The way I see it EU is in a downward spiral, both economic with ongoing austerity and political with the transfer of power to ECB and eurogroup. Britain leaving either triggers political and economic reform or (more likely) doesn't.

If it doesn't at least Britain has better odds of establishing a decent precedent for leaving, giving countries an option to leave and choose a less insane economic way.

I don't think Britain leaving will change the rise of the far right across Europe, that is more driven by economic factors, primarily the lack of full employment.

The right wing economic policies being pursued by the EU are actually a reflection of the dominance of right wing political parties throughout Europe. If anything, political momentum is currently trending even further right with various extreme nationalist and neo-fascist parties coming to the fore.

The rise of UKIP and the right of the Tory party, if consolidated by a Brexit victory, will reinforce that trend in the UK and the EU.  Every nationalist party in virtually every member state will make the same arguments as UKIP, and seek to game the system to force the EU even further right. Everyone will seek to advantage "their own" at the expense of all "foreigners", even if from another member state.

Free movement of labour will be extremely constrained under the guise of containing largely mythical welfare tourism and strains on national health services etc. Beggar your neighbour economic policies will be pursued and Keynesian policies shunned because many of their benefits "leak out" to neighbouring economies and workers.

The EU as it is may not be great, but it is a damn side better than what will emerge if the Brexit side win.  If anything it has held extreme right wing forces at bay - until now.


Index of Frank's Diaries

All that is Solid - Dear Undecided Voter

I'm a socialist who will be voting Remain this Thursday. But don't let that put you off. I'm not going to patronise you with a bucketload of stats, or insult your intelligence by saying this is right and that's wrong. Nor am I about to spring a persuasive piece on you to nudge you in Remain's direction. I'm interested in helping you make up your own mind by giving you things that, I think, are worth considering and thinking through.

In response to understandable confusion about the costs and benefits of Remaining vs Leaving (and vice versa) a lot of people have expressed a desire for "unbiased facts" provided by someone who hasn't got an agenda. I'm sorry to disappoint, but you'll be searching for that someone in vain. When it comes to political questions, invariably those "expert" on the issue will have an opinion on it and use their knowledge and standing to push that position. Yes, it's frustrating, but you're going to have to think about who you trust the most. And if there isn't anyone, think about why leading advocates for each side push the arguments they favour.

Consider the two key figures in the campaign, David Cameron and Boris Johnson....

Me? I'm voting Remain. simply because, as you say above, the Leave Campaign is all about Johnson, Gove, IDS, Redwood, Farage and all points rightward. There is nothing in any agenda they will propose that I support. I am instinctively opposed to every project they undertake. And let us not forget the dark forces they have unleashed in their wake.  Therefore, I cannot, in conscience, vote leave.

keep to the Fen Causeway

I remained undecided to the very end.

I walked to the polling station, at a local public library, still wrestling with it. I sat down in the library still going over the points. After more than twenty minutes, my wife arrived from dropping the children at school and was surprised to see I still hadn't voted. She hustled me into the booth.

I stood there, looking at the ballot, and lifted my pencil to the Remain box....but then suddenly crossed the X by leave.

And I still wonder if I did the right thing. I may never know for sure.

I don't think any of us are in love with the EU, for the reasons you've listed and more, but folks on the left supporting Leave remind me a bit of Christopher Hitchens supporting the Iraq War "for different reasons than the neocons".  Which is fine, but the neocons didn't care about Hitch's reasons, and they were the ones running the show.

Leave doesn't stand for "ditch the EU and put something more liberal in place".  Leave stands for "kick Cameron out for Mayor Bam-Bam, encourage the rise of xenophobes, and pay more for Volkswagens and French wine".

As for Greece, if anything, it makes it worse.  Among the conservative parties ruling the major EU members, the Tories under Cameron and Osborne were among the few who were at least somewhat supportive of guys like Varoufakis, as I recall.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

First. Britain as it is now is ruled by and for the City and the aristocrats, and its election system, unelected House of Lords and unelected Queen make sure that that doesn't change. The British government is actively destroying both labour rights and human rights. And the media is in the pockets of the ruling class. The situation is almost hopeless. So, do you want to exit or dissolve Britain?

You see, IMHO one of the core (false) assumptions of the whole British EU debate is that every problem of the EU is treated as an existential question for the EU, unlike for any other institutions with major problems.

Second. Even if your second domino scenario (which I see far more likely than your first: you'd need several government changes in the rest-EU for that) doesn't materialise, things can get much worse with a race to the bottom. In fact, among new EU members, there was a race to the bottom in one field (flat tax) after EU accession too, and I'd expect much more without EU regulations to maintain.

Third. I don't think even far-right parties can eliminate virtually all immigration, unless they cause a severe depression. This is a delusion. Numbers may drop but not to zero. Hungary closed off its southern borders with a fence, but it looks like Swiss cheese and there is a new golden age for smugglers. If the majority of voters would be rational, they would see this as government failure; instead, this is opportunity for the government to perpetuate its anti-refugee rhetoric (we'll have a referendum for which they put up posters with the slogan, "Let's tell Brussels so that they understand it, too!").

_{*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

Zelo Street - Vote Remain-The Media Payoff

Here on Zelo Street, it's not just about the serious business of the EU referendum - I've already posted on that - but the lighter side of what has been a singularly acrimonious contest. That acrimony could be reduced significantly, and in some cases, banished forever, if the electorate votes to Remain. How? Here's how;-

Nigel Farage would vanish from the TV screen. No more waking up on Sunday to see Mr Thirsty on The Andy Marr Show (tm) or Peston On Sunday. No more photo-ops with Nige on his third pint of the morning. No more watching the head Kipper swanning around in his most offensive pair of strides. Gone.

All the other UKIP talking heads going off air, too. Like Paul Nuttall doing his Pub-Landlord-Meets-Alexei-Sayle schtick. Like Douglas "Kamikaze" Carswell. Like Roger Helmer. All swept away and replaced by actual reasonable and less boring pundits.

and there's more....

keep to the Fen Causeway