Still, except for the dems, early signs are moderately hopeful. This looks like a clear overreach and a major defeat in week two could set the tone for the rest. Trump still continues his feud with the news media without having an alternative source of legitimacy and parts of the deep state are still hostile. Of course other parts of the security aparatus are going full fascist and defying court orders. Still, could be worse.

The Dems simply need to oppose everything and make 2018 a referendum on Trump.  

Let the 2020 candidates sort out what they're for.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

The suppression of various social sectors will happen mostly as a point of provocation to engender even greater division and find more supposed boogey men for the base. It has worked so far.

_{Schengen is toast!}

I'm reading this as "1933 playbook continues on schedule, pace slightly higher than last time: something between maybe 1.2x and 2x, but without the possibility of a major land war to show up on the horizon."

A Clarifying Moment in American History - Eliot A. Cohen - Atlantic

Precisely because the problem is one of temperament and character, it will not get better. It will get worse, as power intoxicates Trump and those around him. It will probably end in calamity--substantial domestic protest and violence, a breakdown of international economic relationships, the collapse of major alliances, or perhaps one or more new wars (even with China) on top of the ones we already have. It will not be surprising in the slightest if his term ends not in four or in eight years, but sooner, with impeachment or removal under the 25th Amendment. The sooner Americans get used to these likelihoods, the better. ...

For the community of conservative thinkers and experts, and more importantly, conservative politicians, this is a testing time. Either you stand up for your principles and for what you know is decent behavior, or you go down, if not now, then years from now, as a coward or opportunist. Your reputation will never recover, nor should it.

... The biggest split will be between those who draw a line and the power-sick ... [who] fatally compromise their values.

... In the end, however, he will fail. He will fail because however shrewd his tactics are, his strategy is terrible--The New York Times, the CIA, Mexican Americans, and all the others he has attacked are not going away. With every act he makes new enemies for himself and strengthens their commitment; he has his followers, but he gains no new friends. ... He will fail most of all because at the end of the day most Americans, including most of those who voted for him, are decent people who have no desire to live in an American version of Tayyip Erdogan's Turkey, or Viktor Orban's Hungary, or Vladimir Putin's Russia.

What is the first thing fascists or Nazis do when they come into power, the very first thing? They destroy the Left.

Before they go after the Jews, as in Germany, before they go after the liberals and anyone who is not a fascist, before they go after national minorities, they arrest, imprison, torture, and murder the communists, the socialists, and the trade unions. Because they know that in order to pursue their maximal agenda, they need to drain the field of all opposition.

Trump hasn't done that; in fact, he's done just the opposite.

Now you could say that the reason Trump hasn't done that is that there is no real left to do it to. Trump thinks he can do what he's doing now because no one will stop him. I actually think there is something to that argument. And one could see how, from the point of view of a conservative or Republican activist, the last forty years would suggest that you have little to worry about from the left: not from the activist left and certainly not from the Democrats. I think the facts on the ground with regard to the Left has begun to change, slowly, but knowledge of the world is path dependent, and changes like this take a long time to register, particularly when you're in an ideological bubble. Look how long it took Democrats and the Left to realize that Reagan was for real and here to stay.

That is why I don't buy the notion that somehow yesterday's events, with all the opposition at the airports and the imposition of a stay, was part of a grand plan. I think they have no idea what they might be facing from the left. And let's be honest: neither do we.

Whatever the case may be, the point is this: If Trump is a fascist -- I'm dubious, as many of you know -- he may be the most backasswards fascist we've ever seen. Having seized control of the state, he doesn't destroy his opposition in order to pursue his maximal agenda. Instead, he creates an opposition -- what may be shaping up as the largest mass movement this country has seen in fifty years -- by pursuing his maximal agenda first.

How to build an Autocracy

Skip the gag-inducing first couple of paragraphs, and it gets good.

Donald Trump will not set out to build an authoritarian state. His immediate priority seems likely to be to use the presidency to enrich himself. But as he does so, he will need to protect himself from legal risk. Being Trump, he will also inevitably wish to inflict payback on his critics. Construction of an apparatus of impunity and revenge will begin haphazardly and opportunistically. But it will accelerate. It will have to.

If Congress is quiescent, what can Trump do? A better question, perhaps, is what can't he do?

Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, who often articulates Trumpist ideas more candidly than Trump himself might think prudent, offered a sharp lesson in how difficult it will be to enforce laws against an uncooperative president. During a radio roundtable in December, on the topic of whether it would violate anti-nepotism laws to bring Trump's daughter and son-in-law onto the White House staff, Gingrich said: The president "has, frankly, the power of the pardon. It is a totally open power, and he could simply say, `Look, I want them to be my advisers. I pardon them if anybody finds them to have behaved against the rules. Period.' And technically, under the Constitution, he has that level of authority."

That statement is true, and it points to a deeper truth: The United States may be a nation of laws, but the proper functioning of the law depends upon the competence and integrity of those charged with executing it. A president determined to thwart the law in order to protect himself and those in his circle has many means to do so.

I felt and still feel that we HAVE to address the basic problems affecting the US electorate and that entails taking on the power of the very wealthy. I grant that not having a specter of Bolshevism makes this more difficult than it was for FDR, but, now, just perhaps, having on vivid and continual display the results of enabling run-amok right wing populism in a presidential race will, over the next several months, create a clear majority for real change.

Given the inability and lack of real intent on the part of Trump to deal seriously and effectively with the problems affecting most of the electorate, disillusionment amongst many of his supporters will reduce his support. This is already starting. Demographics will continue to favor progressive attitudes as more of Trump's base is dying every day.

And having real, clear progressive goals will be essential to attract so many of the millennials who did not engage in '16. Democratic Party neoliberalism is well past its sell by date. We will never really know how well Sanders might have done had he had the opportunity. But a presidential candidate better than Clinton who addresses the need for change should have the wind at their back in '20.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

Intolerance and anger are entirely appropriate responses to those facts.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

But don't speak on what the far-right types here rejoice at, because we know them better than you.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

I think we can forgive some intemperate language here; the consequences for all could be very real, and political activism isn't all about being cool and analytical and detached. When the time comes, a comprehensive political programme will be drawn up to right some of these wrongs in 2018 and 2020. Right now it is a time for anger.  Let it flow.

Index of Frank's Diaries

Clinton had the second highest vote count in our history.  She may have exceeded Obama had we not allowed widespread voter suppression to go unchecked.  The voting rights act was gutted in 2013 and the estimates of how much impact that had vary, but it's safe to say it most likely impacted the outcome with the razor thin margins that tipped the electoral college. Only 77k spread across three states with active suppression in the cities of those states.

If you care about solving actual problems, the don't peddle narratives that the actual facts contradict.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes