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Can a no deal Brexit be a good thing?

by Frank Schnittger Sun Sep 2nd, 2018 at 09:29:27 PM EST

Both sides in the Brexit negotiations have been hyping the risk of a no deal Brexit and becoming more explicit in discussing the economic damage it will do. This is to be expected  in the run up to the end of the negotiations, if only to soften up opponents of a deal.

"There is no alternative", Mrs. May can be expected to say if and when negotiators finally come to a deal: The economic consequences of no deal are too awful to contemplate, a point made clear by the publication of the first of 84 studies on the economic impact of a no deal Brexit.

All of this may very well be true, particularly in the short term. But are there longer term benefits to a no deal Brexit than can overcome any short term disadvantages? This is certainly the theory which arch-Brexiteers cling to when opposing the compromises any deal would entail.

They too can be suspected of tactical maneuvering, both to stiffen the resolve of British negotiators to hold out for a better deal, and to absolve themselves of any responsibility when any final, messy, compromise deal is done.

But let us take their objections at face value, for the moment, and examine their claim that a sovereign UK, free of any entanglement with the EU, could be much more successful, economically and politically, on the world stage.


The common wisdom points to a UK in gradual decline, economically and politically, when the UK was last entirely sovereign: before it joined the EU in 1973. Since then it has lost the remains of its empire, its industrial base, and much of its influence on the world stage. Former colonies like India, Pakistan, Australia, and South Africa have become much more independent and influential.

Within the EU, on the other hand, the UK has been able to push for the rapid expansion of the EU eastwards, the creation of the Single Market and Customs Union, and the adoption of English as the working language of key EU institutions. Politically the push for Scottish independence has been contained, and the Northern Ireland  troubles have been brought to an end.

What's not to like, from a UK perspective? Apparently, rather a lot, if the Brexiteers are to be believed. Freed from meddling Brussels bureaucrats, the UK will apparently be able to negotiate much more advantageous trade deals, keep out undesirable aliens, and "take back control" over its own foreign and security policies.

"How has that been going?" The EU may well be inclined to ask, a few years from now.

First of all, it is difficult to see how the UK, a market of 65 Million people, can negotiate more advantageous trade deals than the EU with 450 Million people.  It would take spectacular incompetence on the part of EU trade negotiators for that to be the case - and they have a lot of experience of negotiating trade deals, whereas the UK has none.

Secondly, immigration from within the EU has generally been of highly qualified professionals or hard working eastern Europeans prepared to do manual agricultural jobs Britons have shown little enthusiasm for doing. Their numbers have already been in decline since Brexit was announced, partly because they feel unwelcome, partly because of the decline in Sterling, and partly because their prospects elsewhere are improving with a gradual rise in EU employment levels.

Many UK farmers, employers and the NHS have been sounding the alarm that they cannot sustain output and services without these workers, who have cost the UK little to bring up, educate and train, and who generally contribute more in output and taxes than they cost in terms of the consumption of state health, education and social welfare services.

Thirdly, the UK's foreign policies adventures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Ukraine, Libya, and Syria have not been spectacular successes of late, and Trump shows little inclination to treat the UK as anything other than a colony in future US adventurism. What has the average UK citizen to gain from all of this?

All international forecasters predict significant short/medium term economic losses for the UK, and it is difficult to see how those losses can be made good. The above chart dates from 2016, but a a recent Financial Times analysis suggests that the UK economy has already suffered a Brexit hit of between 1 and 2% of GDP.


However because the UK entered the Brexit negotiations with strong momentum, these reductions have resulted in a slowdown of UK growth relative to its G7 competitors, but not an outright recession. Record employment levels mean that the political impact has, to date, been relatively small.

All of which has meant that the UK has been able to adopt a relatively insouciant approach to the Brexit negotiations to date, up to and including a certain alacrity about the impact of a no deal Brexit if that is the outcome of the negotiations.

This is in spite of economic predictions that estimate the impact of Brexit on long term EU growth of c. 1.5% and anything from 4 to 10% on the UK. Economic predictions don't change voter preferences, felt realities do.

Given these are long term scenarios, spread over many years, the impact will hardly be felt in most EU countries, except for specific sectors. Ireland is the only EU country which suffers a comparable level of damage to the UK, and given Irish growth has been averaging over 5% in recent years, some cooling off may not be an entirely bad thing, even from an Irish perspective.

And while there is some very justified skepticism over Irish GDP figures, especially 2015/6, employment figures suggest a similar trend:

And the unemployment rate amplifies this:

So the real problem for Ireland is less the overall macro effect of a hard Brexit on the Irish economy, but on the specific impacts on our agri-food exports, subject to the highest WTO tariffs, and based in rural communities with few alternative employments. Ireland already suffers from an Urban Rural divide and gross income inequalities between Dublin and city based financial services, Big Pharma, and IT industries and more rural agri-food and service industries.

So the political impact of a hard Brexit on Ireland would be major, and that is before one factors in the impact on the Northern Ireland border and on peace and stability in N. Ireland itself. Ireland will require a special dispensation from the EU to mitigate the worst impact of Brexit and this may include a limited level of continuing free trade across the border for goods not destined for the rest of the EU.

But presuming these intra-EU issues can be managed, what has the EU really got to lose from a hard no deal Brexit? Why would the EU want to encourage UK exports to the EU aided by perhaps a 30% cumulative Sterling devaluation rendering EU competitors un-viable? Why not maximize the opportunity to replace UK exports of goods and services with indigenous EU products and services? Can the EU really afford to continue being dependent on a non-member for the production of vital goods and services?

But most importantly of all, why would the EU want to assist the UK in "making a success of Brexit" when that would undermine the very raison d'être of the EU itself? Whereas the UK Brexiteer case for a no deal Brexit is all bluff and bluster, could it be that the EU case is very real indeed?

British expectations for a deal now appear to be wildly unrealistic, involving, as they do, the undermining of the "four freedoms" underpinning the Single Market. Is the only way of achieving a more realistic deal for the EU to wait a few years until the real effects of a no deal Brexit have worked their way into the UK body politic and expectations have been reduced to a point the EU can concede without damaging it's own internal coherence and stability?

Of course it would seem grossly revangiste for the EU to pursue such a strategy as a first choice, any hint of which EU negotiators have been careful to eschew. But when UK Brexiteers extol the virtues of a no-deal Brexit, they should perhaps be more careful as to what they wish for. A no deal Brexit may very well be what they will get, and their hopes that German car industry executives will come to their aid may be very mistaken indeed.

And with Trump threatening to withdraw from the WTO, the "WTO option" so beloved by hard Brexiteers may not be the "worst case" scenario a no deal Brexit could usher in. If the UK defaults on its €40 Billion exit payment, there may be no incentive for the EU to grant the UK any kind of "most favoured nation" market access at all. No deal doesn't just mean no deal. It could mean very rapidly deteriorating relationships, mutual recriminations, and ultimately, a trade war.

Brexit may be a full frontal attack on everything the EU stands for, but there is no reason why the EU should fulfill UK stereotypes of an ineffectual bureaucracy and fail to fight back. Brexit may very well become the impetus the EU needs to forge a new unity of purpose and collective self interest. That self-interest may not include giving an ex-member and chief critic an easy ride.

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One of the consequences of the totally incompetent UK approach to the Brexit negotiations, is that the EU hasn't really had to show its hand as to what it's ultimate sticking points are. Even hard-line EU pronouncements have appeared rational and reasonable compared to the "all over the shop" flounderings of UK negotiators. The EU27 can now allow the negotiations to fail with relatively few domestic repercussions for their leaders - apart from in Ireland - such has been the popular disillusion with the UK approach.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 2nd, 2018 at 10:08:18 PM EST
One of the difficulties EU negotiators have to face is the possibility that May's government may not be able to command a Commons majority for any kind of deal at all.  Why make painful concessions if they are going to be thrown back in your face? Worse, if they are then taken for granted by whatever Prime Minister comes in to replace May?

A Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn might well take those concessions for granted and the starting point for renewed negotiations and demands for further concessions. A far safer course of action for the EU negotiators would be to make minimal concessions, wait for May's government to fall, and then have some concessions in reserve for when the real negotiations begin with a Prime Minister in a stronger position.

Certainly it is not the job of EU negotiators to keep May in office, and there is nothing worse than negotiating with a weak Prime Minister unable to deliver on her commitments. May's resiling on the Irish backstop deal agreed last December should be a salutary warning in that regard.

Either way, it is difficult to see any deal being passed by the House of Commons while such wildly unrealistic expectations are held by the UK body politic. From an EU perspective, a complete breakdown in negotiations followed by a change of Prime Minister may not be entirely a bad thing, even if that Prime Minister is Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn.

The point being there is little point in negotiating with a Prime Minister who cannot be trusted to deliver on her side of the bargain. This is a question of political power, not personal integrity, and the EU cannot afford to be sentimental in it's choice of a negotiating counterpart.

All of which means that the chance of a no deal Brexit goes up the longer the current fiasco of political divisions in Westminster persists.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 2nd, 2018 at 11:32:52 PM EST
the problem for theresa May is not that there is no majority in Westminster for a properly negotiated and orderly brexit.

Her problem is that it's the wrong sort of majority. Brexit came into existence to hold the alliance that is the Conservative party together. Principally the swivel eyed freetrade fanatics c/w the business first pragmatists. Europe splits this alliance apart because they are fundamentally incompatible, in the US it's probably the point of difference between the modern incarnations of both the GOP and the DNC Democrats. They are able to work together on most issues, but on this issue there can be no harmony: One side must prevail. Just as with Cameron, May is trying to pretend there is a happy position between them and that is the foundation on which she is trying to build her brexit.

And its failing. And the UK will sink with her

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 4th, 2018 at 06:28:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit would boost support for united Ireland, poll finds
The poll carried out for Our Future Our Choice, a campaign group of young people calling for a "people's vote" on the final Brexit deal, found that 52 per cent of people in Northern Ireland would vote for a united Ireland if the United Kingdom quits the EU.

The online poll of 1,199 people from Northern Ireland was conducted by Deltapoll between August 27th and August 30th.

One of the questions posed was this: "Imagine now that the UK decided to leave the EU. Under these circumstances how would you vote in a referendum on the constitutional arrangements of the island of Ireland?"

More than half - 52 per cent - said they would vote for a united Ireland, while 39 per cent said they would vote for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK.

The poll also found that more would vote for a united Ireland in the event of a hard Border. In such circumstances, 56 per cent said they would vote for unity in a Border poll while 40 per cent responded they would vote to remain in the UK.

A total of 94 per cent of those surveyed from a "nationalist heritage" said they would vote for unity in the event of Brexit. However, that nationalist figure dropped to 73 per cent if the UK did not leave the EU.

Among people who described themselves as neither from a nationalist nor a unionist heritage support for a united Ireland dropped from 59 per cent to 23 per cent if the UK stayed in the EU.

---<snip>---

The campaign group held a similar poll in Scotland of 1,022 respondents. There 47 per cent said they would vote for Scottish independence in a future referendum if the UK left the EU as planned while 43 per cent said they would vote to stay in the UK. But if Brexit was stopped, 47 per cent said they would vote for Scotland to stay in the UK and 43 per cent said they would vote for independence.

Emphasis added

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Sep 2nd, 2018 at 11:50:18 PM EST
That's actually pretty mind-blowing.
Northern Irelanders are very aware of being the meat in the sandwich, they are already living in an economically depressed region and they are far more likely to have thought through the impact of Brexit than the average Briton.

Given the extremely sectarian nature of local politics, a surprisingly high (to me) fraction of habitual unionists to change position.

But representative democracy being what it is, that's highly unlikely to result in a majority of elected representatives in favour of Irish unity.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 10:48:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't trust a simple 52/39 split in an opinion poll to deliver a majority in an actual referendum once the sectarian fears are whipped up, but a 56/40 split in the event of a hard border is pretty decisive. And that is before the economic effects of a hard Brexit kick in. I don't think Unionists (and the DUP in particular), had any idea how much a game changer Brexit would be. See Newton Emerson on this...

Don't forget many Unionist farmers also have a lot to lose from Brexit, and any soft unionists with socially liberal attitudes - yes, there are a few...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 11:09:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If May hadn't had a fit of over-confidence and called an election in which she lost her working majority, I'm quite sure Ulster would already have been sold down the river. The conservatives care deeply about the union, except when it gets in the way of something they want. Believe me, they'd sell their grannies for sixpence if they thought it would help their political agenda, Ulster is absolutely disposable.

As it voted heavily to remain in the EU, it would have been a democratic convenience to simply place the EU border down the Irish sea and then carry on regardless. It would certainly have made negotiations a helluva lot easier.

But Theresa had her fit and finds herself tied to the medieval anchor of the DUP, whose only response to any idea of change is no. So, ther she sits, absolutely stuck

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Sep 4th, 2018 at 06:40:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And logically, all the Irish government and the EU Commission have to do is wait for her government to fall and a new one not dependent on the DUP to be formed for that last major roadblock to be lifted. Unfortunately for Theresa May, having tied herself to the DUP, she has little option but to go down with them, or else dump them and throw herself on the mercy of the electorate.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 4th, 2018 at 06:49:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Her Govt will not fall before March, so it's all moot.

She is almost completely isolated within the tory party, which would normally be cause for any number of coups. However, neither side of the party trusts anybody else to bring about a brexit they can live with. An ultra would be unacceptable to the Business firsters and vice versa, so neither side will agitate against her in case the new leader is somebody they cannot accept. So, May is almost untouchable, yet despised by all.

But then again, there's Boris, whose ambition could lead to any form of rebellion. However, I think he'll restrict himself to making her life as difficult as possible until brexit is delivered, then he will launch his broadside.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 07:29:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eh, wouldn't he just run away again? Responsibility doesn't seem to be his thing.
by generic on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 08:44:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, he's a Trumpian figure. He loves being "in charge". He gets to grandstand, be seen and be admired. That's what he thinks is the job of being Prme Minister.

the idea that it's a job requiring 24/7 attention is beyond his grasp. He will govern absently, as Trump does. Spening money on vanity projects of dubious worth.

But, being PM is his Precious, he wants it. He wants very much.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 03:33:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's an interesting twist:

IRELAND IS TO get two more European Parliament seats because of Brexit and Sinn Féin is calling on the Irish government to give them to Northern Ireland.

The call was made in a Sinn Féin submission the Constituency Commission which argues that citizens of the six counties of the north should continue to have representation in the European Parliament.

The majority of voters in Northern Ireland voted for the UK to remain in the EU and the border issue has emerged as one of the key stumbling blocks during Brexit negotiations.

Of course, they believe that they would both be Sinn Fein MEPs. Since you'd have to be an Irish passport holder to vote. Cute!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 10:32:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sinn Fein have all sorts of fancy ideas :
WILL THE UNION Jack ever fly over Leinster House in the scenario of a united Ireland?

Sinn Féin's finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty told RTÉ Raidió na Gaeltachta that he couldn't see the day when that would happen, but added that a discussion was needed to accommodate those of a unionist tradition in a new Ireland.

"We need a conversation about symbolism, for the million people who identify as British and who believe deeply in their identity. In this new Ireland, it is important that those symbols are part of this new Ireland.

[snip]

The party leader Mary Lou McDonald has made similar comments in the recent past, telling this website that she is open to discussions on Ireland rejoining the Commonwealth.

But not NATO, surely?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 10:38:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
NATO is never part of the conversation. NATO is not seen as part of the British Irish relationship. Membership of the Commonwealth, on the other hand, provides the symbolism of a closer relationship with Britain while providing none of the substance, an ideal solution from a republican point of view.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 11:02:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And how would the Republic of Ireland organize an election within N. Ireland? They could give a disproportionate representation in the EP to Donegal, Monaghan and Cavan, the three Ulster counties not in N. Ireland and allow N. Ireland based Irish citizens to register and vote there, but how many would travel to vote there? Even this would run counter to legislation providing for proportionality between representation and resident population. However a nice try by Sinn Fein, to leverage their dominance of N. Ireland nationalist politics, and effectively disenfranchise N. Ireland unionists. Of course the DUP did that all by itself in pursuing a policy of Brexit in the first place..

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Sep 5th, 2018 at 11:10:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Have we reached the acceptance stage of Brexit grief?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 08:41:00 AM EST
Most people got there a long time ago. The calls for a second referendum come almost entirely from within the UK. To be sure,  EU leaders have maintained a formulaic "you are welcome to change your mind" attitude to the UK, but with little expectation that this will happen, and perhaps only to ward off accusations they are acting in a revangiste fashion "to punish the UK".

The question now is what shape Brexit will take, and in that context the odds on a no -deal Brexit have remained high. There has been very little meeting of minds between the UK and EU on how that should play out, and less and less time to resolve the differences. More critically, the political dynamic in Westminster has not changed, making it very difficult to see how any deal will be passed by the Commons.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 09:19:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 09:45:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why would the EU want to encourage UK exports to the EU aided by perhaps a 30% cumulative Sterling devaluation rendering EU competitors un-viable? Why not maximize the opportunity to replace UK exports of goods and services with indigenous EU products and services? Can the EU really afford to continue being dependent on a non-member for the production of vital goods and services?
Isn't this backwards? The eurozone has a 1% current account surplus with the UK. It's the EU that is the net exporter in this relationship, not the UK.

In fact it could be a good thing for the eurozone to lose a bit of its surplus.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 08:50:44 AM EST
I'm presuming that a 30% Sterling devaluation would correct that imbalance over time in any case, absent tariff and non-tariff constraints. My suggestion is more about protecting EU businesses from "competitive devaluation" which would render them unviable.

Ireland is the UK's 8th. largest trading partner and the only EU country with which the UK has a large surplus c. £4.2 Billion in 2015 (Goods not services). The UK therefore has a considerable interest in keeping the Irish border open.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 09:53:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Chequers "plan" (quintessential cherry-picking) has no possible majority in the House of Commons, but more importantly, it was never an acceptable negotiating position for the EU. Barnier spent the weekend comprehensively rubbishing it.

In sum, I don't see any possibility other than a hard Brexit because basically the entire UK political class is hanging out in la-la land.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 03:39:35 PM EST
If the EU offered full membership, waved fees, they get to build a wall and Europe pays for it I'd still give it even odds that the Tories would fail to scrounge up a Commons majority.
by generic on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 03:44:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well, I read Oui's link to the Statement by Michel Barnier following his meeting with Dominic Raab, UK Secretary of State for Exiting the EU. The remaining key to a happy reasonable, "orderly" ending is the same as the fist key.

It is urgent to work on the text of an operational backstop. For that, I asked Dominic and his team to provide us with the data necessary ["geographical indications"] for the technical work which we need to do now on the nature, location and modality of the controls that will be necessary.

This backstop is critical to conclude the negotiations, because as I've already said, without a backstop, there is no agreement.

The EU has already codified procedures for third-country customs clearing and settlement. Tory gov need only co-sign. May could pull a signature out of her ass by 31 October, so long as she's willing to retire graciously to her home in ... Switzerland

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 04:19:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurosceptics agree more with Michel Barnier on Brexit than Theresa May, says Jacob Rees-Mogg
British Eurosceptics agree more with Michel Barnier when it comes to Brexit than they do with Theresa May and her government, Jacob Rees-Mogg said after meeting the EU's chief negotiator in Brussels for the first time.

Mr Rees-Mogg, the influential leader of a group of Eurosceptic Tory MPs, attacked Mrs May's Chequers plan on Monday, which was earlier strongly criticised by Boris Johnson, her former foreign secretary. He was in the Belgian capital as part of the House of Commons Brexit Committee.

"Mr Barnier is, as you would expect, extraordinarily charming," said Mr Rees-Mogg after meeting with Mr Barnier, who had warned that Chequers  could destroy the European project in a German newspaper article on Sunday.

"We found ourselves in considerable agreement that Chequers is absolute rubbish and we should chuck it and have a Canada style trade agreement instead," he said.

"Eurosceptics and Monsieur Barnier are in greater agreement than Eurosceptics and the government or Monsieur Barnier and the government. It is very encouraging," he added.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Sep 3rd, 2018 at 04:40:34 PM EST
Barnier knows there is no possibility of a Norway-style agreement (four freedoms... the British hate freedoms...)

So he's working for an orderly hard Brexit, they can call it "Canada plus" but "crash landing" would be more accurate.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Sep 4th, 2018 at 08:39:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why do you hate our freedoms?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Sep 4th, 2018 at 08:40:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Freedoms are all very well for Brits or Brit expats, but where's the competitive edge when everyone has them?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Sep 4th, 2018 at 11:54:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No.

(This has been another edition of Simple Answers to Simple Questions.)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Thu Sep 6th, 2018 at 12:43:44 AM EST
for our Amurkin friends!! :-)

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Sep 6th, 2018 at 09:51:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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