by talos
Mon Nov 14th, 2011 at 06:13:14 AM EST
I was asked by the good folks over at the New Left Project for a write-up on the situation in Greece, after the "national unity" government quieted things down. You can read the article, titled "'National Unity' in Greece" here.
In brief I hold that a. This is far from settled, b. new struggles and renewed dissatisfaction are imminent and unavoidable (barring some sort of massive change of EU course, naturally) and c. that the whole situation has made a hard-left government a not totally fanciful idea:
It has become obvious over the past couple of years of the harshest austerity imposed in Europe since the Second World War that the true opposition to IMF/ECB policies comes from the streets and popular protest. As the fabric of society crumbles in Greece it seems improbable that a population in such distress can be pacified by a change of government guard. The coming months until the elections (supposedly due in February, though the date isn't set yet) will be crucial. Should the left manage to unite in an anti-austerity front as effectively as the elites have united behind the new Greek PM, Greece, so the polls seem to indicate, could be the first country in Europe to elect a hard left government. But there is a long way to go and the Communist Party, the largest party of the left, insists that it isn't interested in such a front. It remains to be seen whether it will keep to this line in the face of intensifying austerity.
A set of new polls came out hours after this was posted at NLP. This is the result from Public Issue, a polling company that seems to be the most constantly trustworthy among those that have published a poll this week (results normalized to 100%, interestingly intent of abstention has fallen precipitously this month to "only" 27%):
front-paged by afew
- New Democracy (conservatives, EPP) 28,5% from 31,5 in September and 33% (a historical low) at the 2009 elections
- PASOK (socialists PES) 19,5 from 22,5 in Sept, and 44% in the 2009 elections
- Communist Party of Greece (GUE/NGL but not really), 11% from 10,5% in Sept, and 7,5% in 2009
- LAOS (far right) 8,5% frm 9% in Sept and 5,6% in 2009
- SYRIZA (radical left, coalition of maoists to eurocommunists and ecologists GUE/NGL): 12% from 9,5% in Sept and 4,6% in 2009
- Democratic Left: (moderate left, recent SYRIZA splinter group GUE/NGL observers(?)) 7,5% from 5% in Sept
- Ecological Party (Greens) 3,5% from 3% in Sept. and 2,5% in 2009
- Democratic Coalition (Neolib, ND splinter group) 2,5% from 2% in Sept
- Others steady at 7%
It is obvious that mathematically this proves what I was saying. The left + Greens (including roughly 4% of the others, if I understand correctly), is for the first time since 1944 ahead and at historical heights of electoral influence. Should most of it run under an anti-memorandum banner, these polls say that they could be the winning party... That isn't easy, however because the block is hardly homogeneous and the differences that exist make such a scenario more difficult to materialize. Still even the potential should cause some sweating in various EU capitals and beyond...
Note that the same poll estimates that a majority approve of Papademos personally (55%), this after a week of the media hailing him as a new Messiah and the fact that he is a new kid on the blocks of political power. I have the feeling that his is not going to have much opportunity to further improve this score.
Finally to give you an idea of the sort of scare tactics used at the highest levels to extort a ECB friendly puppet government: Compare and contrast how J.C Juncker rules out expulsion of euro members on Nov 10th:
Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker ruled out on Thursday the possibility of expelling any country from the euro zone, saying such a move is not possible under European treaties.
"I exclude the hypothesis of expelling a country from the euro zone, in fact the treaty has no instrument which allows us to do that," Juncker told Portuguese television station TVI in an interview aired late Thursday.
When, three days before, as the Eurozone was "Already prepared for Greek exit" the same Mr. Juncker:
... has tried to assuage fears that other eurozone members will be hurt if Greece were to leave it.
"We are working on the subject of how to ensure there is not a disaster for the people in Germany, Luxembourg, the euro zone. We are absolutely prepared for the situation which I describe and which I want to be avoided," Juncker told ZDF Morgenmagazin:
"Everything must be done to try to make sure one member of the 17-member group does not fade away but if this were the wish of the Greeks -- and I think that would be wrong -- then we cannot force the Greeks toward their fortune," Juncker said.
"This is not my favored scenario. I would like Greece to stay on board but Greece must fulfill its obligations," he said.
He said euro zone leaders had a responsibility to the whole currency bloc and it was their job to try to stop contagion.
That's how you attempt to get people freightened enough to assent to their own devastation...
