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LQD: New election in Greece

by rz Mon Dec 29th, 2014 at 06:15:18 AM EST

I have not much to say here. But just now the election of the new president of Greece in the Greek parliament failed for the third time. This means there will be a snap election.

From Reuters

Greek lawmakers failed to elect a new president in a final round of voting on Monday, leaving the country facing an early election that could derail the international bailout program it needs to keep paying its bills.

Can Syzra win? Should it win?

I do not want to bore people again with stuff about the ECB, but I found this quite weird (from an article in the Telegraph from shortly before the vote in the parliament)

Gikas Hardouvelis, the Greek finance minister, warned on Sunday that the election of an anti-austerity party could lead to punitive European Central Bank economic sanctions against Greece.

"The ECB holds the key," he told Greece's To Vima newspaper. "This key can easily and abruptly turn off bank funding and strangle the Greek economy in a split second."

Has it come to this? It is basically matter of fact that the ECB can impose its political will?

Display:
LQD: New election in Greece | 56 comments (56 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Punitive measures? That is a thing of conspiracy.. (4.00 / 2)
...or maybe not.

Obviously there will be an all-out effort to create a catastrophe in Greece (you know with famine and such).

In a sense it is a bummer that many things are starting in Greece:

It made for the narrative of "state-debt as a problem" (if things had started in Ireland the "banks as a problem" would have probably won).

It will also inspire fear in all the wanna-be leavers (Italy, Podemos-Spain and maybe a Le Pen-France): the pain that will be inflicted in Greece (and of which it has little ability to defend itself) will serve as an "example" to others.

Tragic in many ways.

That being said, I wish all the best to the Greeks and hope for SYRIZA to win and, hopefully, to navigate Greece to safety.

by cagatacos on Mon Dec 29th, 2014 at 07:20:28 AM EST
Re: Punitive measures is a thing of conspiracy (4.00 / 3)
Samaras has been doing his best for the past 3 months to ensure there is a catastrophe.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 29th, 2014 at 08:46:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures is a thing of conspiracy (none / 0)
You mean his idea that next year Greece could do without IMF help?
by rz on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:36:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures is a thing of conspiracy (4.00 / 6)
He's been trying to create a crisis while at the same time pinning the blame on Syriza. That works on Serious People who already believe Syriza is the Devil. And they may well manufacture a repeat of the 2010 Greek crisis.

See also Macropolis: How snap elections in Greece fit into Samaras's strategy - See more at: http://www.macropolis.gr/?i=portal.en.the-agora.2062#sthash.pbxzEW8S.dpuf (29 December 2014)

Snap elections in Greece have been on the cards for a while. Every move made by the government in recent months (negotiations with the troika in Paris, the early bailout exit plan, calling a sudden vote of confidence and moving the date of the presidential vote forward by two months) have been vain attempts to put off the inevitable. There was never a convincing case that the coalition's candidate would be able to gather the minimum 180 votes needed and Prime Minister Antonis Samaras's half-hearted attempts to offer a potentially game-changing compromise over the past week were far too little, too late.

...

At this point, Samaras made what was a deeply political calculation: He realised that passing the latest clutch of troika demands through Parliament would guarantee that his government had no chance of electing a president in February and would force it to go to national polls having only just approved a new round of unpopular measures. In these circumstances, bringing forward the presidential vote gave the coalition a slightly better chance of success or, if snap elections were not avoided, meant that a SYRIZA or SYRIZA-led government would be left with the task of closing out the troika negotiations.

...

So, if SYRIZA wins a January 25 election it will have around a month in which to ensure the election of a president, find political allies that do not yet exist, form a government for the first time in its history and reach some kind of settlement with the troika before the extension to the current bailout ends on February 28, leaving Greece in serious danger of being unable to meet its debt obligations over the next few months. Even if SYRIZA overcomes these hurdles, it will still have to put its demands for debt relief and economic stimulus to the country's lenders, while running the risk of alienating them by fulfilling its pre-election promises of wage and pension rises.

And, of course, pressure is already being applied as if following a plan: IMF suspends aid to Greece until snap election is completed (Deutsche Welle, 29.12.2014)

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:46:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures is a thing of conspiracy (none / 1)
Well, in that case I would like to thank Mr Samaras. I had some money I needed to move from NZ to France, and today seemed like a good day for it.

Though late January might have been better.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:11:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
right, it is Syriza not Syzra. Somehow I remembered that wrong.

From what I heard about Syriza I do not have the feeling that they understand how to deal with capital mobility. But maybe they are simply not so upfront about it.

by rz on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:39:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
In planning for a crisis, the best strategy may be to keep the potential money-movers guessing as to what you are going to implement. If Syriza announced their specific policies now, obviously the smart money would do everything to defeat them; and would probably succeed.

I have no doubt that Syriza has detailed plans.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:53:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 2)
I fear the options Syriza can let money-movers guess about are limited, though. when Hungary's right-populist government played this game (and I'm still not sure to what extent it was planned), the options with the appearance of plausibility included folding to IMF demands, but playing with that even as just appearance would be fatal for Syriza domestically. Their only good options are different ways to rebel against a Troika dictate.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:11:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
I would also say that they need to present a credible alternative to the voting public. But what exactly would that be? An alternative currency? Do they have the macro economic understanding to implement such a policy?
by rz on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:14:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 4)
One of the problems governments face nowadays is that they are unable to change the Central Bank governor before their statutory term is up, so Syriza is stuck with Yannis Stournaras. On whom see Yanis Varoufakis: Greek Finance Minister Confesses: "I turned down the IMF's offer of an alliance in favour of a debt restructure" (January 10, 2014)
This is a stupendous story. Possibly for the first time in its tainted history, the International Monetary Fund had a major change of heart and tried to do the right thing by a `program' country, only to be turned down by that very same country's finance minister!

...

Mr Stournaras, perhaps unwittingly, admitted to the Financial Times that he informed the German finance minister of Ms Lagarde's and Mr Tompsen's offer before the crucial Eurogroup meetings, thus voiding any surprise-move advantage that an IMF-Greek common position could have enjoyed. As we all know, from the experience of the past five years, when confronted unexpectedly by a determined large `player' (e.g. the IMF), the German position suddenly becomes more flexible. Thus Greece stood to gain at least some benefits from accepting Ms Lagarde's overtures. (But as the main beneficiary of the IMF's readiness to confront Berlin, Greece that is, refused to join in, there was nothing that the IMF could do.)

...

Yannis Stournaras happens to be a valued colleague and a good friend of mine (see the open letter I sent him upon his appointment as finance minister). It is with great personal sadness that I write these lines. Greece needs a finance minister that will re-negotiate forcefully the terms and conditions of a misanthropic, irrational, unworkable `bailout' package (especially now that a Mk3 version is on the boil). Given the way he, by his own admission, squandered this remarkable opportunity to increase Greece's bargaining power, he lacks the credibility amongst Greece's polity to lead these negotiations. He should thus resign. Effective immediately.



A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:24:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
Syriza is stuck with Yannis Stournaras.

Unless he should resign, die or become incapable of fulfilling his duties.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 11:56:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
Or be dismissed for cause by the new government and charged with some offense.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 12:00:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 3)
Stuck with the CB governor, but not with the board...

... or the core governance structure.

Ram a law through parliament giving the government the power to replace at will the board of the central bank, and devolve all operational powers to individual board appointees, leaving the president as an empty figurehead position.

The entire construction of an "independent central bank" is a bad-faith nonsense, so treat it as such and dare anybody to point to a particular article of the treaties to justify their objection - on pain of strategic default against and confiscations oftheir Greek assets if they interfere in the internal affairs of the sovereign Greek state.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 04:00:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
That would be a significant improvement over having one of your friendly local gangster types do you a favor. And, given how things have been done in Greece, it might not be too hard to find actual self dealing in a Central Bank officer.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 09:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
I thought there was a EU rule banning firing the board (or rather giving the board mmebers the right to appeal their firing to the highest member state court). Can't find it though.

What I do find is this:

EUR-Lex - C2010/083/01 - EN - EUR-Lex

Article 130

(ex Article 108 TEC)

When exercising the powers and carrying out the tasks and duties conferred upon them by the Treaties and the Statute of the ESCB and of the ECB, neither the European Central Bank, nor a national central bank, nor any member of their decision-making bodies shall seek or take instructions from Union institutions, bodies, offices or agencies, from any government of a Member State or from any other body. The Union institutions, bodies, offices or agencies and the governments of the Member States undertake to respect this principle and not to seek to influence the members of the decision-making bodies of the European Central Bank or of the national central banks in the performance of their tasks.

Article 131

(ex Article 109 TEC)

Each Member State shall ensure that its national legislation including the statutes of its national central bank is compatible with the Treaties and the Statute of the ESCB and of the ECB.

And this:

The Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the ECB

Article 14
National central banks
14.1. In accordance with Article 131 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, each Member State shall ensure that its national legislation, including the statutes of its national central bank, is compatible with these Treaties and this Statute.

14.2. The statutes of the national central banks shall, in particular, provide that the term of office of a Governor of a national central bank shall be no less than five years.

A Governor may be relieved from office only if he no longer fulfils the conditions required for the performance of his duties or if he has been guilty of serious misconduct. A decision to this effect may be referred to the Court of Justice by the Governor concerned or the Governing Council on grounds of infringement of these Treaties or of any rule of law relating to their application. Such proceedings shall be instituted within two months of the publication of the decision or of its notification to the plaintiff or, in the absence thereof, of the day on which it came to the knowledge of the latter, as the case may be.

14.3. The national central banks are an integral part of the ESCB and shall act in accordance with the guidelines and instructions of the ECB. The Governing Council shall take the necessary steps to ensure compliance with the guidelines and instructions of the ECB, and shall require that any necessary information be given to it.

14.4. National central banks may perform functions other than those specified in this Statute unless the Governing Council finds, by a majority of two thirds of the votes cast, that these interfere with the objectives and tasks of the ESCB. Such functions shall be performed on the responsibility and liability of national central banks and shall not be regarded as being part of the functions of the ESCB.

But hey, it is all in the interpretation, and the EU has a lack of gunboats to enforce interpretations.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Jan 2nd, 2015 at 08:09:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 1)
Well, clearly parliament isn't conveying instructions, and clearly the board members don't accept nor solicit instructions.

However, parliament is permitted to voice opinions, and board members are permitted to form opinions, and parliament is permitted, by the text of the rules, to hire and fire board members at its pleasure, so long as the reasons given for the termination is unrelated to policy.

It's obviously a bad faith move, but establishing the precedent that the central bank acting in bad faith is a violation of the treaties would in itself be a valuable sort of outcome.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2015 at 03:42:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 4)
At this point, I bring up the question of the 'unexpected' survival of the Euro.

Years ago at the height of the crisis, I was surprised to see many ET regulars agree with Anglo-Saxon analysts like Paul Krugman that a break-up of the Euro or at least a Grexit is imminent. I don't live in the Eurozone so I felt unsure about my judgement and kept silent, but I thought that getting out of the Euro would seem such a step back for a significant part of the population that they will tolerate the austerity measures even if those hurt them and prove to make no economic sense at all. (I lived through enough austerity programmes to be cynical about how much can be forced down people's throats.) As I remember the concern over the Euro was then indeed the key factor in ND's late resurgence and Syriza's failure to win the last elections.

This might prove key again this time: will the introduction of a new currency be an option Syriza can offer to voters? On one hand, there might be many who realised that they would have been better advised to take the risk of Euro exit in 2010 and vote for Syriza to let them play that hand now. On the other hand, with the crisis appearing to be bottoming out, people might have become more risk-averse again. (I emphasize again that this has nothing to do with economic realities or the actual relative merits of the different policy choices, but public perceptions and groupthink.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:47:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 5)
In theory, Greece could exit the Euro if it has a primary surplus. Which it does since earlier this year. However... Greek statistics are back: Primary deficit presented as surplus, with Eurostat's seal of approval (April 24, 2014)
Eurostat has just approved the Greek statistical service's (ELSTAT) figures on the general government's primary surplus of around 0.8% of GDP. Were that true, it would have been of great significance. Not because Greek debt would have, magically, become sustainable but, rather, because it would have meant that the Greek government would have acquired great leverage in its negotiations on the impending restructuring of Greece's public debt. Put simply, it would mean that the government could, at least in theory, suspend debt repayments to the troika while the negotiations are continuing , without having to renege on its payments of salaries, pensions, and suppliers. Alas, the Greek government's 2013 primary surplus is a statistical mirage. Moreover, it is a mirage purposely concocted by Eurostat and ELSTAT under the watchful, and conniving, eyes of Berlin, Frankfurt and Brussels. Mindful of how weighty these charges are, I list my evidence immediately below.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:58:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
I agree.
by rz on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:12:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
A bank run is a possible scenario, but if it ever comes to happen, it will take place during (or around) election night. Dealing with the consequences will be mostly up the those presently in office and the Bank of Greece. In any case: Syriza seems to indeed lack a plan for such crisis.

Remember however, that every € that leaves Greece into another member state is registered as an asset in the balance sheet of the Bank of Greece.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 01:24:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 4)
"Obviously there will be an all-out effort to create a catastrophe in Greece (you know with famine and such)."

A famine in Greece?

That's going to take some doing. It is a strongly agricultural country. And any attempt at that would probably mean total depletion of the Mediterranean sea (Greece already takes 19% of the EU fish catch there, and would probably not worry with quotas too much in case of a famine).

No doubt that much will be done to prevent a Syriza government, even though they are the only moderate party left in Greece (its tag as "radical left" notwhithstanding). But famine seems a somewhat distant prospect.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:10:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 4)
I think the first goal of the entire EU establishment will be to scare voters off Syriza, and whatever they'll say won't really equate to (is probably worse than) their post-election contingency plan. If Syriza wins, the second goal will be to scare off potential coalition partners from joining them for a viable government majority. If that fails, there is still the option for some compromise in which Greece gets some debt relief and EU leaders [here I mean both leaders of EU institutions and EU nation states] can claim that Greece can leave the bailout regime because of the good work of the previous government. Making an example will come if the confrontation reaches points of no return from the EU elite's view like Greece leaving the Euro.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:18:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 4)
Greek trade balance breakdown for 2013 shows that, of a negative overall balance of -25bn USD:

the biggest negative articles are
*oil & gas -8.4bn USD
*capital goods (machinery, eletrical, electronic, ships, vehicles) -6.6bn USD
*pharmaceuticals -2.4bn USD

Foodstuffs figure on the negative side thus:

*meat -1.3bn USD
*dairy -0.5bn USD
*cereals -0.3bn USD
*miscellaneous (my rough calculation) -1.6bn USD
Total -3.7bn USD

but bolster the positive side:

*vegetable/fruit preparations 0.9bn USD
*fruit, nuts etc 0.75bn USD
*animal/vegetable fats/oils 0.4bn USD
*fish 0.35bn USD
Total 2.4bn USD

The foodstuffs balance is negative but not enormously (-1.3bn USD). Eat less meat and dairy, and more vegetables, fruit, fish, olive oil (the Mediterranean diet!) and it could be fixed.

The worrisome items, in terms of immediate living conditions, are oil & gas, and pharmaceuticals.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 10:55:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
Ooops on that page you have to specify Greece as country and trade balance in other criteria.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 11:05:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 1)
Oil and gas should be less of a problem next year.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 12:33:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
A famine anywhere is trivial to bring about: agriculture is an energy intensive activity in its current form. Unless Greece is energy independent there is a problem.

It does not matter if they have a current account surplus if the global political environment makes it impossible for Greece to sell.

"Sell to Greece, make Germany an enemy". Who would sell to Greece?

by cagatacos on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 01:30:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 2)
You are saying no crude-producing country would deliver to Greek refineries for fear of Germany?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 03:40:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 1)
Even Russia for a share in Piraeus port?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 03:47:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
They already sold that port to China.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 04:16:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
What about Thessaloniki?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 04:39:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That one too (n/t) (none / 0)


Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 04:40:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 3)
I would lease a naval facility on the Island of Lemnos to the Russians...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 05:58:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (4.00 / 2)
That is being said, and it is absurd.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2015 at 05:44:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Punitive measures? (none / 0)
The only thing absurd is the idea that a small country in a very perilous position in many regards will be able to face the wrath of the most important EU country plus the whole view of the globalized political and economical elite (which is currently aligned with Germany's interests).

What people are here suggesting is akin to saying that the American embargo to Cuba is of no consequence to Cuba's relationship with the rest of the world.

by cagatacos on Tue Jan 6th, 2015 at 06:33:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: LQD: New election in Greece (4.00 / 3)
Another tragic possibility of last resort is engineered "Colour Revolution" to steer the Greeks on the right path. Considering how divided is Greek society with the Extreme Right prominently visible this is not such a far fetched scenario.
by Ivo on Mon Dec 29th, 2014 at 01:36:52 PM EST
Re: LQD: New election in Greece (none / 0)
well, we will see. But a color revolution is not needed. Only the right party needs to win the election.

I am not really familiar with the political situation in Greece. I read that Syzra currently is at 28% in the polls. Would they even have a suitable coalition partner?

by rz on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:35:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: LQD: New election in Greece (4.00 / 4)
In the Greek election system, there is a hefty bonus in parliament seats for the largest party. In addition, some government parties might fail the limit. That's still not enough for Syriza, but might be enough for the anti-austerity parties (which include one conservative party that was apparently key to the presidential vote, having rejected a corrupt offer to buy votes).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:44:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: LQD: New election in Greece (none / 0)
ohh I feel the need for some number-crunching on the possibilities...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 04:54:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: LQD: New election in Greece (4.00 / 4)
It is fairly easy.

Bonus is 50 seats to biggest party, 250 seats are awarded roughly proportional. So 100+ seats are needed from proportional distribution if the coalition includes the largest party, 150+ if the coalition does not include the largest party, ie 40+% or 60+%.

In the last three polls you get roughly these percentages (average by quick look):
Pro-austerity
ND 29
Pasok 5

Anti-austerity
Syriza 33
ANEL 3
KKE 6

Nazi
XA 7

Other
Dimar 1
Potami 7
Other 9

To enter parliament, you need 3% so Dimar - anti-austerity in election, then in pro-austerity government, then leaving government but collaborating with them - is gone. Looking at the EP election, the other is a varied collection of 1-2% parties so absent surprises those can be discounted. With 10% not represented, the amounts needed falls to 36+% and 54+%. So perhaps Syriza and ANEL (if they keep their numbers above the threshold) or Syriza and KKE.

Potami appears according to wikipedia (en, fr, de) to be some sort of lofty pro-European party that is heavily dependent on celebrity leader. They are members of the S&D group, but not PES. Socialliberal, but left and right is no good guide to pro- and anti-austerity in Greece. With their numbers and right-left position they should be natural partners for Syriza if they are anti-austerity. So are they anti-austerity?

Deutsche Bank apparently thinks so:

Deutsche Bank predicts victory of SYRIZA and coalition government with POTAMI | protothemanews.com

According to Deutsche Bank, following the unsuccessful election of President of the Republic, which by the way was to be expected, a new era of political uncertainty opens up which raises three main questions. What will be the reaction of Europeans in early elections, who will win the election and what approach the new government will follow?

Among other, the German Bank attempt to answer to the above questions and predicts concerning the elections, a victory of SYRIZA and coalition government with POTAMI.

(I haven't watched the video there.)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 05:26:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Poll numbers from AFP (none / 0)
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 05:32:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Poll numbers from AFP (none / 0)
Who are the allies? Presumably not the KKE.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 06:59:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Poll numbers from AFP (none / 0)
askod suggests above ANEL (Independent Hellenes), but according to those poll results, they disappear.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 07:32:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Poll numbers from AFP (4.00 / 2)
DIMAR has stated they could work with Syriza, but according to every poll collected on Opinion polling for the Greek legislative election, 2015 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia since the EP-election they have been below 3%. ANEL is around 3% so it matters on which poll you use.

KKE is apparently against cooperation.

Greek legislative election, 2015 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

DIMAR MP Ioannis Michelogiannakis said that following another election the party could also work with a SYRIZA-led government.[14] DIMAR MP and member of the central committee of DIMAR, Spyros Lykoudis, stated his preference for a broader SYRIZA-DIMAR-PASOK coalition.[15]

Panos Kammenos, leader of Independent Greeks (ANEL) stated he favored a broad alliance of anti-bailout parties, excluding Golden Dawn.[16] Kammenos also proposed cooperating with SYRIZA in the 2014 local elections, suggesting their candidates could appear on the same ticket.[17] Following the rumors of a third bailout, Kammenos attempted to convince maverick ND and PASOK MPs to bring down the government.[16]

Dimitris Koutsoumpas, leader of the Communist Party (KKE), reiterated the party's stance against cooperation with other parties, stating alliances or partnerships must be done in terms of social movements, "not from the top down, where leaders sit down and find, one, two, three things they agree on and sign a program. Those alliances have been shown to have many bad side effects for the labour movement."[18][19]

And according to Deutsche Bank, Potami would cooperate with Syriza.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 08:08:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: Poll numbers from AFP (4.00 / 6)
Mystery solved, AFP can not read Greek, or perhaps understand the difference between these two logos:

It is the latter, ANEL, Independent Greeks that gets nine seats in the poll they base it on (page 2, seat distribution).

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 08:24:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The boss has spoken (none / 1)
BBC: Greece crisis: Germany's Schaeuble warns over reform (30 December 2014)
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said there was "no alternative" to structural changes.

...

Mr Schaeuble warned that things could become difficult if Greece took a "different path".

"New elections change nothing about the agreements that the Greek government has entered into," the eurozone's most powerful finance minister added. "Any new government must stick to the contractual agreements of its predecessors."

Pacta sunt servanda.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 05:28:12 AM EST
Re: The boss has spoken (4.00 / 3)
I guess in a formal legal sense Schäuble is right. This is the problem with international contracts. It binds the government no matter what the electorate says. I think this is the reason why free trade deals are seen as so important. Free trade contract forever enshrine neo-liberal economic principles.

But look, not to beat a dead horse here. But many rules have been broken already. The ECB is not keeping its mandate and it is Germanys fault.

by rz on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 06:29:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The boss has spoken (none / 1)
The German establishment is nothing if not formalistic and legalistic.

Incidentally, I used to be a fan of German legal positivism until I saw the practical consequences of legalism in the Euro crisis.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 08:40:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The boss has spoken (none / 1)
Shameless self-plug: 'Germany Was Biggest Debt Transgressor of 20th Century' - SPIEGEL ONLINE
by Bernard (bernard) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 09:28:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The boss has spoken (none / 0)
contracts can be changed.
by IM on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 03:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The boss has spoken (none / 0)
Schäuble should know, he's a lawyer.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 30th, 2014 at 06:00:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The boss has spoken (none / 1)
yeah lawyer, like almost all German technocrats, (government capture by psycho-rigids borderline psychopath)
by fredouil (fredouil@gmailgmailgmail.com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 12:03:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: The boss has spoken (4.00 / 2)
Hi, fredouil, long time no read.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 04:02:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Re: LQD: New election in Greece (4.00 / 3)
It's amazing how macro-economics is the stuff of conversation everywhere I stick my head out into. "We need to get out of the Euro" says the guy selling ice cream, and a few days ago, at the same time ET was discussing the idea of a parallel currency, I was in the health food store, listening to a shopper telling all and sundry that if we created a 'Eurino' for southern Europe we could use that to ameliorate our economy.

"Eurino' has a nice ring to it. There are quite a few Syriza fans here in Italy, if S. is voted in and wants to try something like that there would be strong Italian support.

Schauble creeps me out almost as much as his henchman Padoan. These are not nice people. Strip away their purported grasp of economics and putative use of austerity as cure for all Europe's ills, and what is left?

A horror flick...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 06:21:53 AM EST
Re: LQD: New election in Greece (4.00 / 2)
Good point here on the ECB. As usual the Commission and the Council will be keen on washing their hands and leaving the hot potato with Draghi y sus muchachos. Typically liberal: the policy is absence of policy.

Crucifying Greece will not go without consequence. The liberals in charge will make all they can to scare Greeks off Syriza. But in the end, pulling the plug will not be a simple decision.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Wed Dec 31st, 2014 at 01:19:26 PM EST
Re: LQD: New election in Greece (none / 1)
Merkel ready to let Greece exit eurozone: report - The Local
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is prepared to let Greece leave the eurozone if Greeks elect a government that jettisons the country's current austerity course, according to German media reports.

 The report in the Der Spiegel daily, which cited sources close to the German government, comes as polls show a radical leftist party leading the field three weeks ahead of a snap election in Greece.

The Syriza party of Alexis Tsipras has pledged to reverse reforms imposed by Greece's international creditors and renegotiate its bailout deal.

"The German government considers a eurozone exit (by Greece) to be almost inevitable if opposition leader Alexis Tsipras leads the government after the election and abandons budgetary discipline and does not repay the country's debts," Der Spiegel reported on its website.

Both Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble had come to view a potential Greek exit from the 19-currency eurozone in a less dramatic light, the report explained.

They both now felt such an outcome would be "bearable", Der Spiegel quoted unnamed sources as saying.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jan 4th, 2015 at 10:53:53 AM EST
Re: LQD: New election in Greece (none / 0)
BBC News - Greece must 'abide' by bailout terms - Germany

The German government expects Greece to uphold the terms of its international bailout agreement, a spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel has said.

But spokesman Georg Streiter declined to comment on reports that Berlin is now content that eurozone could withstand Greece's exit from the bloc.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jan 4th, 2015 at 10:54:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LQD: New election in Greece | 56 comments (56 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)


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