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But compare with the current parliament:

       2012 2014(est.)
CiU	50    27-30
ERC	21    33-37
PSC	20    16-17
PPC	19    13-16
ICV	13	9
C	 9    16-17
CUP	 3     5-6
Podemos  -     9-11

The PSC continues its slide into irrelevance and the new parties Podemos, CUP and Ciutadans grow alongside ERC. What we're seeing here is the slow death of the traditional party system (CiU, PSC, PPC, ICV). The attraction of a CiU/PSC alliance is evident: it is their swan song.

And note that the old parties are the traditional class-based parties with a touch of green, but the new parties are all nationalist/populist.

C: created about 10 years ago as an antinationalist but decidedly Catalan party
CUP: left party created in the past 4 years as an offshoot of the grass-roots independence movement
Podemos: anti-austerity grass-roots movement

Evidently the CUP people didn't want to join ERC, and Podemos embodies the 15-M distrust of parliamentary politics.

ERC used to be a radical left party and has surged to being mainstream.

Now imagine a system in which C largely replaces PPC and PSC, CiU loses hegemony to ERC, plus CUP and Podemos. Ungovernable mess sounds about right.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 08:43:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

For an alternative view, from 5 months ago, see

Common Sense analyzes the most likely outcomes in the Catalan independence process "Catalonia: End Game Scenarios" http://t.co/zROFwMzRuL
— Fernando Betancor (@fdbetancor) abril 21, 2014

The first chart shows the current position: Catalan representatives have requested authority to hold a referendum and they have been rebuffed. They now have five options:

End the referendum process and accept the status quo (the "Collaborationist Option");

Hold an unofficial referendum (the "Veneto Option");

Hold an unauthorized referendum (the "Crimea Option");

Call for elections on a single platform of separation, which would serve as a de facto referendum;

Unilaterally declare independence without further ado (the "Jefferson Option").

Some of these options are so improbable as to be beyond the realm of possibility, but I will present each of them in turn. Since I am as fallible as the next man, take these estimations for what they are worth.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 08:51:01 AM EST

What about 6: Hold an official vote to secede, vote Yes, and then have everybody forget about it (the "Staten Island Option")?

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 08:59:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Catalan scenarios (4.00 / 2)

Interesting breakdown.

I think the most critical number is the probability that the Mossos would comply with Madrid if ordered. The author of that piece has it at 20% for comply and 80% for ignoring orders. Is that about right?

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by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 03:03:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Scenario D (4.00 / 2)

D for Draghi.

Preamble: some of these movements (not Scotland) are being expanded because of austerity. This seems to be the case in Catalonia.

With Mario Draghi at the ECB things enter anaesthesia mode: bad, but not bad enough to cause large unrest.

When one thinks at the broader picture this is profoundly dismal:

People use the independence card when in stress mostly. In fluffy times then no problem. This kind of independence card is variation of the "hate the different" card used in times of stress [Do not get me wrong, I am all for small countries/city-states, just not in this fashion]
The power to change things is really in the hands of an unelected bureaucrat sitting somewhere in Frankfurt. That is where the lovely EU/Euro arrangement got us.

I am writing this from the US, and for all its shortcomings, the local mess seems less disturbing around here.

AD: After Draghi. Unless he cannot hold the boat until then.

by cagatacos on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 11:57:24 AM EST

Re: Scenario D (4.00 / 6)

Draghi has reached the end of his rope: Draghi's attempt to jump start stuttering eurozone falls flat (FT.com, September 18, 2014)

Europe's banks borrowed €82.6bn through the first of the ECB's Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations, or TLTROs, out of a possible €400bn, much less than analysts had forecast.
That dealt a blow to Mr Draghi's ambitions to expand the ECB's balance sheet by up to €1tn, in order to boost lending to smaller businesses in the region and counter low inflation.
...
The TLTROs allow banks to borrow at a rate just above the ECB's main refinancing rate of 0.05 per cent until late 2018 so long as they meet targets for lending to businesses. If they miss the targets, they must pay the funds back in 2016.

The misdiagnosis continues. This has always been a demand-led recession made worse by a preceding asset bubble, and the misdiagnosis has been made worse by the choice of austerity. Now finally banks are mostly fixed, or at least they have behaved as if major stress is gone since 2012. But the weakness of the real economyy remains, as does the austerity.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 12:25:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Scenario D (4.00 / 3)

I have seen no substitute emerge for direct fiscal stimulus by the governments, supported by the 'central bank' - such as it is. Varoufakis' Euro bond proposal seems workable - German obstruction aside. There are plenty of 'self liquidating' projects that could be funded by bonds, starting with a higher capacity European grid and more wind energy. Politics obstructs.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 01:54:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Scenario D (4.00 / 4)

Draghi has done what he can to counter deflationary fiscal policy, but there's only so much he can do.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 02:58:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rumour has it Draghi will be Italy's next PM, after Renzi's eventual inevitable dethroning.

Same tune, different orchestra!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 04:11:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I heard that he might be President replacing Napolitano.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 04:22:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They still have QE left.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Sep 25th, 2014 at 03:03:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I wonder how many of those bad loans are still on the books for the French and German banks?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid on Thu Sep 25th, 2014 at 03:01:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Catalan scenarios (none / 0)

Any known relationship between Autus Mas and the Cuban-American politician Jorge Mas? And just how liberal are Autus Mas' politics?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 01:10:26 PM EST

Re: Catalan scenarios (4.00 / 4)

There is no relation between Artur Mas and Jorge Mas Canosa that I know of. It is a fairly common surname in Catalonia.

Artur Mas is an European-style economic "liberal", i.e., a right-wing liberal or market liberal. He's the leader of the senior partner of the CiU coalition, Convergència, the junior partner Unió being Christian Democrat.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 21st, 2014 at 02:57:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Scotland Model (4.00 / 4)

If we follow the Scotland model, the only constitutional way out of this mess is for separatist parties in Catalonia and elsewhere to gain sufficient seats in the Madrid Parliament to hold the balance of power and force the Government of the day to authorize the holding a referendum. Most probably this would end up offering not full independent statehood, but some form of enhanced devolution/autonomy with more regional tax raising/spending powers.

PSOE, as the party most under threat from separatist trends might be amenable to such a compromise, but would it satisfy anybody and resolve anything? (Was it not Labour who agreed to devolution to head off nationalist sentiment in Scotland, and Conservatives who insisted on a full in/out referendum in the expectation that this would take the independence option off the table "for a generation" and crush nationalist sentiment?).

It didn't quite work out that way in Scotland, and I would now expect the Nationalists to win the vast majority of Scottish seats in Westminster next year giving them the balance of power or at least greatly enhanced influence and a means of keeping the Independence option on the table - especially if there is any backsliding on devolution.

Overall I would expect the EU to make current state boundaries increasingly less important, and paradoxically giving calls for more local/regional autonomy a boost. The gamechanger could be if a member state were to leave the EU, but I see this prospect as increasingly unlikely notwithstanding a resurgence of UKIP voting - now driven also by English resentment at special privileges for Scotland under Devo-Max.

To an outsider this might all look like one big mess, but increasingly I expect this to become "politics as usual" within the EU as the political systems seek and fail to counterbalance the increasing centralization of power and markets within the EU.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 05:10:23 AM EST

Re: Scotland Model (4.00 / 3)

I think that the greater parallel with Scotland is that the ERC has been able to convert frustration with austerity into support for separatism, the logic being that an independent Catalunya would be to the left of Spain as a whole. The factor which distinguishes Spain from Scotland is that you have an insurgent part of the left, in the form of Podemos.

This is key because it provides a direct way to attack the austerity agenda instead of mounting a proxy effort through an independence referendum.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 11:46:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Catalan scenarios (4.00 / 6)

Yet another scenario: 7: Have an approved referendum, lose, and then declare independence anyway. Salmond in today's Scotsman.

ALEX Salmond has raised the prospect of Scotland becoming independent without going through another referendum.
The First Minister, who is due to step down in November, said that a vote like last week's is "only one of a number of routes" that could be taken.
He said that although a referendum was his preferred option, achieving a majority at the Scottish Parliament was another way of reaching his party's goal.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 08:32:36 AM EST

Re: Catalan scenarios (4.00 / 4)

I happened to be in Barcelona for the 11th September. The demonstration was impressive in size. I think Madrid are dreaming if they think they can use physical force to stop a vote. This is not the Ukraine.

I would go with the author of the linked piece - some kind of unauthorised referendum seems most likely. Perhaps Madrid's smart move would be to allow it and then use the legality to ignore it for now.

Of course, the danger for Madrid is that if it is unauthorised then turnout amongst "No" supporters will be lowered. "Yes" are the motivated ones at the moment.

Madrid's best hope is to pressure Mas...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 09:05:52 AM EST

Re: Catalan scenarios (4.00 / 5)

At the General Policy ("State of the Region") debate last week, Artur Mas told the Catalan Parliament that the vote "must be legal" so that its result will be "understood in Madrid and Brussels". ERC has also been toning down their rhetoric. Although ERC leader Oriol Junqueras spoke recently of "civil disobedience", his deputy later said that ERC is not going to advocate civil disobedience because "if may scare people off".

I don't think Rajoy in Madrid is thinking of using "force" to stop a vote. But if an unofficial referendum takes place he won't feel obliged to recognise its result, especially if turnout is limited to pro-independence voters.

The problem is not that Rajoy will use force to stop a referendum, but that if he fails to stop an illegality he may be removed by his own party base and Spanish nationalists will be strengthened in Madrid. I al also worried about the possibility that "uncontrolled" forces may take the defence of Spain's unity into their own hands.

To sum up, I see lots of potential for extremists to do something stupid.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 22nd, 2014 at 02:55:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think that's a reasonable fear. Especially given the right-wing history in Spain. So if Rajoy is removed, who stands to benefit?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2014 at 04:19:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The problem is not that Rajoy will use force to stop a referendum, but that if he fails to stop an illegality he may be removed by his own party base and Spanish nationalists will be strengthened in Madrid. I al also worried about the possibility that "uncontrolled" forces may take the defence of Spain's unity into their own hands.

What is "force"? This matters because depending on how we define it, I think that we get very different answers about the willingness of the Rajoy government to use it.

I know that I'm repeating myself from above, and I don't mean to be pedantic. But ... There is a huge difference between deploying civil guards and sending in the military. I would count both as instances of "force" being employed, but they really represent entirely different outcomes.

I suppose the question I'd ask, is whether you question whether Rajoy is willing to use Civil Guards to prevent a vote. I tend to think that he is willing to do so. Cataluna already has had a series of unofficial referendums. In order to change the status quo, you'd really have to be talking about Mas agreeing to hold an illegal referendum. This seems unlikely.

In the unlikely case that Mas did hold a referendum, I think that this would provide a basis for banning under the 2002 Law of Parties. Do this, and the next time that CiU or ERC meet, they can swoop in to arrest those present. Snag enough setting members of the regional parliament, and you can force a new election. In which neither ERC nor CiU can participate, offering up the prospect of additional PP seats in Catalunya as CiU supporters flow to them.

No matter what bipartidismo is dead in the 2015 national elections. The current spread looks like PP will end up with about 100-120 seats, PSOE with 90-100, Podemos/IU 60-70, and a scattering of others.

While still theoretical that joining of Podemos and IU seems like a strong possibility, and I'd venture that the performance of the party in union is superior to the performance apart in terms of seats, allowing them to rack up 1-2 seats in a number of more rural provinces that they would otherwise lose. On the other side, I think that UpyD and Ciutadans are likely to run together stripping off support for PP. So electoral chaos come 2015, and a good reason for Rajoy to call snap elections. I digress.

On the more immediate issue of the Catalan referendum, my feeling is that Madrid has it under control. Sending in the civil guards, and even invoking the law of parties, would ruffle feathers. And if Madrid acts, any rogue elements from Madrid are silenced. As for some sort of militant action from Catalan nationalists, I just don't buy it. I don't think that Cataluna has been policed as heavily as the Basque Country and Navarra. There isn't a hard core of Catalan militants who are going to hold fast when gassed, and there certainly isn't the entire underground infrastructure you have with Basque nationalists. There is no Catalan ETA, so I just don't see there being a bang. More of a sad whimper.

My guess is that Spain is headed to much mar jar-jar, not the political equivalent of war.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2014 at 01:41:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ManfromMiddletown:

In the unlikely case that Mas did hold a referendum, I think that this would provide a basis for banning under the 2002 Law of Parties. Do this, and the next time that CiU or ERC meet, they can swoop in to arrest those present. Snag enough setting members of the regional parliament, and you can force a new election. In which neither ERC nor CiU can participate, offering up the prospect of additional PP seats in Catalunya as CiU supporters flow to them.

But would arresting those politicians properly be the job of the Mossos or Guardia Civil? Does Rajoy first need to try and order the Mossos and then find them in disobidiance or can he just send in Guardia Civil? And if Guardia Civil is sent in and the Catalan government gets wind of it and calls in the Mossos to defend their meeting, who will the Mossos obey?

(None of these questions are rethorical)

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Sep 23rd, 2014 at 02:48:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Spain is not Uganda (none / 1)

(with apologies to Uganda)

You can't arrest sitting members of a regional parliament except if caught red handed in the commission of a crime, and this would be stretching very thin the definition of crime.

Come on, people, I know we're talking about Spain but this is not a banana republic (yet).

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2014 at 03:31:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spain is not Uganda (none / 1)

I'm not endorsing it, just saying that I think that it's something that Rajoy and the PP are capable of. In their eyes, and I don't think that there has been an effective challenge to the law yet, and they just may view an illegal referendum, one which is treated as binding rather than consultative, as a crime.

I don't think that it will come to this, because there is no way that Mas allows an illegal vote. In the unlikely case he does, this is the equally unbalanced response Rajoy can take. Will the rest of the EU/NATO really speak up for an illegal referendum? Or does illegal referendum sound a shade to close to Crimea for comfort?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2014 at 04:06:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spain is not Uganda (none / 0)

The Political Parties Law may allow the arrest of members of political parties, but it doesn't allow the arrest of sitting parliamentarians which would be unconstitutional (section 71) or contrary to the Catalan statute of Autonomy (which is a law of the Spanish Parliament of equal rank to the Law on Political Parties).

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2014 at 04:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spain is not Uganda (4.00 / 2)

Again, I think it highly unlikely that Mas agrees to hold an illegal referendum (meaning all this discussion is moot), but the article you reference refers to members of the Cortes, not regional parliaments.

Arrests aside, it would provide a basis to ban ERC and CiU, which would lock them out of future parliaments, and start up the sort of "change the name" game that Batasuna got very good at in the last decade.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2014 at 07:19:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spain is not Uganda (none / 1)

Rajoy and the PP are trying to take the legalistic high road in this case. That would be defeated by arresting sitting parliamentarians.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2014 at 04:32:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My suspicion is that this would all take a sort of kabuki theater form with each party acting out their role with little actual passion. It's about sticking to character.

I don't think that there would be an issue with the Guardia doing the leg work rather than Mossos, but that may not be the case. I just don't see active resistance.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Sep 23rd, 2014 at 03:56:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rajoy may be willing to do it - but the consequences could be much uglier than you think, esp. in Barcelona.

I can't see the crowds I passed through on 11th Sept. sitting by idly while the Guardia swoop in. I think rather things would get very ugly very quickly.

Rajoy may be too stupid to see it, but it would be the end of him internationally - and likely domestically.

A "vote" may be "illegal" but it's not the kind of thing you can suppress in this manner without looking like a Fascist.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Sep 24th, 2014 at 04:36:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]