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OMG! Podemos is crashing and burning! (Not)

by rz Mon Jul 20th, 2015 at 10:50:03 AM EST

In recent days I have seen an uptick in comments in how the whole Greek thing is going to bring down Podemos. I think the fact that Syriza was unsuccessful will indeed be a drag on the performance of Podemos and right now it seems unlikely that they will take power in the next election.

Yet, confronted with the truly ugly side of Eurozone government, will people in the crisis countries simply back down?

Maybe, and people have been citing evidence for this on Twitter


So you see, Podemos is going down! Schäuble plan is working!

I found that somewhat difficult to believe.

And here we go: Opinion polling for the Spanish general election, 2015

The newest polls put Podemos at 19%. Which seems consistent with its previous results which indicate that Podemos has a ceiling at about 20%.

The Wikipedia page is actually pretty fantastic. They even provide a nice fit through all the data point which give you a feeling where things are heading.

So again: These are not earth shattering results and most likely some type of Great Coalition will govern Spain very soon, but Podemos will most likely have a decent showing in the Election.  


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So we have one pollster with wild swings and the aggregate polling still only showing the simultaneous fall of Podemos and rise of Ciudadanos during the winter.

I have seen an uptick in comments

On what kind of forums?

BTW, editor's note: I corrected "seams" to "seems" (seems to be a recurring error).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Jul 20th, 2015 at 02:55:00 PM EST
On twitter. Its not a huge topic. But there are many hoping that Podemos goes down now that Syriza was unsuccessful.
by rz on Mon Jul 20th, 2015 at 03:20:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With uptick I mean from zero to a few.
by rz on Mon Jul 20th, 2015 at 03:20:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Koutsomitis is a right-wing hack. But the poll is real. However I do not recall earlier polls by the same pollster and ABC is ideologically motivated to sell a Podemos flop.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 20th, 2015 at 04:06:52 PM EST
Wikipedia has the other polls from that pollster. It has some wild swings.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 20th, 2015 at 04:25:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll check out wikipedia. GAD3 is not a well-known pollster. The best are probably Metroscopia for El País and and GESOP for El Periodico. Also Sigma-2 and Demoscopia. CIS, of course, is the government's own sociological institute.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 21st, 2015 at 12:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The link was in rz's diary. I just realised that the Twitters in the diary mention two polls: one from GAD3 and another from Simple Lógica. The wild swings were in the latter's numbers, GAD3 had only one other poll in the entire time since Podemos's rise.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jul 21st, 2015 at 05:18:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 some_text

The updated fit on Wikipedia shows that Podemos has been pretty constant since the rise of Citizens.

by rz on Tue Jul 21st, 2015 at 06:35:42 AM EST

Poll cherry picking in full force.

by rz on Tue Jul 21st, 2015 at 07:32:00 AM EST
 Spaniens Podemos fällt in Umfragen tief
The german newspaper FAZ is on the case! Of course they will never correct their article and strengthen the parallel reality of German conservatives.
by rz on Tue Jul 21st, 2015 at 10:37:02 AM EST
Might be a blessing in disguise.  Podemos will be able to stay out of the imminent war between Madrid and Barcelona (not football).
by rifek on Sat Aug 1st, 2015 at 12:18:39 PM EST


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