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The 11th thesis on wikileaks

by talos Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 04:39:11 AM EST


The highly sage, practical bureaucrats who secretly and unjustifiably think of themselves in the way that Pericles openly and rightly boasted of himself: "I am a man who is the equal of anyone both in knowing the needs of the state and in the art of expounding them" -- these hereditary leaseholders of political intelligence will shrug their shoulders and remark with oracular good breeding that the defenders of freedom of the press are wasting their efforts, for a mild censorship is better than a harsh freedom of the press. We reply to them with the words of the Spartans Sperthias and Bulis to the Persian satrap Hydarnes:


"Hydames, you have not equally weighed each side in your advice to us. For you have tried the one which you advise, the other has remained untried by you. You know what it means to be a slave, but you have never yet tried freedom, to know whether it is sweet or not. For if you had tried it, you would have advised us to fight for it, not merely with spears, but also with axes."

Karl Marx: On freedom of the Press

1. What is in the long run perhaps more important than the actual content of the leaked cables, or the revelations of atrocities uncovered and admitted in Iraq and Afghanistan, is the uncovering through its reflexive response, of what is practically a mechanism of internet control by powerful state and non-state actors. From Amazon to Pay Pal, from DDOS attacks to credit cards and data visualization companies, and then outside the web to banks, the Swedish and British court systems, Interpol, the whole world it seems - everybody fell on wikileaks with a vengeance that was meant, I suppose, less to silence this particular story (something that I imagine even the most deluded of state and corporate technocrats knew was pointless) but rather to inflict damage against the organization at a time when it was growing stronger and, more importantly I imagine, to discourage any further groups or networks from joining the game. This is not mainly an attempt to shut down, but rather to intimidate and contain...


2. This comes at a time when the basic liberties of the Internet as we have hitherto known it, are under attack, and attempts are made to tame the worldwide web wilderness it into a commercialized and controlled greenhouse: See the developments on ACTA, Google's apparent decision to censor torrent searches, apparently illegal domain seizures in the US among other developments. These have to be seen in the context of the unprecedented attack in much of the first world against democracy, social welfare and worker incomes, a final push for the Neoliberalization of Everything. It seems to be an integral part of this ongoing attempt at a neofeudal counter-reformation.


3. The resilience of wikileaks and the broad and widespread support it has garnered is a cause for jubilation. Not only has the whole operation proved that it can survive under the most profound threats and attacks, it has created a world-wide movement of support. The speed at which the whole web was mobilized to preserve and keep track of the wikileaks site, as well as the campaigns and solidarity moves in support is impressive.
In recent developments, the nebulous collective of web commando/trolls working under the name Anonymous, a swarm of magnificent/annoying vigilantes, has been active today wreaking revenge on Wikileaks' adversaries and frightened twitter to reinstate their briefly banned account, showed that a loosely organized bunch of LOIC-wielding guerilla nerds can survive on the friendly cyber-terrains of the Internets and cause as much trouble to (what I cannot help but call) The Man, as a bunch of AK-47-toting Iraqi goat-herders caused the US occupation forces. Make no mistake this is an unfolding war... (Facebook is as I'm writing this, in trouble)


4. In an age of generalized state and corporate surveillance it offers some consolation that there exist ways to reverse the tables and give citizens an opportunity to spy on their governments for a change.


5. Wikileaks is bound to grow stronger from these events. It has extra street-cred now, a hero's status for many, and it is bound to attract more, not fewer, leakers, not to mention contributors, of all sorts in the future. Assange has stated that a big bank is next in line. This too will certainly not hurt wikileaks' status. But it will gain them some really powerful enemies. Julian Assange is not personally is safe yet. However I do think that if he survives this first round of charges and legal clashes he will live to become, for better or for worse, a legend in his own time, an internet free speech icon. But Wikileaks is not Assange anyway. I have no doubt that the organization will continue regardless of what happens to Assange himself.


6. The wikileaks affair is bound to change the way classified information is circulated and increase the vigilance of state and corporate actors regarding the safety of their communications. The discomfort this will cause in the corridors of power, should be a minor source of happiness to the universe of proles for whose discomfort and harm such corridors are working overtime lately.


7. Through this whole chain of events wikileaks is inventing a new form and process of muckraking journalism for the 21st century. The synergy between wikileaks and major world newspapers, is something that will be repeated, tinkered with and copied, I'd wager, around the world. Especially in a world with a growing deficit of MSM incisive and revelatory reporting, it might lead to a quantum jump towards some sort of emerging world-wide citizen supported network of really free journalism.


8. The wikileaks saga will also serve as a model for alternative web survival strategies. In fact, it raises the issue of a need to invent even more fall-back routes and methods, for projects that run afoul of state and corporate rules. This is something that should be developing from the ground up over the next few years. I believe that at the end what is needed is an emergent "shadow infrastructure" that will be able to "hide" and support alternative ventures, as much as possible, outside of the control of government, corporate or supranational bodies.


9. In order to do this, some sort of alliance needs to be built to protect Internet freedom and independence, around the world and across ideological lines. From universities and research centers to labor unions, from hacker teams to NGOs and from political parties to newspapers and content commons, at least some sort of unspoken understanding needs to emerge that will allow implicit collaboration in such a project.


10. Thus wikileaks can and should serve as an example that needs imitators on all fronts. It isn't just a fixed organization: it's an idea, an open proposal, a template. It offers more than a particular batch of information that reveals government crimes and hypocrisy: it offers proof that such an organization can exist and have an effect.

And so one arrives finally at the 11th thesis:

11. Philosophers and pundits have only interpreted wikileaks in various ways - the point however is to emulate it...

[Based on some thoughts and reactions after reading Geert Lovink's ten theses on wikileaks, where he raises some very valid and important points...]

A first draft of this was posted originally at histologion

Display:
An Anonymous manifesto of sorts. Kind of lacking a political identity, quoting from Jefferson to Ron Paul, but their heart seems to be , generally speaking, in the right place...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 05:00:43 AM EST
A very useful diary. Thanks.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 06:40:44 AM EST
Just some notes from a pirate perspective.

The Pirate Party of Sweden has been hosting a wikileaks server since august. Since the attacks on the wikileaks site started in earnest, the Pirate Party has been under DDOS-attacks. Servers mostly up and running though (the advantage of aving lots of technicians). Free of charge and politically hard to take down.

A bunch of pirate parties quickly set up mirrors when the site came under attack.

Flattr - founded by people that brought you the Pirate Bay - has confirmed that they will in no way stop payments to wikileak unless the organisation is proved in court of law to have committed a crime.

And Cablegates has shown that the US gave instructions to the Swedish government on taking down Pirate Bay, on which changes to make to copyright law, and warned about potential successes for the Pirate Party.

In conclusion: organisation rocks, and the US government does not like it.

Relationship to Anonymous has been somewhat strained though. Unsurprising, relationships are seldom easy between political and militant groups with common goals.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 08:04:44 AM EST
I think it's important not to exaggerate the whole wikileaks situation. From what we've seen so far, the honest conclusion is that there really isn't very much going on behind closed doors that people don't already know about or presume is happening.  Has wikileaks really provided any "game changing" information from all of its stolen US cables and documents? From what I can see, although it has embarrassed some individuals for their private shenanigans, the only effects of the Afghan-Iraq documents and the State Department cables is that the rest of the world, particularly potential rivals like China and Russia and those who might be considering breaking their relationship with the US and opting for other sponsors, has been able to get a look at how overwhelmingly involved, professional, and capable is the US diplomatic and defense infrastructure compared to anything they might hope to offer in contrast.  

Also, there is likely to be a limit to how much damage uncovering secrets can do.  If the thesis is true that the US has been too aggressive in classifying information as secret or confidential, it means, by definition, that exposing those secrets cannot be of much consequence to the system as whole, even if some individuals get embarrassed by it.

by santiago on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 10:58:42 AM EST
Nonetheless having documentary evidence of things that everyone who wanted to know could have known already is worth a lot. It makes maintaining a will full ignorance much harder.
by generic on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 12:35:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup, plausible deniability is destroyed.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 12:37:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure this is the case, unless we could count on moles always giving us these documents to look up, which isn't going to happen.  As US Defense Sec. Gates said, the US diplomatic and military establishment has always "leaked like a sieve" and it hasn't prevented anyone from going about the darker side of the business before, so what's really different now?
by santiago on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 01:25:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Overall, I think it's a very positive thing for lots of reasons.  Academic research, particularly.  

But it looks like the positive benefits are going to accrue more to the US military-diplomatic establishment than to anyone else.  So far, the sum total of the documents make the "empire" look like a first rate shop of public servants who know what they are doing and are honestly engaged in the day-to-day business of world government.

Serious rivals who are envious of American power are likely now realizing the extent of the gap they have to make up if they actually envision a world order without American dominance.  

A lot of this may be because you are only seeing the America side of the story -- what American diplomats are saying about foreign leaders and national characteristics, some of it not at all positive, and not the negative descriptions of the US.  But is wikileaks or anyone else actually going to try to spill stolen Chinese, Iranian or Venezuelan diplomatic correspondence to the world for a counter-comparison?  My guess is not, because people in this kind of business like to go after "The Man" and not the rebels.  And this can only work in favor of the American government unless there is something truly surprising in any of the leaks.

My guess is that applications at the State Department, CIA, military, and like organizations throughout the OECD countries are going to be boosted as college kids read more of the cables and envision themselves doing the fun and rewarding work that they see in the leaks.

by santiago on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 01:06:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My guess is that applications at the State Department, CIA, military, and like organizations throughout the OECD countries are going to be boosted as college kids read more of the cables and envision themselves doing the fun and rewarding work that they see in the leaks.

LOL

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 01:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll admit that the image of the FS that you get from the cables is quite a bit more appealing than the one I got from FSO's, ex and current, back when I was considering it.  
by MarekNYC on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 10:55:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wikileaks does not go after nations, it publishes leaked documents. So if you are going to argue that other countries will not have documents leaked you should start from the leaker not the organisation it is leaked to.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 03:39:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but not quite. Julian Assange's statements regarding the Afghan files and the cablegate files clearly demonstrate an intention to go after some people and groups more than others.  He clearly sees the problems of the world, as many other do and with some reason, centered on US and corporate imperialism and that's been his focus.

Futhermore, there is just not much to be gained from anyone in another country by leaking a similar collection of diplomatic cables because no other country is "the empire." Does anyone around the world really want to read the diplomatic cables of Norway, Japan, or Brazil?  It makes such leaks unlikely and, as an unintended consequence, leaves the public with only the collection of well written US documents with lots of unflattering things to say about other nations and nothing particularly unflattering about the US.  China or Russia could be exceptions because they are often perceived as "the Man" too, in their respective spheres of influence, but I'm thinking that, compared to the consistent professionalism displayed so far and the sheer volume of US leaks, Russia and China would be embarrassed not by any secrets that got out but by the paucity of material and professionalism in their diplomatic communications compared to the US.  

In fact, if I were a Russian or Chinese secret policeman today, I would be hiring scores of writers right now to manufacture a set of cables to make it appear as if Russian or Chinese diplomats actually did the same kind of work that the Americans do and then provide it to wikileaks for equal time to take away from the American coverage.  (What a plot!)

by santiago on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 04:04:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd very much like to read the cables of other countries.  Especially ones like China where we have far less understanding of what is going on inside the government than we do for the US.  One big catch here is that I can't read Chinese, so I'd be very reliant on the media without any ability to go in for a look-see myself.  The other countries I'd like to see would be Russia and Poland.
by MarekNYC on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 10:59:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I would too, which is why I think China, and Russia, would be exceptions.  They're also in "The Man" category. But in addition to currently Anglo-centered wikileaks needing to source additional language resources (which shouldn't be that hard to do), there has to actually exist the kind and volume of documented cables or electronic communications in other countries of interest as has been show to exist in the US. And I'm not sure it does exist, particularly in China where information sharing even within the inner circles of government has likely been always much more controlled and limited.  Such documents on a scale and quality comparable to the US might just not be there even if someone wanted to leak them, and for a would-be rival to US governance capabilities in the world, that in itself can be a bigger embarrassment, and one harder to fix, than anything likely to be discovered in the content of such documents.
by santiago on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 12:53:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the civil justice system in China, especially in rural China, is very rudimentary, so...  It cost money to build and even more money, over time, to operate much of the governmental infrastructure we take for granted in North America and Europe. I strongly suspect that one of the reasons China and India can grow at the rates they have is that they are very selectively prioritizing the development of that infrastructure. Health care and retirement are another two areas with low priority compared to education, technology and manufacturing.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 02:09:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's something else too, which might be stopping wikileaks from leaking russian or chinese documents: these countries are rough, and I would not presume that they would refrain from physically eliminate the leaker.

Wikileaks is essentially a Western World issue: we're talking about preserving at home our freedom of speech and to control better our already (partially) controlled governments.

We're not talking about a country where you could get killed without warning for being a journalist, like China or Russia are, as well as many other countries around the world.

Today Assange's not dead.

by Xavier in Paris on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 03:49:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not that the USA or UK would be shy about a hit on Assange if they thought they could do so cleanly and really wanted him out of the way. But they also might calculate that his control freak nature is limiting the harm that could be done.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 11:02:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ARG, do you think he's a control freak? and if you do, do you think maybe what he's trying to control* may be the amount of damage done through useless, counter-productive secrecy, an area where some more control might be a Good Thing?

*in italian 'controllare' means 'to monitor, or check on', rather than the next step of actually affecting the dynamic. it's an interesting crack between languages, i find...

assange is checking on communication because he has fashioned the tools to do so, and feels it necessary that more citizens from all over better understand where their tax money is going, while valuable infrastructures are cannibalised for the money to further all sorts of games that the public should have the right to know about, if we are to believe the PR put out by hillary clinton and obama about modern transparent democracy.

he's a bit like early ralph nader, imo. consumer empowerment, except world diplomacy is his Pinto!

there are similarities... especially it's tendency to explode into regrettable new molecular arrangements, and if you extend the metaphor to include the global financial system as a parallel to the offending fuel tank.

your comment could also be parsed as his control-freakery being the fruits of the US' projection, rather than fact. i would be inclined to this view.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 09:14:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'afraid I have to disagree: There is a huge difference between the level of state violence against individuals in our countries and the one in, say, Russia, or any african country like Nigeria, Ivory Coast und so weiter...

I'm available to accept that our western countries are not perfect in this respect, but still the difference exists, and ignoring it is not, I feel, the best way to improve democracy and human right respect around the world.

by Xavier in Paris on Fri Dec 17th, 2010 at 09:00:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
leaking english-language documents are easily digested for the anglophone international media. dumping 250,000 documents in chinese would take a lot longer for anyone save the chinese/taiwanese/singaporean medias to grind through. what are the chances that most anglophone media corps even have chinese fluent translators on hand for something like that? hell, most barely even have foreign correspondents at all, these days.

it would be great if they could get a chinese or russian (or north korean!) docu dump like that, just because the reporting on those cuntries hardly ever has access to actual data in their reporting.

by wu ming on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:09:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by wu ming on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:10:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He's only dumped 1295 documents so far (the 250,000 is the number he has, not those that have been published). It wouldn't take that many translators to go through them at the speed that they are currently being published.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:19:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With a very small percentage of the cables published, a number of swedish politicians has egg on their faces and the opposition is calling for the resignation of the minister of justice. With a lot unpublished, ministers need to thread lightly in defending themselves to avoid future cables putting more egg there. The general defence is: we did not do it because the US told us to, we would have done it anyway.

This increases the cost side of the cost/benefit analyses for taking orders from the US. Thus decreasing the US influence.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 03:46:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That might be true only if most of a nation's policy elite didn't already know that American influence on national policy is so strong -- an assumption of naivete that is probably not true.  Otherwise the damage is about as bad as accidentally sending that embarrassing email about that co-worker you hate to that same co-worker, who likely already knows the truth but just avoided it. Embarrassing? Yes, but life goes on much the same as before in most cases.

What the cables make clear is what everyone here on ET has always been saying -- the the US is an empire and its allies are constituents, not equals.  The only thing new to most people from the cables is that it appears that the US is actually making an honestly good attempt at trying to be the world government -- one that few, if any, rivals would likely be able to match.

by santiago on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 04:20:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course the elite knows it, and any interested person does to, but the population at large is not supposed to know it. When the US says jump, the vassals ask how high and then tells their population that they just got the idea of jumping. And the last step is what makes it so embarrassing now, as opposition gets free shots at government and scores points. Of course if they get power they will still jump, but might not do so as fast or high as the risk has increased.

Of course there is the alternative of ramping up propaganda to cover up the distance between what was supposed to be and what has been presented. But that is also a cost.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 05:00:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
C'mon. The girl with the dragon tattoo? You don't think the Swedish general public is sufficiently cynical enough about power to be unsurprised that American diplomats aren't a player in Swedish policy? Basically the cables provide a way for cynics to confirm in their own minds what every spy novel printed since the War ended has used as background stage prop -- that America is a big country largely involved in running most of the world, sometimes poorly, but usually rather boringly. Which means it's not news that can change the dynamics of collective action.
by santiago on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 05:19:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clearly santiago is a CIA asset, trying to minimise any damage that Wikileaks might do :-)

As I write Wikileaks is being discussed on France 3's "Ce soir ou jamais". Then over on BBC they are reporting about the "Payback" attacks on Mastercard, etc. The media obviously don't agree with santiago's yawning response, they cover the latest releases on a daily basis. Is it going to fatally damage US power elite ? - no. Is it a welcome addition to the pressure on power elites - yes - and all on a budget less than any minor US right-wing think-tank. Maybe we should applaud the attention they've drawn to what the power elite say in private (even if some of it was already known or guessed at) and wait and see what else emerges - the releases are at a very early stage.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 06:23:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I ran across a site with some really good summaries of Assange's writing, which illustrate clearly what he saw as the hoped-for effect of making secret government much more difficult. I posted a link, but it was at the end of another diary- yours, I think, ted- but I was surprised and disappointed at the lack of response it got. Here it is again. It deserves a diary of it's own, but I'm out of time for that.
Note the blog owner's remark on his traffic.
Wow.

What's Assange really trying to do?

Santiago, I should not be so easily amazed, after all the years of wading through the edges of the ocean, that the rising tide of change from Wikileaks' seismic event would produce a tsunami of hysterical shrieking from some reactionary corners, and the view that it's all merely a small but, perhaps, interesting blip on a baseline of background noise from others. But I am.

How's THAT for mixed metaphor? ;-)
OK, so I cleaned it up. only two left. But the old version was so horrible it was funny.
It's late, and whimsy is a fragile performance art.

Here's a link to the original stuff.
Cryptome, and Assange's own words

I find his writing style oddly powerful- understated, cool yet deeply romantic in his hopes and aspirations.

Interesting man. And ZUNGUZUNGU is also well written, and interesting.

What say you all?  


Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 10:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's Assange really trying to do?  zunguzungu

Firstly we must understand what aspect of government or neocorporatist behavior we wish to change or remove.

This makes me wonder. If he really has information that would "take down" a major US bank, why has he prioritized release of that information as he has? Seems that he is stepping on toes while the head is vulnerable. Surely he understands who works for whom?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 02:28:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems to be that it is not only timing for market attention purposes, but a lot of time is being put into indexing and vetting documents. Each time he, and the ring of world-wide newspapers that he is working with, get better at the organizing.

I am late to this thread and topic, but one thing I haven't seen in electrons here is something the Daniel Ellsberg pointed out on Democracy Now; that these low level documents are showing that the low level people are doing their jobs, while the idiots above are doing the lying.  It is the lying that is damaging to the US future.

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 04:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
remote possibility dept.

he's giving them time to get their affairs in order?

if he has to watch his work done from behind bars, maybe he enjoys a bit of cat and mouse.

or he wants to pique the public appetite with savoury snacks before hitting them with the piece de resistance.

gutting the world financial system, by removing the illusion that international safety can be bought by buying US treasuries.

just like certain parties are gutting the euro, in an effort to sustain that same illusion...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 04:39:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I read the zunguzungu when you first posted it, and immediately mailed it to a few dozen like-minded friends. I received several immediate "Wow!" emails back.

I suggest you all do the same. That's some highly distilled understanding there, sort of a CliffNotes version.

Thanks for the link.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!

by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 02:10:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another thing strikes me-- that the life span of a story like the wikileaks thing needs to be carefully gauged and the releases managed to maximize it, if best effect is to be achieved. So far, so good.
I'll just bet you there was lots of discussion of this reality when Assange walked into the lion's den.
I hope they have lots of good ammo.  

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Thu Dec 9th, 2010 at 10:19:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you're missing my point. This is worse for anti-imperialists than merely downplaying the damage from the leaks to America. I'm arguing the leaks actually have to result in the opposite of their expected effect -- that they enhance American power at the expense of non-American actors.

Structurally, it is almost impossible for the continuous disclosure and media coverage of US diplomatic cables to result in anything other than a positive narrative for the the Pax Americana project for the simple reason that US diplomatic cables are written by American diplomats and contain negative disclosures about foreigners and not about Americans.  

This can result only in the reduced power of foreign actors, particularly rivals, relative to Americans, even if it makes it somewhat more uncomfortable, in the short term, for foreigners to be seen in domestic politics as having "taken orders" from America.  Why? Because America can only look competent and someone worthy of "taking orders from" in cables written by Americans themselves without any comparable secret documents from the non-American perspective.  And to the extent that "it's secret and therefore it must be true" effect plays into it, this dynamic can to be exaggerated n favor of American power.

It's a the classic "data censoring" problem familiar to ethnographers and sociologists that lead to the denigration of "journalism" among academics.  (The worst insult you can make to a sociologist is tot call a piece of his or work, "good journalism."  Americans aren't going to say bad things about themselves in these cables, so only non-American actors end up damaged overall.  

American actors only have to bear the costs, as has been argued in this thread, of the possibility of heightened non-American sensitivity to looking like American chumps.  But that can only matter at all if people have ever engaged with American power for any reasons other than necessity.  But we don't really believe that, do we?  Instead I think we believe that non-American political actors have always engaged with Americans only because they have too, not because they want to, and they will continue such engagement exactly as they have in the past -- only to the extent that they have to.

The disclosures, therefore, if they contain the same kinds of material we've seen to date, cannot possibly change anything in these relationships other than to weaken rivals' hands relative to American hands.

What we really needed was a secret document dump of what an American ally really thought about Americans, say from UK, or Japanese, diplomatic cables, if diminishing of US power was really the hoped-for the goal.
 

by santiago on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 02:20:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hence the most effective counter would be for "leaks" to Wikileaks to appear from Russian and Chinese sources that are damaging to US interests.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 02:31:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think a leak of European (union, or member state) documents might be very effective, too.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 02:56:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreeing with Migeru, an ally of the US would be better, for the reasons I've argued elsewhere in this thread -- that it is very likely that Russia or China would be more embarrassed by the paucity and poor quality of their own diplomatic cables relative to what has turned out to be very well written and engagingly honest documentation of the daily work of global governance in the American cables.  The Americans set a pretty high bar to meet in both volume and quality, as well as just being interesting to read.  

An ally, however doesn't have to compare with America as an alternative and likely has similar kinds of writing and documentation.  Furthermore, their critiques of Americans would be more credible than those of rivals, especially rivals like China or Russia with well established stereotypes of conflating propaganda and candor in the popular mind.

by santiago on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 03:26:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How much of a diplomatic presence has the EU had prior to 2010? It would be unseemly to leak the first few months of correspondence under these circumstances. But China and Russia have ongoing operations and they certainly have diplomats who can write excellent Russian or Chinese correspondence, even if they had to be a bit selective in what they released.

On another front, it might well turn out, per what Santiago has argued, that just as the US Military spends more that most of the rest of the world combined, so does our diplomatic corp, not to mention our intelligence operation. These are arguments for trimming those budgets along with anything else. I strongly suspect that we are way beyond the point of diminishing returns in these expenditures. Worse, as the US$ declines in significance as a reserve currency, the real cost of these operations will soar.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 04:01:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The European Commission has been a high-level interlocutor of the US for years, having a permanent delegation in Washington and participating in many many bilateral and multilateral meetings and summits, even without a "diplomatic corps" named as such.

In this case, you're taking the symbolic content of the Lisbon Treaty too seriously.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 04:05:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Americans set a pretty high bar to meet in both volume and quality, as well as just being interesting to read.

I have read some reactions by European diplomats to the effect that the leaks show what happens when your ambassadors are not professional diplomats (implying that the way the US uses embassies as sinecures for wealthy friends of the Administration results in poor quality and unprofessionalism - "this is gossip being reported, not what you want to see in a serious embassy dispatch").

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 04:03:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Having seen more than one arranged event of European embassies, I'm skeptical that they do anything much differently in that respect, but, again, that would be a reason that a document dump of an American ally's cables is what is most needed now to counter the positive effects on the US that I see coming their showcasing due to wikileaks.
by santiago on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 04:14:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, maybe Wikileaks could fund some of its operation by getting retainers from the black budgets of various nation's intelligence services.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 07:56:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's another possibility entirely.  Instead of "wikileaks" maybe the concept needs be be refined into something called "wikintelligence" -- something where amateur spies, intelligence agents, journalists, bloggers, etc., can develop their own assets and sources and provide investigative information on what are usually secret government and corporate activities in an open-source and publicly updated and corrected environment like wikipedia.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:18:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, Americans are much better than Europeans at organizing events, that's for sure...

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:59:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Instead I think we believe that non-American political actors have always engaged with Americans only because they have too, not because they want to, and they will continue such engagement exactly as they have in the past -- only to the extent that they have to.

I strongly disagree.  Ideological factors have always played a significant role.  And, while I'm not sure you're reading excludes this from 'necessity' there's the fairly common desire to play off one great power against another, or against a lesser power which is nonetheless perceived as a threat. Or to play to US off against domestic threats. Patron-client relationships are never one way streets and long term ones depend on genuine perceived benefits to the client, or at least those of the elites.  Pure threat based relationships tend to be fragile.

by MarekNYC on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 02:50:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not referring to threats but to interests and values -- necessity in the broader context. My mental model is that policy outcomes are the result of ongoing contests between rival, ideologically biased coalitions and that being seen as the tool of a foreign, imperial-like power carries higher costs than being seen as a partner of non-imperial power or of a rival to the imperial one. This can be given as a preference ranking.  Domestic coalitions prefer alliances with other domestic partners first, weaker foreign ones second, and very powerful foreign ones last of all.    

Ideology has little impact on this model.  In such a way of thinking about the world, which in no way excludes long term relationship maintenance considerations, the opportunities for a given coalition to be able to find a substitute for whatever they got from their American support before wikileaks has to very limited.  In fact, we can name what thost opportunities are: They are those coalitions with actors who portray themselves to be anti-American in public rhetoric but are in fact pro-American in secret.  That can't be a very big group of people in democratic societies, of which most American allies are.

by santiago on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 04:10:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, santiago, I find this rather simplistic; nobody expects US diplomatic cables to say anything bad about the US. But people do note obvious cases of hypocrisy, arrogance, duplicity and misleading the US and world public. They are also concerned about what's revealed about their own governments' collusion with the US.

Academics not liking their work compared to journalism has more to do with the the suggestion that their work is superficial and clearly not the product of prolonged, detailed study worthy of research grants.


The disclosures, therefore, if they contain the same kinds of material we've seen to date, cannot possibly change anything in these relationships other than to weaken rivals' hands relative to American hands.

Over-the-top, it will strengthen the hand of those in various countries who attack the US for arrogance, manipulation, etc.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 03:05:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do they really notice much hypocrisy?  That's one thing I don't see coming out at all. What we see in the cables are that American diplomats are documenting their jobs and their outlooks on the world about as exactly as American, liberal, capitalist society would expect them to.  Lots of documentation of duplicity among foreign politicians, but not much about American duplicity at all. Even the whole story about Clinton ordering observations of other UN diplomats is a non-starter because it doesn't contradict America's public values at all.  In the cables we really only see foreign actors saying one thing and doing another, and that's the problem.
by santiago on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 04:21:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Even the whole story about Clinton ordering observations of other UN diplomats is a non-starter because it doesn't contradict America's public values at all.

There's no way the US would want to be shown to be breaking international law and treaties they have signed, making their own criticism of others for doing so blatantly hypocritical:

A leading expert on UN law today said the proposed activity in the directive breached two international treaties and could lead to the US being censured by the UN general assembly or even, in extreme circumstances, prosecution at the international criminal court.

The targeting of diplomats from North Korea and the permanent representatives of the security council from China, Russia, France and the UK leaves the US government exposed to action from any of those countries.

Dapo Akande, lecturer in international law at Oxford University, said: "Obtaining passwords and information on communications systems violates the 1947 headquarters agreement between the US and UN and the general convention on the privileges and immunities of the United Nations.

"The only reason they can be asking for this information is to break into the communication systems or monitor them in some way."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/dec/02/wikileaks-cables-cia-united-nations



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 06:51:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not wanting it to be known, and being shown to be hypocritical are two different things. In this case, it appears that Clinton's cable has provided evidence of a possible, but still ambiguous, technical violation of international law.  But it also appears from the huge yawn from the public, even in countries with nominally anti-American leaders at present, that people distinguish between technicalities and true hypocrisy and haven't faulted Clinton or the US at all.  For someone in Venezuela, Argentina, or Bolivia, for example, the text of the document in question seems pretty tame and reasonable and not like spying at all, so it doesn't match the rhetoric of being a smoking gun of some sort. Some people like Assange, Chavez, and Morales have tried to make hay of the document, but so far it seems that neither political elites nor the public has become motivated by it any significant way.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 01:39:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You've obviously convinced yourself about this. But of course response to this is constrained by the power of the US and the fact that these are leaks so some doubt still surrounds them. But many people around the world will see this as further proof of US hypocrisy and the US is undoubtedly embarrassed by this. We'll have to wait for the leaked cables of other countries to see just how annoyed their govs really are and how more scornful they are of US talk of international law - even if it is no surprise to them .

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 02:15:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not convinced of anything.  I'm the skeptic in this whole thread, questioning the thesis of the diary that this whole event is both a big deal and portends bad outcomes for imperialists. When you think it through, it doesn't really seem to have much of either.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:59:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're not the sceptic, you're convinced that this does the US gov no harm and you continue to maintain this despite the facts that the media worldwide are giving this a lot of coverage and that right-wing Americans see it as so serious they think Assange should be assassinated. I think it is is obviously a major embarrassment, to say the least, and that we have to wait and see what else will be revealed , it's early days yet, especially to be rubbishing the whole thing as insignificant.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:12:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm convinced of no such thing.  I'm just pointing out that so far there doesn't appear to have been any significant political fallout at all, just a lot of media noise. And I'm arguing that very little likely can come of this for the simple fact that the leaked documents are written by American officials, often about foreign ridiculousness where headlines might be made of it, and by their biased nature are unlikely to contain anything pointing to unmitigated bad behavior on the part of Americans.

I would call this a minor embarrassment, as I said earlier, similar to sending a reply-to-all with content that embarrasses one person when you went to just reply to one.  We'll see if this really matters as this plays out, but I suggest not getting your hopes up too high.

by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:20:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
you continue to maintain this despite the facts that the media worldwide are giving this a lot of coverage and that right-wing Americans see it as so serious they think Assange should be assassinated.

It's a story with the hot marketing label of 'secrets you didn't know'.  It has lots of fun gossip.  It provides the opportunity to revisit a number of important issues and stories.  And it gives us an insight into the nitty-gritty of how the US runs its foreign policy on a day to day basis. There are previously unknkown details on broadly well known matters.  And yes, it is embarrassing.  So, both headline worthy, and ET discussion worthy. I'd call that significant, but far from worldshaking and utterly meaningless as a blow to US power.  

by MarekNYC on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:25:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, but then who is claiming it's fatal to US power ?

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:37:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm saying it's not only not fatal, it's not a blow at all.  If and when all the files get released the dump will be a very valuable resource for those foreign nations with the resources and desire to make us of it. However, if key allies and rivals have a better understanding of an important part of the US government, that will have beneficial as well as negative effects on US power.
by MarekNYC on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:42:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"I'm saying it's not only not fatal, it's not a blow at all."

Which is why so many leading right-wing US types have called for Assange's assassination and why the world's media are giving this extensive coverage. Why don't you just try modifying your claims a bit instead of taking this absurd extremist position.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 06:09:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If I'm to judge potential threat to the US power elite by US right wing freak out levels then I'm going to have to radically reassess Obama. I've already explained why I believe the media is giving this so much coverage.
by MarekNYC on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 06:37:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm the skeptic in this whole thread, questioning the thesis of the diary that this whole event is both a big deal and portends bad outcomes for imperialists

Eh? No. You haven't read the diary. I say that:
What is in the long run perhaps more important than the actual content of the leaked cables, or the revelations of atrocities uncovered and admitted in Iraq and Afghanistan, is the uncovering through its reflexive response, of what is practically a mechanism of internet control by powerful state and non-state actors.

What I'm saying is that the really scary part was the quick capitulation of companies on the backbone of web related services on questions of censorship, which now includes I'm told screening of emails by AOL for keywords wikileaks and AnonOps. And what I'm suggesting is that the fact that Anonymous took matters on their own geeky hands is a Good Thing and that steps have to be taken so that, in the future, alternative ways of existing and subsisting on the web should be developed.
I said nothing of imperialists.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 06:30:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Santiago,
The "huge yawn" exists only in your written lines here(and wherever else you write).
The truth is that the event you dismiss has created a tsunami of discussion all over the world, some of it quite heated.
Someone who has more time to burn than I could easily compile a chart of the top stories of the last month or so, and prove the real depth of public interest, but that's unnecessary, since every day brings another flood of media discussion, obviating the need to prove that the sun still rises in the East.
You are superficially convincing--but your basic theses are --silly.

But it also appears from the huge yawn from the public, even in countries with nominally anti-American leaders at present, that people distinguish between technicalities and true hypocrisy and haven't faulted Clinton or the US at all.

Do you really believe this?

On the other hand, I agree that parts of the cables lend an impression of veracity because of the mix of petulant posturing and professionalism. But that's strongly related to an old tactic that we all know well here-- mix in some reasonable-sounding truth with the crap. But had you read Assanges' words, or even the ZunguZungu link, it seems you might have been able put out a more credible effort. some here (perhaps many), have made ourselves familiar with his intentions and reasoning. He is not superficial, and what he's aiming to accomplish (and how) don't relate very much to the rest of your theses.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 08:41:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
nuanced arguments, santiago, but occam's razor would make the US the biggest target in cyberspace, with the biggest audience without need for translation.

it's not all about america anyway, it embarrasses the lickspittle pols like cameron and berlusconi who try and jack up their cred by kissing WH ass.

every squirm of humiliation for these arch-clowns should bting a corresponding shiver of delight to those who advocate for free(er) speech.

how can wikileaks not make diplomacy more honest, seeing how opaque and delusional most peeps' quisling leaders are revealed to be?

if you, like many others, feel that the collusion of corporate favouritism and brute force stemming (but not exclusive to) the US hegemon might as well be an international mafia, and russia was termed a mafia state, then the irony of putin nominating assange for the nobel should have added a healthy dose of iron to your newsdiet too...

:)


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 05:19:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Structurally, it is almost impossible for the continuous disclosure and media coverage of US diplomatic cables to result in anything other than a positive narrative for the the Pax Americana project for the simple reason that US diplomatic cables are written by American diplomats and contain negative disclosures about foreigners and not about Americans.

Most of those negative disclosures are, by their nature, about traitors who have been working for the Americans. Purging collaborators from the body politic does not strike me as gainful for the people they have been collaborating with.

Instead I think we believe that non-American political actors have always engaged with Americans only because they have too, not because they want to, and they will continue such engagement exactly as they have in the past -- only to the extent that they have to.

This is an overly optimistic assumption. The neoliberal far-right has always engaged with America because it served their domestic thirdworldization project. There is a real difference between traitors who wilfully collaborates with an empire and traitors who do it out of perceived necessity. Disclosure of collaboration is going to disproportionately hit the former. Who just happen (surprise, surprise) to be right-wingers.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 05:50:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, Santiago, you sure use "never" and "always" and "only" and such binary terms a lot. It detracts from your argument, because you're trying to establish rationally a matter of wildest guessing.

Diplomacy is well defined by the old saw "Diplomacy is saying "nice dog, nice dog" while searching desperately for a big stick" and still wishing not to hurt the dog more than necessary.

Read the George Lakoff diary on DailyKos. He nails it.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!

by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 02:14:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a fair criticism of my writing style. (Lot's of typos would be another.) Often I adopt it for sake of conciseness and clarity (and perhaps just laziness) in what has to be very short, quick thinking in a blog commentary discussion.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 01:42:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Take bit more time - sometimes less is more :-) Anyway, quick doesn't have to be simplistic :-)

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 02:22:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
santiago:

Structurally, it is almost impossible for the continuous disclosure and media coverage of US diplomatic cables to result in anything other than a positive narrative for the the Pax Americana project for the simple reason that US diplomatic cables are written by American diplomats and contain negative disclosures about foreigners and not about Americans.  

The more I think about this the less I agree with it. Every faction in the US government that wanted to push negative disclosures about foreigners out in the open already had ample opportunity to do so. The US media is chock full of court stenographers and from there any story will usually end up repeated in most of the western press. Loosing control of the news cycle is usually not a good thing.

by generic on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 10:26:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's not the point.  It is not in the US government's interest at all to have it's comments about others being made public, any more than it is in the interests of the neighborhood gossip to be outed as the neighborhood gossip.  However, it still remains true that what the neighborhood gossip says almost always turns out to be more damaging to the people being talked about than to the gossip herself.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:23:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Humans are built to gossip, in the opinion of the neurolinguists I'm reading, and it's an argument I'm inclined to agree with.

I iterate, since it seems not to be included in this discussion, that Assange's goal, clearly announced and detailed in "Conspiracy as Governance", is that this sort of revealing of the inner workings of a conspiracy tends to reduce functional efficiency of the conspiracy/government. That's all he wants, not the overthrow, but the lightening of the load for the governed.

To constantly accuse him of devolutionary tactics doesn't reflect well on the accusers, since he specifically pre-responds to such attacks.

I suspect he's a hell of a chess player.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!

by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:23:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing to see here, folks. Nothing to see. Move along, now.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 08:48:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the last step is what makes it so embarrassing now, as opposition gets free shots at government and scores points

In Spain both the opposition and the government are being smeared, as there are also cables documenting the US contacts with the opposition, which they patently like more than the government, and how the opposition figures share internal party matters freely with the US diplomats.

But, when everyone has egg on their face, nobody does...

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 03:11:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When everyone has egg on their face, everyone still does, and maybe a little humility and reflection occur... at least while they're shame-facedly wiping it off.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!
by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:25:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When everyone has egg on their face, nobody does because egg can no longer swing votes at the next election.

What it will do is turn voters off.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 03:17:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As long as intelligent and well-informed voters turn away from voting, then that much longer and stronger will grow the tentacles of the new corporation/state/conspiracy.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!
by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Mon Dec 20th, 2010 at 12:32:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think people are THAT overwhelmed if the Vice-presidency of Bolivia is anything to go by. Álvaro García Linera, has made the wikileaks cables available through the Bolivian government's vicepresidential website, commenting that:
The empire, in the name of diplomacy, is committing third-class espionage -- lamentable for a serious country, and lamentable and decadent for an empire.   The reason [for making the WikiLeaks cables available] is to show the public the quality of an empire which -- there's no doubt about it -- is entering into a gradual, but increasingly rapid, political decline.


The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 11:38:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's what I mean. It's not overwhelming at all, so let's not exaggerate the importance of this event or of the Internet war between pro- and anti-wikileaks hackers that is going on.  The fact that an anti-American Morales administration would try to publicize documents about America's opposition to his faction is an example of wikileaks resulting in no change.  What we would want to see as evidence that wikileaks has diminished US power is a change in power of a US ally that comes from it, not a continuation of the same thing.
by santiago on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 04:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This ain't a chemistry experiment in a lab.

It's geoPolitik, and it's very very hard.

It's an art, and Assange is an artist.

Read Assange's "Conspiracy as Government."

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!

by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 02:17:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree that it's an art and that Assange is trying to be an artist, and I admire him for trying to engage in it in a novel way.  He's a hero by any definition of the word.  However, that doesn't mean he's not in way over his head, and his writings on the topic make me think that he is.  He seems to be certain of a particularly cynical model of the world that it's the secret police who are really running things, without allowing for the possibility that the real world, and the basis for empires like the US and its predecessors to come into being, might be a lot more complicated and ambiguous than that.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:01:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I interpret his writing more against secrecy in general, rather than any particular actor in organized secrecy. It is the opacity in the transactions of the elite compared to the increasing forced transparency of our own lives that Assange is banging on about. It's about correcting that imbalance. That, to me, is not ambiguous or complicated at all.

Of course I mean transactions in the broader sense of anything transferred between actors, not just the financial exchanges.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:21:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd add that the best transformation of all, giving hope to human society, would be if absolutely everything was totally transparent.

An impossible dream, of course. But thinking about how such transparency could affect corporations, governments, religions, football teams, the espionage industry, patents, crime rates etc boggles the mind.

It could be a script for a bad movie, except Ricky Gervais has already gone off half-cock on it.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:29:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that's the case.  Should everyone know that the CEO of a prominent corporation has a homosexual lover in addition to a spouse from a royal family?  Should they know that about you or me?
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:38:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. You're presuming instantaneous transformation, once again trying, I suppose, to defend your thesis that Assange is naive. I would dearly love to hear you debate him. Have you READ any of his deeper works?

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!
by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:31:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, that's the I interpret it too.  Like the quip from the poet W.H. Auden that Shelley was wrong about poets being "the unacknowledged legislators of the world."  That in fact it's the secret police who are.

But that might just not be true after all. It might instead be the case that secrets protect personal vices and failings of individual mortals much more than they protect the interests of the powerful as a class.

by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:35:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it actually is true.

That wasn't so hard now, was it?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:47:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It might be.  It might not.  
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 01:26:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it is.

It is because anyone with a brain can see that there's nothing in Wikileaks that embarrasses rich individuals in the US - but there's been a lot (less than one might hope, but still a lot) that embarrasses the MIC in general.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:14:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't really see anything particularly embarrassing to the MIC even in general, can you?  Again, the embarrassment seems to fall on non-Americans, and the MIC seems to come off as relatively boring professionals observing the occasional ridiculousness or hypocrisy of foreign politicians.  The only thing embarrassing to the US is that they couldn't keep this material under wraps, not that they produced the material.  That's pretty minor stuff.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:42:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Something like this?
WikiLeaks: Texas Company Helped Pimp Little Boys To Stoned Afghan Cops - Houston News - Hair Balls

Many of DynCorp's employees are ex-Green Berets and veterans of other elite units, and the company was commissioned by the US government to provide training for the Afghani police. According to most reports, over 95 percent of its $2 billion annual revenue comes from US taxpayers.

And in Kunduz province, according to the leaked cable, that money was flowing to drug dealers and pimps. Pimps of children, to be more precise. (The exact type of drug was never specified.)

by generic on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:59:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, actually, especially since this was an already reported story. This is what the cable actually says about the case, obviously documenting how American officials reacted to the event by making changes and punishing the people involved, exactly what you would expect Americans to do given their public values and not what many people have learned to expect from their own governments reactions:  

4. (C) On June 23, Assistant Ambassador Mussomeli met with MOI Minister Hanif Atmar on a number of issues, beginning with the April 11 Kunduz RTC DynCorp investigation. Amb Mussomeli opened that the incident deeply upset us and we took strong steps in response. An investigation is on-going, disciplinary actions were taken against DynCorp leaders in Afghanistan, we are also aware of proposals for new procedures, such as stationing a military officer at RTCs, that have been introduced for consideration.
emphasis mine

The bulk cables so far are filled with this kind of stuff -- Americans apparently acting responsibly even when bad things have happened. There's nothing so far in any of this that has US officials documenting their own intentions to do anything outrageously wrong. Just of American diplomats trying to pick up the pieces of other people doing bad things, the vast majority of those things done by non-Americans so far.

by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:12:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well no. It makes the diplomats look comparably good, but at the expanse the contractors. That is hardly an overall plus for the Americans.
by generic on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:57:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But it's not an overall negative either, which is what the documents actually have to show to be able to have a deleterious effect on US power.  It's just another crime story, with the good guys (US diplomats in this case) doing a good job in the end and providing an example to others what they should be expecting of their own governments.
by santiago on Tue Dec 14th, 2010 at 01:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the context of this discussion, there is no ruling class.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!
by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:32:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It might instead be the case that secrets protect personal vices and failings of individual mortals much more than they protect the interests of the powerful as a class.

But the monetary and political value of of what is protected is very highly asymmetrical. It is the difference between protecting the location of a fallen penny vs. the location of tons of gold.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 10:44:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sven Triloqvist:
It is the opacity in the transactions of the elite compared to the increasing forced transparency of our own lives

thanks for getting to the kernel in one sentence...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 09:26:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, yes. They told me, "Just wait till you get your next clearance. Then you'll understand."

So I waited, and I got it, and then I read, and I read, and I learned, and now I know.
"They" is real, and "They" were lying through their teeth, and they made a life's work of it, till they themselves did not know what the truth was, and till the truth came to be whatever their masters told them to sell.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 08:58:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We now have names and addresses of a large number of collaborators. Some of those collaborators will have to stand for re-election. Played right, these revelations would be a massive difference in an election campaign. "The FDP is a fifth column working for the Americans" is a conspiracy theory. A list of named FDP politicians functioning as spies for the American consulate is a fact.

Even if the cables accomplish nothing else, branding a handful of extremist Atlanticists and neoliberals (funny how those tend to go together) as traitors will make it all worthwhile.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 05:40:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It could, for what I suspect is the small subset of collaborators who are anti-American in public but pro-American in secret and who happen to live in places where that actually matters.  I don't think that can possibly be a big set of people in what is now a pretty open world with respect to what people can say in public and do in private on policy matters.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:04:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a difference between being pro-Soviet and being a Soviet spy.

There is an even greater difference between being pro-American and being an American spy, because the pro-American politicians are usually found in alliances with nationalists. To a nationalist, favouring an alliance with the US is one thing; betraying your national interest to the US is quite different.

Played right, this is a wedge that can be hammered into the far-right coalition of neoliberals and nationalists. That was always an uncomfortable coalition in the first place, since the nationalists are in large part a reaction against the neoliberal thirdworldisation project.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 06:50:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not the difference between spy and supporter that I'm talking about.  What I am referring to are the possibilities for leaders to actually be perceived as betraying the values of their constituents by being outed as collaborating more closely with American diplomats than might have previously been thought. In order for this to matter, such collaboration has to be viewed pretty negatively by one's supporters, and I'm suggesting that, except in a few cases where being anti-American was an important, coalition-unifying value, collaboration is just as likely to viewed positively as negatively by groups with largely neo-liberal views.

That's pretty much what's coming out in the cables so far -- US diplomats support neo-liberals and aren't involved in much deceit around that at all.  US diplomats practice in private what they preach in public and seek to collaborate with political actors of like minds generally.  

There aren't a lot of anti-American nationalists with pro-American policy stances to be affected by this anymore, so it just seems the opportunities for playing this right are rather limited.  

by santiago on Mon Dec 13th, 2010 at 02:17:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The point is not that the supporters of neoliberal policies are anti-American, the point is that neoliberals never have an outright majority, because anybody with an IQ above his income distribution percentile can tell that their policies are shit. Neoliberals tend to be junior partners in neoliberal-nationalist coalitions. The nationalists trade economic policy to the neolibs, and the neolibs indulge in a little racist provincialism on the side.

Now, the nationalists may be Atlanticist to a fault, particularly since the Americans started bragging about their "bomb brown people for fun and profit" policy. But that doesn't mean that they are willing to accept subservience the way neolibs are.

I'm not suggesting that this fracture line is going to tear any coalition apart on its own. It will require deliberate, concentrated propaganda from their political enemies. Because the leadership of both the racists and the neolibs are well aware that they'll either hang together or hang separately. But the nationalist base should be vulnerable to Cablegate-based agit-prop.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Dec 13th, 2010 at 02:44:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, there is likely to be a limit to how much damage uncovering secrets can do.  If the thesis is true that the US has been too aggressive in classifying information as secret or confidential, it means, by definition, that exposing those secrets cannot be of much consequence to the system as whole, even if some individuals get embarrassed by it.

That's not the point. The point is that the institutional and psychological logic that led to the cables being classified in the first place will almost certainly lead to greater secrecy: More restrictions on who get to access diplomatic dispatches, less trust between superiors and subordinates, fewer people who have the data necessary to cross-reference subjects - in short, more paperwork for the same organisational structure.

This is the real cost, not the momentary embarrassment of the releases, or the loss - however significant it may turn out to be - of key Quislings in their client states.

If the US administration were perfectly rational and always acted in its own best interest, this effect would be minor. Because a rational actor acting in its own best long-term interest would calmly evaluate the harm of the occasional leak against the harm from constricting the flow of information through the organisation. But the US administration is not a rational actor, perfect or otherwise, as its handling of "terrorism" demonstrates. It is very much prone to overreacting to insignificant provocations.

By way of comparison, a spectacular, but in any rational analysis largely insignificant, bombing of a commercial office building derailed the American empire's war schedule for about a year (Iraq would in all probability have been hit in early 2002 rather than 2003 if they hadn't needed to go through the motions of bombing Afghanistan), got the empire bogged down in a different war than the one it originally wanted to fight (and where it's going to lose, just as every other empire has in that country), got the empire to waste millions of man-hours on phoney "security" measures, and created an atmosphere of paranoia that makes the bulk of the imperial bureaucracy incapable of reality-based threat assessment.

Pretty impressive results for twelve dudes and a couple of box cutters, eh?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Dec 10th, 2010 at 06:08:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just like the results (so far!) of that dude and his $35 domain name...

Is Gibbs really that unaware of how the Intertubes work?

Assange clearly lays out the internal strangulation of an exposed conspiracy.

And he writes very very well.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!

by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 02:22:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First, I'm not sure that it will really lead to much change.  But even if it does, it doesn't really change much.  The change is similar to the difficulty one has in the office when the IT staff puts more and more of that annoying security and monitoring software on company laptops.  It makes it more bothersome to do work and takes away some of the advantages of information technology, but it really doesn't change the game very much at all.

But yes, it is completely true that the government could overreact entirely to the whole matter and become that much more fascist in nature.  Is that really Assange's goal? To be a non-violent Osama bin Laden?  If so, it sounds pretty cool just as an idea for something neat to do with one's life, but I suspect that its potential effects are probably pretty limited.  

by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:09:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Generally, it's a good rule of systems theory that imposition of control equals escalation of chaos.

Fascist organisations never last long. They're inherently self-destructive and unstable - economically, politically, militarily and psychologically.

There may be an attempt at a short term backlash, but unless the Internets are shut down in their entirety, the principle - that government should be transparent and accountable - is going to be harder to eliminate as a political influence.

Even without Assange, the principle has already gone viral. So you now have a generation of teenagers with excellent hacking skills, no jobs, no prospects, and a real problem with the authorities that took away their future.

This is not going to end well for the fascists.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:53:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Transparency and accountability are two different, and not necessarily related, things. And just because the fascist tendencies of some to react to something like wikileaks may lead to attempts to impose control, it doesn't mean that those attempts have to be any more effective at changing things than the wikileaks scandal itself has.

I hope it doesn't end well for the fascists, but that can be entirely different question than ending well for the whole "Pax Americana" project of which fascism is but one faction among many and not necessarily a critical one.

by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 01:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US was the only country after WWII to seek out and welcome former Nazis, not a few of whom were given high ranking jobs in the US establishment.

It has also promoted covert and overt fascism in countries around the planet for most of the post-War period, run death squads, managed torture training schools, assassinated individuals, infiltrated groups, and subverted real democracy.

When you strip away the wrapper, the US is fascism. It's economic fascism rather than ethnic fascism - although it's not as if the US is averse to ethnic fascism too.

But it is what it is. And it will continue being what it is, more or less overtly, until it self-immolates.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:21:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You've just gotten into pure Jonah Goldberg territory.  
by MarekNYC on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:42:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

An association is not an argument.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What does 'economic fascism' even mean?  It's not like the US ruling elites' economic ideology is anything like that of fascism, nor is the US economy structured or run anything like a fascist one.  And it's been getting further away at a steady pace over the past thirty years.  You're you're using fascism as an epithet shorn of any actual meaning.  Imperialist neoliberalism is just that, it's not fascism anymore than it is communism or feudalism or any other unpleasant historical political system/ideology.
by MarekNYC on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:17:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Economic fascism is the economic equivalent of racism. It's based on the assumption that the poor are inferior, contemptible and disposable, while the rich are inherently worthy and deserving.

There's a strong element of racism embedded in the US version. Not only are Latinos and blacks inherently inferior, but so is anyone outside the US.

But really, it's all about the superiority and entitlement of the rich, against all comers.

As a result the US scores badly on most civilised measures of social quality, and when it has one of its periodic breakdowns the population gets slaughtered.

For example, around 7.5 million people died in the 1930s Depression. Tens of millions have been murdered for profit elsewhere in the world since WWII - Iraq and Afghanistan being the latest in a long series of corporate welfare actions against the rest of the world that have provided no benefit for 98% of the home population.

That's economic fascism.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:46:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Again, what does this have to do with fascism?  What you're describing is the warmed over version of nineteenth century classical liberalism, an ideology which fascists hated.  Actual fascists didn't believe that the poor are disposable. On the contrary, the fascist state wanted to bind them into unified hierarchical ethno-national community through various organizations, e.g. party/state run unions, party/state run hobby clubs, party/state run youth groups, party/state run sports organizations, etc. and offering a faint hope of social mobility through participation in the hierarchical mass party organization(s). Furthermore it also sought to establish a basic minimal standard of living with a welfare state and, insofar as possible, stable employment.  Of the major powers in the world today, China is closest to the fascist model.
by MarekNYC on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 06:05:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Glad to see someone getting a little closer to fascism, which already had a definition, despite the gleeful misuse of the term, exceeded only by misuse of anti-semitism and racism.

Fascism is state/corporate alliance, and the USA definitely fits that. Mussolini saw it coming.

"according to corporatist perspectives, values, and systems, including the political system and the economy."

Refresh your memory: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!

by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:38:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fascism was certainly strongly corporatist in theory, and offered a good degree of skewed corporatism in practice, but I don't see it in the US. Keeping in mind, of course, that the meaning of 'corporation' here is a little bit different.  The AMA, ABA, and NASB are corporations, and the NLRB is a corporatist institution. Haliburton and Microsoft, on the other hand, are not corporations.
by MarekNYC on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 10:55:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Word-chopping, I think.

Corporations and rich individuals set the limits for legislation.

That's Mussolini fascism.

What's good for -General Motors- the MIC is good for the country.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!

by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Mon Dec 20th, 2010 at 12:37:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's possibly true also that the people who get a boner from being in a hierarchic system, are the same senior managers who don't understand code. Whereas the hackers have often been involved in creating that code - in their day job - or code like it. This is the corporate elites' mistake in accepting a Trojan Horse into the very heart of business today - data transfer.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 03:23:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Worse than that - you really don't want to be relying on technology against an angry population that can hack, create code, understands electronics, and grew up thinking that information wants to be free.

This is going to get a lot more colourful than it has already.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In my experience I've found that more code-writers seem to "get boners" from being given a responsible position such as "network security" in a hierarchical system than virtually any other subset of the population, senior managers included. For example, it would be interesting to see a demographic breakout of the Tea Party movement in the US. I know in my company they're all down in the IT department. It's become an inside joke.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:55:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obviously this leaves out a lot of disaffecetd but quite skilled people.  You're aways (well, almost always :-)) trying to to reduce it some supposedly simple situation.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:19:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps, but we shouldn't assume that because programmers might look like rebels and talk like them in hacker chat rooms, that they actually are.  I'm suggesting that by observing what actually goes on in network security policy and that whole industry, the evidence might just as well support a view that the rebels among them are relatively few.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:26:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure.

And Visa, Mastercard and PayPal were taken down by happy rainbow elves from Venus.

It doesn't matter how many rebels exist - especially with botnets. Just as it doesn't matter that Julian Assange is in jail.

Technology is the ultimate force multiplier. Numbers don't matter. Effects do.

And taking down the main means of exchange for the population is an effect you'd have to be pretty damn blind to ignore.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:38:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh come on, mastercard attacked, visa attacked, amazon attacked, Swedish lawyer for Assange's accusers attacked, etc. You just see what supports your dubious general claim.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 05:40:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I see a lot of hackers messing around on the Internet and making some noise but nothing of any material consequence so far.  I see some hackers supporting Assange by going after Amazon, and I see a lot of other hackers going after Assange's operation too.  It doesn't look at all like the programmer community is outraged by "the Man."  It looks instead like a few people making news by blowing smoke at each other and and not much else. If you weren't paying attention to the story, you would have noticed nothing in your own life.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 06:01:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"If you weren't paying attention to the story, you would have noticed nothing in your own life."

You don't have to pay attention to the story, the media are giving it widespread coverage - oh, I know, they're all wrong and you are the oracle for this this issue - about as convincing as Greenspan was.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 06:13:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Just because the media prints something means it matters? No, what has anything in this whole affair changed regarding people's lives?  Has people, for example, lost their jobs because of this yet?  Not even Mastercard's or Visa's actual payment processing work was materially affected, for example, so unless you were trying to access their website for the brief period it was attacked, you probably didn't notice anything. Payments went on all over the world as before. The "System" worked, is one way to interpret this.

It seems, therefore, that hacking may be substantially limited in its actual social impact.  I mean, this is the biggest deal in hacking so far, so where's the beef?

by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 06:23:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Organized crime sure love them some hacking. Read the figures lately on how much actual cash is being stolen right now at ATMs and gas pumps, restaurants and supermarkets by hackers who print out a few thousand credit cards with stolen numbers, and do a coordinated attack?

You are aware, perhaps, that a huge amount of internet traffic is botnet activity?

I actually tried to get into Visa to get some card information. Very annoying, and to a normal citizen, kinda worrying. Money's a little short these days, and the prospect of having it stolen really lights up the alarm circuitry in the brain.

I smell contrarian trolling here.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!

by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:45:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You need to stop seeing it in either/or, B/W terms, total success or complete failure:


Most interesting of all, Babbage over at The Economist dives into the world of the protesters, describes their methods and finds:

Anons do understand their limitations. The ones I talked to know that to take down a Swedish prosecutor's website does not halt the prosecution in Sweden. They described their motivations, variously, as trying "to raise awareness", "to show the prosecutor that we have the ability to act" and "damage and attention". This is all that a denial-of-service attack can do: register protest. It is not cyberwar. It is a propaganda coup. And it's limited to a limited set of websites: vulnerable, but important.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/12/10/131965549/are-wikileaks-supporters-peaceful-protester s-for-the-digital-age



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 04:56:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"While it is indeed possible that Anonymous may not have been able to take Amazon.com down in a DDoS attack, this is not the only reason the attack never occurred," read the document.

"After the attack was so advertised in the media, we felt that it would affect people such as consumers in a negative way and make them feel threatened by Anonymous. Simply put, attacking a major online retailer when people are buying presents for their loved ones would be in bad taste."

Instead, the attack was re-directed towards Paypal and its computer systems, which, according to a status page, have intermittently suffered "performance issues" ever since.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-11971259

So that's why I couldn't make a payment for a local comedy club :-)


Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 05:06:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're interpreting a  black/white either/or message from my comments when none has been given by me. My argument has been consistent and moderate throughout these threads -- this looks kinda neat, but it really isn't that big of an event in the scheme of things. If you're taking something else away from what I've said, you're probably reading too much of your own biases into it, or my writing is just that bad, or both.
by santiago on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:04:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Yeah, I see a lot of hackers messing around on the Internet and making some noise but NOTHING of any material consequence so far.

... It looks instead like a FEW people making news by blowing smoke at each other and and not much else.

The Swedish prosecution authority has confirmed its website was attacked last night and this morning. MasterCard was partially paralysed today in revenge for the payment network's decision to cease taking donations to WikiLeaks.

...
Attempts to access www.mastercard.com have been unsuccessful since shortly after 9.30am.

The site would say only that it was "experiencing heavy traffic on its external corporate website" but insisted this would not interfere with its ability to process transactions.

But one payment service company told the BBC its customers were experiencing "a complete loss of service" on MasterCard SecureCode. The credit card company later confirmed that loss.
...
Visa customers are contacting us in masses to confirm that they really donate and they are not happy about Visa rejecting them. It is obvious that Visa is under political pressure to close us down."

Earlier, PayPal, which has also been the subject of technological attack since it suspended payments to WikiLeaks last week, appeared to admit that it had taken the step after an intervention from the US state department.

...
According to bloggers monitoring the cyber attacks, those involved in the protests have also been targeting the websites of US senator Joe Lieberman, who is an outspoken critic of WikiLeaks, and Sarah Palin, who said Assange should be treated like a terrorist.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/dec/08/operation-payback-mastercard-website-wikileaks



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 03:20:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Websites being knocked down doesn't mean anything other than a minor, overhead budget item in any of these places has been affected.  Google getting knocked down -- big deal for Google.  Mastercard.com getting knocked down -- inconsequential deal for Mastercard.

All the more reason to resist any effort to change much regarding policy around information and network security.  The "system" seems to work pretty well for corporate and government actors as it is.

by santiago on Mon Dec 13th, 2010 at 02:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More of your over-the-top requirements; unless "the 'system'" is immediately brought to its knees what happening is totally insignificant. There are more nuanced opinions about this and it is just the beginning:

The initial attacks against the Swiss PostFinance required about 200 computers, according to one Anonymous source. Yet within a day hackers were able to recruit thousands more pro-WikiLeaks footsoldiers. By the time the Visa and Mastercard websites were disrupted last Wednesday, close to 3,000 computers were involved.

Anonymous leaders began distributing software tools to allow anyone with a computer to join Payback. So far more than 9,000 users in the US have downloaded the software; in second place is the UK with 3,000. Germany, the Netherlands, Canada, France, Spain, Poland, Russia and Australia follow with more than 1,000.
...
A major test of Payback's mounting firepower will be Amazon, given the size of its servers. The attempt to attack the site last Thursday was half-hearted, but nevertheless audacious. Now sources estimate they would need between 30,000 and 40,000 computers to hurt Amazon and there is a growing feeling among hacktivists that it could happen. If it does, the retailer could lose millions of dollars during the Christmas season.

So far, though, most of the attacks have been principally designed to register protest rather than destabilise companies financially, opting for their public websites rather than their underlying infrastructure.

...

Evgeny Morozov, author of The Net Delusion, a book which argues the internet has failed to democraticise the world successfully, believes the attacks are already viewed by Washington "as striking at the very heart of the global economy".

Another emerging target in the weeks ahead is the US government itself. For a brief time last Tuesday, senate.gov - the website of every US senator - went down. Cyberguerillas claim it is a possible sign of things to come.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010/dec/11/wikileaks-backlash-cyber-war



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Mon Dec 13th, 2010 at 05:58:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So far, though, most of the attacks have been principally designed to register protest rather than destabilise companies financially, opting for their public websites rather than their underlying infrastructure.

Pretty much says it all. What's holding everyone back?  

by santiago on Mon Dec 13th, 2010 at 06:27:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"says it all" - says it all about your absurdly simplistic and negative view. The article makes it quite clear what's "holding them back", e.g; they're just getting going and adding recruits all the time:

A major test of Payback's mounting firepower will be Amazon, given the size of its servers. The attempt to attack the site last Thursday was half-hearted, but nevertheless audacious. Now sources estimate they would need between 30,000 and 40,000 computers to hurt Amazon and there is a growing feeling among hacktivists that it could happen. If it does, the retailer could lose millions of dollars during the Christmas season.



Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Mon Dec 13th, 2010 at 07:04:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

REUTERS - More cyber attacks in retaliation for attempts to block the WikiLeaks website are likely in a  "data war" to protect Internet freedom, a representative of one of the groups involved said on Thursday.

Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet said the Swedish government's website was down for a short time overnight in the latest apparent attack. Sweden has issued an arrest warrant for WikiLeaks' founder Julian Assange over sex crimes and he is in jail in London, awaiting an extradition hearing.

....
"Anonymous has targeted mainly companies which have decided for whatever reason not to deal with WikiLeaks. Some of the main targets involve Amazon, MasterCard, Visa and PayPal," a spokesman calling himself "Coldblood" told BBC Radio 4.

"The campaign is not over from what I've seen, it's still going strong. More people are joining, more and more people are downloading the voluntary botnet tool which allows people to command dos (distributed denial of service) attacks," he added.

The speaker, who had an English accent, said he was aged 22 and was a software engineer.

http://www.france24.com/en/20101209-hackers-cyber-attacks-support-wikileaks-mastercard-visa-sweden


 

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Dec 14th, 2010 at 04:14:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, what's holding people back is that affecting anything other than neato, PR billboards known as corporate websites takes a lot more than just a DDOS botnet tool.  So far all we are seeing is a spray painting party, and that's apparently all that is being envisioned by the vast majority of people involved in it.  Not much beyond taking down someone's website for a few hours.  Sounds pretty radical. Watch out.
by santiago on Tue Dec 14th, 2010 at 10:09:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm watching - all you're doing is spray-painting cynicism.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Dec 14th, 2010 at 10:28:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DDOSing Amazon's websites would be significant for their revenues, if they can keep up the pressure for a couple of weeks.

DDOSing VISA or Mastercard actual payment infrastructure? Forget it - that infrastructure could survive a nuclear war. Oh, and it would be a PR disaster to attack the payment clearing system. Too much collateral damage.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Dec 15th, 2010 at 02:44:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about this?

Reykjavik Grapevine: Parliament Committee Calls Ban on Wikileaks "Harsh Operation on Freedom of Expression"

Numerous interested parties met with the committee today, among them electronic payment companies Valitor and Borgun, both of whom work with Visa and Mastercard. Also in attendance were The Consumer's Alliance, Amnesty International and, via conference call, Wikileaks spokesman Kristinn Hrafnsson.

Róbert Marshall, the chairman of the committee, told mbl.is, "People wanted to know on what legal grounds the ban was taken, but no one could answer it. They said this decision was taken by foreign sources." Valitor and Borgun have emphasized that the matter is not in their hands.

The committee has asked for more information from these companies, however, to prove that there are legal grounds for banning cardholders from donating money to an organisation such as Wikileaks. Amnesty International said that they were very concerned at the precedent the ban sets with regards to human rights.



Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 15th, 2010 at 02:53:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We need a European-based international clearing infrastructure. Because clearly we can't trust New York-based ones...

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Dec 15th, 2010 at 03:32:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Tell us about Dankort.

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 15th, 2010 at 03:53:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Only works in Denmark. Maybe it will end up integrated with a Norwegian equivalent, if such exists, now that PBS has merged with a big Norwegian firm.

They have a deal with Visa, so most cards are dual Visa/Dankort - when you're on PBS' own net, they work as Dankort; when you're outside the PBS net, they work as Visa cards.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Dec 15th, 2010 at 04:05:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But is it effective? Could we have a EuroCard based on its model?

Of all the ways of organizing banking, the worst is the one we have today — Mervyn King, 25 October 2010
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 15th, 2010 at 04:08:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's really just a bog standard debit card - the only remarkable thing about it is that it has a near monopoly. Oh, and there are some legal caps on the fees that banks and providers can charge, and some rules about who they can charge them from (only from businesses, not individuals, on the theory that businesses tend to notice earlier if they're getting shafted).

Now, plastic cards are fairly heavily regulated in Denmark, to prevent consumers from being ripped off. But that's a feature of Danish consumer protection law, not a feature of the Dankort system.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Dec 15th, 2010 at 04:22:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You are presumably describing only the situation in the USA, where the false 'American Dream', that TBG describes so colourfully, is a pandemic disease. You underestimate the increasing contempt in the rest of the world for corporatized America and her actions - especially, I note, among the Finnish and Russian top coders that I hear about.

The DDOS attacks are merely low-tech warning shots - and rallying cries. They don't represent the full technical capabilities of the hardline hackers.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:59:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You might be right, but we have little to go on here other than what has been done so far.  Have we actually seen that programmers in other parts of the world are less likely to take down their outlaw peers in Russia, Finland or anywhere else than they appear to be in the US? I don't really see programmers being anything that can be described as a class in other words -- I don't see much evidence that they identify more with others of their skill set than with others of their socio-cultural ideology outside of programming. Like other people, they appear to be either fascists or anarchists or something else first, and programmers second, same as journalists, waiters, or soldiers.  But that's where we'd have to look for evidence of the kind of thing you are suggesting.
by santiago on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:12:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Take a good look at China, you don't need to shut down the internet.  
by MarekNYC on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:44:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am happy to applaud your comment, TBG.

It sometimes happens that a good diary gets hijacked- pushed or pulled into a bumpy detour, away from a valuable topic into some unproductive ditch--wrangling about the pimples on a gnat's ass. One wants to shout, "But what about the real stuff? What about some discussion on what the man has written?"
On the other hand, sometimes the detour wanders across some good landscape itself.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 09:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First, I'm not sure that it will really lead to much change. But even if it does, it doesn't really change much. The change is similar to the difficulty one has in the office when the IT staff puts more and more of that annoying security and monitoring software on company laptops.

That's an aspect of the cost, of course. But I don't really believe that the US State Department is lacking in crypto at this point. The security breach was almost certainly on the wetware end, not on the hardware or software ends. That means that to close the security hole, you'll have to restrict wetware access. That's different in kind from annoying, overly paranoid security features on your corporate intranet, in the same way that cutting a computer off from the internet is different in kind from installing a more paranoid firewall.

And if they don't close the security hole, they'll be hit again. And again. Until they do close the hole, or stop pretending that those communications are secret in the first place. The latter would be rational, but the former is more in line with the institutional attitude in the foreign policy biz.

Is that really Assange's goal? To be a non-violent Osama bin Laden?

I think "Cyber-Che" was a more apt description of the aspiration, and Cyber-RAF would be a more fitting analogy in terms of tactics and effects.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 07:11:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What bothers me is that no matter what information leaks /no matter of what crimes / no one will ever be held responsible in accordance to law.
We, public, are so used to crimes of all sorts not being punished because of national interest / and USA interest in eyes of western public must be our own, we are western civilization /. So as nothing will actually happen from these leaks in accordance to law, no matter what crimes they may leak I am suspicious that those leaks are actually manipulated by USA to show that public should not bother with those / and more serious / leaks except for entertainment. As right now we are watching democracy going down the toilet by incredible amount of businesses denying Wikileaks their services for practically no reason /they are not charged as yet of anything about their work / but because they are told by USA to do so , USA is showing off their power...so it's good for them. Embarrassment for non professional diplomatic works...like they know about shame after all we have seen in last decade...I don't think so...


Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein
by vbo on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 06:51:47 AM EST
True, but we don't actually know who is propagating the anti-wikileaks activities.  It could easily be private hackers who are just taking advantage of the scandal to engage in illegal, but not necessarily immoral, denial of service strikes for the fun of it.
by santiago on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 12:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh sure, the US gov couldn't possibly be involved in trying to attack a group which has caused them major embarrassment - get real.

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Sat Dec 11th, 2010 at 04:44:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When someone dismisses embarrassment, playing the rugged individual card, I just ask them to drop trousers and walk across the street. Easy enough.

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!
by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 02:47:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, please.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Sun Dec 12th, 2010 at 09:21:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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