Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.

It's still no deal

by Migeru Fri Dec 7th, 2018 at 09:25:59 PM EST

The European Court of Justice will rule Monday on whether the UK can stop Brexit by unilaterally taking back its article 50 notification. This is one day before Theresa May's withdrawal agreement goes to a vote in the Commons. If the ECJ goes along with its advocate general's opinion last week and rules that unilateral revocation is indeed possible, MPs will vote on the withdrawal agreement knowing that there is definitely an avenue open to stop Brexit. This may motivate remainers more strongly to vote down May's deal, though by the same token it may move hardline leavers to support it. Still, the expectation is that May's deal is doomed anyway. The following is a scenario for Brexit revocation, with the caveat that I don't think it is likely because Labour is not actually for Remain.


Here's the sequence of events I envisage:

  1. ECJ allows unilateral revocation
  2. House of Commons votes down May's deal
  3. House of Commons votes a resolution urging the government to withdraw its Art. 50 notification of intention to withdraw from the EU
  4. PM May refuses. She either resigns, or calls—and loses—a confidence motion
  5. A general election follows, fought on Brexit revocation
  6. A new government is formed favourable to Brexit revocation
  7. The new parliamentary majority votes to reiterate the resolution urging the government to revoke Brexit
  8. The PM notifies the EU Council of Brexit revocation
This is a long shot and could fail at any step, but the perspicacious reader will have noticed the weakest link in the chain is the idea of a general election being fought on Brexit revocation, because neither the Tory party nor the Labour party would campaign to revoke. Jeremy Corbyn is sure to be asked at every turn in the campaign whether he would revoke Brexit if he were PM, and I doubt very much that he would say yes.

Poll
When will reality deviate from the above scenario?
. The ECJ won't allow unilateral revocation 0%
. May's deal will pass the Commons 0%
. There won't be a Commons majority for revocation 41%
. May would win a confidence vote 16%
. The election campaign gives no mandate for Brexit revocation 16%
. The election does not return a Commons majority for revocation 0%
. It will happen more or less as described in the diary 8%
. A meteorite will strike Westminster 16%

Votes: 12
Results | Other Polls
Display:
Thoughts?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Dec 7th, 2018 at 09:27:03 PM EST
I stick with a No Deal coming down on Mar 29, 2019.  Mostly because I think the majority of MPs are psychotic - incapable of dealing with reality.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Fri Dec 7th, 2018 at 09:37:46 PM EST
I think you are missing a vital link in the chain. Neither Labour nor the House of Commons will vote directly for revocation - because "the people voted for Brexit". The most they might do, under certain circumstances, if things get desperate enough, is to vote for holding a second referendum - for some strange reason called "a people's vote". Who else would be voting?

The outcome of a second referendum is anything but certain, and depends a lot on the choice on offer. If it is a choice between May's deal and no Brexit, I think no Brexit will win.

But Labour really want a general election. If they can manage to precipitate one - by winning a vote of no confidence with DUP or Remainer Tory support - they will try to fudge the issue by claiming that:

  1. They will negotiate a better deal than May's deal, and
  2. They will support the holding of a second referendum with a choice between their new, improved deal and no Brexit.

In this way they will hope to keep both their Remainer and Leaver support bases on side, and on that basis, they should win, even if there is widespread skepticism as to whether they could negotiate a better deal. "They couldn't be as bad as that Tory lot"...

Of course there won't really be time to renegotiate May's deal - except perhaps to restrict the Back-stop to N. Ireland as they won't be dependent on the DUP and Corbyn supports a United Ireland in any case. This means the rest of the UK could leave the CUSM any time it wants and negotiate its own trade deals etc. making the deal considerably more palatable. (Nobody other than a few Conservative unionist ideologues gives a shit about N. Ireland anyway).

The EU Council would probably agree an extension of the A. 50 period to facilitate a second referendum, but again the outcome wouldn't be a foregone conclusion. You could have Corbyn campaigning for "his" Brexit deal and the Tories opposing "his" deal - effectively campaigning for Remain - with a claim they can't always trigger A.50 again anyway if the EU doesn't do their bidding.

I think Remain wold probably win - by a narrow margin - which would result in the weird situation of Corbyn losing a key referendum and yet remaining in office "to implement the will of the people". After that most people will probably lose interest and try to pretend none of this really happened...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Dec 7th, 2018 at 11:54:54 PM EST
EitherJeremy Corbyn has not been paying attention or he's hoping the British public hasn't. Labour could do a better Brexit deal. Give us the chance
A new, comprehensive customs union with the EU, with a British say in future trade deals
as a third country? Sorry, no.
Second, a new and strong relationship with the single market that gives us frictionless trade, and the freedom to rebuild our economy and expand our public services - while setting migration policies
cherry-picking the four freedoms? Sorry, no. Presumably also wants codecision on market standards as a third country, like in the point about the customs union.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 07:43:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of Course. One of the beauties of being in opposition is that you can criticise the government while offering only banal platitudes as an alternative - uniting everyone who doesn't like the government's proposals behind you, while keeping the awkward choices that will divide your support base until later when you get into government.

Labour can rightly say it isn't their job to negotiate a deal right now, and anyway the EU will only deal with governments. So their policy statements are, at best, an opening negotiating position, stating their ideal outcome only.

Then when they actually get into to government they can say the conservatives queered the pitch and the EU won't agree to any changes anymore or there isn't time etc. Minor changes can be re-branded as a major improvement or the only possible option in the time available.

So I wouldn't pay too much attention to what Labour are saying now. Corbyn has to keep both the Remainers and Leavers in his potential support base on board. The real world need only intrude once they get into government.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 10:14:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does this also apply to Boris Johnson and Rees-Mogg?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 10:42:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of Course! That's the beauty of being a back-bencher or resigned Minister: You can ride off in high dudgeon all the while proclaiming you would have gotten a much better deal had you been given a chance... or if you are given a chance in future.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 04:57:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Remain wold probably win - by a narrow margin - which would result in the weird situation of Corbyn losing a key referendum and yet remaining in office "to implement the will of the people".

Déjà vu, in a dark mirror. May the milquetoast Remainer did exactly that.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 10:00:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My guess is that step 3 will be to vote to request an extension from the EU. Say six months, to allow enough time for another withdrawal election. During that six months, the UK economy experiences difficulty due to the actions taken by banks and industry to deal with the still-likely no-deal exit, and the hardship trickles down to the factory workers in the midlands, the service workers in London, and the agricultural workers everywhere else. The new exit vote fails 60-40 and the whole wasted 2+ years are written off.

Then step 10. The UK popular press suddenly reforms itself and you never hear from BoJo, Farage, Cameron, Gove, Davis, or Rees-Mogg again.

by asdf on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 12:30:23 AM EST
Why would it take 6 months, and would the UK hold the European Parliament elections in the meantime?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 12:38:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Even six months might not be enough, depending on exactly how it was structured. But something in that sort of range.

The UK would still be part of the EU during this period, so I would think that they would elect new members.

Or, maybe the EU says "sure, we will give you an extension on your idiotic second referendum, but because of the many headaches and distractions all this is causing us, you are out of the EU Parliament as of March, until you make up your mind."

Exactly how it is handled is anybody's guess, but the bottom line in my estimation is that there will be a request for an extension.

by asdf on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 02:40:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You do not to mention invisible GFA Irish border -- the one called "backstop" in Tory talk --prerequisite to the SECOND "transition period" on offer which also stipulates frictionless trade from the Big Island, so Arlene The Paisley is denied the pleasure of becoming a martyr of NI vassalage.

What you restate is the content of the current withdrawal agreement --the option called May's "bad deal" with bad "legal advice"-- that all the gits intends to vote against. They seem to prefer the prerogative to debate deals with WTO members, indefinitely.

It's my impression, virtually no one in the EU cares anymore how UK gov spends free time sorting its dirty laundry, so long as it signs the agreement on the table. Before 29 March --actually 3 March so EP can rubber stamp, AYE or NAYE.

Why is this so difficult to understand, one cannot reason with UK gov lunacy?
Tory MP suggests using possible 'no-deal' food shortages in Ireland to drop the backstop

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 03:21:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In a no-agreement exit, there would be a land border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. That border would require import/export controls, which means walls (President T. can help with them), which means significant economic disruption as well as Troubles.

"Nobody wants that" is not a plan.

by asdf on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 05:40:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No Deal should have been the starting point of the negotiations. But, for reasons of political perception neither side wanted to start out by spelling out what No Deal would mean, because that would pre-judge the outcome of the negotiations or something. And it would have been dismissed as Project Fear anyway. No-deal preparedness documents have only been put out by either side over the past 6 months or so. So everyone has been comparing the successive drafts of the deal to the status quo.

If they had started out from No Deal the question would have been what the EU could offer the UK in exchange for no land border across the island of Ireland, since ultimately only the EU cares about that.

In the context of the withdrawal agreement, which was only supposed to cover the terms of separation, perhaps giving up the "divorce bill" of €40bn or so could have been enough. There don't seem to be any other concession the EU can make in the withdrawal agreement. The political declaration is nonbinding anyway.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:11:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the sticking point is in fact the border in Ireland, and if it is true, as reported, that NI voters would support unification with Ireland, then the No Deal arrangement would be much simpler. Unify Ireland.

A question is whether the EU has a sufficient quantity of warships to patrol the Irish Sea.

by asdf on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:25:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The English nationalists have gone from not giving a rat's arse about Northern Ireland to complaining vociferously about the threat the backstop poses to the constitutional integrity of the UK. At this point, a unification referendum in Northern Ireland would probably cause major unrest in England.

An "obvious" solution to outsiders is to give Northern Ireland a special economic status. But the well has been poisoned.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:47:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seriously? What would you suggest as "compensation" for a backdoor to the EU market that you can literally drive a truck through?

and... Ultimately only the EU cares about no land border in Ireland? You don't agree that it's a constitutional problem for the UK? As well as a question of civil peace?

Or are you being ironic ?<deadpan>

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 10:09:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I haven't seen any cogent explication of the UK constitutional status of the Good Friday Agreement and what that would imply for the UK in case of no deal. That's what happens when you don't actually have a written constitution.

And I'm not being ironic, I'm just working from the observation that Brexit is an English nationalist movement and Northern Ireland is not something little Englanders worry about.

The British are still trying to get out of the backstop. They obviously think a hard border across the island of Ireland is not their problem, only the Irish' problem.

Which is why, as preposterous as it sounds from a single market perspective, yes the EU needs to compensate the UK for the backstop.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 06:57:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
However, since there is nothing that will placate wilfully ignorant Little Englanders there is nothing the EU can offer them.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 09:05:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Good Friday agreement is an international treaty, which the UK cannot alter unilaterally. Neither Ireland nor the EU has to offer anything. On the contrary, if the UK want a border, the concessions must come from them.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 09:19:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does the GFA actually imply no border?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 11:31:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit threatens Good Friday agreement, Irish PM warns | The Guardian - March 14, 2018 |

DUP leader Arlene Foster says scrap the backstop, the EU has guaranteed no hard border ...



Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 01:16:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
outrageous

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 03:31:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, luckily it's a short text... I agree that there are no actual provisions concerning what happens at the border, precisely because agreement was negotiated at a time when both the Republic and the UK were EU members, with no perceived issues in view in respect of remaining so. If the UK had not been a member of the EU at the time, or had been considering leaving it, the GFA would certainly have included explicit references to border issues (or, more likely, would never have been signed).

As far as I know, no parties deny that a hard border would pose problems to the GFA (the Conservative brexiters waffle and say it's a minor problem; the DUP have announced that they are happy to tear up the GFA).

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 02:43:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Hard border" in the first instance is the demarcation of UK territory, a colony, in another sovereign territory which preceded the GFA, an armistice.

Defense of the colony is precisely the UK gov pawn.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 03:28:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not only that but patent disrespct--all around and whenever-- for international treaties and 'international law': neither contracts entered is reliable in its effect, regardless of the TEU dispute.

Some of the people who form our western governments are utterly untrustworthy. That is a difficult pill to swallow.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 03:39:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't see the EU agreeing to a 6 month extension. The interminable Brexit process has already taken 2 and a half years and much of that time was wasted. Perhaps a month or two to allow a referendum and final ratification to take place, but not enough time for a major renegotiation...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 10:18:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If may loses a confidence motion in December there's plenty of time for an election before March.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 07:30:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Plenty of time to re-elect incumbents. That will fix democracy!

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 06:01:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
.... you never hear from BoJo, Farage, Cameron, Gove, Davis, or Rees-Mogg again.

There is no chance of that!. More accurately, there is no chance of a particular wing of the Tory party giving up on their dream of leaving EU and potentially destroying the 'EU project' - "an ever closer union of the peoples of Europe", the first line of the Treaty of Rome. They have been at it for 50 years and are never going to give up.

It took 15 years for the UK to be admitted because the French saw it was the English intention to compromise that plan. It will take as many years to "agree" the future relationship. The one advantage of the Withdrawal Agreement is the Transition Period gives large businesses 21 months, plus potentially up to two years, to organise an orderly relocation of their production facilities out of the UK, while they watch an incompetent set of politicians fail to realise that the difficult negotiations have yet to start.

by oldremainmer48 on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 12:05:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]



Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 01:08:34 AM EST
.... no, it's the DUP that needs throwing under a bus

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 11:09:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know you consider this as a long shot, but this step in particular: "House of Commons votes a resolution urging the government to withdraw its Art. 50 notification" is truly in Hail Mary territory.

I'm not versed in the subtleties of Westminster politics, but I don't see any path leading to A.50 revocation by the Parliament. Not from the Tories who would just split themselves in the process, neither from the Labour whose constituents are still majority Leavers (and so is Corbyn, I understand).

Barring any dramatic development towards A.50 withdrawal before March 29, it's still the EU's deal or no deal, period.

by Bernard on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 11:38:58 AM EST
The thing about Brexit is that all outcomes require dramatic developments.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 12:54:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If all outcomes require dramatic developments, and all outcomes that require dramatic developments are unlikely, perhaps the most likely outcome is kicking the can down the road multiple times. And EU is pretty good at kicking the can down the road.

So are we headed towards multiple extensions (each considered the last)?

by fjallstrom on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 04:12:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A50 extensions plus transition extensions? Could get a decade out of that, maybe more.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 04:44:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You need to get the withdrawal agreement passed first.

The best hope of that is to separate the vote on it from the vote on the political declaration on the future relationship.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 05:08:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't see an Art. 50 extension beyond the European Parliament elections next May.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 05:07:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the EU elections are the new Irish border.

The UK can't stay in beyond the EU elections, because they will have no representation.

Their seats have been re-allocated, there isn't time to allocate a new bunch and have that ratified by all parties.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 11:12:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, if the UK stayed in you could always go back to the previous seat allocation.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 06:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would do so, according to this.

It's as if they've thought about this.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 07:14:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But some parties, like the UKIP might have a hard time justifying having candidates for an organization that England is supposed to have left already....
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 09:23:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Give them hell" is justification enough.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 11:29:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They could even do like in 2009 and elect MEPs under the old distribution and additional "shadow MEPs" under the new. Then you know who got elected under each set of rules.
by fjallstrom on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 09:14:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Except for no deal, which is what happens if nothing else happens.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 05:06:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That requires the extraordinary development of a national government sitting on its hands as its national economy runs off a cliff.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 10:34:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You want the UK government to stop Brexit by executive order? They can't do that even under the ECJ advocate general's reasoning.

And if they ask the council for, say, a.six-week A50 extension the Council will answer "what's the plan?" And the reality is there will be none. The Council may grant that extension just so as not to be seen as precipitating no-deal Brexit. But no deal it will be.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:15:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's arguable: UK constitutional lawyers seem to think that if PM
has power to give A50 notification then implicitly she has the power to withdraw it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:35:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In fact, how else would it be withdrawn? Another consultative referendum?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:36:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Except the Commons won the right to vote to authorise May to give the Art 50 notification, so presumably the Commons must allow the PM to withdraw it?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:38:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017
The Act gave effect to the result of the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum held on 23 June in which 51.9% of voters chose to leave the European Union and also directly follows the decision of the (United Kingdom) Supreme Court on 24 January 2017 in the judicial review case of R (Miller) v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union and was the first major piece of Brexit legislation to be passed by Parliament following the referendum.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:42:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That was a legal mess too. "Presumably" is, apparently, being overworked here. Parliament didn't decide to notify, they gave the PM power to do so.

I think the argument that if Parliament gives the executive the power to do something they're giving implicit power to undo it. Legal Twitter seemed to think this was a reasonable proposition. U.K. constitutional law isn't my speciality. 🤷🏻‍♂️

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:43:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't there a live case seeking to have the courts declare that no legal decision  to leave was ever made? I don't think  it's been laughed out of court but there are so many cases I'm losing track.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:47:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good luck getting the courts to declare the referendum null and void.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:50:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Referendum has no legal weight.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 08:04:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corruption of 2016 referendum processes, recounted in turgid detail by claimants based on EC findings published two years after the fact, partly forms the base for reasoning the referendum result was 'illegal'.

Logically, legal and proper conduct must be established in order to evaluate 'illegal' conduct.

On one hand claimants aver, all referenda are valid to the extent commission satisfies criteria of a proper, legal "poll" (their term) --specified for withdrawal question by an act for that purpose, 2015, to which claimants add normal criteria for election of representatives that they believe applicable to their argument in vacating the result in toto. The results were spoiled by illegal campaign finance.

On the other hand --and here's where the reasoning griding claimants' length apprehension of British democratic tradition gets dodgy-- the act controlling the 2015 referendum is silent on the instrumentality of the vote --force of law compelling or binding gov to the outcome; this, claimants acknowledge. Claimants thereby interpret silence to mean that the PM is not obligated by law to execute the outcome; therefore, PM's decision to do so, regardless of s.1 enacted, is unlawful, and the notice to withdraw invalid.

On the other foot, claimants proposed remedies for this injustice are unlikely to have any immediate effect except suspending UK exit for review by the ECJ at the request of EU functionaries, doubtless.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 08:41:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I nearly forgot, so bemused was I to find UK claimants in teh twitter referring at all to US electoral processes.

Not only do neither USC nor US Constitution provide a "mechanism" called national referendum to approve legislation, every public comment period is ahh "advisory".

Remember this net-neutrality clap trap about the 'fake' comments? Chaotic opposition rather chimes with belated interest in who, for instance, cabinet and White House functionaries advise and "represent".
Mozilla accuses FCC of abdicating ["]its role["], ignoring comments in net neutrality lawsuit
Irrelevant.

US Federal Register advice:The notice and comment process enables anyone to submit a comment on any part of the proposed rule. This process is not like a ballot initiative or an up-or-down bote in a legislature.An agency is not permitted to base its final rule on the number of comments in support of the rule over those in opposition to it.
Yet I note with interest down thread that "advisory" and "not advisory" may hold a different meaning in your parts of republic, denoting "representative democracy".

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 08:05:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
of course they do. Sadly, claimants' argument amounts to, PM has no such authorities. So. Square one.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 08:06:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to the recent ECJ ruling it would seem possible for a government to withdraw Article 50 notification even if it is its intent to re-issue such notification in the near future. This could see May's government through until the mandatory time for new elections. Callous though it may be, when has that stopped Tories? And what would they have to lose? Are they not likely to be massively defeated in the next general election? Perhaps the UK has become addicted to this political drama.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 06:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour's constituents are majority Remainers, by a long way. On the front bench, Corbyn is the only Lexiter ideologue. McDonnell is pragmatic, and Starmer - the biggest brain in the room - is a dedicated Remainer.

Labour have had to sit on the fence to keep the loyalty of xenophobic low-information voters in key marginal constituencies. But in terms of membership leaning, Labour is very definitely a Remain party.

But no one - especially not Corbyn - wants No Deal, so I can certainly see a revocation of A50 by Parliament.

There's also a court case which questions the legal basis of the A50 notification, with a verdict due on Tuesday.

If I were Leave, I would be worried by the questions being asked by the judge. A judgement against A50 would be politically explosive, but equally it would unconscionable to follow the government line without challenging it.

A50 case notes

The first few days of next week are going to be even more interesting than usual.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 04:52:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good luck with that.

Sorry, claimants' argument is not particularly bright on the subjects of authority being contested, namely, the form of government (which may or may not engross parliamentary proceedings) having been adopted by her majesty of the United Kingdom, the meaning of "advisory" or "advice," "intention" and "democracy" --but not a vote recount. hmm. WWUSAD?

Claimants' Skeleton Argument
Defendant's Skeleton Argument
in which "EC" is acronym for UK Electoral Commission and "EU referendum" refers to the British franchise in the kingdoms, Russian meddling and interference notwithstanding.

All futures are possible, Cameron famously quipped.


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 05:58:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know, I know. Articles of construction are so boring and "political".
Article 1, § 9
No bill of attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed.

Does the constitution of the UK have one of these?

archived
5th Amendment
"'Suppose you're right, maybe Marbury v. Madison was wrong,' [Justice Stephen] Breyer said ..."
Article III


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 06:16:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also this locution must have been or is incredibly annoying ...
European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act 2017 ("the 2017 Act")
... to any member of the EU --indeed any fluent English speaker-- who in fact did not elect UK parliamentary members who enacted this legislation governing UK citizens.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 06:53:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suggest you email the Supreme Court with your opinions just in case they make the wrong decision.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 12:54:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dr Who: British EU exit is 'imaginable'
"Clearly all futures for Britain are imaginable. We are in charge of our own destiny, we can make our own choices. I believe the choice we should make is to stay in the European Union, to be members of the single market, to maximise our impact in Europe."


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 07:00:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it's Black Mirror the pigf*cker's been watching too much of

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 11:25:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
maximise our impact in Europe

He's interested in the size and shape of the crater?


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 11:28:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour's constituents are majority Remainers, by a long way.
Yes, especially considering how many young - and new - voters pull for Corbyn.
Two years of fussbudgeting have given time for a significant number of newly eligible voters who were 16 when the referendum went for Brexit.
There's a slim chance Corbyn will change his attitude to leaving if he gets enough political reason to.
With EU neo-liberalism getting seriously contested on 2 fronts (Italy and France) and elections in the spring threatening severe right wing shifts in many EU countries, there may be room for Corbyn to help drag the EU in a more socially equitable, less austere direction, slowing/stopping the Overton window's rightward slide.
If he were to remain a staunch brexiteer, it would indeed be as perversely ironic for him to try fronting a party of Remainers as it is watching May trying to make a fist of a Brexit she doesn't sincerely believe in.
With both the EU and the UK is such a fluid state, both at the end of a political cycle, it's pretty moot what people thought 2 years ago.
The EU, for all its many faults, has has handled the baffling paradoxes of May's elastic red lines, no-plan Brexit, and a plan for no-Brexit, (now there's one to be rolled around the brain palate and savoured!), with dignity and aplomb, in stark contrast to the Tory schizophrenic implosion on ample display, May's attempts at 'businessman bluff' failing so ludicrously. To be fair, Corbyn's fence-sitting on Brexit while slagging off May lacks a certain dignity, even if it is normal oppositional politics-as-usual, there is much to admire in his deservedly forthright antagonism to her heroically stubborn, futile level of incompetence. He shows mettle at challenging her but it would come off much more convincingly if one knew clearly where he was standing on Brexit.

(Keeping your cards close to your chest may be canny politics but soon he will have to come clean, or resign himself to mopping up the mess she (and Cameron) made.


'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 01:57:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But that's what's implied by the ECJ advocate general when he says that revocation, like withdrawal, must follow the constitutional procedures of the member state in question. The Brexit referendum was consultative and May required a Commons resolution authorising the A50 notification of withdrawal. The timing of the ECJ decision is quite possibly intended to enable this. If the decision had taken two or three weeks May would have had time to potentially win the first vote and take the decision to the European Council this month.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Dec 8th, 2018 at 05:04:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit: How the backstop has brought the UK to boiling point - Tony Connelly - RTE
But it can be argued that the logic has been entirely hidden from her own party and drowned out by the cacophony of "taking back control". ...

And when Geoffrey Cox revealed all of this, the House of Commons was either too unprepared - or too blind - to understand that this was the plan all along.

The irony is that the UK-wide customs arrangement is almost universally loathed as something the EU is forcing on the UK, when in fact it was London's invention, and one that it pushed to keep the DUP on board

The one constituency in which Theresa May's ill-fated deal has been going down the best, according to a UK source, is in Northern Ireland.



Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 12:30:37 AM EST
So the whole thing will fail among other things because May has been duplicitous with the British public, the Commons, and her own backbenchers. Though it is not clear that she would have been able to pull through the withdrawal agreement if she had been more open, or that the British polity knows what it wants anyway.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:40:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
or that the British polity knows what it wants anyway.

A Spice Girls Brexit, apparently.

by Bernard on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 08:03:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually that following stanza also feels entirely appropriate:


UK: I'll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
EU: So tell me what you want, what you really, really want
UK: I'll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
EU: So tell me what you want, what you really, really want

UK: If you want my future, forget my past
EU: If you wanna get with me, better make it fast
UK: Now don't go wasting my precious time
EU: Get your act together we could be just fine

by Bjinse on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 09:26:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trying to interpret psycho is a mug's game. I'm telling you. Nothing good will come out of BREXIT for EU even if Tory gov fades to "transition period" v.64 at the 11th hour. Y'all better let it go.

UK PM May expected to delay Brexit vote, demand better deal - Sunday Times 9 Dec

2 days ago the cabinet "rejected suggestion of delay"

in BBC portfolio of weekend yellow sheets


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 03:42:16 AM EST
"The Commons vote on Tuesday will not be delayed, the Brexit Secretary has said, amid growing calls for the PM to go back to Brussels to renegotiate."
by asdf on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 05:48:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brussels has said it won't renegotiate. Not before a Commons vote anyway.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:04:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What does it mean to handbag Brussels? A sexist reference to Margaret Thatcher?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:16:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It does not mean, as one might think, to go begging. The use of that phrase suggests that May will go to Brussels and insist upon what the Brexiteers want.

Oxford Dictionary:

(of a woman) verbally attack or crush (a person or idea) ruthlessly and forcefully.

`I saw her last week and got handbagged for 15 minutes'

by asdf on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In any case, the fact that the British Prime Minister went to the European Council and made an agreement she did not have the domestic backing for is not a problem for the Council but for the PM.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:43:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In rugby the phrase "Hanbags at 5 paces" is a sexist and derisive term to play down a melee where no actual punches are thrown and where everyone is holding everyone else back lest they commit an indiscretion. "Hold me back or I'll kill him!"

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:50:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hat in hand is to go begging. Handbagging is to go swinging.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:44:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is a sexist term to denote a mildly abusive hectoring or attempt to force an outcome, with the undertone that in is the preserve of ineffectual women who expect "gentlemen" to give way when abused in this way, even though being hit by a handbag is rarely fatal or injurious, just not very dignified.

In this context the gentlemen of the European Council are supposed to give the Lady what she needs/wants, for fear of being seen to be ungentlemanly or unreasonable, and with the threat that cool Brittania will not be bestowing  them with any favours in the future should they have the temerity to refuse..

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:46:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
being hit by a handbag is rarely fatal or injurious
A common trope in Spanish cartoons is that the handbag contains a pressing iron.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 07:16:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The sight gag in American folklore is the little old lady (not even a "harridan") who silently and vitorously thwarts attempted robbery ("mugging") by beating the perp ("masher") with her handbag.

purse dog not included

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 08:53:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The gag is dated, to be sure, by the proliferation of concealed and open carry GUN permits.

No one that I've heard has complained about discriminatory practices by SEX in the issue of such permits.

Then again, if I don't subscribe to the appropriate trade rags and am not a card-carrying member of the NRA, how would I know?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 09:06:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bricks and rocks in north England.



I used to be afew. I'm still not many.

by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 08:39:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
NB This was back in the day when the English had a sense of humour.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 08:41:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Problem is, with the current circumstances, Everything that happens to Britain will be seen as self-inflicted.
Choices:
A: Cancel Brexit by parlimentary vote.
B: Take the deal, and become Norway writ large.
C: No deal.
When the UK crashes out in no-deal because it is too politically paralyzed to do anything else, accusing the EU of having been unreasonable will be obviously laughable.
by Thomas on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 11:16:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If the UK crashes with no deal it will be Weimar all over again. The EU will be blamed for inflicting Versailles on the UK and the Remainers will be blamed for stabbing their own country in the back. Nobody outside the UK will take that seriously but the political effects within the UK will be nasty.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 06:47:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but it will be a lot harder for England to invade Poland.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 09:25:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Will it require a dose of Wagner, or of Edward Elgar?

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 08:25:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe not Poland, but wait until Spain starts looking at Gibraltar funny; the Brexiteers are itching for Falklands 2.0
by Bernard on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 05:36:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by das monde on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 12:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No hand bags.
Part of the metaphor is that it involves posh or little old ladies, not young louts...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 04:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Where does Merkel belong?

by das monde on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 05:08:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She would be quite chuffed to be thought so young and glamorous!

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 06:45:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Be careful what you say about our 2024 President.
by asdf on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 09:10:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Will she be old enough by then?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 11:20:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She's 37, already old enough. Just because every other candidate for US President is in his or her 70s doesn't mean that is an absolute requirement.
by asdf on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 02:37:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I didn't realise Merkel designed handbags...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 11:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sun Dec 9th, 2018 at 06:49:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit ruling: UK can cancel decision, EU court says - BBC


The European Court of Justice has ruled the UK can cancel Brexit without the permission of the other 27 EU members.

The ECJ judges ruled this could be done without altering the terms of Britain's membership.

A group of anti-Brexit politicians argued the UK should be able to unilaterally halt Brexit, but they were opposed by the government and EU.

The decision comes a day before MPs are due to vote on Theresa May's deal for leaving the EU.

MPs are already widely expected to reject the proposals during a vote in the House of Commons on Tuesday night.

BBC Brussels correspondent Adam Fleming said the ruling made staying in the EU "a real, viable option" and that may "sway a few MPs" in the way they vote.

Let's see how the scenario unfolds further... Next stop: House of Commons.

by Bjinse on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 09:05:26 AM EST
The noise now is that May is pulling out of the vote tomorrow.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 12:14:38 PM EST
Assuming Parliament allows her to. Perhaps.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 12:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Government sets the business schedule. The Commons could react with a no confidence motion. How many Tories would vote for that?

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 12:58:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Angry Tory rebels and Labour MPs vowed that they would attempt to force the government to hold a vote.
However, a government source says there would be no vote on a business motion to cancel Tuesday's vote. "We are replacing the business with a new statement but it isn't a motion and therefore isn't voteable," the source said.


I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 02:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You are still quite an afew
even if you are no longer a quiet afew

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 04:22:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You've got a limerick coming on, Frank.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 10:26:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Parliament seems to not be taking this very well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46511390

by asdf on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 07:36:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In case it's not obvious to those who may be unfamiliar with the nuances of Brit-speak, when someone like Bercow calls an action "discourteous", what he really means "What the actual fuck do you think you're doing, you insane monster?"
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Dec 10th, 2018 at 09:59:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 06:04:16 PM EST
I though I was just kidding, but Fintan  O'Toole seems to be taking it seriously,
Liechtenstein! As in the mountaintop microstate of 37,877 people. To appreciate the state that the whole Brexit project is likely to arrive at in the next few days, consider this: many of the sensible, decent people in British politics may by the end of this week be hoping to save their country by engineering an alliance with Liechtenstein. And not just an alliance either - what they're hoping for is an arrangement in which Liechtenstein will be an equal partner and will have a significant say in what Britain does in the future. And, to make all of this even more surreal, a say on what happens with the Irish Border.
Maybe we scots get get their approval by crowning Princess Sophie as Queen of Scoland (Jakobite succession), without wating for her father and uncle to die first,
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Dec 11th, 2018 at 10:52:25 PM EST
Britain must revoke notice to quit EU now, former PM John Major says
"Britain, shorn of both these long-standing allies, will be seen by the world as a mid-sized, middle-ranking power that is no longer super-powered by her alliances."

An argument for "cohesion" so homely it might just work!

archived hedged bets
enough to push some to block to block A50 extension (cough - Gibraltar - cough)?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Wed Dec 12th, 2018 at 07:04:52 PM EST
Post-Brexit Gibraltar border could become pawn between UK and Spain, says MEP Girling
96% of Gibraltarians voted Remain. Do you think this would lead to a change of mind of people regarding sovereignty?

No, not in Gibraltar. One of the frustrating things about the discussion in Gibraltar is that it keeps shifting onto the ground of sovereignty. We see a lot of declarations from UK government ministers and the Gibraltarian government saying, `We will never surrender'. Nobody is asking them to. ...

btdt
What they should be saying is that we will not discuss any difference for Gibraltar from the UK.
Let's run it through the mill again anyway
You mean the border could become a hard border?

I hope that the border can remain open, but I fear that post-any-kind-of-Brexit, it will become a pawn in the continuing struggle between the UK and Spain. ...

"co-dependency" -- is that still a thing?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Wed Dec 12th, 2018 at 10:11:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Voter preferences in ranked voting system

Hard Remainers, 25% of voters
Prefer Remain most: 1
Prefer May's plan next: 2
Prefer No deal last: 3

Hard Brexiteers, 25%
R: 3
M: 2
N: 1

Moderate Remainers, 25%
R: 2
M: 1
N: 3

Moderate Brexiteers, 25%
R: 3
M: 1
N: 2

Vote count:
R: 1 * 0.25 = 0.25
M: 2 * 0.25 = 0.50
N: 1 * 0.25 = 0.25

May wins in the first round.

by asdf on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 09:47:59 PM EST
That only works if you assume your Moderate Remainers are actually Brexiters.

In reality Remainers would always prefer 1, 2, 3. Currently that's at least 50% of the population.

The rest would be split maybe 20% Moderate Brexiters (2, 1, 3) and 30% Hard Brexiters (3, 2, 1)  with +/- 10% error bars on those estimates.

Either way Remain wins handily.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Dec 13th, 2018 at 11:10:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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