The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou)

by Kostis Papadimitriou Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 04:49:20 AM EST

The third ox has fallen down. Today Papandreou will resign and an interim technocrat government will be announced in order to sign the October 26 agreement.
A center-right (actually outright right) government will take power in Greece after the general election scheduled for February. It is done deal that the New Democracy conservative party will win and form a governemnt alone or with the far right LAOS.
That follows suit with Ireland and Portugal (and it is about to happen in Spain).

See The four oxen and the lion (June 6th, 2011)

The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou) | 38 comments (38 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou) (none / 0)

Who is the fourth ox?

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 05:28:13 AM EST

Re: The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou) (none / 0)

PSOE?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 06:37:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou) (none / 0)

Oh, right, in my mind that had already happened long ago...

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 06:59:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou) (none / 0)

Well, yes. Zapatero is the third ox (election in Spain is 20 November, Greece will follow). Papandreou is the fourth.

"Eurozone leaders have turned a €50bn Greek solvency problem into a €1,000bn existential crisis for the European Union." David Miliband

by Kostis Papadimitriou on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 10:49:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou) (none / 0)

[ET Moderation Technology™]

Lazy linking corrected.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 05:29:45 AM EST

Re: The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou) (none / 0)

Clearly Greece is in need of Structural Reform.

Shock Doctrine should last about a week.

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 05:58:26 AM EST

Let's stop using the term "technocrat". (4.00 / 7)

Technocrat implies someone knowledgeable, who has know-how and who rose to her or his position of power meritocratically and uses that power by applying expertise to advance the interests of the citizens for whom he or she serves.

That's not currently the case in the EU. Technocrats are not experts, they advance narrow interests via the application of theological positions (e.g., growth through austerity, punishment of the so-called "profligate" as seen the a very blinkered prism of the creditor's eyes) rather than broad interests via the application of economic expertise painfully built nearly a century ago (see Mig's recent diary) and since forgotten.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 09:32:30 AM EST

stop using the term "technocrat". (4.00 / 3)

Well, according to your definition of technocrat, you've just described the man they have tapped, Papademos. Most of his work as an academic has been focused on macroeconomic aspects of the eurozone. I'm sure he well knows the problem.

More troubling is his long long (9 years) reign as Trichet's righthand man at the ECB.

Educated at MIT as a scientist, he moved into economics rather late and taught until he joined a US Federal Reserve Board as senior economist, then moved on to Greece before joining the ECB.

He has been teaching at Harvard since 2010 and advising Papandreou. The fact that his advice has not resulted in preventing horrid austerity measures for Greece makes one question how effective he might be.

Then again, he may have the wherewithal to actual discuss and argue economic policy with his eurozone co-locutors.

by Upstate NY on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 10:26:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

Let's hope, for Greece's sake, that not too much of Duisenberg and Trichet, two of the theologians to whom I referred, clouded his mind.

You can be scientific and still be a theologian, especially in Economics. It suffices to have a fancy econometric model with a lot of third and fourth derivatives, which while complicated enough, do not actually describe the world as it really works.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 10:40:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

I think the devil though is in the details. He has published widely. It would only take a few choice papers to discern what his leanings are.

by Upstate NY on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 10:44:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

Worth looking into.

Do you have any suggestions?

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 10:44:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (4.00 / 2)

The Stability and Growth Pact: An Asset Rather than a Liability?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 11:09:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

Thank you for this, was looking more for works from the caretaker in question.

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 11:16:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 1)

Thanks. Doesn't say much. Sounds very apparathcik-y. Basically fulfilling his function in the ECB--emphasizes "rules."

by Upstate NY on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 11:19:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

I can't access the scholarly articles from here. If nobody comes up with anything and I have time at work tomorrow, I'll see what I can access via our library's subscription.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 11:26:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 1)

http://www.accuracy.org/release/greece-from-the-frying-pan-into-the-fire/

Apparently, he's an Austerian. Very much in line with no haircuts, must pay back all the sebt.

Not sure what in the world he means by all of this.

by Upstate NY on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 11:42:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

"Economic Cycles and Monetary Policy" in Monetary Policy, Economic Cycle and Financial Dynamics, Paris: Banque de France, 2004.

"Policy-making in EMU: strategies, rules and discretion", in Economic Theory, vol. 27, 2006, pp. 25-38.

Also, found this from Harvard:

PED-231: The Global Financial Crisis: Policy Responses and Challenges

Semester: Spring

Credit: 1.0

Faculty: Lucas Papademos
Schedule
    Day     Time     Location
First Day     1/23
Meet Day     M/W     1:10 PM - 2:30 PM     L332
Review
Description

This course examines policies aimed at the prevention and management of financial crises in the light of recent experience. Topics covered include: macroeconomic and microfinancial causes and contributing factors to the global financial crisis; the role of central bank policies in crisis management and prevention; fiscal stimulus packages and bank support schemes; financial regulatory reform and the G20 process; systemic risk and macroprudential supervision; the fiscal legacy of the financial turbulence and the economic recession; and the European sovereign debt crisis.

by Upstate NY on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 11:16:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

Thank you!

The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill

by r------ on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 11:16:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 1)

redstar:

do not actually describe the world as it really works

Just stylize the facts, that'll do the trick.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 11:07:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 1)

See ECB Vice-President Speeches. The first few are by Vitor Constancio but prior to June 2010 they're all by Papademos.

To err is of course human. But to mess things up spectacularly, we need an elite — Yanis Varoufakis

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 11:28:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 1)

Apparently, Papademos will not accept the PM position. He will only accept the Crown.

by Upstate NY on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 02:41:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

Papademos has now accepted.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 8th, 2011 at 02:35:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

How is that important who will be the one to welcome bankruptcy administrators?

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Wed Nov 9th, 2011 at 06:18:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (4.00 / 2)

Well, the government is also the ones tat has the power to order the guns to be fired at demonstrators, so I do imagine it matters who is in charge these volatile days.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Nov 9th, 2011 at 07:02:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

Yeah...you are right in this...

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Wed Nov 9th, 2011 at 07:10:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 0)

Because welcoming them with a set of handcuffs and a military escort to the nearest border is a completely viable option for Greece.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Nov 9th, 2011 at 11:05:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: stop using the term "technocrat". (none / 1)

Scientific would be the pursuit of cause and effect explanations. What you are referring to with the econometric modeling is scientism ~ emulating the form rather than the substance of established sciences.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Nov 9th, 2011 at 12:14:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

technocrat is correct (none / 0)

Politicians, I am afraid, are out of fashion.

Everything being a "technical issue" or a "private issue", is essentially the denial of democracy.

Leave things to the specialists, they say.

by cagatacos on Mon Nov 7th, 2011 at 03:34:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: technocrat is correct (none / 0)

What, you want to leave it to the greedy voters and the greedy politicians who play them for fools.

I'm seeing a lot of people thinking in the box, just like they did after the end of the Great War.

How'd that go for you? You're forcing yourselves into accepting the man on a white horse.

Greece has a lot of curable problems, but none of the cures involve a pony for everyone, now or ever.

Is anyone here going to stop bashing the austerity drive? It's actually the right solution, but it has to include everyone, almost a communist system. Ready to think about that seriously, or are your minds closed?

Align culture with our nature. Ot else!

by ormondotvos (ormond.otvosnospamgmialcon) on Tue Nov 8th, 2011 at 01:46:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: technocrat is correct (none / 0)

Greece has never had anything but austerity.

by Upstate NY on Tue Nov 8th, 2011 at 10:48:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: technocrat is correct (none / 0)

Well, I heard the Greek 1% is not so bad off. Somebody needs to buy the villas, yachts, and apocryphal Porsches.

by asdf on Tue Nov 8th, 2011 at 11:31:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: technocrat is correct (none / 0)

In Greece's, it's always been about the 10%.

by Upstate NY on Tue Nov 8th, 2011 at 11:34:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: technocrat is correct (none / 0)

Which is really the basic problem for the country. If the elite paid its taxes and abstained from corruption, the man in street would as well. And then you wouldn't need austerity to balance the budget.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Wed Nov 9th, 2011 at 05:37:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: technocrat is correct (4.00 / 2)

But, the fact is, Greece collects 40% of GDP in taxes. It has very high taxes paid by a disproportionate amount of its citizens. I keep seeing Greek tax evasion as a problem of justice and fairness inside the country.

Outside the country, though, people tend to take the sum total of the evasion (say 30% though officially it's 25%) and subtract that number from the debt. They don't realize two things.

The Euro tax evasion average is 19% and the USA average is 17%, so the savings for Greece would be 6-12% of GDP.
Any additional amount collected from the rich should be used to reduce the extraordinary debt burden on the classes and jobs that pay. So, the net would stay the same.

I would also mention that shipping, the oligarch's domain, is untaxed except for tonnage tax on the ships, and the shipowners are largely paid in long-term capital gains (i.e. selling stock). This also means that while shipping is a significant part of GDP, it does not add much to taxes. so the tax revenue to GDP number appears slightly skewed.

by Upstate NY on Wed Nov 9th, 2011 at 07:08:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: technocrat is correct (4.00 / 4)

ormondotvos:

Is anyone here going to stop bashing the austerity drive? It's actually the right solution, but it has to include everyone, almost a communist system. Ready to think about that seriously, or are your minds closed?

Even if it included everyone I would not agree, because what austerity means is to underuse the one resource we have plenty of. It is also a underutilisation and destruction of capital as it is not maintained.

What we need is to use less raw materials, in a way that optimises useful output/resource used. That means letting people work and taking care of the capital we have.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 8th, 2011 at 02:27:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: technocrat is correct (4.00 / 2)

A swedish kind of death:

What we need is to use less raw materials, in a way that optimises useful output/resource used. That means letting people work and taking care of the capital we have.

i agree with both of you. if austerity were a burden shared fairly, all the cuts would not be on services for the weakest parts of society, pensions etc.

the real austerity, as you cogently point out, needs to come with regard to our profligate waste of precious resources, and our criminally irresponsible, ecocidal sidebarring of green initiatives in favour of the vested interests of fossil fuel producers and middlemen, who have captured the political forces responsible for guiding us towards a wiser energy policy and greater environmental awareness.

so you're both right!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Nov 8th, 2011 at 02:50:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: technocrat is correct (4.00 / 3)

ormondotvos:

It's actually the right solution, but it has to include everyone, almost a communist system.

What we are seeing is the usual neolib "reform" ie wage depression. It doesn't include everyone, it favours the plutocrats, it is nowhere near a communist system, and, yes, we'll go on opposing it, thanks.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 8th, 2011 at 02:38:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou) (none / 0)

http://www.sbs.com.au/ondemand/video/2165609129/Insight:-Greek-Ruins-full-ep

Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind...Albert Einstein

by vbo on Wed Nov 9th, 2011 at 07:56:48 AM EST

The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou) | 38 comments (38 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]

The third ox has fallen down (Papandreou)

Top Diaries

Speaking right: What an Taoiseach should say in Washington

Ambushing an Taoiseach

The problems with formal education

Net Zero Energy - March 2025

We do have the cards

Manipulating Irishness

Thomas Paine's Age of Reason

An Enchanted Isle

Recent Diaries

Ukraine Violated Human Rights in Odessa - 2014

Rutte In the Apprentice Theatre

Rearming Europe Peace Through More War

Keith Kellogg Is Out

Nordic States Join Baltics Again WWII Redux

Goodbye NATO/USA, Welcome Europe's E5

Zelensky and the Terror State Ukraine

EU Commissioner VDL In Full Panic Mode

The problems with formal education

The Battle for Kiev/Kyiv

VDL At the Crossroads of Europe - Part 1

The speech Micheál Martin should make in the White House:...

Either At the Table, Or Else On the Menu

A Happy AQ Warrior On Syrian Victory

Trump More Destructive Than Genocide Joe?

Terror HTS FF In Latakia, Syria

Speaking right: What an Taoiseach should say in Washington

Net Zero Energy - March 2025

Ukraine Stop the War

Dutch Labour Morphed Into A Huron War Party