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A TITANIC success

by Frank Schnittger Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 02:20:34 PM EST

Yours truly and Luis de Sousa have been using the Charge of the Light Brigade as a metaphor for the UK's brainless charge for Brexit. But perhaps it is Boris Johnson himself who came up with the more appropriate metaphor when he said that the UK was going to make "a Titanic Success of Brexit". The metaphor is all the more apt as the Titanic had been built in the famous Harland and Wolff shipyard - a fact that is now commemorated in the Titanic centre in Belfast. The DUP has also been leading the charge towards a Brexit which could well jeopardize the very union between N. Ireland and Great Britain they so claim to cherish.

It is now almost two months since Theresa May agreed her deal with the EU Council and very little has changed or moved on in the meantime as the great ship of state sails inexorably on towards a hard Brexit on 29th. March. If the 117 Tory MPs who voted no-confidence in Theresa May's leadership combine with the DUP, May's deal could well go down by over 200 votes in the House of Commons vote on January 15th.

No prime minister in history would have been subjected to such an emphatic defeat on such a major issue and survived, and yet Theresa May might fight on. Brexiteer Tory MPs effectively handed May a 12 month stay of execution when they precipitated an ill-judged no confidence motion in December and the DUP have said they will continue to vote Confidence in the Government (while threatening to vote down almost all else) for fear of precipitating a general election which Jeremy Corbyn might well win.

So we have a lame duck prime minister at the helm set on a course headed for a hard Brexit and no mechanism to change course, or have we?


Opinion polls have been showing consistent and increasing majorities saying the original referendum result was wrong, that a second referendum should be held and that Remain would win such a vote. But there has as yet been no sea change (see what I did there?) in public attitudes and the margin in favour of Remain has ranged from 3% to 18% in various polls carried out over the past two months. An average margin of 10% for Remain may seem decisive, but the numbers are quite variable and opinion polling has gotten a bad rap in recent years.

What is striking about the polling where three options are presented is that a No deal Brexit has consistently out polled May's negotiated deal. In the most recent You Gov Poll of 25,000 voters only 22%  support May's deal and that rises to only 28% among Leave voters. Remain would win by 63% to 37% if a second referendum offered a choice between Remain and May's deal, but by a lesser but still decisive 58% to 42% if the choice is between Remain and No deal.

What seems clear from these numbers and the Parliamentary arithmetic is that May's deal is dead in the water (ok I'll stop the maritime metaphors now!) and no amount of "clarification" or tweaking around the edges can rescue it. The EU seem to have accepted as much and have offered only a minimalist "Exchange of letters" to provide greater clarity. No major renegotiation will be attempted because nothing the EU is likely to want to give can match the expectations raised by the Brexiteer side.

So what are May's options? The honourable course, suggested by all historical and constitutional precedent is that she should resign. Her policy has failed abjectly to deliver a result acceptable either to the UK parliament or people. But unless the DUP or hard Brexiteers are prepared to risk a general election, there is no way she can be forced out now, as Tory party rules forbid another leadership challenge for 12 months after last month's heave.

Her difficulty is that her resignation now would almost certainly result in the election of a hard Brexiteer as Tory leader and prime minister. Tory party members, who have the right to elect the party leader support a hard no deal Brexit by 57% to 23% for May's deal, with only 15% supporting Remain. Much has been made of how much Corbyn is out of sync with his Remain supporting membership, but it is the Tory membership (average age c. 70) which is increasingly at odds with the population as a whole.

So if May resigns, the outcome will almost certainly be the election of a Boris Johnson style hard Brexiteer as Tory leader and Prime Minister and a hard, no deal Brexit - something to which May seems genuinely opposed. So what other option does she have? She has agreed to meet tomorrow with the over 200 MPs who wrote to her urging her to rule out the no deal option. Boris Johnson, meanwhile, has embraced the no deal option as most closely resembling what the people voted for. This must be news to the many Leave voters who were told that negotiating a good deal with the EU "would be the easiest deal in history".

So a resounding defeat for May's deal in the House of Commons could have the effect of taking her deal off the table and providing the UK with a clear choice between No deal and Remain. I don't believe this government has the authority to make such a choice without popular legitimization, and so a second referendum seems to be the only option other than resignation open to her. But she cannot embrace it unless and until her own negotiated deal has been decisively rejected.

Corbyn will no doubt table a vote of no confidence in the government when May's deal is defeated, but all the indications are that the DUP and Brexiteers will unite behind the government to prevent a general election. It is only after that point that both Corbyn and May will be free to embrace the second referendum option and the latest You Gov poll shows that Labour's vote could decline to an historic low if he fails to support an alternative to May's deal.

The stars are all not yet aligned and there is still plenty of scope for the UK to crash out of the EU in a cliff edge No Deal Brexit either through arrogance, inertia or mishap. But a heavy Commons defeat could take May's deal off the table and clarify the choice facing May, the House of Commons, and the peoples of the UK as a whole. For some it will seem like a national humiliation to call the whole thing off, and for others a merciful release. Either way most people want the issue resolved once and for all sooner rather than later.

May could have to ask the European Council for an extension to the A.50 deadline to enable a second referendum take place but all the indications are the EU Council would provide the necessary unanimous agreement, and might well welcome the opportunity to show some flexibility towards UK demands. Any second referendum campaign is likely to be divisive in the UK, and many will accuse May of being a Remainer who never truly embraced the Brexit cause and perhaps negotiated a deliberately bad deal in order to force a Remain outcome.

But as regular readers here will know, the EU was never going to offer a Brexit deal even remotely as good as full membership and so it shouldn't have been a surprise that any negotiated deal would fall far short of the inflated "have cake and eat it" expectations raised by the Leave campaign. Even if the entire Brexit saga serves only to heighten awareness in the UK of what the EU actually does, as well as giving the EU a much needed opportunity to show solidarity, cohesion and relative competence, then all may not have been in vain.

Not a lot of good came from the sinking of the Titanic, except perhaps a reduction in the hubris of the empire which created it. The establishment which had for so long used the EU as a scapegoat for all manner decisions they had led or assented to could finally be hoist on its own petard. Time for some Brexiteers to walk the plank...

Display:
BrExit is like poison ivy ... the itch is intense. It bothered me just before you put up this diary ...

Perils of a No Deal BrExit

There are many articles and interviews discussing the imminence of PM May's loss of the EU Deal vote in the Commons and the risk of crashing out of the European Union end of March 2019.

No-deal Brexit rehearsal in Kent 'a waste of time' | The Guardian |

Deal or No Deal? The Perils of Extricating the UK from the EU | Atlantic Council |

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 02:30:53 PM EST
Sorry I didn't see your diary beforehand. I am always wary of putting up a diary on such a hot topic because you can't read everything and there is always a risk that you end up regurgitating an argument better put by someone else elsewhere.

But it seemed to me remarkable that so little has happened over Christmas and that attitudes have only hardened in the meantime. May's attempts to scare people into supporting her deal in preference to the chaos of no deal seem to be getting nowhere and only reinforcing the view that it is time to put the whole debacle to a second public vote.

The scary thing is that it is now all down to May and Corbyn to decide how to respond to the defeat of her deal, but also the defeat of a no confidence vote against her government. Why does this prospect not fill me with confidence?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 02:39:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BrExit is like poison ivy

The EU won't know what you're talking about. I know this from personal experience, having returned to Germany from California with a bad case of it. I couldn't get the German doctors to accept my self-diagnosis.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 02:46:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit needs Ivy Lee.
by das monde on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 03:03:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it was supposed to be 100 lorries. As even David Davis quipped, "Chris Grayling can't even organise a proper traffic jam"

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 06:08:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two years ago, a tweet from the Department for International Trade:

Thanks for the offer, mate, but I think I'll pass on this one.

by Bernard on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 07:41:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
V amusing witter thread...
Needless to say, this is all the "brainchild", ie orphan, of Chris Grayling.



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 11:02:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Guardian - John Crace - Failing Grayling is a method loser worthy of an Oscar

Here's a thought. If Chris Grayling didn't exist, would you be able to create him? Would you dare imagine a government minister who was quite so dim and obviously out of his depth? Or would you fear that if you did, no one would believe you?

When Theresa May appointed Grayling as transport secretary, she did so in the belief she was sidelining him into a job in which he could do little damage. Put him in charge of the NHS and half the country might have died within a matter of months, but surely the worst he could do at transport was make a few trains run late or fail to build the odd roundabout outside Kettering.

Wrong. Like all of us, the prime minister severely underestimated Grayling's capacity for failure. He treats failing as a serious piece of living theatre. There are no half measures with our Chris. He is a method loser. A perfectionist who should have won countless Oscars by now.



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 12:45:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Links added are mine - Oui]

Brexit will destroy my late grandfather's dream of an open Irish border

At 16, he nearly died from appendicitis on the floor of a smog-blackened terrace on the Isle of Dogs. He'd come to the shipyards of England to work as a welder - having been unable to ply his trade on the loyalist docklands of Belfast's Harland & Wolff - only to be met by the braying of Cockney foremen who told him, Sorry Paddy. No Blacks, No Dogs, No Irish. He spent the next 15 years going back and forth between England and home, often experiencing horrendous abuse at the hands of his English foremen and the sectarian "B-Specials" police force.

In 1911 the Titanic was launched from the Harland and Wolff shipyard

So Brexit is the 21st century Titanic for Northern Ireland, how ironic!

Yep, the Irish, Belfast and the Titanic ... posted in an earlier dairy  ;)

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.

by Oui on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 02:35:00 PM EST
With some imagination, one could perhaps also draw an analogue between Brexit and the Titanic/Olympic switch theory. Something like how May is putting forward her plan as "Brexit" when it is actually a ploy to get Remain.

Maybe. Requires a lot of imagination.

by asdf on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 03:28:21 PM EST
There has been some discussion as to whether a second referendum could be organised before March 29th., or whether an A.50 extension would be required. If you can organise a general election within 4 weeks, why not a referendum? In practice some debate on the options, wording and organisation of the referendum would be required together with the passing of enabling legislation by both Houses of Parliament. That may not be plain sailing (sorry - another maritime metaphor) if Corbyn and May can't agree, and a majority in Parliament may not be guaranteed without his support.

But assuming the required legislation can be passed before March 29th. I don't see the EU Council having a problem with agreeing an extension. Under the recent ECJ ruling, the UK could always threaten to revoke A.50 until the second referendum can be held. Mig has argued that any A.50 extension could only be until end April as the European elections with revised Parliamentary seat allocations take place in May.

However those seat allocation revisions could be reversed to enable the European elections to take place in the UK as well providing an opportunity for Remainers to demonstrate their numbers in support of pro-remain parties and counter-acting the "EU is undemocratic" narrative so beloved of Leavers. All  parties could also campaign on the basis of policies to reform the EU providing undecideds with an opportunity to argue they are considering voting for Remain on the basis that the EU will engage in a process of reform and not simply for the status quo ante.

Overall I would be optimistic that a second referendum could be carried by remain because the benefits of full membership and the disadvantages of all other options will have become much better known. I am still amazed that no one seems to be challenging Brexiteer memes  that "World Trade Organisation Rules" are a default and good option, when no one has ratified a WTO schedule of tariffs and quotas for the UK and Trump has been riding a coach-and-four through those rules anyway.

Other unchallenged Brexiteer memes include the mad notion that a UK one 6th. the size of the EU could negotiate better trade deals when they have no recent experience or expertise in doing so. The expertise demonstrated in negotiating with the EU should provide a clue. For many in the UK, the outcome of those negotiations have provided a rude awakening and while their pride has been hurt, a more pragmatic streak may well prevail.

Finally much of the original Brexit vote was an anti-establishment and anti-austerity vote which Brexiteers skillfully re-directed against the EU. Even the Daily Mail has softened its cough with a change of editor and there has also been a change of sentiment within the EU surrounding large scale immigration. Ironically anti-immigration voters will have more natural allies within the EU than ever before. The UK's economy has held up relatively well through all the pre-Brexit turmoil and this may have helped shore up the Leave voter preference but there are more and more signs of serious trouble ahead.

The longer this goes on the more older Leave voters are dying off to be replaced by younger, predominately Remain voters. That in itself could be sufficient to swing the vote, but I would be hopeful of a much more emphatic Remain vote than that - approaching the 67% Remain vote in the 1975 referendum - a vote which seems to have been largely forgotten in the current debate.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 04:05:33 PM EST
See my front page note about the legal position on EP elections.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 04:51:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
https://eurotrib1.eurotrib.com/story/2019/1/7/152331/2157

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 01:35:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would a second referendum get more support in Parliament than the Remain vote already gets? Neither May supporters nor no-deal Brexit supporters would want to jeopardize their existing "we already had a vote" argument.
by asdf on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 07:55:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The political dynamic that gave rise to this whole mess is still operational: the Tory Party is fatally spit between Anti/Pro factions.  Cameron - remember him? - had the referendum to silence the Anti faction and then went and lost the damn thing.

The Actual Choices facing the UK are:

  1.  The Deal on Offer -- not going to happen.  

  2.  Retract Article 50 Letter -- not going to happen.  It would destroy the Tory Party

  3.  No Deal

It's possible May is holding off the vote on The Deal on Offer in the hopes that the looming disaster(s) of No Deal will swing votes behind her.  It's more likely May is lost, adrift, out of options, and out of ideas.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 07:13:25 PM EST
Option 3 would also destroy the Tory part.

It is amazing how short-sighted this has made everybody. Huge focus on what miracles of one sort or another might happen in the next 80 days, and no idea of what happens after that.

by asdf on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:11:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
they aren't the least concerned with what happens in 80 days. They're all rich, it's just a gme to them. Just a new variation on the playground larks at Eton. If it all goes wrong, they can retire to their villas in the south of France. Ah, but if they win, they can add another couple of noughts to their fortunes and buy an island in the Caribbean.

They are jostling for advantage day to day, hour to hour. They don't expect Theresa to fall, but need to ensure they are well positioned should she do so.

The people of Britain are nothing to them, nothing

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 08:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK needs to renamed "Fantasy Island."  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Mon Jan 7th, 2019 at 11:09:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]



Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Tue Jan 8th, 2019 at 07:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bercow a hero?
Theresa May will be obliged to present MPs with a new Brexit plan within three days if her current proposal is voted down next week, after a procedural amendment to the plan's progress through the Commons was passed amid chaotic scenes.
The amendment to the business motion for the plan, drawn up by the Conservative former attorney general Dominic Grieve, gives May the deadline to put forward new plans if she loses the vote, as many expect, next Tuesday.
The amendment was passed by 308 votes to 297 following stormy scenes in which a series of Conservative MPs castigated the Speaker, John Bercow, for allowing the amendment.

Allowing the amendment was apparently done against the advice of the High Priests (clerks), and is pretty rare :

Bercow is not the first Speaker to make a unilateral change to the parliamentary rules. But it would be fair to say it doesn't happen often. Experts who know their history point to the power to shut down debate ("a closure motion") which was introduced by Speaker Brand after Irish MPs stopped all progress on a government bill for five days in a row. That was in 1880, approximately 140 years ago.

But rather than acting in a dangerously partisan manner, as some allege, I think he's made a statesmanlike move, in that the government seems to have completely lost its head and not have a clue how to proceed.

Time to take back control, indeed.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Jan 9th, 2019 at 03:46:26 PM EST
providing the UK with a clear choice between No deal and Remain. I don't believe this government has the authority to make such a choice without popular legitimization
I'm not sure why you say this. The Brexit referendum was a choice between leaving the European Union and remaining. Buyer's remorse and the lies of the leave campaign notwithstanding...

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 01:28:30 PM EST
A referendum is a yes or no question, not an option menu, even if you boil it down to just two options. Should the UK accept the EU-proposed deal* yes/no? is a referendum question. No Deal or Remain is not.

The Leave/Remain question has been answered two years ago and putting it back on the balance would validate all the "populists" Europhobic arguments against the EU and its allies not yielding to the people's choice, putting the same vote over again until they get "the right answer". At this point, a Leave/Remain rematch would just increase the civil war mood the Observer is describing.

* Why do we have to call it "May's deal"? Between the Barnier's led EU team and the UK team (let's not name leaders here), we know who has done the bulk of the legwork.

by Bernard on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 02:10:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seems to me that once you get past the point of referendums being a bad idea in the first place (California has this problem with its state constitution), the point of representative government is that the elected government is supposed to work out the details of how to run things. It is not, formally, "May's agreement," it is "the majority party's agreement." Even if 2/3 of the majority party don't like it.

Perhaps someone has invented a system that would work better in delivering a magical solution to Brexit. Or perhaps the problem is that there is no magical solution to be had, regardless of whether it is delivered by the majority party, the opposition party, a bipartisan group, a public-school oligarchy, a dictator, or a madman.

by asdf on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 03:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We're calling it May's deal because it is the deal May brought back from Brussels for ratification by Parliament. Pretty much everyone else has disowned it.

The first referendum on EU membership was held in 1975 and Remain won by 67-33%.

The second  referendum on EU membership was held in 2016 and Leave won by 52-48% on the basis that they were promised they could "have their cake and eat it" and that negotiating new and advantageous trade terms with the EU would be "the easiest deal in history".

We now have the reality of "May's deal" which almost no one seems to want. It is even more unpopular than "no deal" and both, combined, are now less popular than Remain.

So the argument for a third referendum is that the people need to decide do they want May's deal, No deal, or Remain. There is no Brexit which matches the expectations raised by the second referendum, and Parliament cannot decide what to do next.

The argument against a third referendum is that the people decided to Leave, and if Parliament can't agree on May's deal then No deal is the default (and correct) outcome.

But no one told voters in 2016 (or 2017) that that would be the form Brexit would take. No government actually has a mandate for that outcome. So either a general election or a third referendum (or both) is required to break the impasse.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jan 13th, 2019 at 07:44:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A general election would not be fought on the Brexit/Remain point alone, though. It would have the normal mix of Labour and Conservative policy issues mixed in as well. I don't see the point of it.

A referendum would be based on updated information about the Brexit reality, but it's not obvious that the updated information is any more accurate, or the voters more involved or educated, than they were last time around. There would be tremendous squealing if Remain won this time around. I'm not sure about the point of a referendum, either.

Seems to me that the best approach would be a vote on all three of the major and realistic options, Brexit vs May vs Remain. That goes against a few hundred years of voting tradition, though.

My money is on delay, delay, and hope the problem is solved by being overtaken by some other catastrophe. Which seems fairly likely given the US versus the world thing that is also going on. But the delay strategy depends on the EU allowing it...

by asdf on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 12:57:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
colloquially, "kicking the can down the road"?
or "NO-EXIT"
< wipes tears >

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 01:09:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that the uncertainty created by Brexit has resulted in the transfer of quite a lot of economic activity and investment from the UK to the EU, there is an argument that allowing that uncertainty to continue is in the EU's interests.

There is also the argument that allowing the status quo to continue for another few months - with European elections in June, older voters dying off, younger voters joining the rolls, and generally getting everyone bored with the whole Brexit thing could allow the status quo to persist almost indefinitely.

"Kicking the can down the road" has a long and honoured tradition in politics of postponing difficult decisions, allowing general apathy to sink in, and allowing for some quiet deal making behind the scenes for taking some of the bitterness and sting out of the situation - much to the frustration of partisans on both sides.

So if the EC wants to let everyone off the hook, they could "graciously accede" to a UK government request for an A.50 extension, even if there is as yet no clear resolution of the issue. The unanimity requirement could become problematic, however, if some EU Members start asking the question "what are we getting for our forbearance in this matter?"

If unanimous agreement is not forthcoming, the UK government could threaten to revoke A.50, only to invoke it again once they have decided on a clear course of action - in line with the ECJ ruling. That would really piss everyone off, although not much could be done about it. I suspect the EU would then simply move onto the next order of business, and leave the UK to ruminate or smoulder on their options on their own.

Any attempts by the UK to re-open negotiations would be resisted, and it would become simply a case of "take it [May's deal] or leave it, we have other fish to fry". The UK's standing in the EU, and the world, would plummet, but most people in the UK would be oblivious to that. Eventually the political impasse in the UK would resolve itself, one way or another, and a decision would be made to a great yawn of indifference elsewhere. Sometimes it is best for politics to become boring for a whle.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 10:31:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
although in this case I'm not sure kicking the can down the road for several months is an option. Not because the EU wouldn't allow it, but because the UK economy is on the brink of collapse.

Internal and inward investment has ceased, which means that we are stagnating economically. Brexit has sucked all the oxygen out of domestic politics to the extent that NOTHING is being done and everything is decaying.

We've had 30 months of this, I'm not sure how much longer we can keep this going.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 03:05:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All the more reason for the EU to kick the can down the road - if asked?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 10:21:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not if there is no light down the tunnel.

Global Warming - distance between America and Europe is steadily increasing.
by Oui on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 10:48:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
walp, May has started the week dissembling her ass off.

She speaks, again, to simultaneously
reject the EU offer to extend "the negotiating period" (the "NO-BREXIT" option)
and
elect "her deal" (the EU-UK WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT option),
while
surrogates (watch word of the month) flog
the "NO No-Deal" vote by parliament forthcoming.

EU Council will regret this appeasement. I told you (pl.) to let it go. ubn warned.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 10:54:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If unanimous agreement is not forthcoming, the UK government could threaten to revoke A.50, only to invoke it again once they have decided on a clear course of action

Do we really think any PM would do this, given what it'll have done to the previous ones?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jan 14th, 2019 at 03:10:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would really piss everyone off, although not much could be done about it.

Additionally, would it not trigger the EU to change the Article 50 rules to prevent that sort of gyration?

by asdf on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 01:06:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
let's just say I think it would be a good idea if they did.

But the A50 process was designed to be hard as a deterrent to prevent the Greeks from escaping the clutches of the ECB.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 02:15:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It really wasn't. It was just cocked up. It was never intended to be used.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 02:17:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Changing an EU Treaty is not for the faint hearted. It requires unanimous agreement of all EU members and a referendum in some states (such as Ireland) if it involves devolving additional powers onto the EU. The Lisbon Treaty (which includes A.50) was the last time it was tried, and it was a watered down version of the Constitutional Treaty rejected by referenda in France and the Netherlands. Not going to happen any time soon.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jan 15th, 2019 at 09:01:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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