Thu Feb 12th, 2015 at 05:14:04 AM EST
Inspired by the discussion of a Europe after the EU, the war in the Ukraine, and Michel Houellebecq's deplorable new book Soumission, I put myself into alt.history.what-if mode.
Let's start the annals two years from now:
22 May 2017. On the day after the second round of the French presidential election, the winner, Marine Le Pen of the Front National, announced France's exit from the EU.
1 July 2017. After the exit of all Southern European countries from the EU, Great Britain, the BeNeLux countries, Germany, Austria, the Visegrád countries, the Baltic states and the Scandinavian countries agree on re-launching the EU as a free-trade zone. Bulgaria and Romania protest at their exclusion.
28 August 2017. After the latest riots in Dunajská Sreda, the government of Hungary directed an ultimatum at the government of Slovakia to arrest the perpetrators until 1 September.
2 September 2017. Hungarian troops enter Slovakia. Asked by the Slovakian government, the EU and NATO hold emergency summits, which denounce Hungary's aggression in strong words and suspend Hungary's membership in both bodies, but NATO refuses to apply Article 5 against one of their own.
10 October 2017. In the latest round of the diplomatic war between France and Luxembourg regarding tax exemptions, President Le Pen declared that "A small rat shouldn't provoke a big lion for too long! And anyway, our republican tradition precludes us from recognising a principality!" Commentators said Le Pen is trying to deflect attention from the sagging economy with her usual theatrics.
13 October 2017. This morning French troops occupied all government buildings, TV stations and border stations of Luxembourg. The French government later issued a declaration that they were left no other option to fight back against what they termed "Luxembourg's tax war"; and also said that bank accounts will be frozen until a thorough investigation of the books. At an emergency meeting, NATO issued a strongly worded condemnation and suspended France's membership.
20 October 2017. Ignoring protests from other countries, France announced the annexation of Luxembourg. Accordingly, French regular troops are being replaced by the national Gendarmerie.
22 October 2017. In protest of the continuing occupation of Luxembourg, Great Britain's Royal Navy started a tense blockade of France's Atlantic ports from international waters, also re-directing traffic to the North Sea around the British Isles. At the same time, Flanders and Germany closed their borders and disconnected power lines, leading to blackouts in north-eastern Italy.
4 November 2017. According to unconfirmed reports, armed men not in French army uniforms but speaking French shot into a crowd and killed "dozens" during the rounding up of immigrants in Luxembourg.
7 November 2017. Ursula von der Leyen, the Chancellor of Germany, issued a short war declaration this afternoon, saying the slogan "never again" should apply more to genocide than to war. At the same time, German troops overran French occupying troops in Luxembourg in a lightning action. Analysts said von der Leyen found a suitable excuse for an action aimed to unfreeze the Luxembourgian assets of German citizens and companies, and expect a short intervention because the Chancellor fears a quagmire like in southern Slovakia.
8 November 2017. While there are conflicting reports about who shot first, French special forces annihilated a unit of 50 German soldiers in a shoot-out. Later that day, Chancellor Ursula von der Leyen announced the withdrawal of German troops, and took responsibility for the military failure by tendering her resignation, with snap elections to be held "within weeks".
10 November 2017. Today the new government of Spain's Patriotic Front, a splinter of the People's Party which took lead in the polls after the arrest of the entire leadership of the left-wing Podemos on charges of secret collusion with Basque terrorists, sent troops to occupy Gibraltar, saying "Spanish soil should no longer be used in the unfair EU aggression against France".
12 November 2017. Citing national emergency, British Prime Minister George Osbourne announced the end to the blockade of France, and directed the Royal Navy to blockade Spanish ports and the Straits of Gibraltar instead. Analysts breathed a sigh of relief at the end of a confrontation between nuclear powers. Other analysts warned, however, that it was just the nuclear deterrent that forced both governments to act responsibly and avoid actual shooting, and this will be lacking in the conflict with Spain.
14 November 2017. The government of Italy protested what it termed the EU's economic war on Italy, now that its marine trade is blocked after the problems with electricity imports. At the same time, in a strongly worded communique, it called on Slovenia to provide more electricity exports.
3 December 2017. The controversial leader of the AfD party, which won Germany's federal elections in a landslide today, announced Germany's exit from the EU, the re-introduction of draft, and said: "The countries that used the EU to suck Germany's blood will now have to face the consequences!"
10 December 2017. Russia launched a fleet of ten fighter jets in an overflight of Latvia and Lithuania on a route to Kaliningrad District. The planes were forced to the ground with the help of US air force planes stationed in the countries. Analysts assume President Putin wanted to test whether NATO has any teeth left.
1 January 2018. In a surprise move, Germany launched its expected second invasion of Luxembourg during New Year's celebrations, with fireworks explosions masking gun noise.
2 January 2018. A French submarine sank three ships in the mouth of the Elbe river, blocking the port of Hamburg. Other submarines attacked smaller ports. German troops progressed into France beyond the former borders of Luxembourg.
5 January 2018. After the crushing defeat of badly trained German ground troops near Metz, in the "Battle of Eurofighters", the French air force also all but eliminated Germany's. Later that day, France launched air strikes on Frankfurt's banking district, resulting in hundreds of civilian deaths.
7 January 2018. Citing persistent smuggling into Spain, Great Britain expanded its naval blockade to Portuguese ports.