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October Surprises 2020 Edition

by Bernard Fri Oct 2nd, 2020 at 05:10:21 PM EST

I read the news today, oh boy ...

I now give a 1 in 100 chance of a comprehensive FTA between the EU and UK to come into force next January. Perhaps a 20 in 100 chance of such an agreement ever being reached.

Most likely outcomes are either no trade agreement or a lightweight accord of very limited scope.

RTÉ | Brexit talks: Optimism falters ahead of the tunnel

Diplomats are adamant, however, that it will be made crystal clear to London that entering the famous tunnel and concluding an agreement are entirely contingent on the withdrawal of clauses 42-45 of the Bill.


By Friday evening, when Michel Barnier briefed member state officials, it was clear there had been no big breakthrough and the tunnel was still some way off.


Ahead of her phone call today with Boris Johnson, Ursula von der Leyen reportedly told EU leaders that the level-playing field remained a fundamental problem, and that a no deal might even be better than a lopsided deal, with half-baked state aid and level-playing field provisions.

The clock is now truly ticking.

by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Sat Oct 3rd, 2020 at 11:26:51 AM EST
Op-Ed: Think prison labor is a form of slavery? Think again
My prison job made me feel like I was fulfilling my existential duty to society: I was contributing.

Obversely, "Slavery is a form of prison labor".

Conversely, if you are persuaded by this proposition, you likely are one of 80%, 73%, or 71% of Americans oppose reparations for descendants of US slaves.

by Cat on Thu Oct 8th, 2020 at 09:59:39 PM EST

I'll just put this here for future reference. It's corona infections by age group in Berlin. A lot of cases in the 5-15 group while official policy seems to be that kids can't get it.

by generic on Mon Oct 12th, 2020 at 11:36:24 AM EST
In Sweden, the main spread right now seems to be 20-29 year olds.

Kids can get Covid, there are even a few (0-9 year olds) who have died from it in Sweden.

In Sweden there is now the policies from the spring to keep kids at home if they have an symtoms and two extra days after symtoms (and the adult that doesn't go to work gets 80% of lost income), and in addition some regions are now recommending and providing testing on kids from 10 years and up, mainly so they can get back to school without the two extra days if it isn't Covid. Teachers have not been more ill then the average population, so it seems to be working.

by fjallstrom on Tue Oct 13th, 2020 at 09:08:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A young man was shot and killed an hour ago. I called it in when the gun fire ended, when I got to my front window to peak between the curtains. His lifeless body is laying at my front door. I heard first responders pronounce, wounds to the head and chest before the patrol cars and detectives arrived. The yellow tape is wrapped around the corner.

Twenty minutes before this ruckus I was out with my walker for my daily constitutional. God takes care of fools and babes, ibn told. So I am confused.

by Cat on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 07:04:31 PM EST
Stay safe.
by Bernard on Thu Oct 29th, 2020 at 08:38:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This shit has got to end.  

And it could be if the police weren't part of the problem.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 1st, 2020 at 03:02:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
During the last 10 years I have written multiple articles documenting how Cuba has better medical practice and education than the US. To be honest, I have known for a long time that there is an area of medical training where medical students in the US get considerably more training than do those who study in Cuba.


At that moment I understood that, while there are innumerable false accusations regarding Cuban medicine, one thing could be said that is true: students who study medicine in Cuba get a lot less practice in handling gunshot wounds than do those who study in the US.


A final note on the bright side. An American who is thinking of going to medical school in Cuba should not worry about being ill-prepared for treating gunshot wounds. Completing a residency in any US city and working in the Emergency Room during a couple of Friday and Saturday nights will give that student all the practice needed.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Nov 10th, 2020 at 08:12:03 AM EST
by generic on Wed Nov 11th, 2020 at 10:46:31 PM EST
As usual, the USA leaves Russia in the dust.

Biden: 78
Pelosi: 80
McConnell: 78
Supreme court, average: 64

Median age of US population: 38
Mean age of US population: impossible to find because the genius statisticians have redefined "average" to equal "median."

by asdf on Sun Nov 22nd, 2020 at 04:28:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A Spanish study about Covid risk factors during lick down. Doesn't tell us a lot given the limitations of an online survey, but I wonder if a sample where 70% disinfect their shopping is typical? I don't think anyone did that here.

The only paper I found that does a first principle mask study with live covid. Mannequin heads with fitted pumps and masks. Finds that surgical masks lead to about 50% lower virus counts detected, twice that if both source and detector are equipped. A lot less if they use N95s.

A study from Bavaria that finds a six times higher prevalence among kids (1-18) in a diabetics screening program than in official data.

by generic on Thu Nov 19th, 2020 at 02:08:41 PM EST

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