deeds and not of words is like a garden full of turds — Anonymous
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 03:20:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: On the Lebanese Hezbollah rumours (none / 0)
My Iranian colleague told me that one of his nephews said he had been in a group which dragged a couple of Arabic - speaking "Basiji" off their motorbike, and they turned about to be cadet Hezbollahi from Lebanon who were in Iran for a training course.

Anecdotal, possibly apocryphal.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 04:01:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
The girl who was murdered in the video above was named Neda.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 20th, 2009 at 11:42:55 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 6)
Robert Fisk on Tehran rumours

Earnest reporters check this out - in fact, I have been spending at least a third of my working days in Tehran this past week not reporting what might prove to be true but disproving what is clearly untrue.

Now for the very latest on the fantasy circuit. The cruel "Iranian" cops aren't Iranian at all. They are members of Lebanon's Hizbollah militia. I've had this one from two reporters, three phone callers (one from Lebanon) and a British politician. I've tried to talk to the cops. They cannot understand Arabic. They don't even look like Arabs, let alone Lebanese. The reality is that many of these street thugs have been brought in from Baluch areas and Zobal province, close to the Afghan border. Even more are Iranian Azeris. Their accents sound as strange to Tehranis as would a Belfast accent to a Cornishman hearing it for the first time.

I am reminded of Eisenhower's comment to Foster Dulles when he sent him to London to close down Anthony Eden's crazed war in Suez. The secretary of state's job, Eisenhower instructed Dulles, was to say "Whoah, boy!" Good advice for those who believe in the Twitterers.
by Sassafras on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 02:02:04 AM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
BBC NEWS | World | Middle East | Iran TV says 10 died in protests
Five family members of one of Iran's most powerful figures, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, were arrested during the protest, state media also say.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 07:59:43 AM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
Twiiter:parasympathic BBC resident Tehran correspondent Jon Leyne, a friend and ace reporter, given 24 hours to leave


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 08:11:41 AM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
Seeing more reports of reporters being asked to leave.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 08:22:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
BBC now confirms this.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 09:07:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
Middle East News | Al Arabiya's Tehran bureau closed indefinitely
Iranian authorities have closed Al Arabiya's Tehran bureau until further notice, the Dubai-based Arab satellite station reported Sunday.

The move followed a decision by the Ministry of Information to shut Al Arabiya's Tehran bureau last Sunday for a week just as the protests over disputed presidential elections were getting underway.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 09:12:14 AM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
BBC NEWS | World | Middle East | Iran TV says 10 died in protests

In other developments:

  • Iran's most senior dissident cleric Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri calls for three days of national mourning for those killed in street protests, Reuters news agency reports
  • Former pro-reform President Mohammad Khatami calls for the release of detained activists
  • Iran police chief Gen Esmaeil Ahmadi Moghaddam warns any further unrest will be confronted "decisively"
  • Iranian officials again attack the UK for "interfering".


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 10:24:17 AM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
Rumor, mis-information, and regime propaganda mills are working flat out.

Repeated Twitters:

1.  The Army/National Guard are sending tanks/infantry units/helicopters/airplanes/battleships into Tehran.  

Analysis:  Up to now:  FALSE.  Reliable¹ Iranian Twitters are claiming these are being broadcast by regime supporters to spread panic and despondency among the Greens.

  1.  Journalists arrested.  CONFIRMED.  At least 30 journalists have been arrested in the past two days.

  2.  Basiji (militia) breaking into homes.  CONFIRMED.  The most likely scenario is they are arresting "high profile" protesters and activists of the "Reform" -- see footnote one -- politicians.  

  3.  Mousavi and wife arrested.  FALSE.  

  4.  Rafsanjani relatives arrested overnight.  CONFIRMED.  Apparently only the daughter remains in custody, perhaps because she was giving public speeches in support of the Greens.

  5.  Army supporting Rafsanjani/Greens/Regime.  UNCONFIRMED.  The Army, so far, seems to be sitting this one out.

  6.  Mousavi calls for General Strike.  UNCONFIRMED.  

  7.  Iranian State media calling protesters "terrorists."  CONFIRMED

  8.  Protests continue in the cities of Saqz, Marivan, Kermanshah, and Sanandaj as well as Tehran.  CONFIRMED.  "Sounds of Gunfire" in those cities and "heavy clashes between basiji and protesters" UNCONFIRMED.  

  9.  Tehran police claiming they did NOT shoot Neda - the 16 year old woman Drew posted about yesterday - and they have the bullet that killed her and are investigating.  UNCONFIRMED (But highly likely)

¹  I don't know what that means either.  Sounds good tho' -- don't it?  ;-)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 01:31:48 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Keep seeing a repeated one that A canadianjournalist has been badly beaten while in Government buildings, cant say wether theres anytruth in it or not, or how anyone would get to know.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 02:16:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
That unnamed "Canadian journalist" twitter smacks of rumor/mis-information.  When solid information comes in there's always a name attached, AFAIK.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 03:00:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
This may be the source of that rumor:

A Canadian journalist working in Iran for Newsweek magazine was detained without charge by Iranian authorities Sunday, the magazine said, adding that Maziar Bahari had not been heard from since.

(Source: Pitney, Huffington Post)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 03:21:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Newsweek statement: NEWSWEEK Reporter Detained

On Sunday morning in Tehran, Newsweek's Maziar Bahari was detained without charge by Iranian authorities and has not been heard from since. Mr. Bahari is a Canadian citizen and a renowned journalist and filmmaker, who has been living in and covering Iran for the past decade. Newsweek strongly condemns this unwarranted detention, and calls upon the Iranian government to release him immediately.

Mr. Bahari's coverage of Iran, for Newsweek and other outlets, has always been fair and nuanced, and has given full weight to all sides of the issues. He has worked well with different administrations in Tehran, including the current one.  Since the elections over 20 journalists and bloggers have reportedly been detained; the seizure of innocent journalists is a violation of the right to a free press in Iran. Newsweek asks that world governments use whatever influence they have with the government in Tehran to make clear that this detention is unwarranted and unacceptable, and to demand Mr. Bahari's release.

by Sassafras on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 03:42:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
... Because if he'd been a biased journalist it'd have been fair to arrest him. Oh well.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misčres
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 07:15:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Miscellaneous Reports:

The Iranian Security forces are making an all-out effort to isolate Iran from the web.  I'm rephrasing Twitters & etc to make it harder for the bastards to track down sources.

Continual reports the Army is unwilling to be used by the regime for protester repression.  Iranian State Security (?) keeps spreading the message the Army is here, there, or somewhere ... but the Army never seems to show-up.  

The mullahs are split.  Some are supporting the regime, some are marching with the protesters, some are watching and waiting, some are maneuvering for advantage.  No definitive statement from Qom (Council of Experts, etc.) although the regime tried to 'jump the gun' by spreading a false statement late yesterday.

The bazarris (merchants) have been under economic pressure from the sanctions and competition from Revolutionary Guard.  They seem to be slowly moving towards support of the Greens but these reports could be wishful thinking.

Ahmadinejad surfaced yesterday and "urged the United States and Britain to stop intervening in its domestic affairs."  Ploy based on the successful repression of the 2003 student protests, one supposes.

Reports coming in from several locations of large scale protests continuing outside of Tehran.  Also reports of police using batons, water cannon, and - I'm afraid - gunfire to stop/control the protests.  At this point the use of guns is sporadic and, it must be said, undisciplined.  So far.  

No confirmed reports of Revolutionary Guard heavy equipment (tanks, armored cars, heavy machine guns, etc) being used in repression.  At this point, with the regime seeming to be engaged in an strong effort to stop the protesters, one begins to wonder why.  

A functional Khatami/Mousavi/Rafsanjani alliance, however temporary, may be forming on the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" basis.  If I understand correctly, these represent the factions of the Elite pushed out by Ahmadinejad, et.al., over the past couple of years.  (See Chris' diary Iran: Religion, Modernity...or just Business? for more information.)

  •  Khatami: release those arrested in protests

  •  Mousavi: ppl to turn car lights on from 5pm to 6pm in support those killed and to get around ban on rallies

  •  Rafsanjani:  crickets but supposedly running a meeting of the Council of Experts to solve the crisis

Reports from the ground are saying as the regime interdicts telecommunications the protesters are going back to printing news sheets and small run newspapers and distributing those across the country to maintain information flow within the Green Movement. (Source: NicoPitney, HuffPost)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 02:50:59 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Jim Sciutto re-twitters:

Protesters have powerful backers (Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Larijani). Do they cont to back uprising or cut political deal?

Here is the wikipedia bio for Larijani.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 04:47:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Breaking:  UNCONFIRMED report Rafsanjani's daughter has been released.  

Mousavi continues to call for non-violent protests.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 02:54:56 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
er ...

Mousavi continues to call for non-violent protests ... to continue into the night.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 03:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
CONFIRMED: Rafsanjani's daughter has been released.

(Source: Pitney/HuffPost)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 11:04:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Reports of lots of small groups of demonstrators today and not as much violence.

Tactic or exhaustion?

Unconfirmed rumor the regime is freaking-out over the death of Neda Sedhi (sp?), thinking she may become the symbol of the protests.  That's believable.  Allied to this is the rumor all mosques have been ordered to refuse to conduct a burial service for her which is unbelievable, unless the gov't have gone insane.  Under sharia (Islamic religious law) you HAVE to have a burial service.  Indeed there are certain things that HAVE to be done.  Here for the details.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 03:51:39 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Does sound like the sort of thing you'd toss into the mix as something to destabilise  a theocratic government.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 06:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Saw reports earlier the Basji Headquaters in Tehran was blown-up when a fire ignited the natural gas lines in the building.

This

claims to be evidence it did happen.  The explosion occurs about 5 seconds into the film.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 04:28:45 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Was that accidental?

A man of words and not of deeds is like a garden full of weeds; a man of deeds and not of words is like a garden full of turds — Anonymous
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 04:33:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Reports said the building was deliberately set on fire.  The explosion seems to have been a unintended but not regretted - from the crowd's reaction - result of that.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 04:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Now the regime is saying the protests are being led by the People's Mujahedin of Iran.  They are putting people on State TV claiming to be MKO agents.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 04:54:33 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Continuous reports yesterday of helicopters dropping some form of chemical agent on protesters.  

This video claims to document the effects of that agent

Having been teargassed ;-) I can tell you this is NOT the effect of teargas.  I have no idea what it is.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 05:03:09 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Can't remember the name of the chemical, but it's supposed to give the sensation of burning.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 05:32:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Twitter from a usually reliable source states Mousavi is working on a plan for a General Strike.

And with that ... bye for now.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 05:43:44 PM EST
pessmistic (4.00 / 2)
Haven't read through all the comments, having been off ET for a couple days playing good tourist, and stuffing my face with food and drink, so apologies if I'm just repeating stuff others have said, but a few thoughts.

I don't see this succeeding. I wish I did. However what I see is a regime which not only holds the normal state levers of power, but whose apparatchiks and shocktroops still deeply believe in the state ideology, and which benefits from a large minority of the population with a similar attitude. Furthermore, it is its own entity, not a client state of a major power. It also has little need for foreign support, nor has it ever needed that.

When these kinds of revolutions succeed, it is generally where the rank and file of the regime is made up of careerist opportunists, who only pay lip service to the True Vision of the World. I don't mean that in their heart they oppose it, simply they don't care. There only reason to  with the regime is out of fear of losing their livelihood (or worse). If they see things going south, their instinct is going to be to seek an accomodation with the opposition, and they will be very wary of mass bloodshed since that enormously increases the risk to themselves. But in Iran, these people also have a strong personal investment in the nature of the system. Which is not to say that the other factors arent't there, but they are not the primary ones.

Also the nationalist factor doesn't work for the protesters the way it did in so many of the Soviet and American authoritarian client states. It is at best neutral, and probably on the side of the regime.

by MarekNYC on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 05:49:45 PM EST
Re: pessmistic (none / 1)
I do think Khamenei is toast, though. He doesn't seem to have the support of the police, military, or clerics.

A man of words and not of deeds is like a garden full of weeds; a man of deeds and not of words is like a garden full of turds — Anonymous
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 06:07:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: pessmistic (none / 1)
Well for the state to change, a major part of the state really needs to go over to the rebellion, and absent something like a senior genrals grandchild being shot in the protests, or the state deciding that the army is unreliable, and screws up taking control, or deciding that the oil firms are riddled with US and UK agents bent on the overthrow of the state. It's all up to the state to loose. panic is really their biggest enemy.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 06:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: pessmistic (4.00 / 2)
I think it is likely that Khamenei of Ahmadinejad will panic, but they're not the "regime", they are one faction. Montazeri and Khatami are clerics, Mousavi has not reneged on Khomeini and he was the Prime Minister during the Iran-Iraq war.

So expecting "regime change" is a bit much, but if the opposition is patient they will eventually force Khatami to make a fatal mistake.

A man of words and not of deeds is like a garden full of weeds; a man of deeds and not of words is like a garden full of turds — Anonymous

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 04:22:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: pessmistic (4.00 / 3)
We're in the early stages.  The 1979 revolution started in January 1978 and ended a year later when the Shah left for exile and Ayatollah Khomeini flew in at the end of January.

From the wikipedia article:

The revolution was unique for the surprise it created throughout the world: it lacked many of the customary causes of revolution (defeat at war, a financial crisis, peasant rebellion, or disgruntled military); produced profound change at great speed; was massively popular; overthrew a regime heavily protected by a lavishly financed army and security services; and replaced an ancient monarchy with a theocracy based on Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists (or velayat-e faqih). Its outcome -- an Islamic Republic "under the guidance of an 80-year-old exiled religious scholar from Qom" -- was, as one scholar put it, "clearly an occurrence that had to be explained."

The environment is different, of course, but the mythology of 1979 is certainly an influencing factor today.  For both sides.

There's no question in my mind the regime has the military hardware needed to bring this thing to a bloody, halt.  The Revolutionary Guards - the armed wing of the Ahmadinejad faction - certainly has the equipment and trained personal to use the equipment that, deployed, would overpower a bunch of people throwing rocks.  

IF they are prepared to water the streets with the blood of their fellow countrymen.

At this point, the regime and, perhaps, the leaders of the National Guard are not willing to do it and/or those who are willing to do it are being restrained.

Why?

Don't know.

I merely observe what is not there.  ;-)

The situation is obviously unstable.  Iran cannot continue forever with their major cities paralyzed with protesters, police, militia, and who-knows-who fighting it out on their streets in an escalating cycle of violence.  Recent history, e.g., the 1979 Revolution, shows Iranians ARE willing to accept political and economic chaos over a sustained period of time when they feel it is necessary.

In one analysis, the street protests are going on in the forefront in a background of a power struggle within the Iranian elite.  In a sense, the Greens are being protected by the regime; more precisely, some faction(s) within the regime as a weapon against another faction(s).  Until the struggle within the Elite is ended the regime, one might say, is fighting itself.

One other thing ...

Chris Cook and other people have continually remarked on the difficulty of getting low level bureaucrats and apparatchiks of the regime to make a frickin' decision.  They just won't do it.  This tendency operative under "normal" conditions is going to be even more so when these people are under stress.  They will hem, haw, waffle, and shuffle paper even with orders they would process as a normal day's work previously.  With the top level fighting each other for political survival and the mid-to-low level paralyzed it's impossible for the regime to function.  Even at the dysfunctional level they usually operate on.

So far, and we're are in the early innings, the regime has yet to muster the Will to Fight with all the weapons available.  Until they gin it up the strategic advantage is with the Greens.

(Tho' there is some problems there, as well.)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 11:51:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
The Guardian Council has admitted that 50 cities saw more votes than there were people eligible to vote.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 06:42:27 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
Here's the quote from PressTV:

Iran's Guardian Council has admitted that the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of the people eligible to cast ballot in those areas.

The council's Spokesman Abbas-Ali Kadkhodaei, who was speaking on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2 on Sunday, made the remarks in response to complaints filed by Mohsen Rezaei -- a defeated candidate in the June 12 Presidential election.

"Statistics provided by Mohsen Rezaei in which he claims more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 170 cities are not accurate -- the incident has happened in only 50 cities," Kadkhodaei said.



Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 07:10:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 4)
Drew J Jones:
"Statistics provided by Mohsen Rezaei in which he claims more than 100% of those eligible have cast their ballot in 170 cities are not accurate -- the incident has happened in only 50 cities," Kadkhodaei said.

LOL.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misčres

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 07:18:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Fucking brilliant, right?

You almost couldn't have made that quote up.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 07:32:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
Can the Republicans sue for IP infringement of their business plan to put the Onion out of business by making statements that no satirist could credibly get away with?
by MarekNYC on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 07:35:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Only if they agree to cap the judgment at $200,000.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 07:42:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
Sounds ridiculous, but its not like they are admitting fraud.
A Primer on Iran's Presidential Election System -- ACE Electoral Knowledge Network
In Iran, there is no voter registration or roll. Iranians can vote anywhere as long as they present their national identification book, or Shenasnameh.
 
by generic on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 07:39:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Fair point, but still very funny.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 07:45:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
So they could organize caravans of buses from poling place to poling place and there would be no way to detect this ex post facto?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 05:23:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
I presume they mark the book in some way to show that you voted. So you would need to at least pretend to have lost your book and get a spare. This seems a lot of effort to go to when you can just make up the results any way you want.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 05:28:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
My understanding is that fingers of voters were inked to avoid duplicate voting...



Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misčres

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 06:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 3)
Heads-up notice.

Google has rushed their Farsi/English (Alpha Release) translation program out.

You can find it here.

Caveat:  It is even worse than their standard translation programs.  As in:

میر حسین موسوی  فردا؛ مردم چراغ های اتومبیل خود را روشن می گذارند/صادر نشدن مجوز برای تجمع و راهپیمایی و نیز سرکوب شدید تجمعات مسالمت آمیز مردمی ، مردم را به خلق شیوه های جدید تر اعتراض واداشته است. به مشاهدات و شنیده ها از سطح شهر ها حاکی است، مردم تصمیم گرفته اند فردا دوشنبه اول تیرماه و از ساعت 5 تا شش بعد از ظهر و به نشانه ی اعتراض و نیز همدردی با شهدای شنبه سی ام تیر ماه چراغ های اتومبیل خود را روشن کنند.

Translates (sic) to:

   
Mir-Hossein Mousavi tomorrow; people turn their car lights to pass / permit issued for the gathering and inexorable march of the severe repression of peaceful people, people to create new ways of protest Vadashth is more. And heard the views from the city indicate the level is, the people have decided tomorrow first Monday of July and up to six hours after 5 pm and sign of protest and sympathy with the martyrs Saturday July thirtieth lights on their cars to.

oh-kay.  Whatever.

Anyway.  There it is in all its radiant splendor.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 10:56:32 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
Beats the Hell out of the original text for one who can't read  Farsi.  :-)

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 08:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
Statement from Mir Hossein Moursavi published today:

Dear dignified and intelligent people of Iran,

A turning point in the history of our nation is emerging these days and nights. People are asking themselves and, in their rallies, me about what should be done [about the present situation], and which direction should be taken [to continue the protests]. I consider it my duty to explain to you what I think, and to tell you and be taught by you, so that we will not forget our historic mission, and take the responsibility for the future and fate of many [future] generation and eras.

30 years ago a revolution under the banner of Islam was victorious; a revolution to revive freedom and human rights; a revolution for honesty. During this period, particularly when our enlightened Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini] was still living, the nation invested heavily in terms of human lives, wealth, and credibility, in order to consolidate this achievement, which brought us further achievements. The light that we had never experienced before filled our society, and people gained new lives that, although very difficult [a reference to the Iran-Iraq war], were sweet and rewarding. What our people had gained were human rights and freedom, and uncorrupted lives. I am certain that those who experienced this life will never settle for anything less.

Interlinear notes original.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 21st, 2009 at 10:59:38 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
albawaba.com middle east news information::Iran's Guardian Council confirms fraud in election
Iran's Guardian Council has revealed that the number of votes cast in 50 Iranian cities exceeded the number of people entitled to vote. According to the Iranian media, the additional votes "could be over 3 million and the council could at the request of the candidates re-count the affected ballot boxes."
This could be big.

A man of words and not of deeds is like a garden full of weeds; a man of deeds and not of words is like a garden full of turds — Anonymous
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 05:04:50 AM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 1)
Yes, that leads me to believe there are people high up pushing information out, which might suggest serious trouble for Khamenei.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 07:28:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
BBC Persian service Reporting (Untranslated) Iranian foreign ministry considering expelling foreign diplomats. (unable to confirm 100% that this is what the page fully says)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 09:30:57 AM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Google translate gives
Iran in response to European Mvzgyry recent electoral developments subject to dismissal in some European ambassadors to review.

روز دوشنبه، 22 ژوئن (1 تیر)، حسن قشقاوی، سخنگوی وزارت امور خارجه ایران با انتقاد از برخورد کشورهای غربی با اعتراضات مربوط به نتایج انتخابات اخیر گفت که رفتار و اظهارات این کشورها در قبال مسایل اخیر ارزیابی و رصد می شود و "اقدامات مقتضی و متناسب با واقعیات در حال بررسی است" و افزود که کمیسیون امنیت ملی و سیاست خارجی مجلس همراه با وزیر خارجه و معاونان این وزارت خانه این موضوع را در دست بررسی دارند. Monday, June 22 (June 1), Hassan Ghashghavi, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman criticized the Western countries treated the protests with the recent election results that the behavior and statements of recent issues of these countries towards the assessment and observation and is "actions appropriate and proportionate with the facts is pending, "and added that the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of Majlis deputies, along with Secretary of the Ministry of Home Affairs in this review are available on the subject.

آقای قشقاوی، که در نشست خبری هفتگی خود گفت که در اجلاس فوق العاده کمیسیون امنیت ملی و سیاست خارجی مجلس، "ابعاد مختلف مداخلات برخی کشورهای غربی در انتخابات در حوزه های سیاسی و رسمی، اطلاعاتی و امنیتی و نیز رسانه ای" در حال بررسی است و مستندات آن به مجلس ارائه شده است. Mr. Qashqavi, in his weekly news conference that the extraordinary session of National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of Parliament, "the various aspects of interventions in some Western countries in the field of elections and political official, intelligence and security and the media" pending and documentation that is presented to Parliament.



A man of words and not of deeds is like a garden full of weeds; a man of deeds and not of words is like a garden full of turds — Anonymous
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 23rd, 2009 at 11:08:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (4.00 / 2)
New source of information:

Tehran Broadcast

This website aims to bridge the gap between English and Persian news makers, media, bloggers, twitters, etc. In particular, we try to bring first-hand news from Iran and present them in English. The entries of this website are written by people from Iran and translated by some 300 translators. Please send Persian news material for translation to "submit [at] balatarin [dot] com".


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Jun 22nd, 2009 at 10:35:47 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
CONFIRMED: The staff of Mir Mousavi's official news agency, newspapers and web sites, have been arrested.

Statement from Mir Mousavi:

Farsi


بیانیه جدید جبهه مشارکت ایران اسلامی
جبهه مشارکت ایران اسلامی که دبیرکل و چند عضو بلندپایه آن در زندان هستند، در جدیدترین بیانیه خود تصریح کرده است: اکثریت ملت چیزی جز رأی خود را نمی طلبد، پس باید بر این خواسته قانونی و مدنی ایستاد.

به گزارش «موج سوم» متن کامل این بیانیه بدین شرح است:

بسم الله الرحمن الرحیم

ملت بزرگ ایران! امروز همه ما با شرائط و حوادثی روبرو هستیم که بیش از هر چیز نشاندهنده عزم گروهی اندک، متکی به قدرت برای هدم پایه های جمهوریت و مردمسالاری و ایستادن در برابر خواست مشروع و قانونی ملت است.
انتخابات 22 خرداد که می توانست و می تواند منشاء تحولی بزرگ برای کشور باشد و حضور بی سابقه مردم که نشان دهنده باور و اعتماد آنها به کارآیی نظام جمهوری اسلامی و اصلاح پذیر بودن آن از راههای مدنی بخصوص انتخابات بود، با مهندسی عجیبی روبرو شد که نتیجه آن کاملا با آنچه مردم در صندوقها ریخته بودند متفاوت گشت. این واقعه عجیب که نه فقط حق مردم را در این انتخابات نادیده انگاشت بلکه اگر به آن رسیدگی نشود و حق مردم به آنها باز نگردد سبب قهر دائمی آنها با صندوق های رای خواهد شد، چرا که مردم صندوق رای را تابوت استبداد و دریچه ای بسوی مردمسالاری می پنداشتند. بی انصافی بزرگ در این است که حضور مردم را در این انتخابات حماسه بی نظیر بدانیم اما عاملان اصلی این حضور را به زندان بیندازیم. مقایسه آمارهای حضور مردم در انتخابات چندین سال گذشته نشان می دهد که افزایش قریب به 30 درصدی مردم در این انتخابات مرهون تلاش عظیم اصلاح طلبان است که در ماه های گذشته با موج امید ، برای اولین بار تحریم انتخابات را منتفی کردند و همه کسانی را که با صندوق های رای قهر کرده بودند به پای صندوق کشاندند و حماسه حضور را عینیت بخشیدند. اما اینک متاسفانه اکثریت این شورآفرینان در زندان های امنیتی به سر می برند و از وضع و حال آنها هیچ اطلاعی در دست نیست.
پس از اعلام نتایج نتایج انتخابات ما شاهد حضور پر صلابت مردم در دفاع از رای خود بودیم. . این حضور پر معنا و خودجوش چیزی نبود جز تداوم حضور مردم در پای صندوق های رای. اما پاسخی که این مردم دریافت داشتند خشونت ، تخریب و متاسفانه شهادت عزیزانی بود که مسئولیت آن تماما بر عهده کسانی است که این انتخابات را مهندسی کردند و رودروی مردم و خواسته آنان ایستادند. قبل از انتخابات فضای امنیتی بر کشور حاکم کردند و سپس آن را به فضای نظامی تبدیل کردند، همه کسانی را که به گواهی سابقه آنها عوامل آرامش بخشی مردم و تلطیف فضای سیاسی جامعه و پرهیز دهنده خشونت و منادی رفتارهای مسالمت آمیز بودند به زندان انداختند و بدتر از همه با تبلیغات نادرست خشونت ها و آشوب ها را به مردم نسبت دادند.
مردم شریف ایران! امروز کشور ما در شرایط حساسی به سر می برد، اکثریت ملت چیزی جز رأی خود را نمی طلبد، باید بر این خواسته قانونی و مدنی ایستاد، این ایستادگی با آرامش و از طریق رفتارهای مسالمت آمیز و مدنی و مقاومت منفی امکان پذیر است. ما ضمن محکوم کردن همه خشونت ها و تخریب ها ساحت مردم را از این امور مبرا می دانیم و از خود آن ها می خواهیم اجازه ندهند عده ای از آب گل آلود برای مقاصد ناپاک خود ماهی بگیرند از طرف دیگر اراده ای وجود دارد که می خواهد از همین فرصت استفاده کند و برای همیشه مردم سالاری را بی موضوع کند. راه اصلی آن ها در این میانه دمیدن در کوره خشونت ، بالا بردن هزینه های مردم و مایوس کردن آن ها از هرگونه اصلاح و رادیکالیزه کردن فضای سیاسی کشور است. تنها در این صورت است که آن ها می توانند فضای امنیتی - نظامی را حاکم کنند و به آمال خود دست یایند. ما ضمن مسئول دانستن نیروهای انتظامی و امنیتی به خصوص در حفظ جان و اموال مردم معتقدیم باید از حضور نیروهای غیرمسئول مثل لباس شخصی ها که سهم مهمی در افزایش تنش دارند جلوگیری شود. رفتارهای آن ها نشان می دهد که مایل به آرامش جامعه نیستند و تنها در سایه رعب و حاکمیت ترس، تسلط بر مردم را ممکن می دانند. قطع همه راه های ارتباطی دلسوزان جامعه و رهبران اصلاحات با مردم ، سانسور وسیع و گسترده و بی نظیر داخلی و خارجی ، تبلیغات یک سویه صدا و سیما و رسانه های دولتی نشان دهنده این عزم است. اما ما شک نداریم این ملت خواهد ماند و از آرمان های امام و انقلاب و جمهوری اسلامی که دستاورد تاریخی و خون بهای عزیزانش است پاسداری خواهد کرد و هر کس در برابر اراده ملت بایستد رفتنی خواهد بود.
جبهه مشارکت ایران اسلامی نیز امروز در تنگنای بزرگی قرار دارد. دستگیری اکثر چهره های اصلی ، تعطیلی روزنامه یاس نو، فیلتر شدن سایت اطلاع رسانی حزب، بستن دفتر مرکزی حزب و تهدیدهای روزافزون نسبت به تشدید این رفتارها، سبب می شود که متاسفانه حزب ما نیز نظیر سایر نهادهای مدنی در آرام کردن اوضاع و تشویق راه های مدنی توفیق نداشته باشد.
ما در عین حال که از خواسته اصلی ملت یعنی وفاداری به رای مردم حمایت می کنیم و پشتیبان بی چون وچرای محور این حرکت عظیم اصلاحی، جناب آقای موسوی هستیم از حاکمیت نیز خواهانیم تا گره ای را که امروز با سرانگشت تعقل و تدبر قابل باز کردن است به گره کوری تبدیل نکنند که دیگر به هیچ راهی گشوده نشود. در این راستا ما خواهان آن هستیم:
1 - فضای امنیتی و نظامی به فضای سیاسی و اجتماعی تبدیل شود و به جای منع روش های مسالمت آمیز به راه کارهای مصرح در قانون اساسی نظیر اجتماعات مسالمت آمیز مجوز داده شود.
2 - فضای اطلاع رسانی و ارتباطی به وضعیت قبل از انتخابات برگردد و اجازه داده شود تا به جای شایعات و تحریفات حقایق و واقعیت ها به گوش مردم برسد و رهبران اصلی جامعه از جناح های سیاسی مختلف بتوانند با برقراری ارتباط با مردم فضای تعقل و تدبیر را در ساحت سیاسی جامعه حاکم کنند.
3- فعالیت احزاب و نهادهای مدنی به حالت عادی برگردد و سایه رعب و وحشت از سر نخبگان جامعه دور شود و بر اساس مسئولیت پذیری ، بین حاکمیت و احزاب و نهادهای مدنی ، قانون داور و حاکم شود.
4 - توقف روند بازداشت ها و آزادی فوری و بی قید و شرط همه زندانیان سیاسی عاملی بسیار مهم در آرام شدن احساسات جریحه دار شده عموم مردم است. اینک که ثابت شده است هیچ جریان و نیروی فعال سیاسی کشور نه فقط در جریان های آشوب کمترین نقشی نداشته اند بلکه حتی از برقراری راهپیمایی ها و تظاهرات مسالمت آمیز چند روز گذشته هم اطلاعی نداشته اند، تدبیر آن است که با فراهم کردن زمینه حضور مجدد این فعالین سیاسی و اجتماعی در جامعه به همگان ثابت کرد که حکومت از تلاش همه نیروهای سیاسی مدافع آرامش و رفتارهای مسالمت آمیز استقبال می‌کند و درصدد فرافکنی نیست.
5 - ریشه اصلی همه حوادث روزهای گذشته در مهندسی عظیم آرا و اثرگذاری بر نتیجه انتخابات است. ابطال انتخابات می‌تواند اعتماد گسسته ملت - حکومت را بازسازی کند و سرمایه ای برای سازندگی کشور باشد. بدیهی است که در شرایط کنونی تمسک به شورای نگهبان راهگشا نیست چرا که قبل از انتخابات این نهاد نظارتی ، بی طرفی را با کمال صراحت کنار گذاشت و هیچ داور بی طرفی نمی پذیرد که این شورا بتواند داوری عادل و حاکمی بی طرف در این موضوع مهم باشد.
6 - ما مصرانه خواستار شناسایی عاملان اصلی این شبهه کودتا در کشور هستیم تا مردم ایران و جهانیان باور کنند که جمهوری اسلامی اجازه خیانت به رای ملت را نمی دهد و خانواده های ایثارگران و مومنین و متدینین و نخبگان و فعالان سیاسی و اجتماعی و کارآفرینان و فرهنگ سازان و همه آحاد مردم ایران مطمئن شوند که مشعلی که امام خمینی (ره) در این کشور بر افروخت همچنان دلیل راه ما در رسیدن به سرمنزل مقصود است.
7 - ما از همه مراجع معظم تقلید ، علمای اعلام ، بزرگان دینی ، شخصیت های خدوم و مورد وثوق ملت انتظار داریم در این اوضاع حساس ، رسالت تاریخی خود را در دفاع از ملت و حفظ خون و نوامیس مردم به انجام رسانند و علاوه بر نصیحت دولتمردان و حاکمان به رعایت عدل و انصاف، اعتماد و آرامش را به جامعه نگران ایران بازگردانند.

Automatic Google Translation:

Islamic Iran Participation Front, the new statement:

Front and Secretary General of the Islamic Iran Participation few senior members are in prison, in his latest statement has reiterated: majority vote of the people nothing but not requiring, so this should be asked to stand and civil law.

Reports «Third Wave» Full text of this statement follows:

In the Name of God

Great nation IRAN! Today we all face with the conditions and events more than anything shows little group determination, relying Hdm power base of democracy and the republic and stop the demand is legitimate and legal people.

June 22 election that could change the origin and can be great for the country and the unprecedented presence indicates that they believe and trust performance regimes to be repairable and the election was especially civil ways, with a strange face in the engineering fully with the result that people were different funds poured patrol. This strange event that not only the right people in this election, but if you ignore the assumption that the right people and not deal with them not to open due to anger with their permanent funds will vote because the ballot box in the coffin of dictatorship and into a gate hosts: they are democracy. Great injustice is that the presence of people in this election epic unique know this, but the presence of the main prison occurred. Comparing the statistics of the presence of several elections last year that increased approximately 30 percent of people in this election trying to oblige the great reformers in the past months with the wave of hope for the first time to rule out boycotting the elections in all those who PO Box Voting Power in leg had to fund Kshandnd epic presence and identity of Bkhshydnd. But now, unfortunately, the majority Shvrafrynan security prison and suffered from any situation and present them is not known.

After the election results announced results we Slabt presence of people in defense of his votes were. . The presence of meaning and was not something spontaneous but the continuing presence of the foot votes funds. But the response was received that the violence, destruction and unfortunately Zyzany testimony was entirely the responsibility for those elections is that in engineering and Rvdrvy people and asked them stood. Atmosphere of security before the elections in ruling the country and then into the military in space, all those who experience them certified agents and calm part of the political atmosphere subtilize donor community, and to avoid violent behavior and high priest were peaceful and imprison Advertise with the worst violence and chaos wrong people to have them.
Honorable people of Iran! Today our country is sensitive to conditions take over majority vote of the people nothing but not requiring, this should be asked to stand and civil law, with peace and stop this behavior through peaceful civil resistance and negative is possible. We also condemn all violence and destruction ها Saht the affairs of innocent people and to know they will be allowed not to score a number of purposes unclean water turbidity to take fish on the other hand is that there will be the same opportunity to use and always subject to democracy without the. Main way they inspire the middle oven violence, raising the cost of people and they disappoint any reform and political space is Radykalyz·h. If only the security space, it can - to the ruling military and its aspirations of Yaynd. We also know the forces responsible for security, especially in maintaining people's lives and property should we believe that the presence of forces such irresponsible ها clothes that tensions are major contributions to prevention. Behavior indicates that they want peace and not only society and the rule of Rb in the shadow of fear, people may dominate the know. Cut all the way community leaders and compassionate communication with the reform, censorship, and the broad and extensive internal and external unique, advertising unidirectional radio and television media and government is illustrated by determination. But we have no doubt this nation will and ideals of the Imam and the Islamic Republic and Revolutionary history and the achievement of blood guard will cost families and everyone in the nation will stand will be imperfect.

Today the Islamic Iran Participation Front is a large tree. Arrest figures most original, new holiday newspaper Yas, filtering information site party, party central office and close the growing threats to exacerbate this behavior causes the party, unfortunately, we also like other civil institutions to calm the situation and encouraging way success is not civil.

About the same time the main demands of loyalty to the nation that we support the people's vote and support because without corrective Vchray axis of this great movement, Mr. Mousavi Khvahanym are also the rule to a node that today fingertip contemplation and Tdbr be open node into blindness is not no way to open the other not. In this context, we demand that we:
1 - space, security and military political and social environments become prohibited and instead the path of peaceful methods Msrh work in communities such as the constitution permit to be peaceful.

2 - Information and communication space to the situation before the elections and be allowed to return to and distortions of facts and rumors instead of facts to reach the ears of society and leaders of various political factions so that communication with the atmosphere of contemplation and machinate Saht in political society to govern.

3 - Activities of political parties and civil institutions and return to normal Rb shadow and fear is far from over society and based on accountability, between parties and civil institutions and rule of law, and the judge is ruling.

4 - stop the process of arrest and immediate release and unconditionally all political prisoners in a very important factor in hush feelings are hurt by the public. Now the flow has been proven and no active political force not only during the minimum of Chaos not have a role, but even the establishment of peaceful protests and marches past few days I have not had no information, the gimmick is to provide field presence again This political and social activists, community proved to everyone that the government of all political forces trying to advocate peace and peaceful behavior and welcomes Astral is planning.

5 - the main root of all accidents in the last days of great engineering Asrgzary on the results of votes and elections. Voidance elections can trust discrete nation - the state capital for reconstruction and reconstruction of the country. Obviously, the present document to the Guardian Council Rahgsha is because regulatory institutions before elections, the same impartiality and no judge explicitly said the impartiality does not accept that the council be able to judge just and impartial ruling on this important topic be.

6 - We identified the main cause of persistently demanded coup in this country are to doubt the Iranian people and the world to believe that the Islamic Republic of betraying the nation does not vote and families and Isargaran Mvmnyn and Mtdynyn elite and political activists and social entrepreneurs and CBS and all the sections of the burner ensure that Imam Khomeini (RH) Afrvkht still in this country because of the way our goal is to reach Srmnzl.

7 - All of our bodies imitate His holiness, announced scholars, elders, religious, and the characters Khdvm Vosough We expect people in this sensitive situation, its historical mission to defend the nation and preserve blood Nvamys and put people to do in addition to talking statesmen and rulers to observe justice and fairness, confidence and peace of the society concerned restore.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Jun 23rd, 2009 at 04:46:37 PM EST
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
Forgive my ignorance, but why does Mousavi have an official news agency?  I mean, was he a media mogul before?  Is he like Burlesquoni or something?

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Tue Jun 23rd, 2009 at 05:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
I don't know.

Guessing: "news agency" is what we would call "his Communications staff."

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Jun 23rd, 2009 at 05:31:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) (none / 0)
He worked as an Architect before entering the election process. So I guess he didn't have any communication staff beforehand ?

"What can I do, What can I write, Against the fall of Night". A.E. Housman
by margouillat (hemidactylus(dot)frenatus(at)wanadoo(dot)fr) on Wed Jun 24th, 2009 at 02:40:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Liveblogging Iran (Continuous Updates) | 178 comments (177 topical, 1 editorial, 0 hidden)


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