by afew
Fri Feb 10th, 2012 at 04:21:43 AM EST
Over the last two weeks, the not-yet candidate whose candidature is supported by Angela Merkel, has nailed his colours to the mast: hard over to the right. First act, two Sundays ago with his six-channel TV spectacular, he announced that France would adopt the policies that have done so well for Germany, including an increase in VAT of 1.6% and the usual "necessary reforms" (in other words, reduce labour costs). Now, to appear in the magazine of the UMP's house newspaper, Le Figaro, he comes out with more bold plans: he will hold a referendum on the questions of whether foreigners should be more easily thrown out of the country or not, and whether the long-term unemployed should be forced into training and/or work, or not.
Shorter Sarkozy: I'll bring your wages down, but I'll offer you scapegoats.
The not-yet-candidate's campaign is built on an appeal to the popular right - Le Pen's electorate - and the traditional authoritarian right. So, along with the finger-pointing at the shirkers unemployed and the job thieves foreigners, he comes out in the Fig Mag in favour of "values" that include opposition to gay marriage and euthanasia, and can be summed up in the watchword (already used in 2007) Travail, Responsabilité, Autorité (the usual playing around with historical symbols: he could just as well put Famille instead of Responsabilité, since he and the UMP are apparently the last rampart against Socialist attacks on the Family, though Patrie would smell too strongly of mothballs).
As usual for Sarkozy, there's plenty of smoke billowing about. He is not a candidate and these are not proposals. He is the Head of State (to be used in UMP talking points in place of President of the Republic) and he is announcing what he intends to do. After the elections, of course.
What's the sense in all this? Not much. After a decade (half in government, half as president), Sarkozy has nothing to show for it - or rather, since polls show that the French place purchasing power and employment way at the top of their list of worries, all he has to show is negative. So he can only desperately steer the discussion away from anything other than his fake achievements as Saviour of the euro and Co-prince of Europe with the Kanzlerin, a set of wedge issues puffed up as "values", and the designation of enemies. The very fact that he is tacking to the right (apart from natural inclination) is evidence that he has no other room for manoeuvre. Whether Marine Le Pen is on the ballot or not, he is reduced to pleasing her electorate.
This should improve François Bayrou's flagging poll performance (from the mid-teens to 10% in a few weeks) by opening up the centre-right terrain. Meanwhile, François Hollande seems to be lapping it up. Amused, he asked if there couldn't also be a referendum on the VAT rise. And reminded his rally audience that the "next referendum" is in May with the second round of the presidential election. Hollande is currently polling in the low thirties for the first round, and is stable at 57.5% in the run-off.
So, fear of the world and of enemies without and within, scapegoats, penance for debt-guilt, authority. Can Sarko win more than 50% of the French electorate with that? It's his only hope, and it's a slim one.
